Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the iron ore industry is ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the i2601 contract rose 1.13%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been confirmed, and high - level Sino - US talks have increased the risk appetite of the financial market. In September, the black metal industry enters the peak season, downstream demand recovery may support the stabilization and rebound of black metals. The hot metal production is still at a medium - high level, and steel mills have a demand for raw material replenishment before the festival, which strongly supports the iron ore price. The iron ore price may generally continue the volatile and upward trend [5][6][31] Summary by Directory 1. Disk Analysis - This part includes futures price (including futures seat net position analysis and basis), spread analysis, and position analysis, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [7][10][11] 2. Important Market Information - On September 18, the Iron Ore Working Committee of the China Iron and Steel Association held an iron ore working meeting in Beijing to analyze the current iron ore market situation, study recent key tasks, and arrange the upcoming launch of the import iron ore port spot price index by the Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center. Representatives from domestic steel producers and iron ore trading companies attended the meeting [15] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 per ton from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,082.9 million tons, a decrease of 51.4 million tons from the previous month, and Brazil's was 3,235.7 million tons, an increase of 535 million tons from the first half of the month [18][21] 4. Demand - side Situation - This part involves the daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement volume, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [22][23][25] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills increased. 15 production lines were under maintenance (10 more than last week), and 10 were restarted (2 more than last week). The production affected by maintenance was 29.96 million tons last week and is expected to be 25.48 million tons next week. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.75%; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 48.91%; the daily average hot metal production was 241.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.19 million tons. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has entered a decisive stage, with the first - batch mining operations of Blocks 1 and 2 officially launched, and the annual output is planned to reach 60 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13,801.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.39 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 339.17 million tons, an increase of 7.89 million tons [28][29][30] 6. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, the Fed's interest rate cut and high - level Sino - US talks have increased market risk appetite. From an industrial perspective, in September, the black metal industry enters the peak season, downstream demand recovery may support the stabilization and rebound of black metals, and the high - level hot metal production and pre - festival raw material replenishment demand of steel mills strongly support the iron ore price. The iron ore price may generally continue the volatile and upward trend [6][31] 7. Operation Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to take a bullish view on dips; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, consider selling deep out - of - the - money put options [6][32]

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that rubber prices will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract trading in the range of 15,000 - 16,500. The supply side is affected by the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas, and the expected increase in raw material output in the future suppresses the raw material prices. The cost support has weakened, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, so the natural rubber inventory is unlikely to see a significant reduction. On the demand side, although some enterprises are short of goods, the overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises may control production flexibly. As the holiday approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds increases, and the macro - sentiment of commodities weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan to 14,700 yuan, a decline of 0.68%. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 65 to - 835. - The price of Thai - standard mixed rubber decreased by 250 yuan to 14,750 yuan, a decline of 1.67%. The non - standard price difference decreased by 215 to - 785, a decline of 37.72%. - The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.60 Thai baht per kilogram to 51.05 Thai baht per kilogram, a decline of 1.16%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market increased by 0.10 to 56.30, an increase of 0.18% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to 15, a decline of 50.00%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to 5, a decline of 66.67%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 to - 20, an increase of 55.56% [1]. Production and Consumption Data - In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons or 1.61% compared with the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons or 12.09%. India's production was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons or 2.17%. China's production was 101,300 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 73.66%, an increase of 0.20 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles was 65.66%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 10.2954 million tons, an increase of 859,000 tons or 9.10%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63.01 million pieces, a decrease of 3.64 million pieces or 5.46% [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 10,020 tons to 592,275 tons, a decline of 1.66%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,411 tons to 44,553 tons, a decline of 3.07% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental problem of over - supply still exists. Although the manufacturers' inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and the over - supply still exists compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Glass**: The spot market has good transactions, and the inventory has decreased this week. However, the inventory of some middle - stream enterprises in some regions remains high. The deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak, and the operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass is continuously low. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. The industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply problem. It is necessary to track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - **Glass**: The price of glass 2505 increased by 15 yuan to 1343 yuan, an increase of 1.13%. The price of glass 2509 increased by 18 yuan to 1405 yuan, an increase of 1.30%. The 05 basis decreased by 15 to - 193, a decline of 8.43%. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash 2505 increased by 7 yuan to 1407 yuan, an increase of 0.50%. The price of soda ash 2509 increased by 12 yuan to 1454 yuan, an increase of 0.86%. The 05 basis decreased by 7 to - 107, a decline of 7.00% [3]. Supply - The soda ash mining rate decreased by 2.02 percentage points to 85.53%. The weekly production of soda ash decreased by 15,000 tons to 745,700 tons, a decline of 2.02%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,000 tons to 159,500 tons, a decline of 0.47%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. Inventory - The glass inventory decreased by 675,000 tons to 60.908 million tons, a decline of 1.10%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 1.7556 million tons, a decline of 2.33%. The soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 614,900 tons, an increase of 10.69% [3]. Real - Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of construction area was 0.05%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 0.22%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The year - on - year growth rate of sales area was - 6.55%, a decrease of 6.50 percentage points [3]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. The current average daily shipment volume is still below 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan per cubic meter has a high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2511 increased by 3.5 yuan to 805 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.44%. The price of log 2601 increased by 2 yuan to 818.5 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.24%. The price of log 2603 increased by 1 yuan to 825 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 0.12%. The price of log 2605 remained unchanged at 828 yuan per cubic meter [4]. - The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15. The 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20. The 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55. The 01 - contract basis decreased by 66.5 to - 68.5 [4]. Import Cost and Shipping - The import theoretical cost was 796.96 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan, an increase of 0%. - The number of ships departing from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3 to 44, a decline of 6.38% [4]. Inventory and Demand - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 80,000 cubic meters to 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The average daily shipment volume of logs increased by 0.17 million cubic meters to 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 3% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance will gradually become looser. The expectation of large - scale production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises during the flat - and - low - water period is at the end of October, so the expected surplus in October is more obvious and will narrow again in November. At the same time, the increase in production costs in the southwest during the flat - and - low - water period raises the average industry cost, giving positive sentiment to the market. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will continue to lack upward driving force in the short term and may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan and Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 45, a decline of 89.89%. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan. The basis decreased by 97 to - 202, a decline of 380.95%. - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon remained unchanged at 8,800 yuan. The basis decreased by 400 to 295, a decline of 57.55% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 35 to - 50, a decline of 233.33%. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 5 to - 390, a decline of 1.30%. The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 to 5. The 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 30 to 10, an increase of 150.00% [5]. Fundamental Data - **Production**: The national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, an increase of 47,400 tons or 14.01%. Xinjiang's production was 169,700 tons, an increase of 19,400 tons or 12.91%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons or 41.19%. Sichuan's production was 53,700 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons or 10.72% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The national operating rate was 55.87%, an increase of 3.26 percentage points or 6.20%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.61%, an increase of 8.02 percentage points or 15.25%. Yunnan's operating rate was 47.39%, an increase of 14.50 percentage points or 44.09%. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.29%, an increase of 7.33 percentage points or 19.83% [5]. - **Downstream Production**: The production of organic silicon DMC was 223,100 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons or 11.66%. The production of polysilicon was 131,700 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons or 23.31%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 615,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or - 1.60%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons or 8.32% [5]. Inventory Change - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 0.13 tons to 12.04 tons, a decline of 1.07%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.16 tons to 3.10 tons, an increase of 5.45%. The factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan increased by 0.01 tons to 2.29 tons, an increase of 0.44%. The social inventory increased by 0.40 tons to 54.30 tons, an increase of 0.74% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the industry self - discipline meeting was held again to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises have production - cut plans in the future. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and the low inventory of some enterprises (the inventory distribution among enterprises is uneven) provide support for the price increase of polysilicon enterprises. Currently, low - price resources in the polysilicon market are scarce and are being snapped up, while high - price resources still face some resistance from downstream. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 50 yuan to 52,650 yuan, an increase of 0.10%. The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan. The basis of N - type material increased by 555 yuan to - 50, an increase of 91.74% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 505 yuan to 52,700 yuan, a decline of 0.95%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 130 to 120, an increase of 1300.00%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract decreased by 50 to - 2590, a decline of 1.97% [6]. Fundamental Data - **Weekly Data**: The production of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, an increase of 0.04 GW or 0.29%. The production of polysilicon was 3.10 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 0.64%. - **Monthly Data**: The production of polysilicon was 131.7 kilotons, an increase of 24.9 kilotons or 23.31%. The import volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, an increase of 0.03 kilotons or 40.30%. The export volume of polysilicon was 0.22 kilotons, an increase of 0.01 kilotons or 5.96%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.11 kilotons, a decrease of 0.02 kilotons or - 14.92% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of polysilicon decreased by 1.5 kilotons to 20.4 kilotons, a decline of 6.85%. The inventory of silicon wafers increased by 0.32 GW to 16.87 GW, an increase of 1.93%. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 7900 hands, an increase of 0.25% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of casting aluminum alloy showed a volatile and weak trend with a phased decline. With the callback of aluminum prices, the willingness of scrap aluminum traders to ship increased, and the market circulation improved marginally. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry continued to rise month - on - month, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The demand continued a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday inventory - building demand of downstream enterprises provided some support for the orders of recycled aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of casting aluminum alloy will maintain a high - level volatile trend [6]. - As of September 19, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 13.22 million tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory pressure remained high. The supply shortage of raw materials persisted, and the domestic automobile sales in the second week of September decreased year - on - year. However, the "trade - in" policy had a prominent effect, and the fourth batch of funds would be issued in October as planned, which was conducive to stabilizing consumer confidence and boosting automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the automobile sales were expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The report presents the price differences (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest of casting aluminum alloy [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive spread for casting aluminum alloy, including fixed costs (such as delivery and transaction fees) and floating costs (such as storage fees and capital costs). The total cost is 77 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The calculated total cost of spot - futures arbitrage is 20,614.5 yuan/ton, including costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs [13][14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference shows a trend of decline [16][21][26]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has converged significantly. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy has strengthened and shows certain seasonal laws. The weekly operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has increased, while the monthly operating rate has decreased slightly. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its proportion in different regions are also presented. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [33][38][43]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also analyzed. The production and its proportion in different regions are provided, as well as the factory inventory and its proportion [62][63][64]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances, as well as the year - on - year change of PPI for auto parts and the monthly value of the automobile inventory warning index [69][70].

Real Estate - New home sales in Wind 20 cities increased by 18.26% week-on-week and 38.03% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing over 40% growth compared to last year[7] - Shanghai's second-hand home sales surged by 84.06% year-on-year, while Shenzhen's increased by 114.04%[22] Investment - Commodity prices generally rose, with rebar prices increasing by 0.70% to 3299 yuan/ton, and cement price index up by 0.62%[31] - Glass futures prices rose by 3.15% to 1212 yuan/ton, and asphalt prices increased by 1.35%[31] Production - Steel mill blast furnace operating rate slightly increased to 84% while oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 34.4%[44] - PTA operating rate rose by 2.3 percentage points to 77.29%[50] Consumption - Movie box office revenue increased significantly by 131.94% to 830.29 million yuan, with metro ridership and domestic flights also exceeding seasonal expectations[51] - Average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.01% to 19.48 yuan/kg, while vegetable prices fell by 1.78%[61] Export - SCFI index dropped significantly, while BDI index increased, indicating mixed signals in export demand[58]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong performance of the Kerry Jinling Huating project, which achieved a subscription rate of 190% and set a new record for new home registration prices in Shanghai at 32.68 million yuan per square meter [1][5][10] - Kerry Properties reported a contract sales amount of 16.186 billion HKD in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 130%, and a reduction in the debt ratio by 3.1 percentage points [1][8][9] - The company aims to reduce its debt ratio to the low 30% range by the end of 2026 through the sales proceeds from the Jinling Huating project and other projects in Hong Kong and mainland China [1][9][10] Group 2 - The high-end residential market in Shanghai is experiencing a surge, with 12 out of 35 upcoming projects having a registration average price exceeding 100,000 yuan per square meter [2][10] - The scarcity of land in core areas of Shanghai is driving demand for high-end properties, with significant sales recorded in various luxury projects [10][12] - The market is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to supportive policies and the concentration of high-end project supply, which is likely to lead to increased transaction volumes [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.65%. After the Fed's interest - rate cut announcement, the overall trend was volatile and upward [4]. - The market has digested the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The expectation of continuous interest rate cuts has cooled, and risk appetite has declined. Some funds have taken profits, weakening the support for lead prices. The preliminary progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations has a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrates continues to decline. The production of primary lead decreases this week. The production of recycled lead is restricted by environmental inspections, low waste battery recycling efficiency, and the off - season of battery scrapping [4]. - On the demand side, the demand for automotive starting batteries is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand in emerging energy - storage fields is promising. However, the overall demand has not increased significantly, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state [4]. - In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, have decreased, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead decreases slightly, and demand increases slowly. The lead price is expected to consolidate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward in the range of 16,800 - 17,300, with a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend this week, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.65% [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. The supply of primary and recycled lead decreases, while the demand in the lead - acid battery field is expected to increase. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and downstream enterprises are still waiting and seeing. The inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward in the range of 16,800 - 17,300, with a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead rose slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 18, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $1,938 per ton, the active - contract lead futures price was 17,145 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.71 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Both domestic and foreign futures premiums and discounts weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the domestic futures premium and discount was - 120 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $44.05 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign lead inventories and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the total lead inventory was 5,960 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 222,675 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons; the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 49,375 tons, a decrease of 10,362 tons [28][33]. 3.3 Industry Situation Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 11, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 81.52%, a decrease of 3.67% from last week; the weekly output was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from last week [19]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 11, 2025, the domestic production of recycled lead in major production areas was 13,200 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 34.85%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. It is expected to recover next week [23][26]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the refined lead export volume was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The refined lead import volume was 3,417 tons. The lead alloy import volume was 12,784 tons. The lead concentrate import volume was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total lead ingot import volume was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons (106.70%) and a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons (41.98%) [37]. Demand Side - **Processing Fee**: As of September 11, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrates was 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee of imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In August 2025, the total automobile sales were 2.857 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new - car sales in August and 45.5% from January to August [46]. - **Battery Price**: As of September 18, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 20,150 yuan per ton [49].

Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector showed resilience amidst a broader market decline, with significant gains in cobalt and lithium prices driven by supply constraints and strong demand [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 19, the market experienced a downturn with all three major indices closing lower, while the energy metals sector rose, with the energy metals index increasing by 3.23% [1]. - Key stocks in the energy metals sector, including Ganfeng Lithium, Tengyuan Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, and Hanrui Cobalt, saw substantial gains, with Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit and others rising over 3% [1]. Group 2: Cobalt Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that cobalt prices are on a strong upward trend, influenced by a decline in production from smelting companies and a temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to significantly reduce global cobalt supply [1]. - The anticipated tightening of cobalt supply is likely to disrupt the previously expected surplus situation by 2025, providing support for cobalt prices [1]. Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - The current period is characterized by a traditional demand peak, referred to as "golden September and silver October," leading to a robust purchasing demand from downstream material manufacturers [1]. - The demand growth for lithium is expected to outpace supply growth, providing a firm support for lithium prices during this peak demand season [1].

Group 1 - The new housing policy in Shenzhen has significantly lowered the purchasing threshold, activating various housing demands and expanding new home transaction hotspots from "single point explosion" to "multiple blooming" [1] - In the first week after the policy implementation, the top ten new home projects accounted for 55% of the total new home subscriptions, which dropped to 33% in the second week, indicating a broader distribution of transactions [1] - The average total price of new homes increased by 29% from 364 million yuan in the first week to 470 million yuan in the second week, driven by the entry of improvement demand into the market [1] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen also experienced similar trends, with the Luo Hu district showing the most significant impact from the new policy, with viewing and signing volumes increasing by 29% and over 25% respectively [2] - The traditional "Golden September" marketing season is currently underway, with many developers actively preparing to seize the policy window, leading to an expected acceleration in project launches [2] - The new policy is expected to significantly activate the market in the short term, with non-core areas experiencing both price and volume increases, while core areas show moderate recovery [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price trend of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract faces certain uncertainties due to bottlenecks on the supply - side, uncertainties on the demand - side, and inventory changes. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress in Myanmar [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.2 Variety Price - There are 12 Shanghai Tin futures contracts. The total trading volume of the variety is 79,845 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai Tin contracts is 55,467 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Tin contract 2510 is 23,007 lots [5][6] 2 Spot Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract today is 274,260 yuan/ton. The spot quotation of Shanghai Tin in the Yangtze River spot market on the same day is 274,260 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,720 yuan/ton [7] 3 Influence Factors - Supply - side: Although Myanmar's Wa State has obtained mining licenses, the rainy season hinders resumption of production, and Thailand prohibits over - land transit transportation. It is difficult to significantly increase production before November. The power negotiation deadlock in Congo - Kinshasa and the decline in ore grade in Australia also restrict supply, making the current Shanghai Tin spot market relatively tight [8] - Demand - side: Despite the expected "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market is still cautious about domestic consumption performance, and the demand release rhythm may be postponed. The tight supply situation supports the spot price above the futures price [8]