智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周五表示，美国总统特朗普最新公布的一轮关税计划使通 胀前景变得更加复杂，也令他更难支持特朗普所要求的降息措施。 过去几个月，在特朗普于4月暂缓执行双边高关税之后，市场对关税推升物价的担忧明显缓解，这也为 美联储未来再次降息铺平了道路。然而，随着特朗普政府宣布将于8月1日对部分加拿大进口商品征收 35%的关税、对巴西商品征收高达50%的关税，新的通胀担忧再度升温。古尔斯比指出，这些举措可能 迫使美联储维持"观望"立场，直到政策前景更加明朗。 "我希望我们重新去和企业交谈时，他们不会说'这又让我们回到了4月3日的情景'，"古尔斯比说，"但我 不确定，因为这一切刚刚发生。" 不过，特朗普对鲍威尔及美联储的公开批评、以及他对低利率政策的坚持，令美联储的前进方向更加复 杂。特朗普将在明年提名下一任美联储主席，目前市场猜测他将挑选一位倾向于宽松政策的候选人。 白宫经济顾问委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、财政部长斯科特·贝森特、现任美联储理事沃勒，以及前联储理 事凯文·沃什都被视为潜在热门人选。 本周四，白宫更进一步施压鲍威尔，要求其就美联储位于华盛顿总部翻修费用超支问题做出解释。 面对外 ...

我认为债券市场把鲍威尔视作"小丑" 白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：鲍威尔的利率至少比合适水平高50个基点。 35%的关税不适用于美加墨协定商品。 关税法案第232条的最终目的是巩固国防基础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on global markets, highlighting increased investor anxiety and potential economic repercussions in the U.S. and Europe [2][7][8]. Market Reactions - European stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Stoxx 600 and Stoxx 50 indices dropping over 1%, while U.S. stock indices also showed weakness, with the Dow Jones down 0.63% and the S&P 500 down 0.38% [2][5]. - Gold prices rebounded as a safe-haven asset, reaching $3,365.7 per ounce, a 1.2% increase, while silver surged 3.14% to $38.47 per ounce, the highest since September 2011 [10]. Economic Indicators - The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, which negatively affected the GBP/USD exchange rate [3][10]. - Analysts warn of rising inflation in the U.S. due to increased import costs from tariffs, predicting a rebound in core CPI to 3.3% in Q4 [4][16]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a phenomenon described as "tariff fatigue" [9][17]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in the trading volume of declining stocks, suggesting an overly optimistic market sentiment that may lead to a mild correction [13][15]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upcoming weeks will be critical in assessing the impact of tariffs on economic data, with potential implications for U.S. monetary policy and corporate earnings [16][17].

巴西总统卢拉：将努力阻止对巴西的关税生效。但如果美国关税生效，我们将予以报复。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

特朗普在关税截止日期前对各国表示：继续努力。 ...

美国总统特朗普：敦促各国在关税截止日期前继续努力工作。 ...

特朗普：可能在某个时候与巴西讨论关税问题。 ...

Trade Relations - Trump may discuss tariffs with Brazil at some point [1] - Brazil is not obligated to continue using the US dollar for trade [1] - Brazil is interested in creating a trade currency for international trade [1] - Brazil advocates for countries to trade in their own currencies [1] - Brazil calls on world leaders to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade [1]

Core Insights - The latest retail sales report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) indicates a slowdown in retail sales growth in June due to consumer concerns, marking the first monthly decline since February [1] - The seasonally adjusted total retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline decreased by 0.33% month-over-month in June, while year-over-year sales still grew by 3.19% [1] - Core retail sales (excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) also saw a month-over-month decline of 0.32% in June, with a year-over-year increase of 3.36% [1] Monthly Performance - The overall retail sales for the first half of the year increased by 4.66% year-over-year, while core retail sales rose by 4.93% [2] - The June decline is the first since February, when both total and core retail sales fell by 0.22% compared to January [2] Consumer Behavior - Matthew Shay, CEO of NRF, noted that long-term uncertainties surrounding the economy, tariffs, and trade policies are causing consumers to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach regarding household budgets [1] - Despite the economic slowdown, consumers still have the capacity to spend on necessities, but their psychological outlook is being affected [1] Category Performance - In June, seven categories experienced year-over-year growth, with digital products, sporting goods stores, and health and personal care stores leading the way [2] - Only one category showed month-over-month growth, while the rest declined [2] - Specific category performance includes: - Digital products: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth of 0.26% and a year-over-year surge of 24.11% [2] - Health and personal care stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.31% and year-over-year growth of 3.47% [3] - General merchandise stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.15% and year-over-year growth of 3.18% [4] - Food and beverage stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.13% and year-over-year growth of 2.59% [5] - Electronics and appliance stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 1.03% and year-over-year growth of 2.43% [6] - Furniture and home furnishings stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 1.04% and year-over-year decline of 1.14% [7] - Building materials and garden supplies stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.76% and year-over-year decline of 5.33% [8]

Group 1 - Brazil is a major exporter of coffee and orange juice [1] - Tariffs may increase domestic market supply and create a deflationary effect [1]