贵金属日报:关税担忧及地缘升级重新推升避险需求 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月3日 【行情回顾】 上周COMEX贵金属整体震荡微跌，但周一强势上涨。具体看，利空面，周一特朗普将欧盟50%关税威 胁的最后期限从6月1日推迟到7月9日，这一决定源于欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩的主动致电请求，该消息 略微改善市场风险偏好，贵金属略承压； 周二美国股债汇齐升反映对美国财政担忧缓解，风险偏好改 善，资金重新回流美国市场，美消费者信心指数亦超预期；周三美债5Y拍卖良好，且美联储会议纪要继 续传递谨慎降息态度；周四亚盘早盘时段，贵金属市场一度快速回落，受美国法院叫停特朗普"解放 日"贸易政策这一消息影响。利多面，周四贵金属很快收复跌幅，因美国上诉法院迅速恢复了关税，叠加 特朗普邀请会见鲍威尔，亦引发美联储"独立性担忧"；周五晚间特朗普发文称中国违反与美国协议，关 税冲突担忧重新升温；周六早晨，白宫宣布自这周起，美国钢铁和铝进口关税从25%翻番至50%，这亦促 使欧盟委员会警告称欧洲准备报复，进一步加剧关税担忧，且俄乌冲突有所升级。 【资金与库存】 长线基 ...

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing multiple dynamics, including rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a declining US dollar index, and fluctuating prices for gold and silver, with London gold stabilizing around $3,300 per ounce and London silver around $33 per ounce [1] - The investment landscape for gold and silver is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain concerns due to tariff policies, leading to a dual logic of safe-haven demand and industrial attributes [1] - Year-to-date, London gold has increased over 12%, while silver has shown higher volatility, presenting differentiated investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Comparison of Gold and Silver Characteristics - London gold is viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset, with price fluctuations primarily driven by macroeconomic cycles and monetary policy, particularly the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [3] - The expected core PCE inflation rate for 2025 is 2.7%, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - London silver, with over 50% of its demand coming from industrial applications, saw a 21.5% price increase in 2024, but is expected to face a 21% reduction in global supply gap in 2025, making it more susceptible to short-term market sentiment [3] Group 2: Role of Jinsheng Precious Metals in Investment Decisions - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange, offers a trading platform that connects deeply with international markets, providing 24-hour two-way trading services for gold and silver [4] - The platform features a transparent cost structure with a standard spread of $30 per lot for gold and $100 per lot for silver, along with a leverage ratio of 1:100 [4] - Jinsheng's customer service team is available 24/7 to assist investors, especially during critical market events such as Federal Reserve policy changes [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - A suggested strategy for ordinary investors is to adopt a "gold base + silver enhancement" approach, allocating 70% of the portfolio to gold and 30% to silver [5] - Key signals to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June and changes in US non-farm employment data, which could influence gold and silver prices [5] - Jinsheng's simulated trading feature serves as a testing ground for various strategies, helping investors avoid pitfalls in real trading scenarios [5] Conclusion - In the context of shifting Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical changes, the investment value of London gold and silver varies, with Jinsheng Precious Metals providing a compliant, transparent, and professional trading platform for investors [7] - Both long-term holders seeking stability and short-term traders looking to capitalize on volatility can find suitable solutions within Jinsheng's ecosystem [7]

报告推荐：黄金全产业链季度观察报告 出 品 方：北京黄金经济发展研究中心 黄金市场：避险情绪下的价值重估 高盛预计金价明年有望触及3700 美元/盎司，较当前价格上涨约11.8%，并警示极端情境下可能攀升至接近4500 美元（约上涨36%）。瑞银和摩根大通等机 构同样对金价持乐观展望，认为全球避险需求、央行"去美元化"买盘以及中国市场的新生力量将为金价提供支撑。 避险情绪推高金价 今年以来，全球经济和地缘政治不确定性上升，黄金避险属性凸显。4 月下旬，金价在避险买盘推动下突破3500 美元，年初至今涨幅近30%。虽然投机资金 曾撤离，但对经济衰退的担忧使黄金ETF 持仓持续增加，东方市场的实物需求也在逢低买入。美国与中国的新一轮贸易摩擦进一步助燃了市场避险情绪。 尽管双方在5 月12 日达成临时关税休战协议，但投资者对美国经济前景的担忧仍未消除，避险资金加速涌入黄金市场。 高盛：上调预期 高盛上调黄金价格预测，将2025 年底金价目标提高至3700 美元/盎司，预计金价运行区间在3650~3950 美元之间。支撑这一预期的核心因素是全球央行购金 需求和避险资金流入超预期。高盛将全球央行每月购金量假设从70 吨 ...

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to fluctuations in price movements [1] - The focus should be on strategies to protect capital and respond to market changes rather than predicting market direction [1] Gold Market Analysis - On May 29, spot gold experienced fluctuations, opening at $3285.91 per ounce, reaching a high of $3294.46, and a low of $3245.29, closing at $3280.01, reflecting a decline of 0.34% [1] - Gold prices have fallen for four consecutive days due to multiple factors: a U.S. court ruling boosting market risk appetite, a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent decline, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly due to delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE price index release, which will provide critical guidance for assessing the Fed's policy direction and future gold price trends [1] Technical Analysis - The current prediction for gold indicates a potential downward adjustment from $3365, with two possible scenarios: one suggesting a five-wave upward movement and the other indicating a three-wave ABC structure [2] - The recent drop below the key support level of $3280 confirms the three-wave ABC structure, suggesting that gold may not reach new highs in the short term and is currently in the final Z-wave downward adjustment [2] Trading Strategy - A short position strategy is recommended: if gold rebounds to the $3300-$3310 range and faces resistance, a light short position can be initiated with a stop-loss above $3320 and a target set at $3270-$3280 [4]

美国联邦法院裁决阻止关税实施的消息提振市场风险情绪，避险需求随之减弱，黄金价格连续第四个交 易日下跌，创一周半以来新低。与此同时美联储会议纪要释放鹰派信号、美债收益率上行以及美元指数 重返100关口等多重因素共同施压金价。黄金近期持续走弱主要受到美元反弹与避险需求下降的双重影 响，但中长期支撑因素仍在积累，特别是在美联储维持高利率政策以及中东地缘政治紧张局势升级的背 景下。需重点关注本周五美国PCE物价指数的发布，该数据将成为研判美联储货币政策走向及黄金价格 走势的重要参考节点。 1.黄金建议回调3288-3293区域做多，止损在3280，目标看3305-3320，破位持有 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析 与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操 作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金4小时K线图显示，布林通道呈现开口上行姿态，短期走势明显偏弱。从均线系统来看，短期均线 呈多头排列形态，持续对金价构成压制，上行趋势得到进一步确认。操作上建议维持低多策略，重点关 注回调后的做多机会。日内短线交易思路以逢低 ...

分[析Ta师ble_Report] 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：f ...

今年以来，黄金表现相当亮眼，一度触及每盎司3500美元上方的历史新高。但近几周情况生变。受通胀 预期变化、美债收益率波动以及多元化避险需求的不断变化影响，金价波动加剧，5月中旬下探至3120 美元左右的低点。尽管金价已有所回升，但其波动也提醒投资者，黄金市场始终处于变化之中，尤其是 在当下不可预测的经济环境中。 一些专家就6月金价走势做出预测。总体而言，金价在6月可能出现三种情景。 情景一：金价趋稳 专家预计，6月大部分时间里，黄金市场可能保持相对稳定。一方面，下一次美联储会议要到6月17日才 会举行，届时央行可能决定上调或下调联邦基金利率。这可能会刺激或抑制黄金需求，具体取决于央行 的政策走向。 "这将是一个值得关注的重要事件，"Monetary Metals内容主管本·纳德尔斯坦（Ben Nadelstein）表 示，"任何政策方向的变化，甚至是围绕未来降息的基调转变，都可能影响黄金市场。" 截至5月27日，芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的FedWatch工具显示，6月利率变动的概率仅为 5.6%，因此，金价不太可能出现大幅波动。专家称，美联储会议后，拟议关税的实施可能影响金价。 "近几个月来，金 ...

周三（5月28日）欧洲时段，黄金价格周三陷入盘整偏弱格局，因美元延续反弹、市场风险偏好情绪升 温，打压避险需求。尽管亚盘初略有回升，但现货黄金未能站稳3300美元，显示上方阻力依旧强劲。特 朗普推迟对欧盟征收50%关税至7月9日，短期内增强了风险偏好情绪，削弱了黄金避险需求。不过，贸 易政策仍存在重大不确定性，加上美国财政状况持续恶化以及地缘政治风险持续，为金价提供部分支 撑。 此外，路透社透露的数据显示，4月份中国通过香港的黄金净进口量比3月份增加了一倍多，达到自2024 年3月以来的最高水平。同时，根据Prime Market Terminal的数据，货币市场表明，交易员预计年底前将 宽松46.5个基点。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利表示，在明确提高关税如何影响价格稳定之前，利率应保持不 变。这一系列因素相互交织，共同影响着当前复杂多变的金融市场格局。 在技术分析领域，周二金价走势出现关键变化，于跌破短期上升趋势线后呈现出进一步回调态势。当 前，金价正处于对4小时图200周期均线所在3295美元一线的测试阶段。值得注意的是，一旦该均线被有 效跌破，且形成具有确认意义的收盘状态，那么短期内的下行趋势或 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced significant volatility and entered a correction phase in late May 2025, with spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, marking a 1.4% decline in a single day and approximately 6% down from the historical high of $3,509.9 in April [1] Group 1: Downward Driving Factors - Decrease in safe-haven demand due to progress in US-China and EU-US tariff negotiations and easing Middle East tensions, leading to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets like US stocks [1] - Strengthening US dollar with the index rising above 99.6, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, and a reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts from 53 basis points to 47 basis points, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Technical selling pressure intensified after gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3,300, triggering stop-loss orders in program trading, with a 12% weekly decrease in COMEX gold futures open interest and a 35% drop in speculative long positions [3] Group 2: Market Chain Reactions - Divergence in consumption and investment, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping to 987 yuan per gram, over 100 yuan lower than the April peak, while A-share gold stocks experienced a single-day decline of over 3% [4] - Global largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) increased holdings by 28 tons, indicating long-term investment interest, while short-term trading funds accelerated withdrawals, with COMEX gold put options reaching a historical high [5] Group 3: Future Trend Assessment - Short-term risks include potential declines to the $3,135 range if the $3,280 support level is breached, with extreme scenarios testing the $3,000 mark, and increased market volatility expected ahead of the Federal Reserve's June rate decision and the US core PCE index release [7] - Long-term support logic includes a 170% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q1 2025 and the introduction of gold weight in BRICS countries' settlement mechanisms providing structural support [8] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Prioritize purchasing from Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market or promotional brand products, avoiding high-premium gold jewelry with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram [9] - Ordinary investors are advised to gradually build positions in gold ETFs or bank accumulation gold, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% of household assets, while leveraged traders should be cautious of liquidity risks in US debt markets [10] Group 5: Technical Focus Points - Key support levels identified at $3,280 (EMA20 period moving average) and $3,135 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level), with resistance levels at $3,342 (May 27 opening price) and $3,365 (downward trend line resistance) [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].