Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various economic indicators and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a focus on upcoming U.S. labor market data that could impact gold's trajectory [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have shown resilience, with a recent increase to approximately $3788.86 per ounce, reflecting a 0.5% rise, despite a strong dollar supported by positive U.S. economic data [1]. - The market is closely monitoring key labor market indicators, including JOLTS job openings and the non-farm payroll report, which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and, consequently, gold prices [2][3]. - The overall outlook for gold remains positive due to strong central bank demand and concerns over U.S. debt and persistent inflation, which are expected to provide a support base for gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis indicates that gold has experienced a strong upward trend, with a six-week consecutive increase, although there are risks of a pullback as it approaches the $3800 psychological level [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on selling during price rebounds around $3785-$3788 and buying on dips near $3750-$3752, with specific stop-loss levels set to manage risk [6][5]. - The market dynamics show a mixed signal across different time frames, indicating a need for careful entry points and risk management in trading strategies [5][6].

Market Performance - On September 26, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 862.50 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.88% from the previous day [1][2] - The opening price for the day was 857.70 CNY per gram, with a high of 865.28 CNY and a low of 857.38 CNY [1][2] Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on interest rate policies, indicating ongoing internal divisions regarding the need for further rate cuts [3] - Recent economic data showed an increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures and GDP growth, leading to a reduced necessity for rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 50.2, remaining above the growth threshold, while the Eurozone's PMI showed a decline [4] Fiscal and Monetary Conditions - The U.S. banking system's reserves fell below $3 trillion for the first time since January 1, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August was reported at $344.79 billion, driven by increased spending and weaker corporate tax revenues [5] - The rising fiscal deficit and national debt, now at $37 trillion, continue to support precious metals [5] Political Developments - Significant political events have heightened global sensitivity, with the U.S. imposing new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and other goods, potentially benefiting gold in the long term [6] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen notable price increases, driven by rising leasing rates in the silver market [7] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are influenced by the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, with recent liquidity releases leading to recoveries in gold, silver, and equities [7] - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to global debt and geopolitical factors, although caution is advised for short-term trading volatility [7]

Core Insights - The pre-market futures are rising ahead of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The PCE Index numbers for August were in line with expectations, showing a month-over-month increase of +0.3% and a year-over-year increase of +2.7% [2][5] - Personal Income and Spending for August exceeded consensus estimates, with Personal Income at +0.4% and Personal Spending at +0.6% [2][3] Economic Indicators - "Real" Spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by +0.3% in August, indicating consumer strength but still below the year-to-date high of +0.7% [3] - Core PCE month-over-month decreased to +0.2%, while year-over-year core PCE remained at +2.9%, slightly below the previous high of +2.95% [4][5] Implications for Monetary Policy - The current PCE data suggests that while inflation is present, it is not out of control, which may influence the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates [6][9] - The Fed is unlikely to implement significant rate cuts, as it views the current rate of 4.00-4.25% as mildly restrictive, aiming for a target inflation rate of 2% [7] Market Expectations - The stock market is expected to react positively to the PCE report, with traders optimistic about the economic indicators [1][9] - A final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is anticipated, with preliminary results showing a decline from previous months but still above earlier lows [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market is experiencing a stagnant performance, with prices fluctuating around $3742 per ounce, unable to maintain the mild upward trend from the previous trading day due to strong U.S. macroeconomic data and mixed expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite external pressure from a strengthening dollar, gold prices are constrained by multiple factors, including cautious market sentiment ahead of the key U.S. inflation data, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and expectations of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Recent global economic uncertainties, such as trade policy adjustments and escalating regional tensions, have enhanced gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset, limiting its price decline [2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the second quarter GDP annual growth rate to 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating strong economic resilience [3] - Durable goods orders in August increased by 2.9%, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding market expectations, while initial jobless claims also saw a decrease [3] - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation pressures and monetary policy tightening are complicating the policy outlook, with current market pricing indicating a less than 90% probability of a rate cut in October and around 60% for December [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, gold prices are at a critical juncture, with key support levels between $3720 and $3715; a break below this range could trigger technical selling and push prices down to $3650 or even $3600 [4] - On the upside, gold faces resistance near $3753-$3754; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the historical high of $3790 set earlier in the week, and sustaining above the $3800 level would bolster confidence in a long-term upward trend for gold [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Funds and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - **Risk Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].

Report Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Other Key Points - Powell pointed out in a speech this week that the policy interest rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible adjustment based on data and economic prospects. Fed officials have a cautious attitude and are divided on subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims tonight, the PCE inflation data on Friday, and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut. FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that further rate cuts may be needed [2] - As of September 19, global gold ETF holdings increased at the fastest pace in three years, with a total gold - holding volume of 3779.4 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022. The net inflows in Q1 and Q2 this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, far exceeding the same period last year [2] - As of September 19, the US's SPDR Gold Shares had the largest annual inflow of gold among global gold ETFs, with an annual increase in gold demand of 122.1 tons and a cumulative holding of about 994.4 tons. China's Huaan Yifu Gold ETF also had a significant inflow, with an annual increase in demand of 28.2 tons and a cumulative holding of about 74.7 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate a strong performance in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 24, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 860.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.03% with a trading volume of 285,621 lots and an open interest of 274,765 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 853.15 CNY per gram, showing a discount of 6.85 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the policy interest rate remains slightly restrictive, allowing the Fed to better respond to potential economic developments [1]. - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts, with an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 75.3% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The preliminary September PMI for the U.S. services sector was reported at 53.9, slightly below expectations, while the manufacturing PMI was at 52, also below prior values [1]. - The latest PMI data suggests that the U.S. economy shows some resilience, which may alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown [3]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Analysts interpret Powell's remarks as potentially opening the door for further rate cuts, maintaining high expectations for U.S. liquidity easing [3]. - Despite the risks of stagflation and geopolitical conflicts, the long-term value of precious metals remains strong, with a continued inclination towards gold in global asset allocation [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Adjusting [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Oscillating [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [5] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Edible oils: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to the real economy [2][3] - The supply of overseas iron ore has declined slightly, but the total global iron ore shipments are still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the demand for iron ore has rebounded [2] - The coal mine shutdown news and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" have jointly promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures [2] - The real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, forming a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half [2] - The overall glass supply remains stable, and the demand has limited growth, with a loose fundamental pattern [2] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases, and the price is expected to remain bullish [3] - The supply of logs is tightening, and the cost support is weakening, with the price expected to range-bound [5] - The pulp price is expected to consolidate at the bottom, and the offset paper market is bearish [5] - The supply pressure of edible oils is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [5] - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5] - The average trading weight of live pigs is rising, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [7] - The natural rubber price is expected to oscillate widely, and the PX and PTA prices will follow the cost fluctuations [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.483 million tons to 33.248 million tons, but the 47-port iron ore arrivals increased by 3.581 million tons to 27.504 million tons. The daily average pig iron output rebounded slightly, driving up the demand for iron ore. The steel mills' profit ratio declined, but the motivation for active production cuts was still insufficient, with inventory replenishment expected before the festival. The iron ore 2601 contract broke through the previous high and showed an oscillating and bullish trend [2] - Coking coal and coke: The shutdown news of coal mines and the increasing expectation of "anti-involution" promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rebounded with the arrival of the peak season. An individual coking enterprise in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of coke price increase. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar: The Fed's interest rate cut and the coal mine shutdown news, along with the "anti-involution" expectation, promoted the rebound of coking coal and coke, which in turn drove up the rebar price. The output of finished steel decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a relatively high level. The total demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the rebar 2601 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with attention paid to the inventory performance [2] - Glass: The glass supply remained stable, and the demand had limited growth. The downstream deep-processing factory orders increased slightly, but the demand increment was limited. The coal-to-gas conversion in Shahe may cause short-term fluctuations in the market. The key for the 01 contract lies in the cold repair path, and attention should be paid to the pre-festival inventory replenishment [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indexes showed different performances. The computer hardware and precious metals sectors had capital inflows, while the catering and tourism and soft drink sectors had capital outflows. The market rebounded, and it is recommended to control the risk preference and maintain the current long position of stock indexes [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond and FR007 increased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the market interest rate fluctuated. The Treasury bond price showed a weakening trend, and it is recommended to hold a light long position [3] - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the price is affected by central bank gold purchases, currency, finance, and geopolitical factors. The interest rate policy of the Fed and geopolitical conflicts are the main influencing factors. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish, with attention paid to Powell's speech and PCE data [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average port shipments of logs decreased, and the supply from New Zealand declined. The port inventory decreased, and the cost support weakened. The price is expected to range-bound [5] - Pulp: The spot market price of pulp was stable, and the cost support increased. However, the papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the paper mills' inventory pressure was high, with the price expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price of offset paper declined. The production was relatively stable, but it was in the downstream seasonal off-season, and the demand was poor. The industry was in a stage of overcapacity, and the price was expected to be bearish [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil increased slightly in August, and the inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons. The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil increased, and the price of edible oils is expected to oscillate widely, with attention paid to the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5] - Soybean meal: The US soybean yield increased, but the export demand was weak, and the domestic supply was abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with attention paid to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [5] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The terminal consumption market was sluggish, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate declined. The price is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, with the support of the pre-festival inventory replenishment demand [7] Soft Commodities Industry - Natural rubber: The supply pressure in Yunnan decreased, and the production in Hainan was lower than expected. The demand for tires increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: The PX supply was in surplus, and the price followed the oil price fluctuations. The PTA supply and demand both increased, but the overall supply-demand margin weakened, and the price followed the cost fluctuations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It also presents forecasts on global and regional soybean production, trade, and consumption, as well as the impact of weather on crops [1][7]. Summary by Section 01 & 02 Spot Market - Spot prices and price changes of various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products are presented, along with currency exchange rates and basis data for some futures contracts [1][2]. - For example, the closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil for December is 4439.00, with a previous -day decline of 0.89% and an overnight decline of 0.11% [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook for major soybean - producing states in the US from September 23 - 27 shows higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation near to below the median in the Midwest [3]. - The high temperature in the Midwest and rainfall in the west are unfavorable for crop maturity and harvesting, but may help reduce drought and supply water to the Mississippi River [5]. - International Supply and Demand - - IGC predicts that the global soybean production in 2025/26 will be basically flat year - on - year at 4.29 billion tons, and the trade volume in 2024/25 will increase by 2 million tons month - on - month [7]. - As of September 16, about 36% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 22% the previous week [8]. - As of September 11, US soybean export sales increased by 925,300 tons, meeting expectations, and the export shipment volume increased by 31% compared to the previous week [8]. - CONAB estimates that Brazil's soybean production in 2025/26 will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons [10]. - The EU and UK's rapeseed production in 2025 is expected to be 21.6 million tons, higher than the June forecast [10]. - Domestic Supply and Demand - - On September 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 380 tons (2%) compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On September 18, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased by 99,200 tons compared to the previous day, and the national oil - mill operating rate decreased by 1.13% [14]. - China's August imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the cumulative imports from January - August showed different trends [14]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9% [17]. - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on November 5 regarding the legality of Trump's large - scale global tariff collection [17]. - Domestic News - - On September 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1085, up 72 points (yuan depreciation) [19]. - On September 18, the Chinese central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On September 18, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 10.858 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.128 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 16.653 billion yuan and bond futures had a net inflow of 390 million yuan [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The U.S. significantly revised down its annual non-farm employment data, with a reduction of 910,000 jobs compared to initial estimates, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [3] - The average monthly job addition was adjusted from 147,000 to approximately 70,000, indicating a more sluggish job market than previously reported [3] - The largest downward revisions occurred in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and retail sectors, each losing over 100,000 jobs, suggesting a contraction in consumer spending [5] Group 2 - Analysts attribute the discrepancies in employment data to flaws in the "birth-death model" used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which failed to accurately reflect the rapid changes in new and old businesses post-COVID-19 [3] - Following the release of the revised employment data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased from approximately 89% to nearly 94% [7] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, indicated that the bank had already anticipated a weakening U.S. economy prior to the data release [7]