Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding interest rate outlook, primarily driven by differing expectations on the impact of tariff policies on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain highly vigilant about potential inflation pressures from the Trump administration's tariff policies [3]. - The minutes indicate limited support for short-term rate cuts, with some officials believing there is no need for any cuts this year [3]. Divergent Opinions Among Officials - The meeting minutes outline three main factions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths: 1. The mainstream view anticipates rate cuts later in the year, excluding July. 2. A faction advocates for maintaining current rates throughout the year. 3. A minority believes immediate rate cuts should be enacted in the next meeting [3][4]. Economic Outlook and Implications - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with updated dot plots indicating that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by year-end, while 7 predict no cuts throughout 2025 [4]. - The differing views stem from varying assessments of the economic situation, with some officials believing moderate cuts could stabilize growth amid slowing sectors, while others are concerned about the inflationary effects of tariffs and the risks of premature cuts [4]. Market Impact - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve increase uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming economic data and public statements from officials [4]. - The tension between Trump's pressure and the Federal Reserve's independent judgment complicates monetary policy formulation, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation as core considerations [4].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve's current interest rate policy, claiming it is at least 3 percentage points too high, resulting in an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] Group 1 - Trump is considering appointing a "shadow chairman" to the Federal Reserve before Chairman Powell's term ends next year to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates [1]

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - The silver price closed at $36.74 per ounce on July 8, with a daily high of $36.86 and a low of $36.27, indicating stability in the market [1] - As of July 7, the silver ETF holdings increased by 66.41 tons, reaching a total of 14,935.15 tons, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The total value of silver ETF holdings on July 8 was approximately $17.66 billion, showing a rise from the previous day's value of about $17.32 billion [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The increase in silver ETF holdings suggests a growing buying interest, which is likely to support silver prices [2] - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's performance may influence market sentiment, particularly concerning interest rates and monetary policy [2][3] - Trump's criticism of Powell's decision to maintain interest rates could lead to expectations of a more dovish monetary policy, which historically tends to benefit precious metals like silver [2][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The silver market opened at $36.74, experienced a pullback to $36.636, and then rallied to a high of $36.86 before closing at $36.74, forming a long lower shadow candlestick pattern [4] - The price action indicates potential bullish momentum, as the market closed near its opening price after testing lower levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that if Powell misled Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation project, he should resign immediately. Trump has expressed a desire for a successor who supports interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Criticism of Powell - Trump labeled Powell as "terrible" and indicated that misleading Congress would be a valid reason for resignation [1]. - Trump has previously stated that Powell has been slow to adjust interest rates during his presidency, contrasting this with Powell's actions during President Biden's term [1]. - Trump has called for an investigation into Powell's testimony regarding the renovation project, echoing sentiments from other officials like FHFA Director Bill Pulte [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% since December of the previous year, with no immediate plans for adjustment [3]. - Powell indicated that uncertainty from tariffs has influenced the Fed's decision-making, suggesting that rate cuts may have been possible under different circumstances [3]. - Trump has expressed intentions to appoint a successor who favors interest rate cuts, which could challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [2].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has called for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign immediately if he misled Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation project [1] Group 1: Criticism of Powell - Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, labeling his performance as "terrible" and emphasizing that misleading Congress would warrant immediate resignation [1] - Trump has expressed a desire for a successor who would support interest rate cuts, indicating dissatisfaction with Powell's current stance on maintaining rates [1] Group 2: Renovation Controversy - Recent media reports have highlighted issues with the Fed's headquarters renovation, including cost overruns and luxurious features [1] - Powell defended himself during a Senate hearing, claiming that the reports contained "misleading and false" information [1]

Group 1 - Recent gold prices have surpassed $3,344 per ounce amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [2] - A significant price disparity exists in the domestic market, with retail gold prices reaching 1,005 CNY per gram compared to a wholesale price of 756 CNY per gram, indicating a potential market imbalance [2] - Historical patterns suggest that July could be a pivotal month for gold prices, reminiscent of last year's fluctuations between $3,200 and $3,300 per ounce before a breakout [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is a critical factor, with a recent employment report causing a drop in expectations for a September rate cut from 78% to 65%, which could impact gold prices significantly [4] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with potential for a "black swan" event that could cause gold prices to spike to $3,400 per ounce if Israel engages in ground operations [4] - Technical analysis indicates that the $3,400 per ounce level is a focal point, with previous attempts to breach this level failing, and a drop below $3,280 could lead to further declines [4] Group 3 - Institutional investors are adjusting their strategies, with HSBC raising its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce while advising clients to reduce positions above $3,350 per ounce [5] - Market participants are employing varied strategies, with some investing weekly to maintain an average cost below 760 CNY per gram, while others engage in high-frequency trading within specific price ranges [5] - The upcoming U.S. economic data is seen as a potential "ticking time bomb" for gold prices, with a core CPI below 2.8% possibly driving prices to $3,500 per ounce, while strong GDP growth could trigger a sell-off [5]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a strong performance, with all three major indices closing higher on July 3, 2023. The Nasdaq rose by 1.02%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, and the Dow Jones gained 0.77% [1] - The S&P 500 index reached its seventh historical closing high of the year, while the Nasdaq achieved its fourth historical closing high of the year [1] Technology Sector - Major US technology stocks saw a collective increase, with Nvidia rising over 1.3% to reach a historical high, peaking at a market capitalization of $3.92 trillion during intraday trading [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stock Brain Rejuvenation Technology experienced a significant surge, with intraday gains exceeding 170%, leading to multiple trading halts. The stock has increased by 21,300% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the US market for 2025 [3] Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data has alleviated concerns regarding a downturn in the US economy. In June, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, significantly surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [6] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June reported a value of 50.8, above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector. The new orders index also exceeded expectations, coming in at 51.3 [7] - Industrial orders in May saw a month-on-month increase of 8.2%, marking the largest growth since 2014, while factory orders excluding defense rose by 7.5% [7] Bond Market - The strong employment report has led to an increase in US Treasury yields, with the market now anticipating a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting [7][8] Oil Market - International oil prices experienced a sharp decline on the evening of July 3, with both WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping over 1% at one point before recovering slightly [11] - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against multiple entities involved in facilitating Iranian oil trade, which may impact oil market dynamics [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by President Trump's tariff policies, which have created significant economic uncertainty and impacted inflation forecasts [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the central bank has refrained from cutting interest rates this year primarily due to the uncertainties brought about by the government's changing tariff agenda [4][5]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed's approach is data-driven rather than politically motivated, receiving support from other central bank leaders, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde [4][6]. - The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged has occurred four times since the beginning of the year, despite increasing pressure from the White House for rapid rate cuts [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs have led to a reduction in the total inventory of goods in the U.S., with companies experiencing price increases of approximately 8% to 15% on many products [8]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropping to 93, the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to concerns over tariffs and their impact on personal finances [9]. - The unpredictability of the current administration's policies has cast a shadow over the economic and employment outlook, raising fears of a potential recession [9]. Group 3: Manufacturing Sector Concerns - Experts warn that tariffs are not a panacea for U.S. economic issues, as the return of manufacturing jobs will require significant time and investment, which is hindered by the unstable economic environment [12]. - Even if manufacturing were to return to the U.S., it may not lead to an increase in jobs due to higher operational costs and a shift towards automation to offset tariff impacts [13]. - Historical data indicates that during Trump's previous term, while manufacturing jobs increased by 0.4%, this was offset by rising costs and job losses due to retaliatory tariffs, suggesting that significant job growth in manufacturing is unlikely in the foreseeable future [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to strengthen over the next few months due to tariffs driving inflation and delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Tariffs are anticipated to accelerate consumer price increases starting in August, which will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1] - The strategist predicts that the euro to dollar exchange rate will temporarily fall to the range of 1.13-1.15, while the yen to dollar exchange rate will decline to 145-150, indicating a drop of approximately 4% for both currencies [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates until December, with a potential slight adjustment for the dollar at that time [1]