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宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250617
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:47
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025 年 6 月 17 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张,避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿,上 游矿端承压 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:短线看弱 核心逻辑:6 月 13 日以色列向伊朗发动空袭, ...
国投安粮期货股指
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:10
Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250617
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile due to weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures index sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall view is volatile. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. The key factors are the narrowing fluctuations of Treasury bond futures, the easing of market risk - aversion sentiment as the intensity of the Middle - East geopolitical crisis is less likely to escalate, weak credit demand from the real sector despite government bonds supporting social financing data, rising expectations of future monetary policy easing, and the need to focus on the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on Wednesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is volatile, the intraday is slightly bullish, with a core logic of weak macro - economic indicators and rising expectations of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall view is volatile. The driving factors are the narrow - range fluctuations of Treasury bond futures, the easing of market risk - aversion sentiment, weak real - sector credit demand, rising expectations of monetary policy easing, and the need to focus on the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum [5].
以伊战火波及航运 波斯湾油轮运力“大撤退”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 11:05
Core Insights - The ongoing risk assessment of the conflict between Israel and Iran has led some tanker owners and management companies to suspend vessel capacity for Middle Eastern routes, raising concerns about energy export flows in the region [1] - Oil producers and traders attempting to charter tankers for transporting crude and refined oil from the Persian Gulf are facing a shortage of capacity, with some temporary charter agreements not being finalized due to owners refusing to renew contracts [1] - The global oil market will closely monitor the shipping security situation in the Middle East and surrounding waters in the coming weeks, as the region accounts for about one-third of global crude production [1] Shipping Rates and Market Reactions - The benchmark shipping rate for very large crude carriers (VLCC) from the Middle East to China, TD3C, surged to 55-58 WS, a 20%-30% increase from the beginning of the week [2] - Although there were no public quotes on Monday, industry insiders reported that the TD3C rate further increased to around 65 WS [2] - The trading volume of forward freight agreements (FFA), used as a risk hedging tool in the industry, has significantly increased, indicating heightened market risk aversion, with TD3C FFA prices rising to $14 per ton from approximately $11 before the Israeli attacks on Iran [2]
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250616
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 11:00
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 264500 | 810 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 32780 | 80 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 310 | 120 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 23916 | -676 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 2765 | -974 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2260 | -105 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7107 | -265 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 415 | -105 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 6760 | -14 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 265300 | -300 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 265190 | -490 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 1910 | 1760 LME锡升贴水(0- ...
翁富豪:6.16 美联储决议周黄金如何布局?黄金最新操作策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 04:52
Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a new high in gold prices over the past two months [1] - Weak inflation data from the US has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing the attractiveness of gold assets [1] - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests buying gold on a pullback to the 3420-3415 range, with a stop loss at 3407 and a target of 3440-3460 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a critical resistance zone at 3455-3460; failure to break this level may lead to a technical pullback [3] - Key support levels to monitor include 3420, which is a short-term pivot point, and 3410-3405, which is a critical trend support level [3]
中辉有色观点-20250616
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:29
| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | | 以色列空袭伊朗事件升级发酵,主推避险情况,尽管美国数据积极,关税谈判 | | 黄金 强势走高 | 进入关键时期,短期不确定性仍然较多,关注中东问题的严峻程度。长期全球 | | | 尚在秩序重塑途中,黄金战略配置价值高。【790-815】 | | | 白银跟随黄金避险情绪,市场表现上涨,金银比价方面,目前回归正常区间, | | 白银 高位震荡 | 目前白银基本面变化不大,短期白银将交易黄金和基本金属跟随特性,关注 | | | 8700,如果撑不住或再次回到前期区间。【8700-9000】 | | | 中美会谈结束并没有实质性大利好,国内宏观窗口期,中东地缘风险激增,市场对 | | 铜 区间震荡 | 全球经济下行担忧增加,市场避险情绪回升,铜短期反弹,但整体或仍旧承压,重 | | | 新回到震荡区间。中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77800,78800】 | | | 海外地缘风险激增,美联储议息会议临近,市场避险情绪上升,锌止跌反弹, | | 锌 反弹 | 成本支撑下深跌空间或有限,但整体依旧偏弱,短期建议暂时观望,长期看, | ...
中东局势刺激甲醇、碳酸锶、溴素概念股涨停!原油、黄金能冲多高?下周A股将企稳?高手这样看
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-15 09:01
Group 1 - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in WTI crude oil futures, which surged nearly 14%, and COMEX gold, which rose nearly 2% before experiencing a pullback [1] - The stock markets in multiple countries have reacted negatively, with the three major US stock indices closing lower, while sectors such as oil, gold, military industry, and nuclear pollution prevention in the A-share market showed strength [1] - The Middle East situation is expected to have a limited impact on international gold prices, as the market's risk aversion sentiment may suppress gold prices, although a continued depreciation of the US dollar could support gold prices [4][5] Group 2 - The Middle East region accounts for approximately 15% of global methanol production capacity, with Iran being the largest producer, contributing about 8.6% of global capacity in 2023 [4] - The military sector is viewed positively by several analysts, especially with the upcoming 55th Paris Air Show scheduled for June 16-22, 2025, where significant Chinese military aircraft will be showcased [5] - Analysts believe that the impact of the Middle East situation on global stock markets will weaken, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing support from moving averages [5][6]
美国5月通胀预期全面下降,金价企稳反弹
news flash· 2025-06-09 23:49
美国5月通胀预期全面下降,金价企稳反弹 2. 地缘方面,根据新华社报道,伊朗最高国家安全委员会9日发表声明说,若伊朗遭以色列袭击,以色 列的秘密核设施将成为伊朗的打击目标。据美国媒体日前报道,有情报表明以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设 施。由此可见,中东地区的地缘冲突一触即发,市场避险情绪仍较浓,短期金价或维持震荡偏强运行, 关注周三美CPI数据指引。 金十期货特约光大期货点评:6月9日,COMEX黄金止跌企稳,小幅探涨,报收3346.7美元/盎司,涨幅 0.00%。国内SHFE金夜盘低开高走,报收776.66元/克,涨幅0.18%。 1. 当地时间6月9日下午,中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。受到谈判利好预期、关税调低预 期影响,周一美国纽约联储发布的5月最新调查结果显示,5月美国消费者未来通胀预期全面下降,为 2024年来首次,其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大,从4月的3.6%降至3.2%,三年期通胀预期从3.2%降至 3%。五年期通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。通胀预期虽仍高于美联储2%目标,但已明显回落。市场预期在 本周三公布的美国5月CPI将跟随回落,降息预期升温,美债收益率普遍跌超3个基点,略微回吐非农 ...
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-9)-20250609
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:36
交易提示 交易咨询:0571-85165192,85058093 2025 年 6 月 9 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-9) | | | | | 铁矿:本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回升,主流矿山发运量保持平稳回升 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万吨至 | | | | 态势,需求端铁水产量环比回落 0.1 241.8 万吨,连续四周下行, | | | | | | 基本面供需逐步宽松。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库,说明当前 240 的高铁水 | | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹抛空 | 仍旧能驱动港口去库,关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁 | | | | | | 关税至 50%,资金和情绪端表现出偏空,关注市场对关税的消化反应以及 | | | | | | 减产的推进程度,短期受煤焦带动呈现反弹走势,策略上,前期空单建议 | | | | | | 继续持有,情绪性反弹可酌情加仓。 | | | | | | 煤焦:部分煤矿因完成月度生产任务而停产或减产,但炼焦煤整体高供应 | | | | | | 弱需求格局难以缓解。焦煤产量高位,下游补库动力不足,52 ...