Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to a combination of factors, including new regulations on redemption fees for funds, which have triggered a wave of redemptions, and a general decrease in the attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks and commodities [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - Since September, the bond market has experienced a downturn, with the yield on 10-year government bonds surpassing 1.8% and 30-year government bonds exceeding 2.1%, marking new lows in the current bond market cycle [2]. - The recent regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) have increased redemption fees for funds, leading to significant redemptions from pure bond funds, which are primarily used by institutional investors for diversification and liquidity management [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Institutional Behavior - The increase in redemption fees is expected to reduce the cost-effectiveness of bond funds for institutions, prompting a wave of redemptions that has contributed to the current bearish sentiment in the bond market [3]. - Despite the current downturn, the potential for recovery in the bond market is noted, as the fundamental macroeconomic conditions in China do not support a prolonged bear market [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The bond market's configuration value is gradually becoming apparent, especially as the dividend yield of the CSI All Share Index has fallen to 1.89%, comparable to the yield on newly issued 10-year government bonds [4]. - Historical trends suggest that the impact of institutional redemptions on the bond market is often severe but short-lived, indicating potential mid-term investment opportunities [4].

Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent rise in government bond yields, with 10-year yields surpassing 1.8% and 30-year yields exceeding 2.1%, correlating with the strength of the A-share market, indicating a "stock-bond seesaw effect" [1] - The increase in yields is attributed to a shift in investor risk appetite, as regulatory policies aimed at reducing competition may lead to rising prices, diminishing the investment value of bonds [1] - The market is currently experiencing pressure on bond yields due to the potential resumption of government bond trading, which was previously halted by the central bank [4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - August CPI showed a significant decline, entering negative territory with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, primarily driven by weak food prices, which fell by 4.3% [1][2] - Core CPI, however, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 18 months, indicating some resilience in core consumer prices [2] - PPI also showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, but this was an improvement from the previous value of -3.6%, suggesting some stabilization in producer prices [2] Group 3: Policy Implications - The central bank emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, with measures in place to control production in traditional industries [3] - Ongoing economic challenges include weak real estate sales and insufficient consumer demand, which limit the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices [3] - The central bank's potential purchase of government bonds in the secondary market could support the struggling real estate market and consumer spending, countering the negative impact of rising yields on the stock market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

2025年09月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.410 | 102.320 | 105.590 | 105.485 | 107.580 | 107.280 | 114.74 | 114.39 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 涨跌 | 0.060 | 0.030 | 0.165 | 0.135 | 0.090 | 0.075 | -0.020 | 0. ...

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current economic conditions in China and the U.S., highlighting the implementation of market-oriented reforms in key urban areas in China and the stable inflation rates in the U.S. [1][4][5] Economic News - The Chinese government has approved market-oriented reform pilot programs in ten urban areas, including Beijing's sub-center and the Yangtze River Delta [5] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, aligning with expectations, while the core CPI increased by 3.1% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, indicating potential labor market weakness [4] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a rebound, with significant gains in the communication sector and a total market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan [2][9] - The financing balance in China increased by 5.774 billion yuan, indicating a continuation of liquidity support [2][9] - The market is currently in a phase characterized by a "policy bottom, liquidity bottom, and valuation bottom," suggesting potential for further growth despite short-term volatility [2][9] Commodity Insights - Oil prices fell by 1.45% in the night session, with OPEC+ countries planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [11][12] - Glass and soda ash markets are experiencing slow recovery in supply and demand, with glass production inventories decreasing by 1.04 million heavy boxes [16] - The methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory levels, with coastal methanol stocks reaching a historical high of 1.508 million tons [13] Industry-Specific Data - The passenger car market in China saw retail sales of 304,000 units in early September, a 10% year-on-year decline, while wholesale figures showed a 5% decrease [6] - The domestic glass and soda ash markets are in a process of inventory digestion, with a focus on supply-side adjustments [16] - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to tight supply and varying demand from different sectors [18] Shipping and Trade - The European shipping index is under pressure, with a decline of 5.28% as shipping companies adjust pricing strategies ahead of the National Day holiday [30]

Core Viewpoint - Recent interest rate cuts by state-owned banks have prompted many small and medium-sized banks to follow suit, particularly focusing on three and five-year fixed deposit rates, which have generally fallen below 2% with a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points [2][3][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - Several village banks in regions such as Zhejiang, Jilin, and Guangdong have announced reductions in deposit rates, with declines of 10 to 20 basis points [3] - For instance, Zhejiang Shengzhou Ruifeng Village Bank has lowered its one and two-year fixed deposit rates by 20 basis points to 1.15%, while three and five-year rates have decreased by 10 basis points to 1.3% [3] - Jilin Longtan Huayi Village Bank and Changyi Yuyin Village Bank have also reduced their three and five-year fixed deposit rates by 20 basis points, bringing them down to 1.75% and 1.7% respectively [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The stock market's recent performance has led some investors to shift their focus from high-interest deposits to equities, questioning the effectiveness of high-yield large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) as a tool for attracting deposits [2][8] - High Zhengyang, a researcher, noted that while the stock market's appeal is growing, low-risk investors still prefer deposits as a key asset allocation choice, indicating that high-yield large-denomination CDs may still play a positive role in attracting deposits [2][9] Group 3: Large-Denomination CDs - In response to the declining interest rates, several banks have introduced large-denomination CDs with annual rates exceeding 2%, such as Baixin Bank's 2.1% two-year CD and Su Bank's 2.2% three-year CD [6] - The attractiveness of these large-denomination CDs has diminished due to the stock market's performance, with some depositors expressing a preference for investing in stocks instead [8][9] - Despite the challenges, large-denomination CDs are still being consumed relatively quickly, particularly among clients looking for stable returns [9] Group 4: Long-term Strategies - Experts suggest that while high-yield large-denomination CDs can temporarily alleviate deposit pressure, banks should not overly rely on them and should focus on enhancing customer loyalty through differentiated services [10] - The need for banks to reduce their dependence on high-interest deposits and improve service capabilities is emphasized for sustainable growth [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The State Council's new policy on sports industry will increase the supply of sports industry credit bonds and promote innovation in asset - securitized products, but also poses higher requirements for credit risk assessment and prevention [4][11]. - The adjustment of the bond market under the stock - bond rotation shows new characteristics, and the new regulations on fund sales fees have attracted market attention. The new regulations may suppress short - term bond fund investment demand and guide long - term investment [5][15]. - In August, China's import and export growth rates were lower than market expectations, with different performances among trading partners [6][17]. - The central bank's open - market operations led to a net capital withdrawal last week, and the money market was generally stable with most money prices falling [7][20]. - The issuance scale of the primary credit bond market decreased, and the issuance cost fluctuated. The secondary market trading activity cooled, and bond yields showed differentiation [8][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Policy Support for Sports Industry Bond Market**: The State Council's "Opinions" support sports enterprises in financing through the bond market, which may increase the supply of sports industry credit bonds and promote innovation in asset - securitized products. However, it also requires higher credit risk assessment and prevention [4][11]. - **Stock - Bond Rotation and New Fund Sales Regulations**: The A - share market adjusted last week, weakening the "stock - bond seesaw" effect. The bond market adjustment showed new characteristics. The new regulations on fund sales fees may suppress short - term bond fund investment demand and guide long - term investment [5][15]. Macroeconomic Data - In the first eight months of 2025, China's total import and export value was $5412.9 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. In August, exports were $3218.1 billion (up 4.4% year - on - year), imports were $2194.8 billion (up 1.3% year - on - year), and the trade surplus was $1023 billion. The growth rates of imports and exports were lower than market expectations. Exports to ASEAN and the EU were stable, while exports to the US continued to decline significantly [17]. Money Market - The central bank net withdrew $421.8 billion through open - market operations last week. On September 5, it conducted a $1 - trillion 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation. The money market was generally stable, and most money prices fell, with changes ranging from 1 - 10bp [7][20]. Primary Credit Bond Market - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased to $133.451 billion last week. The issuance scale of each bond type generally decreased, especially for ultra - short - term financing bills and medium - term notes. The net financing of infrastructure investment and financing, power production and supply, and transportation industries had large outflows. The average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated, with changes not exceeding 15bp [8][23]. Secondary Credit Bond Market - The trading volume of the secondary bond market was $7247.247 billion last week, and the trading activity cooled for two consecutive weeks. Bond yields showed differentiation. The 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1bp to 1.83%. Short - term credit bond yields mostly declined, while long - term yields rose slightly. Short - term credit spreads narrowed, and long - term credit spreads widened. Rating spreads changed little [36][37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver. For copper, recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading; for aluminum, recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; for nickel, recommended to hold or short on rallies; for tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins. Most are expected to trade in a range, with PVC, caustic soda, and styrene having specific price ranges to watch; rubber is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term; for soda ash, recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [1][20][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, expected to be strongly bullish; bearish on red dates, expected to be weakly bearish [1][34][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn and soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, expected to be strongly bullish in the short term but currently experiencing a high-level correction [1][38][40][46] Core Views - The A-share market is in a confidence restoration phase after adjustment, and the mid-term upward drive remains unchanged. The bond market is under pressure and lacks rebound momentum [5] - The black building materials market is in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal rising slowly and the price of rebar expected to fall first and then rise in September [7] - The non-ferrous metals market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the price of copper expected to fluctuate at a high level and the price of aluminum expected to be supported by supply and demand [10][11] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy, with the price of PVC expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price of soda ash recommended for arbitrage [20][33] - The cotton textile industry chain market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of cotton expected to be strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of live pigs expected to be under pressure in the long term but with short-term rebound potential [39] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market oscillated and pulled up on Wednesday, with the trading volume shrinking slightly, indicating that the market is gradually entering the confidence restoration phase after adjustment. In the medium term, the upward drive of the market remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market was under pressure on Wednesday, with the yield curve steepening significantly. The negative factors included tight capital, supply pressure, and the stock-bond seesaw effect. If the market environment does not change, it will take time for the market to clear [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The price increase of pithead coal slowed down, and the market was in a stalemate. It is recommended to wait for a driving force [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional peak season in September. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7] - **Glass**: The supply and demand of glass improved, and the fundamentals were better than in July and August. It is recommended to take partial profits on the 01 long position and buy on dips [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper was affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term upward momentum insufficient and the overall high-level oscillation expected. It is recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum was supported by supply and demand, with the demand entering the peak season and the inventory approaching the inflection point. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel was affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term price affected by the macro environment and the long-term supply surplus continuing. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [17] - **Silver and Gold**: The price of silver and gold was supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [16][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC were still weak, but the valuation was low, and it was recommended to pay attention to policy and cost disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 4700 - 5000 [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda was affected by factors such as warehouse receipts, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene was affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 6900 - 7200 [25] - **Rubber**: The price of rubber was affected by factors such as cost, inventory, and demand. It is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to watch the support level of 15600 [25][26] - **Urea**: The supply of urea decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol was stable, and the demand was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 2350 - 2450 for the 01 contract [28] - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins improved, but the supply pressure of PP was large. It is expected that the LL主力合约 will oscillate in a range, and the PP will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to watch the range of 7200 - 7500 for the LL主力合约 and 6900 - 7200 for the PP [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash was abundant, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand of cotton improved, but the increase in new cotton production was expected to put pressure on the price. It is recommended to do a good job in hedging [34] - **PTA**: The inventory of PTA decreased recently, but the supply increased in the far month, and the oil price weakened. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 4600 - 4950 [35][36] - **Apples**: The price of early-ripening apples was firm, and it is expected to remain strongly bullish [36] - **Red Dates**: The consumption of red dates was weak, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs increased in September, and the price was under pressure in the long term. However, there was short-term rebound potential due to policy regulation and holiday demand. It is recommended to take rolling stop-profit on the 11 and 01 short positions and add short positions on rebounds [39] - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs was boosted by school openings and Mid-Autumn Festival preparations, and the supply pressure was relieved to some extent. However, the supply was still sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts and watch for range trading [40] - **Corn**: The new corn was about to be listed, and the old corn inventory was relatively tight. It is recommended to pay attention to the listing time of the new corn and watch the 11 contract for range trading [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as the US soybean supply and demand, domestic inventory, and cost. It is recommended to watch the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the USDA supply and demand report [46] - **Oils**: The price of oils was in a high-level correction, with the short-term support levels of 8200, 9200, and 9700 for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of the 11 - 01 contracts of rapeseed oil [46][51]

2025年09月11日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | 021-50586292 | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.320 | 105.570 | 105.480 | 107.775 | 107.510 | 115.72 | 115.36 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.030 | -0.145 | -0.130 | -0.285 | -0.305 | -0.96 ...

Group 1 - Since the end of July, government bond futures have shown weak fluctuations, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect becoming prominent, and the bond market is under pressure due to the CSRC's proposed regulations on fund redemption fees [1][3] - In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports grew by 1.3%, indicating a potential decline in export growth in the future due to the release of transshipment demand [1] - The bond market is currently sensitive to negative news and less responsive to positive developments, reflecting a weak market sentiment, especially in the long end of the yield curve [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic narrative is more favorable for the stock market, with core economic indicators showing volatility, while the bond market faces challenges due to the current economic phase and rising inflation expectations [2] - The central bank's recent shift in monetary policy language suggests a focus on implementing existing policies rather than introducing new ones, which may impact credit expansion and the bond market [2] - The recent regulatory changes regarding redemption fees for bond funds could lead to increased costs for investors, further pressuring the bond market [3]