曾以财政保守著称的德国正在上演一场前所未有的政策大转弯。从年初债务刹车改革时的谨慎试探，到如今推出相当于GDP近20%的超大规模刺 激计划，这一转变的幅度和速度让德国人都直呼"完全不敢想象"。 据追风交易台消息，德意志银行最新研究报告显示，德国政府本周在实施财政政策转向方面迈出了重大步伐。执政联盟同意借款近5000亿欧元， 以在2029年前将国防预算提高到北约设定的新目标——占GDP的3.5%，这一速度将超过英国或法国；同时，同意在同一时期借款近3000亿欧元用 于基础设施建设。 德银分析师表示，上述两者合计，财政刺激规模接近GDP的20%——这在年初是不可想象的。按德国的标准，这确实是"不惜一切代价"的财政政 策。尽管议会要到9月才会辩论今年的预算法案，但私营部门可以预期该法案将会通过：执政联盟在最近几周一直顺利且协调地推进预算流程。 分析师补充道，短期内，计划中债务融资支出的提速幅度异常之大——甚至可能过于雄心勃勃。德国政府计划最早在今年就将赤字提高到GDP的 3%以上，明年则接近4%。 史无前例的财政扩张计划 德国政府的预算计划显示出比此前预期更大的财政扩张前置化程度。根据报告，政府计划2025年在国防 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks still pose disturbances to the market. The A-share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. To break out of the current oscillation pattern and elevate the valuation again, policy - driven fiscal expansion, intensified real - estate stabilization measures, and rapid advancement of supply - side reform are required [2][10] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events Next Week's View - Geopolitical risks continue to affect the market. The global stock market showed a roller - coaster trend this week, with the MSCI Global Index rising in the first four days and falling sharply on Friday. The A - share market remained in a high - level oscillation. The Sino - US talks in London earlier this week alleviated trade pressure, but the conflict between Israel and Iran on Friday increased geopolitical risks and impacted global risk assets, causing a sharp decline in the A - share market. Domestically, the economic momentum is weakening, and the abnormal valuation expansion of the A - share market is prominent [2][10] This Week's Key Events - On June 9th, China's May CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year, exports grew 4.8% year - on - year, and imports fell 3.4% year - on - year. The State Council held a special learning meeting on promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on improving people's livelihood [11][12][13] - On June 10th, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued a document on promoting in - depth reform in Shenzhen, and the Chinese President had a phone call with the South Korean President to ensure the healthy development of Sino - South Korean relations [15][16] - On June 11th, China and the US reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads of state's phone call and the Geneva talks. China will implement zero - tariff measures for 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [17][18] - On June 12th, China and the US agreed to further play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and maintain communication [19][20] - On June 13th, China's M2 in May increased 7.9% year - on - year, and the Chinese President will attend the Second China - Central Asia Summit [21][22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 0.25%, with emerging markets (+0.60%) > developed markets (-0.35%) > frontier markets (-0.47%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 3.64%, leading the world, while the German stock market fell 1.99%, performing the worst globally [1][23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From June 9th to June 13th, Chinese equity assets corrected. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1371.8 billion yuan, an increase of 171.7 billion yuan compared with last week. The A - share market was differentiated, with the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange performing poorly, while the ChiNext Index rose slightly by 0.22% [1][26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was energy (+5.11%), and the poorly performing industry was finance (-1.80%). In the Chinese market, energy led the rise (+2.27%), and daily consumption led the decline (-3.14%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 14 rose (23 last week) and 16 fell (7 last week). The leading industry was non - ferrous metals (+3.95%), and the industry with the largest decline was food and beverages (-4.42%) [1][31] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles - This week, the value style outperformed the growth style, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards mid - cap stocks [36] Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report provides the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 100, etc. [43] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [44] Equity Risk Premium of Broad - Based Indexes - The ERP of the CSI 300 decreased slightly this week, while the ERPs of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 increased slightly [45][50] Consensus Expected Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 remained flat at 8.16%, and that in 2026 was lowered to 8.12%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 36.79%, and that in 2026 was raised to 16.16%. The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 1.36%, and that in 2026 was raised to 19.38% [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields declined, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [59] Tracking of Trading - Type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 18.5 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 12.6 billion yuan compared with last week [61] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.5 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 0.2 billion, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3 billion, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.9 billion [65][66][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Rebounded - The tire operating rate rebounded, and relevant charts show the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, and domestic crude steel daily output [72][74][75] Consumption Side: The Transaction Volume of New Homes Declined Significantly - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities declined significantly, and the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales declined. The price of crude oil rose to around $75 per barrel [81][91] Inflation Observation: Energy Prices Rose Significantly - Energy prices rose significantly, production material prices fluctuated at a low level, and agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [93][94]

Monetary Policy Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2.0%, a reduction of 200 basis points from its peak[1] - The ECB has revised its HICP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively, while maintaining the 2027 forecast[1] - The ECB projects real GDP growth for the Eurozone at 0.9%, 1.1%, and 1.3% over the next three years[1] Economic Challenges - The Eurozone faces limited fiscal expansion capacity and slow effectiveness, which may exacerbate the impact of tariff frictions on its economy[2] - Exports to the U.S. accounted for only 17% of the Eurozone's total exports to non-EA20 countries, suggesting that the impact of U.S. tariffs may be manageable[2] - However, the export surplus to the U.S. has increased significantly, reaching 58.1% in March 2025, indicating a potential underestimation of tariff impacts[2] Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in April 2025, decreasing by $75 billion to $87 billion, which may indicate stronger trade pressures on Europe[3] - China's exports in April exceeded expectations, suggesting that Europe is experiencing greater trade shocks due to U.S. tariffs[3] Monetary Operations in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity, with a maturity of 91 days[4] - The PBOC's recent LPR cut has provided slight support to the real estate market, but new home sales in major cities have shown signs of decline[4] - A further rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated in June to stimulate the economy amid potential export downturns[4]

Economic Overview - South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, has pledged to initiate an emergency economic task force to achieve a virtuous economic cycle through national finances [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was reported at 116.27, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is below the Bank of Korea's 2% inflation target [1][3] - The economic outlook is grim, with many financial institutions lowering their growth forecasts for South Korea due to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][5] Inflation and Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation in personal services [3] - Prices for petroleum products fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively [3] - Agricultural and livestock prices saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the fresh food index dropped by 5.0% year-on-year [3] Government Response and Fiscal Policy - The South Korean government approved a supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion KRW (approximately 725.7 million RMB) to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and stabilize prices [4] - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for the year down to 0.8%, significantly lower than previous estimates [4][5] - The new administration is expected to implement fiscal stimulus measures to support strategic industries and enhance the stock market [9] Trade Relations and External Pressures - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, which poses a significant challenge for South Korea's export-driven economy [8] - South Korea is the fourth-largest steel exporter to the U.S., accounting for 13.1% of U.S. steel imports, and is facing increased export pressure due to the tariff hikes [8] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. are seen as critical for the new government's success [7][9] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new government, the yield on South Korea's 10-year government bonds rose by over 10 basis points to 2.90% [9][10] - Analysts predict that bond issuance may exceed initial plans, with estimates suggesting issuance could reach 230 trillion KRW in 2025 [9] - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5%, with expectations of further reductions by year-end [10]

据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月3日，韩国广播公司KBS、韩联社等多家媒体称，李在明已确定当选新一届韩国总统。 李在明上任首日，韩国债券市场迅速作出反应。周三，韩国10年期国债收益率大涨超过10个基点至2.90%，30年期韩国国债拍卖 投标倍数创下自2022年4月以来新低。 市场担忧，李总统将开启韩国财政扩张时代，他此前多次承诺，将加大财政支出力度来促进经济增长，这可能导致政府债券供应 量大幅上升，甚至可能超过今年原定计划。 债券供应"洪水"或将持续至明年 韩国财政部今年已计划发行207.1万亿韩元（1507亿美元）的政府债券。但多家机构预测显示，真正的大手笔还在后头。 摩根士丹利预计李在明政府将在今年第三季度推出第二轮刺激计划，至少35万亿韩元，而荷兰国际集团（ING）预测这一刺激计 划可能高达40到45万亿韩元。 SK证券分析师Yun Wontae表示： "第二轮额外预算为30万亿韩元，意味着政府债券发行将增加25万亿韩元。因此，2025年总的债券发行量可能达到230 万亿韩元。" Hana证券更悲观，预期明年韩国政府债务的发行量可能进一步上升，达到246万亿韩元。 韩华证券分析师Kim Sungsoo也指出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market has become the starting point for the rise in global ultra-long-term interest rates, with increasing interconnectivity between domestic and international rates being a significant factor [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds reached a record high of 3.135% during the auction on May 28, marking the highest since the auction's inception in November 2007 [3]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.21, indicating weak demand and the lowest level since July 2024 [3]. - The yield on newly issued 40-year bonds peaked at 3.675% on May 22, which is 1% higher than the end of 2024, reflecting a rapid increase in market rates [4]. Group 2: Global Impact - The instability in Japan's ultra-long-term bonds has led to fluctuations in the global bond market, with U.S. 30-year bond yields also rising to 5.1% on May 22, the highest since October 2023 [4]. - The heightened interconnectivity of domestic and international rates has made the Japanese market more susceptible to global events, particularly those originating from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - The shift in major buyers of Japanese ultra-long-term bonds to overseas investors has contributed to the increased global market interconnectivity [5]. - Market participants are cautious, as many investors engage in strategic buying and selling during periods of volatility, making it difficult to predict market reversals [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The feasibility of reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds remains uncertain, with expectations of a potential decrease in supply that could lead to lower rates if confirmed [6]. - The upcoming auction of 30-year bonds on June 5 is critical, as disappointing results could lead to renewed market instability [6]. Group 5: Stock Market Reactions - The volatility in the bond market has begun to affect the stock market, with significant fluctuations in the Nikkei average on May 28 due to interest rate changes [7]. - The sensitivity of the stock market to bond market fluctuations raises concerns about overall market stability [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Regarding commodities, be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products from the US stock adjustment, and the price of agricultural products may rise due to tariffs. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas, and OPEC+ may increase production [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. US Market - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries [2]. Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases shows a pattern of first trading the decline in demand and then trading the rise in inflation. Be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals from the US stock adjustment. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. The price of crude oil has declined, and OPEC+ will increase production in June and may further increase production in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas [2]. Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] To - Do News - The Fed meeting minutes show increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, and a cautious monetary policy is appropriate. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India, the US and the UK. The US government restricts the sale of semiconductor software services to China. The US International Trade Court's ruling on tariffs has been appealed. Japan will issue 800 billion yen in 30 - year government bonds. OPEC+ will discuss production increases in July [2][5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Core Viewpoints - The market should focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic economic data was mixed, with short - term export support, weakening investment, rising fiscal revenues and expenditures, and slightly pressured consumption. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should also focus on whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] - The downgrade of the US sovereign rating and the expectation of fiscal expansion have led to a continuous rise in long - term US Treasury yields, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. The economic data of the US and the eurozone show different trends [2] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different commodities have different responses to tariffs, and the supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, with obvious re - export support and eased Sino - US tariffs. Investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenues and expenditures increased, supported by land transfer fees, and consumption was slightly pressured. The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. The market should pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] US and Global Economic Situation - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation is rising. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut expectation is postponed to September. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of four - week and eight - week Treasury bonds. US - EU trade negotiations have complex progress. Japan's overseas net assets reached a record high but lost the position of the world's largest creditor nation. The eurozone's economic data weakened, while the US economic data improved [2] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, different commodities have different responses to tariffs. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment. For agricultural products, the probability of price increase due to tariffs is higher. The supply of crude oil is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [3] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - term allocation on dips [4] Important News - China may relax rare - earth export controls on European chip companies. The US Treasury has reduced the issuance of short - term Treasury bonds. Trump praised the EU's progress in trade negotiations. Japan's Nippon Steel plans to acquire US Steel. Japan proposed to buy billions of dollars of US semiconductor products. Japan's 40 - year Treasury bond auction had a low bid - to - cover ratio, and bond yields rose. OPEC+ will hold meetings to discuss production quotas [5]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]

Core Points - The US dollar has dropped 2% this week, marking the largest weekly decline since April, amid rising concerns over the US fiscal situation [1] - The dollar's decline is unusual given the high interest rate environment, as typically higher yields would attract investment in dollar assets [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell significantly, breaking below April lows and reaching a new yearly low [1][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors are exhibiting panic selling of dollar assets, indicated by simultaneous declines in the dollar, US government bonds, and stocks [1] - Chris Turner from ING highlights ongoing concerns about the quality of US asset markets and threats of de-dollarization putting pressure on the dollar [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin attempted to downplay the dollar's weakness, attributing it to strength in other currencies rather than a decline in the dollar itself [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The fiscal deficit concerns stemming from Trump's tax cuts have led to a sell-off in long-term US bonds, with the 30-year bond yield rising 0.13 percentage points to surpass 5% [5] - Analysts warn that worries about the increasing fiscal burden on the US are gradually intensifying [5] - MUFG's Lee Hardman states that renewed concerns about the US fiscal outlook and speculation about weakening the dollar in international discussions are exacerbating the sell-off [7] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing decline of the dollar is linked to growing investor concerns about the impact of comprehensive tariffs on the US economy [7] - RBC Asset Management analysts predict that the dollar's weakness will persist as investors seek to hedge dollar exposure in the short term and reconsider structural overexposure to the US in the long term [7]