Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The downward pressure on the domestic supply side has eased. The price is likely to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the price may fluctuate and recover. In the medium term, the supply glut restricts the upside potential, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy - driven factors are difficult to have an immediate impact. The cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The market is likely to face inventory accumulation pressure in November, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market may maintain a weak and oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to remain in a high - level range oscillation, maintaining a forward market structure. For trading strategies, consider going long around 50,000 yuan/ton in the futures market and holding or closing profitable positions for sell put options in the options market [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.76% to 293,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71% to 95.67 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6,229 tons, while social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7,654 tons [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.27% to 22,380 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 4,280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the export volume increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58% to 15.10 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% to 4.7 million tons [7]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49% to 86,235 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 858 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80% to 70.49 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.09% to 11.06 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.90% to 117,750 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 3.57% to 4,350 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110,810 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39,795 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.18% to 253,482 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.76% to 235 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.89% to 49.29 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 0.83% to 6.44 million tons [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.09% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 1,868 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11% to 61.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% to 54.6 million tons [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton, and the Foshan broken primary aluminum scrap - to - refined spread remained unchanged at 1,749 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: The regenerated aluminum alloy weekly social inventory increased by 1.44% to 5.65 million tons [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100% to 0 [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.80 million tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.02% to 20.76 million tons [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.16% to 92,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 1.65% to 1,071 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons in October [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The N - type polysilicon spot price decreased by 0.10% to 52,250 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 23,315 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12% to 2.71 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons in October [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50% to 27.10 million tons, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 3.07% to 7,270 [22].

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently reported at 1.3106, with a slight decline of 0.01% from the previous close, influenced by the stabilization of the USD index and anticipation of upcoming U.S. economic data [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP report indicates weak employment figures, suggesting potential upward momentum for the GBP if subsequent data remains weak [1] - The U.K. retail sales data for October exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, which supports the GBP [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 82.9%, putting downward pressure on the USD and benefiting the GBP [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The GBP is in a narrow consolidation phase, with short-term support at 1.3099 and potential upward movement towards 1.3115 and 1.3130 if key levels are maintained [2] - Current market liquidity is tightening, and a breakthrough at key resistance levels could trigger a trend [2] - Technical indicators are neutral to bullish, with RSI at 51 nearing strong territory, and MACD showing no signs of weakening [2]

短线思路 首先关注4100美元这个由阻力转换而来的关键支撑位，以及上方的4130-4150美元等阻力位。 若金价直接强势突破4130美元，激进者可考虑轻仓追多，止损10-15美金，目标4150-4168-4188-4210。 稳健者等待金价回落至更稳固的支撑位（如4070-4080区域）可布局多，止损10美金。目标跟激进者点位一样 今日重点关注 今天（11月25日）市场将迎来一系列重要的美国经济数据，它们可能成为黄金价格新的催化剂。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 昨日两大因素共同推动黄金上涨:市场对美联储降息的预期急剧升温，以及美元和美国国债收益率的走低。 美联储降息预期 美联储官员沃勒 (Waller) 和威廉姆斯 (Williams) 发表鸽派言论，市场对12月降息概率的预期从上周的约42%大幅升至76%-79%。 利好黄金 美元与美债收益率 美元指数小幅波动，美国国债收益率（特别是10年期）下跌，降低了持有黄金的机会成本。 形成支撑。 技术面突破 金价成功突破4100美元关键心理和技术阻力位，吸引多头技术性买盘入场。 助力上涨 今日操作建议及点位 在经历了昨 ...

国内金开始收获了，上周沪金（2602合约）强调持有的925多单，融通金强调持有的922多单，截至到目前为止，沪金上周至947附近，融通金上周至941附 近，多单已经有非常不错的利润，周一再次给出沪金934多单，融通金929多单也有不错的利润，这里我们分阶段处理，934多单，929多单可以在今天高点出 局，底仓沪金925多单，融通金922多单可继续持有，看本周是否能达到沪金965，融通金960的预期，如果走出单边，本周可以达到预期目标点，所以，本周 还有继续做多看涨的可能，这波利润较大，大家注意跟上节奏。 国际白银同样在趋势中走出上涨空间，目前最高在51.3，前面强调过，白银预计在48.5/52.5区间看待，所以，周期性的交易就持有多单即可，目前多单利润 不错，可继续持有多单，坚持看到52.5附近，如果在本周破位52.5，那么就可以形成单边走势，上方可见54前高，所以，这个周期白银是一个持单的过程， 大家耐心等待底仓多单即可。 沪银（2602合约）坚持的多单效果明显了，11750多单，11840多单的利润还是扩大，目前沪银收盘在12200附近，大家可以适当的调整仓位，再继续上看更 大的利润。这个周期的多单维持看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is repetitive yet stable, and base metals are in a state of oscillatory consolidation. In the short - to - medium - term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, but repetitive macro - expectations and average demand limit price increases. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For specific metals: copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; alumina prices will remain under pressure and oscillate; aluminum prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term and may increase in the medium - term; aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate strongly in both the short and medium - term; zinc prices will oscillate and may decline in the long - term; lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly; nickel prices will oscillate weakly; stainless steel prices will oscillate within a range; tin prices will oscillate strongly [7][11][13][14][17][19][21][23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - Information: The US government ended a 43 - day shutdown. Some Fed officials have a hawkish stance. In October, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month (a 2.62% decline), and increased by 9.63% year - on - year. As of November 24, copper inventory dropped by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons. There was an accident at a Congolese copper mine [6][7]. - Logic: The macro - situation is uncertain. Copper supply is tightening due to supply disruptions and reduced scrap copper recycling. Demand is weak but the acceptance of copper prices by downstream industries is increasing [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [7]. Alumina - Information: On November 24, alumina prices in different regions showed some changes. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the alumina warehouse receipt increased by 3,606 tons [8]. - Logic: Macro - sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. The supply contraction needs further observation, with strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak, but more funds are starting to focus on alumina [9]. - Outlook: Alumina prices will remain in an oscillatory state [11]. Aluminum - Information: On November 24, the SMM AOO average price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories decreased. In October, China's net import of primary aluminum increased. New aluminum plants in Indonesia have production plans [12]. - Logic: The Fed is divided, and the domestic economy is weakly stable. The domestic supply capacity is high, and overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. Terminal demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing [13]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term and may increase in the medium - term [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Information: In October, China's scrap aluminum imports increased by 19% year - on - year. The EU plans to introduce a new rule on restricting scrap aluminum exports in 2026 [14][15]. - Logic: The cost of scrap aluminum is high. Supply is affected by various factors, and demand is improving marginally. Social and warehouse inventories are increasing [14]. - Outlook: Aluminum alloy prices will oscillate strongly in both the short and medium - term [14]. Zinc - Information: On November 24, spot zinc prices in different regions had different premiums. As of November 24, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons. A mine in Australia delayed high - grade zinc ore mining [15][16]. - Logic: The macro - situation is repetitive but stable. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and domestic zinc ingot exports have opened up. Demand is entering the off - season [17]. - Outlook: Zinc prices will oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [17]. Lead - Information: On November 24, scrap battery prices and the primary - secondary lead price difference remained unchanged. Lead ingot social inventory decreased. Some lead smelters are under maintenance [18]. - Logic: Spot premiums decreased slightly. Supply is affected by environmental protection, and demand is at the end of the peak season [18]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate strongly [19]. Nickel - Information: On November 24, LME nickel inventory decreased by 468 tons, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 708 tons. The acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel assets by Minmetals is under review. An Indonesian nickel company cut production [20]. - Logic: The market sentiment dominates. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the inventory is accumulating [21]. - Outlook: Nickel prices will oscillate weakly [21]. Stainless Steel - Information: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 542 tons. Nickel iron prices declined. A steel mill's high - nickel pig iron tender price decreased [22]. - Logic: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. Stainless steel production may decrease in November, and inventory is accumulating [23]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices will oscillate within a range [23]. Tin - Information: On November 24, LME tin warehouse receipts increased by 20 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 22 tons. The average price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 200 yuan/ton [24]. - Logic: Tin supply is tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar, reduced exports from Indonesia, and unstable production in Africa. Demand is increasing in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries [24]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24]. 3.2行情监测 No relevant information provided other than the section titles. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 24, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and the non - ferrous metals index all showed certain percentage increases. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily increase of 0.43%, a 5 - day increase of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.13%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.39% [150][151].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美联储委员再放鸽，继续助长12月降息预期，金价回升；美国三大股指 全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌3.66个基点报4.027%；美元指数涨0.05%报100.20，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1068；COMEX黄金期货涨1.33%报4133.8美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货927.36，现货926，基差-1.36，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it's possible that key figures will turn dovish in the next two weeks. The US GDP in the third and fourth quarters is expected to face pressure due to various factors such as the decline in core shipments in August, rising unemployment rate in September, and weakening manufacturing PMI in November [5]. - Domestic: The domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of the debt - resolution surplus quota may bring marginal benefits to infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter. The central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term [5]. - Asset Views: Due to the Fed's divergence on the December rate cut, the hawkish tone of the October meeting minutes, and the better - than - expected September non - farm data, the December rate - cut expectation was once suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market sentiment was boosted. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in the fourth quarter and pay attention to the opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.15% daily and weekly, fell 4.24% monthly and 3.96% quarterly, and rose 13.11% this year. The SSE 50 futures fell 0.07% daily and weekly, 2.35% monthly and 1.49% quarterly. The CSI 500 futures rose 0.85% daily and weekly, fell 5.735% monthly and 6.25% quarterly, and rose 19.93% this year. The CSI 1000 futures rose 1.10% daily and weekly, fell 3.71% monthly and 4.20% quarterly, and rose 21.31% this year [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.014 daily and weekly, fell 0.08% monthly, rose 0.134 quarterly, and fell 0.54% this year. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily and weekly, fell 0.16% monthly, rose 0.25% quarterly, and fell 0.61% this year [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat daily, rose 0.100% weekly, 0.42% monthly, and 2.383% quarterly. The euro - US dollar exchange rate had no change daily and weekly, fell 23 pips monthly and 221 pips quarterly, and rose 1160 pips this year [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was flat daily, weekly, and quarterly, fell 1 bp monthly, and fell 30 bp this year. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rose 0.3 bp daily, was flat weekly, rose 2.1 bp monthly, fell 44 bp quarterly, and rose 0.1 bp this year [2]. - **Hot Industries**: The national defense and military industry rose 4.45% daily and weekly, fell 0.31% monthly and 2.95% quarterly, and rose 17.50% this year. The media industry rose 3.53% daily and 3.50% weekly, rose 0.68% monthly, fell 5.07% quarterly, and rose 30.89% this year [2]. - **Overseas Markets**: NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 1.834 daily, fell 2.93% weekly, 4.76% monthly, 7.13% quarterly, and 19.33% this year. ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.05% daily, 2.77% weekly, 3.21% monthly, 5.50% quarterly, and 16.469% this year [2]. - **Domestic Commodities**: The container shipping to Europe route rose 0.80% daily and weekly, rose 0.97% monthly, fell 4.52% quarterly, and fell 30.50% this year. Gold rose 0.36% daily and weekly, rose 0.58% monthly, 6.10% quarterly, and 50.634% this year [3]. 3.2 Short - term Market Judgments - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and Treasury bond futures to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to move sideways [6]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe route and steel are expected to move sideways, and iron ore is also expected to trade within a range [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials such as coke, coking coal, and silicon iron are expected to move sideways, with some low - valued varieties having potential for a phased rebound [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to move sideways, with aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to decline in a volatile way [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline in a volatile manner. Most other energy and chemical products are expected to move sideways [8]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products are expected to move sideways, with some such as soybean oil and sugar expected to decline in a volatile way [8].

Group 1 - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is impacting global capital markets, with a focus on AI development trends. The weakening of the external market is primarily due to the declining expectation of a rate cut in December, which also indirectly affects the A-share market. There is widespread concern and intense discussion regarding whether there is excessive investment in the AI industry [1] - The A-share market is currently in a typical year-end consolidation phase, characterized by sector rotation, unclear main lines, and balanced allocation [1] - On Monday, both markets experienced a slight rebound, but trading volume significantly decreased. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower, dipped, and then rebounded slightly, closing still below the short-term moving averages. The Shenzhen Component Index rebounded stronger than the Shanghai index but also failed to reach the short-term moving average [1] Group 2 - The trading volume on that day was around 1.7 trillion yuan, which is a noticeable decrease compared to the previous Friday. Market hotspots were mainly concentrated in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and military industries [1] - In terms of investment style, small and mid-cap stocks outperformed, while large-cap blue-chip stocks showed weak performance [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index encountered technical resistance and adjusted downward, returning to the consolidation range seen in August and September. After hitting technical resistance in mid-November, the index suddenly adjusted downward, breaking through multiple short-term moving averages [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, driven by dovish signals from Fed officials and increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 1%, reaching $4,136 per ounce [1] - Gold ETF (159834) increased by over 1.6%, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 51% [1] - The latest scale of Gold ETF is 1.265 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 785 million yuan since the beginning of the year, representing an increase of 163.5% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 82.9%, up from 69.4% the previous day, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 17.1% [1] - Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that gold prices are supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut amid dovish comments from central bank officials [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is rising due to geopolitical uncertainties and trade negotiation developments [1] - Debon Securities indicated that the fundamental logic for rising gold prices remains unchanged, driven by global debt expansion, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and a declining real interest rate cycle [1] - The gold ETF closely tracks the spot price of gold contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, offering high transparency and liquidity, supporting T+0 intraday trading [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production - increasing stance, and the global economy and demand are not good. With the new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine attracting market attention and the geopolitical tension risk easing, international oil prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but the rise of the US stock market has pushed international oil prices to end higher after a decline [1]. - **Silver**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, risk appetite is boosted, and the bullish attribute of precious metals increases. Silver is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the divergence between gold and silver should be noted [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand situation of iron ore is improving marginally, and the demand resilience supports the rebound of ore prices. However, considering the drag of off - season steel, ore prices are expected to have room for correction. It is recommended to combine range trading and selling at high prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: In the off - season, steel production may decline seasonally. Although the production of manganese silicon has been decreasing recently, the overall supply contraction is limited due to the upcoming new production capacity. The market inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [4]. - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently, inventory is still decreasing, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. Short - term steel prices may fluctuate upwards, but the weak off - season demand may limit the upward space [5]. - **Rubber**: The domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and suspension season, and the supply shortage expectation is rising. However, the arrival of overseas ships is expected to increase, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The clearance process of Australian rapeseed arrivals has become the core focus of the market. The spot market faces the double situation of slow trading rhythm and strong inventory reduction pressure. Short - term rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The current market supply pressure persists. Although the pickling demand in some regions supports pig prices to a certain extent, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. The LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Domestic palm oil has continued to arrive in large quantities, leading to inventory accumulation, which is bearish for palm oil. However, the strong willingness of traders and oil mills to support prices provides some support. The near - month contract is expected to run weakly in the short term [9]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The winning bid rate of the Treasury cash is lower than the previous period, indicating a significant decline in inter - bank capital costs and a continuous loosening of the capital market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the medium term [10]. - **Gold**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are increasing. Gold is expected to fluctuate upwards and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [10]. - **PX**: Due to good blending oil benefits and other factors, PXN continues to expand, which strongly supports PX. PX is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the risk of a sharp drop in crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2060 level [11][12]. - **Glass**: The profit of float glass enterprises is stable at a low level, production is expected to be stable, and inventory is higher than in previous years. The glass 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with pressure at the 1035 level [12]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase. The cost provides strong support. The PVC 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with pressure at the 4540 level [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Energy and Chemicals - **Oil**: As of November 21, the number of active drilling rigs in the US reached 419, the highest since October. The US has proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1]. - **PX**: This week's PX output was 74.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The domestic PX average weekly capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [11]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2053 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate is 88.75%, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - **Rubber**: As of November 23, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.60% [6]. - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic areas was 667,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,900 tons, an increase of 2.13% [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Fed officials' statements have increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut, boosting the bullish sentiment of silver [1]. - **Iron Ore**: From November 17 to 23, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 569,600 tons [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products this week was 121,407 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%. The weekly supply decreased by 1.33% to 196,910 tons [4]. - **Rebar**: On November 24, the domestic steel market prices mainly rose slightly. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3283 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - **Gold**: The US and Ukraine have completed a 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be determined [10]. - **PVC**: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4440 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 20 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [13]. - **Glass**: The average price of national float glass is 1094 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The float glass start - up rate is 74.86%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 percentage points [12]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of November 21, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [7]. - **Live Pigs**: On November 24, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from last Friday [9]. - **Eggs**: On November 24, the price of eggs was 7.35 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.2% from last Friday [9]. Bonds - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: On November 24, the winning bid rate of the 2025 central Treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit (the eleventh issue) was 1.73%, lower than the previous 1.76% [10].