经济数据好坏参半，黄金走势扑朔迷离 周五(8月22日)亚市早盘，现货黄金基本持稳，现报3337美元/盎司附近。周四(8月21日)，现货黄金价格 小幅下跌0.3%，收于每盎司3338.45美元，而12月交割的美国期金也下滑0.2%，结算价报3386.50美元。 这一跌势的背后，是美元指数强势上涨0.45%，创下两周新高，使得以美元计价的黄金对海外买家变得 更加昂贵。 周四，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，仍预计今年仅降息一次，但承认经济不确定性大，政策需单向 推进以维持公信力。他指出当前利率"略微限制性"，经济增长相对温和，但明年可能反弹。 美联储主席鲍威尔预定周五在杰克逊霍尔举办的全球央行年会上，发表经济展望和美联储政策立场，预 计鲍威尔演讲将引发市场重大行情。 Marex分析师Edward Meir说："如果鲍威尔暗示9月降息，我不认为会发生太多变化，因为市场早就已经 预期这件事将发生。" Meir补充说："但如果鲍威尔说我们10月、11月或12月会再次降息，我想美元就有可能转弱，黄金就有 机会上涨。" Kitco Metals资深分析师Jim Wyckoff说："我认为，鲍威尔可能会略偏鸽派一点点，这将对黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows strong growth as the US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly reached a three - year high, but it may also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm due to inflation concerns [7]. - For the soybean sector, the rise in US soybean prices is driven by a Reuters report and a market rumor. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic and move with US soybean prices [8][10]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to oscillate and correct after the macro - sentiment cools down, as the driving force for the previous rise has weakened [11]. - The copper market lacks a clear driver, with a narrowing price range, but the downside support is relatively clear. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. - The PTA market has a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Indicators - The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, with the output and backlog of orders reaching highs since mid - 2022, and new orders reaching the highest since February 2024. The services PMI initial value was 55.4, a two - month low, and the composite PMI initial value was 55.4, a nine - month high [7]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analyses 3.2.1 Beans - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemption applications on Friday, and a supplementary rule on large refineries may be released next week. A market rumor said that China plans to buy US soybeans, driving up US soybean prices. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic [8][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous rise was due to the expected supply contraction of coking coal under anti - involution policies. Recently, the driving force has weakened as the policy window has passed, the macro - sentiment has cooled, the exchange has restricted positions and increased handling fees, and the actual supply remains high with weakening fundamentals. Coke's seventh price increase is expected to be implemented today, but steel mills' acceptance of price increases is decreasing [11]. 3.2.3 Copper - Macroscopically, the market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, overseas smelters are reducing production due to raw - material shortages and losses. The tight supply of recycled copper may also affect production. The domestic consumption season is approaching, and inventories are low. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. 3.2.4 PTA - The unexpected shutdown of the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant is expected to cause significant inventory reduction in August - September. The polyester device's operating rate has increased, and the PTA supply - demand relationship will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Other Commodity Trends - Gold is in high - level oscillation, and silver has a slight decline [19]. - Zinc is in a weak oscillation, and lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [19][33][36]. - Tin is in range - bound oscillation, and aluminum is in a range - bound state, with alumina slightly falling and cast aluminum alloy following electrolytic aluminum [19][40][43]. - Nickel is in low - level oscillation, and stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality [19][46][47]. - Lithium carbonate's weekly inventory is decreasing again, and it is in range - bound oscillation [19][53]. - Industrial silicon is affected by market news, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to this week's meeting information [19][57]. - Iron ore still has support as the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined [19][61]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [19][64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations [19][69]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [19][72]. - Logs are in repeated oscillations [75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].

Market Overview - The US stock market continued its downward trend, with the S&P 500 index declining for the fifth consecutive trading day as investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium [1] - All three major indices closed lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points (0.34%) to 44,785.50 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 25.61 points (0.40%) to 6,370.17 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 72.54 points (0.34%) to 21,100.31 points [1][2] Technology Sector - The technology sector, a key driver of the US stock market's rise this year, faced profit-taking pressure recently, with major stocks like Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon experiencing declines [3] - The US Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.43%, with Apple and Nvidia down by 0.49% and 0.24%, respectively [3] - Concerns over high valuations and macroeconomic uncertainties have led to fears that the adjustment in tech stocks could evolve into systemic risks [3] Retail Sector - Walmart's earnings report highlighted structural challenges in the retail sector, as the company reported a second-quarter sales figure that exceeded expectations but adjusted earnings per share of $0.68 fell short of the anticipated $0.74, marking the first miss in three years [5] - The challenges faced by Walmart include increased promotional efforts, rising costs, and diminishing marginal returns from e-commerce expansion, raising investor concerns about the prolonged path to profit recovery in the retail sector [5] Chinese Stocks - In contrast to the weakness in US tech stocks, Chinese assets saw gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.35%, and companies like Xpeng and NIO recording increases of 11% and 9%, respectively [7] - This trend is attributed to short-term capital rotation towards risk assets and international events, including the US Department of Justice's investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and the trade agreement framework between the EU and the US [7] Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are facing challenges, with bets on a 25 basis point cut dropping from 99.9% to 79% [9] - This shift is linked to internal policy disagreements within the Fed, as most officials remain cautious about inflation and labor market conditions, while dissenting opinions reveal deep divisions [9][10]

Economic Data Summary - In the first seven months of the year, China's total social financing increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. As of the end of July, M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, M1 by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing increased by 9% [1] - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year, with real estate development investment declining by 12% [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February [2] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 15, with a six-month term. This, combined with a previous operation, resulted in a total of 300 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity injection for the month [2] - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on maintaining ample liquidity and supporting sectors such as technology innovation and small enterprises [3] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. and China agreed to suspend the implementation of additional tariffs for 90 days starting August 12, with the U.S. committing to adjust tariffs on Chinese goods [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary clarified that he did not intend to pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite previous comments suggesting a potential series of rate cuts [3] Industry Performance - In the real estate sector, land transaction area decreased, leading to a drop in transaction prices for commercial housing and a weakening of second-hand housing prices [8] - The automotive sector maintained high sales levels, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 12.08% and 6.10% year-on-year, respectively [9] Market Trends - The A-share market saw a rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.58%, driven by positive inflation data and the suspension of tariffs between the U.S. and China [21] - In the bond market, credit bond rates increased, while government bond rates showed a mixed trend, reflecting market risk preferences and economic data pressures [31][33] Commodity Prices - Agricultural product prices saw a rebound, with vegetable prices rising and fruit prices declining. Pork prices fell to 20.05 yuan [14] - Industrial product prices showed mixed trends, with coal, copper, aluminum, and steel prices rising, while oil and cement prices fell [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

来源：市场资讯 8月21日，昨日周二我们认为，市场对美联储9月降息的押注有所减少，降息预期降温，以及俄乌冲突出 现和平的希望，抑制避险需求，这对黄金构成压制，不过由于美联储9月份仍大概率降息25个基点，以 及特朗普的关税政策吸引避险买盘，仍对金价形成支撑，限制进一步回落的空间，因此操作上建议大 家，上方压力关注3345和3358美元，下方支撑关注3330和3323美元。 从之后的走势看，欧盘盘中，黄金继续震荡回升，刷新当日新高3345美元，遇阻后金价震荡回落，跌势 在美盘开盘后进一步扩大，最低跌至3314美元企稳。周三开盘，黄金进一步下探，跌至3311美元企稳， 目前价格小幅回升，暂时交投于3324美元。总体来看，黄金承压震荡，金价在我们给出的3345美元压力 位置遇阻下跌，短线波动比预期要弱。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，本周黄金继续承压，日内刷新近三周新低，主要受到三方面的因素影响： 其一，是上周中美经贸会谈，将关税休战期限延长90天，缓解了市场对美国总统特朗普新一轮关税措施 的担忧情绪；其二，是美国总统特朗普推动俄乌领导人会晤，希望加速结束冲突，美国白宫表示俄乌领 导人双边会谈筹备中，和平谈判加 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the copper and aluminum markets, indicating that the copper market is experiencing a "split" due to tariff policies, which could lead to a potential return of copper processing to the U.S. [18][31] - The aluminum market is facing tight supply conditions, with fluctuations in alumina prices significantly affecting profitability [49][50] - The report anticipates that the copper supply-demand gap will support long-term price stability, with projected deficits in the coming years [44][46] Summary by Sections Copper and Aluminum Price Trends - The report reviews the price trends of copper and aluminum, noting significant fluctuations influenced by tariff expectations and supply chain disruptions [12][15] - Copper prices have been affected by U.S. tariff announcements, leading to a drop in both LME and domestic copper prices [19][31] Tariff Impacts on Copper Market - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper products, which is expected to impact the domestic copper processing industry significantly [19][31] - The report suggests that the tariff policy may lead to a return of copper processing to the U.S., with potential increases in domestic processing costs [31] Supply Constraints in the Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is experiencing supply constraints, with alumina prices being a core factor affecting profitability [50][54] - The report notes that while there are disruptions in alumina supply from Guinea, overall imports have increased, indicating a gradual recovery [50][51] Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook for Copper - The report projects a supply-demand gap for copper, with deficits expected in 2025 and 2026, which could support higher price levels in the long term [44][46] - The global refined copper production is expected to increase, but the growth rate may be limited due to declining ore grades and production challenges [44][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].