投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 重磅会议召开，国债期货震荡上涨 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡上涨。7 月以来，股市风险偏好上升，资金偏好 由债转股，股债跷跷板效应显现，加上外部风险因素趋于缓和，国债短线承 压。随着国债期货持续回调，国债收益率持续上升，触发政策利率的锚定效 应，国债期货继续下行的动能有所不足。今日召开的政治局会议再提落实落 细适度宽松的货币政策，这意味着未来货币环境仍偏宽松，国债期货中长期 向上的逻辑仍较为牢靠。短期内，宏观经济表现韧性，外部风险因素趋缓， 降息的必要性有所不足，国债上行的动能也有限。总的来说，短期内国债期 货震荡整理为主，上行与下行的空间均有限。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、 ...

Group 1 - The overall average return of pure bond funds since July is -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [1][3] - There has been a significant redemption phenomenon in bond funds, with nearly 40 bond funds announcing large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May respectively [3] - Industry analysts suggest that factors such as "anti-involution" improving deflation expectations, easing of China-US tariff tensions, and the stock-bond seesaw effect are likely to continue to suppress the bond market in the short term [3] Group 2 - The high congestion in the bond market may lead to continued preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products, potentially disrupting the market [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, but there are opportunities for phase recovery [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, with an overall view of oscillation due to the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term is within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillate, oscillate, and oscillate weakly respectively, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors, the risk appetite in the stock market rose rapidly, and the stock - bond seesaw effect emerged, causing treasury bond futures to face short - term pressure. However, the continuous rise of market interest rates will trigger the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, limiting the upward space of market interest rates and the downward space of treasury bond futures. From a macro - policy perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, future monetary policy will remain relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond fund industry is experiencing a significant redemption wave, with large-scale outflows triggered by market conditions, particularly following a notable decline in the bond market on July 24, leading to the largest single-day redemption since last year's "9.24" event [1][2]. Group 1: Redemption Trends - On July 24, the bond market saw a substantial pullback, resulting in a record single-day redemption for public bond funds, with net bond sales exceeding 120 billion yuan over three consecutive trading days [1][2]. - Since July 21, the net subscription index for public bond funds has remained negative, reaching -29.2 on July 24, indicating significant outflows [2]. - In July, over 40 bond funds had to adjust their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, a notable increase compared to previous months [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with funds flowing from bond markets to equity markets as stock and commodity markets perform well [1][4]. - The low yield environment for bond funds has diminished their attractiveness, leading to increased risk appetite among investors, which further exacerbates outflows from bond funds [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Manager Responses - Fund managers are proactively managing redemption pressures by reducing bond holdings' leverage and duration to mitigate net asset value fluctuations [6]. - Communication with institutional investors is prioritized to encourage staggered redemptions, thereby minimizing impact [6]. - Many bond funds have resorted to dividend distributions to retain investors, with 924 pure bond funds announcing dividends since June, compared to 848 in the same period last year [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Compared to previous redemption waves, the current situation is characterized by a shorter duration and manageable impact, with net bond sales and related product pullbacks remaining within controllable limits [7]. - Some institutions are taking advantage of the market pullback to buy into bond funds, suggesting a balanced flow of capital [8].

Group 1 - Bond funds are experiencing a "redemption storm," with significant outflows following a market downturn on July 24, leading to the largest single-day redemption scale since last year's "9.24" event, with over 120 billion yuan net sold in three consecutive trading days [1][2] - The redemption pressure on bond funds has been somewhat alleviated after the People's Bank of China injected liquidity, but concerns remain as the market faced another downturn on July 29 [2][3] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, as funds are flowing from bond markets to equity markets due to stronger performance in stocks and commodities, which has diminished the attractiveness of bonds [1][3] Group 2 - As of July 28, only 5.01% is the highest return among 4,252 pure bond funds this year, with over 72% yielding less than 1%, indicating poor performance in the bond market [4] - The majority of redemptions are driven by retail investors moving their funds into equities or other products, while institutional investors are redeeming pure bond funds to invest in higher-yielding secondary bond funds [4][5] - Fund managers are actively managing redemption pressures by reducing leverage and duration of bond holdings, and communicating with institutional clients to mitigate impacts [3][5] Group 3 - Many bond funds have announced dividends to retain investors, with 924 pure bond funds declaring dividends since June, compared to 848 in the same period last year [5] - The current redemption wave is shorter and less intense than previous ones, with manageable levels of net bond sales and product drawdowns [5] - Some institutions are taking advantage of the market correction to buy into bond funds, suggesting a balanced flow of capital rather than a spiral decline [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan on July 28 [1][6][7] - The PBOC's actions are aimed at maintaining liquidity in the market, especially as the end of the month approaches, which typically sees seasonal tightening of funds [8][12] - The bond market has shown signs of recovery following the PBOC's increased liquidity measures, with yields on government bonds declining across various maturities [10][11] Group 2 - The recent increase in liquidity is a response to rising interest rates and tightening market conditions, particularly influenced by the recent surge in commodity prices [7][12] - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue implementing significant net liquidity injections to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive interest rate increases [12][14] - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield rising to 1.98% before the PBOC's interventions led to a decrease in yields [10][11]

宏观利率研究 证券研究报告 / 宏观利率研究 2025 年 07 月 28 日 股债"跷跷板"分流资金 关注重要会议及中美谈判 宏观利率周报（20250721-0725） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：7 月全球 PMI 不及预期，关税压制环境中下半年出口增量有限。 叠加限产趋势，预计制造业景气或依然偏弱。上半年经济增长基础稳固，完成全 年目标三季度压力不大，下一轮稳增长或在四季度出现，长周期看货币政策无需 过早收紧。与此同时，反内卷预期短期难以证伪，权益市场放量加速行情仍在演 化，股市 "跷跷板"效应将继续分流债市资金，阶段性压力仍在。上周，各大商品 交易所连发风险提示，周五商品期货全线下跌，或有助利率平稳运行。本周建议 关注重要会议以及中美谈判结果。 ⚫ 行情回顾：雅江水电站亮相，股市赚钱效应显现，上证行情一度突破 3600 点，"跷跷板"效应分流债市资金。叠加反内卷政策陆续推出、资金面偏紧，收 益率全线大幅调整，期限结构陡峭化。 ⚫ 市场要闻：（1）贸易摩擦。商务部就欧盟第 18 轮对俄制裁列单中国企业和 金融机构事答记者问。（2）国债发行落实。第三批国债支持以旧换新资金下达。 置换债已发行全年额度的 90% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week (July 21 - July 25, 2025), bond yields oscillated upwards. The ChinaBond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) fell 0.39%, and the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00203) fell 0.44%. Interest - rate bonds and credit bonds across all tenors and ratings saw yield increases, and most credit spreads widened. The bond market adjusted due to the release of negative factors, the US Treasury yield curve flattened, and the secondary market for REITs declined while trading activity picked up [3][10]. - As of July 25, the total scale of 39 bond ETF products in the market exceeded 500 billion yuan, reaching 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase from the beginning of the year, with science - innovation bond ETFs as the core growth driver [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market Review**: Last week, bond yields oscillated upwards. Interest - rate bonds across all tenors declined, with medium - and long - term yields rising significantly more than short - term ones. Credit bond yields across all tenors and ratings increased, and most credit spreads widened. The 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Treasury yields rose 3.38bp, 6.64bp, 9.14bp, and 7.07bp respectively [3][10]. - **Bond Market Adjustment**: The bond market adjusted due to the release of negative factors. The central bank's net open - market injection was 10.95 billion yuan last week. The money market was tight at first and then loose, with DR007 and R007 rising 14.56bp and 18.65bp respectively. The bond market adjusted significantly due to factors such as improved fundamental expectations, a higher issuance rate of 30 - year special Treasury bonds, and the stock - bond seesaw effect. In the short term, the broad - money direction is unlikely to change, and the money market may be a disturbing factor. The central bank's support means limited liquidity risk, but the stock market may continue to affect the bond market [10][11]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve**: The US Treasury yield curve flattened. At the beginning of the week, yields declined due to risk - aversion, then rebounded as tensions eased. On Thursday, lower - than - expected initial jobless claims data pushed up short - term yields. In the future, the FOMC meeting may keep interest rates unchanged, and strong economic data may further dampen rate - cut expectations. Short - term yields can be traded on the dips, while caution is advised for long - term bonds [12]. - **REITs Market**: The secondary market for REITs declined, but trading activity picked up. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.56% last week. After the decline in July, the valuations of REITs projects adjusted, and the cash distribution rate increased. Individual bonds in sectors such as consumption and affordable housing have increased cost - effectiveness [13]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - As of July 25, the total scale of 39 bond ETF products in the market reached 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase from the beginning of the year. Science - innovation bond ETFs were the core growth driver, with the first batch of 10 products reaching over 100 billion yuan in scale in the first week after listing. The bond ETF market has diverse product types, and there is still room for development in terms of supply, product innovation, and investor structure [4][14][15]. 2. Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | This Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Strategy Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Short - Term Bond Fund Selection | - 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.59% | 4.00% | | Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection | - 0.30% | - 0.13% | 0.68% | 6.32% | | Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | - 0.11% | 0.40% | 1.62% | 2.90% | | Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | 0.14% | 1.02% | 2.33% | 2.85% | | High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | 0.42% | 1.34% | 4.68% | 4.42% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | 2.24% | 4.77% | 11.60% | 15.09% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | 0.33% | 0.42% | 3.17% | 8.16% | | REITs Fund Selection | - 1.61% | - 3.99% | 26.83% | 35.47% | 2.1. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims at liquidity management, selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return capabilities, and uses 50% Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% General Money - Market Fund Index as the benchmark [17]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Aims at stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, selects 5 funds, adjusts duration and the ratio of credit and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [19]. 2.2. Fixed - Income + Index Tracking - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: Has an equity central position of 10%, selects 10 funds with an equity central position of less than 15% in the past three years and recently, and uses 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index as the benchmark [24]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: Has an equity central position of 20%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently [24]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: Has an equity central position of 30%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently, and focuses on funds with strong stock - picking ability in the equity segment [27]. 2.3. Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index - Selects bond - type funds with an average convertible - bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space, and selects 5 funds based on an evaluation system [29][33]. 2.4. QDII Bond Fund Selection Index Tracking - Selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [35]. 2.5. REITs Fund Selection Index Tracking - Selects 10 REITs funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [37].

Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations with rising yields during the week of July 21-25, 2025. The China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) fell by 0.39%, while the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) decreased by 0.44%. Yields on government bonds across various maturities rose, with the 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields increasing by 3.38bp, 6.64bp, 9.14bp, and 7.07bp respectively [12][13] - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 109.5 billion yuan, with a total of 21.563 trillion yuan injected and 20.468 trillion yuan withdrawn. The overall liquidity was balanced, with DR007 and R007 rising by 14.56bp and 18.65bp to 1.65% and 1.59% respectively [13] - The U.S. Treasury market showed limited volatility, with a flattening yield curve. Initial jobless claims data unexpectedly declined, reinforcing a strong labor market view and reducing recent rate cut expectations [14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - As of July 25, 2025, the total scale of bond ETF products in the market surpassed 500 billion yuan, reaching 510.505 billion yuan, a nearly 200% increase since the beginning of the year. The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF has become a core growth driver, with the first batch of 10 products launched after the Lujiazui Forum in June, achieving over 100 billion yuan in the first week [16][17] - The bond ETF market features a diverse range of products, with significant growth in various categories. For instance, the Pengyang 30-Year Treasury ETF exceeded 20 billion yuan, and the Bosera CSI Convertible Bond ETF surpassed 40 billion yuan [17] - The bond ETF market's growth indicates a deep integration of finance and technology, with ongoing product innovation and an optimized investor structure expected to inject sustained momentum into the high-quality development of China's capital market [17] Performance Tracking of Fixed Income Funds - Short-term bond fund index fell by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.00% since inception [19] - Medium to long-term bond fund index decreased by 0.30%, with a cumulative return of 6.32% since inception [19] - Convertible bond fund index rose by 2.24%, achieving a cumulative return of 15.09% since inception [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant "seesaw effect" in the market, where the A-share market is recovering while the bond market is experiencing adjustments, leading to increased redemptions in bond funds [1] - As of July 25, over 400 bond funds have reported losses this year, with more than half of bond funds showing negative performance since July, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [1][2] - The yield on major interbank bonds has generally declined, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping by 2 basis points to 1.9275% and the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.81% [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations over the next year, with opportunities arising from adjustments; during July 21-25, bond funds rapidly reduced duration, resulting in a net sell of 236.1 billion yuan in long-term bonds [2] - As of July 25, the company bond ETF (511030) has seen a slight increase of 0.01%, with a one-year cumulative increase of 1.76% [2] - The company bond ETF has a current scale of 22.262 billion yuan, with recent inflows and outflows remaining balanced, and a total of 1.08 million yuan raised over the last ten trading days [3] Group 3 - The company bond ETF has a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% [4] - The tracking error of the company bond ETF for the year is 0.013%, closely following the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [5] - The company bond ETF has achieved a maximum drawdown of 0.50% this year, with a recovery time of 23 days after the drawdown [3]