Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - This week, the supply change was flat, and downstream industries had a phased restocking. By the end of the month, enterprise inventories decreased rapidly due to assessment plans, but social inventories increased due to imported arrivals. Overall, supply and demand remained loose [6] Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate was 84.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14%; PE weekly output was 661,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries decreased seasonally, with the downstream weighted operating rate at 39.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89% [9] Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory was 444,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.76%; social inventory was 568,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% [9] Upstream and Cost - No specific data provided in the summary part Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.29% month-on-month to 7,392 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.38% month-on-month to 7,351 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis was 41; the (9 - 1) spread was -45 [9]

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【475-495】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 高基差估值偏低，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价偏弱， 但短期下方支撑上升；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可， PDH 开工率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口 库存上升。策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头盘整 成本端油价下跌，现货持稳，基差继续走强。基本面供需双强，近期多数 装置陆续重启，LL 进口毛利提升，预计本周产量继续增加。但农膜旺季即 将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对价格低估值，远月合 约具有抗跌性。策略：关注旺季启动节奏及美俄会谈结果，回调试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头盘整 成本支撑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production scheduling continues to increase. The demand side shows continuous recovery, with continuous increases in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a short - term decrease followed by a medium - term recovery in component production. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' production cut plans, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of demand after the festival and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply was 84,000 tons, a 370% increase from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 1143% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicone inventory is at a low level, and the comprehensive silicone production profit is 479 yuan/ton. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the Xinjiang sample of oxygen - passing 553 production has a loss of 2888 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On August 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 130% to 547,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.81% to 170,050 tons, and the main port inventory decreased by 0.84% to 118,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production have different trends, and the production profit is 9720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 11, the N - type dense material price was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5985 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level in the same period [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51515 - 54455 [9]. 2. Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various contracts and spot prices of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase. The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory also had corresponding changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of various silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were mostly stable, and the production, inventory, and export data of polysilicon and its downstream products also changed [17]. 3. Other Data and Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, component cost trends, cost - sample area trends, and weekly and monthly supply - demand balance trends are presented [19][22][25][30][32][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon and their downstream products are also analyzed [40][45][48][59].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5010 | 17 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 734439 | 52084 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 589321 | -45885 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 368253 | -50661 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 391529 | -26014 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -23276 | -24647 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5125 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4905.38 | -22.31 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5035 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4948.75 | 0 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价( ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations with a minor increase in prices, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a potential for price adjustments in the near future [1] Supply Side - PVC production last week was reported at 466,000 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons or 0.80% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.62%, down by 0.63% [1] Demand Side - The real estate sector is witnessing slow new construction and project progress, leading to a demand lull; enterprises in profiles and pipes are operating at low capacity, primarily focusing on essential purchases, resulting in increased inquiries but limited transactions [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, supply is expected to remain stable while demand gradually recovers, leading to a narrowing supply-demand gap; however, the market is anticipated to experience weak fluctuations in PVC prices due to the restoration of short-selling pressures and significant production profits [1]

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年08月04日-08月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周11合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8490元/吨,周五收盘价为8710元/吨，周涨幅为2.59%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.4万吨，环比增加3.70%。本周样本企业产量为35105万吨,环 比增加7.60%;其中云南样本企业开工率为67.44%,环比增加3.99%,四川样本企业开工率为29.92%,环 比持平,新疆样本企业开工率为52.27%,环比增加9.42%,西北样本企业开工率为76%,环比持平。预计 本月开工率为53.8%,较上月开工率52.61%增加1.19个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7.8万 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | . | 4万吨 ， | 环比有所增加3 | 70% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | | 8万吨 . | 环比增长11 ， | 43% . . | | 需求有所抬升 | . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为23 . | 3万吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal have no obvious contradictions, and the futures price is expected to rise easily and fall hard in the short term [1] - Gold is expected to experience a short - term further correction and show an oscillating and bearish trend [2] - The fundamentals of rebar are marginally weakening, but the futures price still has strong support before the parade [4] - The fundamentals of iron ore have limited bearish drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [5] - The bond market still has upward momentum in the short term, and a strategy of short - selling at important resistance levels is recommended [5] - For live pigs, short - term interval trading for the LH2509 contract or long - term layout of long positions for the LH2511 contract is recommended [6] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6] - Gold and silver may show a divergent trend, with silver in an upward trend [7] - The spot price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7] - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term [8] - The L2601 contract of LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9] - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [10] Group 3: Summaries According to Short - Comments Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate is 74.03%, an increase of 0.34%; daily coke output is 65.10, an increase of 0.29; coke inventory is 69.73, a decrease of 3.89; total coking coal inventory is 987.92, a decrease of 4.81; coking coal available days are 11.4 days, a decrease of 0.11 days [1] - Supply is reduced due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" plan; the Ganqimaodu Port's daily average customs clearance is 1166 vehicles, remaining at a high level; downstream procurement has slowed down, but coal mine inventories continue to decline [1] Gold - The Trump administration will clarify the "misinformation" about gold tariffs; the short - term callback is expected, and it is oscillating and bearish in the long - term due to factors like the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points; steel mill profitability rate is 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points; daily average hot metal output is 240.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.62 tons [4] - Steel mill production restrictions are expected due to the approaching parade; typhoon impact has weakened, demand has recovered, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13712.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.37 tons; daily average port clearance volume is 321.85 tons, an increase of 19.14 tons; the number of ships at ports is 105, an increase of 15 [5] - Overseas mine shipments have decreased, but port arrivals have increased; steel enterprise profitability is at a high level, and short - term production reduction is less likely [5] Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - A number of major foreign - funded projects are progressing steadily, and policies to attract foreign investment are being strengthened; exports are resilient, and counter - cyclical adjustment may be intensified in the second half of the year; liquidity is relatively loose, supporting the bond market [5] Live Pigs - As of August 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.22 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.29%, an increase of 0.11%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 31.43 yuan per head, a decrease of 12.74 yuan per head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 186.91 yuan per head, a decrease of 15.56 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 413.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 9.05 yuan per head [6] - Farmers' price - holding sentiment has emerged after price drops, but terminal demand is weak, and there is no continuous upward momentum [6] Palm Oil - From August 1 to 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the previous month [6] - As the main contract is approaching replacement, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened slightly, and consumption is mainly for rigid demand [6] Silver - On August 11, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September is 88.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11.6% [7] - The US dollar index has a short - term rebound demand, but the downward trend remains, which is beneficial to precious metals; silver is in an upward trend [7] Soybean Meal - Last week's average daily trading volume of soybean meal is 29.664 tons, with spot trading volume of 10.684 tons; this week's average daily trading volume is 51.198 tons, with spot trading volume of 7.092 tons [7] - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of lower near - term prices and higher long - term prices, and the spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2380 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan per ton; China's methanol port sample inventory is 92.55 tons, a weekly increase of 11.71 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 29.37 tons, a weekly decrease of 3.08 tons; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 24.08 tons, a weekly increase of 1.01 tons; methanol capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a weekly decrease of 3.55%; downstream total capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, a weekly increase of 0.85% [8] - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has accumulated significantly, and the market is expected to oscillate [8] Plastic (LLDPE) - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7321 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan per ton; LLDPE weekly output is 30.04 tons, a weekly increase of 9.76%; production enterprise inventory is 18.06 tons, a weekly increase of 26.74%; oil - based daily production profit is - 178 yuan per ton; the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products has increased by 0.5% week - on - week [9] - LLDPE supply is expected to remain at a high level, downstream factory restocking is phased, and the market price is weak [9] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1347 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently; weekly soda ash output is 74.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%; soda ash manufacturer total inventory is 186.51 tons, a weekly increase of 3.86%; float glass operating rate is 75.19%, a weekly increase of 0.19%; the national average price of float glass is 1199 yuan per ton, a day - on - day decrease of 1 yuan per ton; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 6184.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.95% [10] - Float glass production is stable, inventory has increased, and the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and oscillating [10]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-08 一钢厂控产，不锈钢现货成交转好 镍品种 市场分析 2025-08-07日沪镍主力合约2509开于121440元/吨，收于121850元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.97%，当日成交量为 96611手，持仓量为81103手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘高开冲高受阻快速回落后小幅振荡，日盘继续回落，午后走高创近期新高，收阳线。成交量较 上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所减少。菲律宾方面，矿山多处装船出货阶段。下游国内铁厂多降 负荷生产操作，原料采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，印尼地区天气稍有好转，镍矿开采效率提升，印尼镍矿行情走弱。 8月（一期）内贸基准价上涨0.2-0.3美元；内贸升水方面，8月（一期）升水以+24为主流，环比持平，区间+23-25。 现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约50元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，盘面镍价先跌 又涨，精炼镍现货成交偏淡，精炼镍现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2250元/吨，进口镍升水 变化0元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 2450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为20687（-102.0）吨，LME镍 ...