Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.33% to 4643.60 [7][70] - Sub-sectors such as special steel, long products, and plate steel saw declines of 2.10%, 1.88%, and 3.84% respectively [8][71] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 48.1%, down by 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - The production of five major steel products totaled 720.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons week-on-week [14][66] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, down by 41.08 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 5.12% [20][82] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 3.5 million tons, down by 3.25 million tons week-on-week, a significant drop of 48.24% [20][83] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 940.4 million tons, an increase of 49.68 million tons week-on-week, up by 5.58% [25][88] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, an increase of 9.56 million tons week-on-week, up by 2.47% [25][88] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3414.2 yuan/ton, down by 13.31 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.39% [66][94] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6582.0 yuan/ton, down by 2.28 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.03% [66][94] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 27.45% [66][35] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 5.00% [66][35] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, down by 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 3.66% [67][50] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [67][50] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies showing upward elasticity in performance [69] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [69]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to catalyze the recovery of profit bottoms in the basic chemical and chemical products industry, with a positive outlook for 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The current round of capacity expansion in the basic chemical and chemical products industry is nearing its end, and "anti-involution" measures are anticipated to stimulate a recovery in industry profits [1] - The new materials sector is benefiting from rapid downstream demand growth, which is likely to initiate a new phase of high growth [1] - Traditional chemical leaders are demonstrating operational resilience and are enhancing their competitive capabilities by expanding into new materials and other fields, which may lead to improvements in both performance and valuation amid a recovering industry environment [1] Sub-industry Focus - Continuous catalysts such as "anti-involution" should be monitored in sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, including refining, polyester, dyes, organic silicon, pesticides, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [1] - The rapid development of downstream industries provides significant growth opportunities for companies in the new materials sector [1] ETF Information - The Cathay Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specific sub-sector index (000813) focused on the chemical industry, covering high-value-added products such as fine chemicals and new materials, and selects relevant listed companies to reflect the overall performance of this sub-sector [1]

进入2026年，A股市场正站在一个关键的转折点上。自2024年9月"924"行情以来，上证指数从约2700点 一路攀升至当前4100点附近。这并非一轮情绪驱动的短期行情，而是在政策持续发力、企业盈利预期改 善以及居民储蓄加速入市的多重支撑下,市场正从估值修复阶段迈向盈利驱动的新周期。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者张伟泽袁思杰香港报道 2026年A股市场将如何演绎？投资者应采取何种策略？近日，21世纪经济报道记者专访了摩根大通中国 内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝。 刘鸣镝表示，若反内卷取得实质性成效，2026年A股市场有望迎来一轮"慢牛"行情，投资者信心或将发 生根本性转变。其核心驱动力在于企业盈利能力的持续改善，而这将支持资产回报及估值的可持续性。 刘鸣镝以日本股市为例，指出日本东证指数（TOPIX）在过去十二年间上涨了约两倍， 但其每股营业 额以美元计价并未显著成长，关键在于企业净利润率从约3%上升到7%。她认为，中国企业正走在相似 的道路上，通过减少无效竞争、优化资本开支、稳定及提升股东回报，以逐步摆脱"增收不增利"的困 境。 在行业方面，刘鸣镝重点关注地产、材料与信息技术（IT）。她认为，若年内 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Strategy Weekly Report" dated February 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past two months, there has been a seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties. When non - ferrous metals undergo technical adjustments, anti - involution varieties rebound. After the profit - making effect of non - ferrous metals weakens, other theme markets need to absorb funds from non - ferrous and precious metals. Driven by national policies, low - valuation varieties may be a key focus after the Spring Festival. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition, and anti - involution is likely to be a theme in 2026 [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The commodity market in the past week was centered around the deep adjustment of non - ferrous and precious metals. In a bear market, negative factors are magnified, and positive factors are ignored. Near the Spring Festival, market volatility may decrease [4] - Gold and silver's recent sharp decline is more of a technical adjustment due to large previous gains and a large number of profit - taking positions [4] - The overall valuation of agricultural products, especially oilseeds and oils, is low. The price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. The demand on the feed side lacks strong support, and oils are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still poor, the worst is over, and the price downside is limited. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties. The downside of coal prices is also limited, and supply disturbances may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely. Low - valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non - ferrous sector, and attention should be paid to the progress of anti - involution policies [4] Market Data Tables - The report provides data on the price, inventory, valuation, position, position change, and annualized basis of various commodities, including black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural products [8][10][11] - It also shows the total amount and percentage of capital flow in different sectors such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed - breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] Market Data Charts - The report includes charts on the capital flow of black, olefin, polyester, other chemical, energy, oilseed and oil, non - ferrous, and agricultural products [12][14][16][20][22][27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic concept stocks in A-shares experienced a significant surge, driven by two main positive factors: Tesla's increased investment in photovoltaic manufacturing and positive signals in the industry fundamentals, leading to improved market confidence in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares photovoltaic concept stocks collectively surged, with nearly 30 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% by midday [1]. - The Space Photovoltaic Index rose over 6%, while other indices such as the BC Battery Index and Photovoltaic Glass Index increased by more than 5% [3]. Group 2: Positive Drivers - Tesla is reportedly evaluating multiple sites in the U.S. to expand its solar cell manufacturing capacity, aiming for an annual production capacity of 100 GW over the next three years [3][5]. - The Chinese photovoltaic equipment leaders are expected to meet Tesla and SpaceX's high standards, potentially capturing significant shares of their supply chains [5][8]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - Since 2026, leading manufacturers have repeatedly raised component prices, indicating a recovery in the photovoltaic industry after a prolonged downturn [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy and expectations of capacity clearance have enhanced market confidence regarding supply-demand improvements [6]. Group 4: Future Market Potential - The global demand for space photovoltaics is projected to reach 1 GW and a market space of over 80 billion yuan by 2030 under conservative scenarios, with optimistic scenarios suggesting demand could reach 70 GW and nearly 3 trillion yuan [8][9]. - The domestic photovoltaic industry is well-positioned to benefit from increased orders and profit growth as global demand for satellite launches and space photovoltaic technology expands [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday, lasting 9 days, is expected to significantly boost travel demand, leading to high market activity in the travel and tourism sector [4][43]. - The social service sector experienced a decline of 3.44% in the past two trading weeks, ranking 24th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [13][21]. - The travel market is anticipated to reach a historical peak with an estimated 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, driven by various factors including extended holiday periods and increased domestic travel [33][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social service sector's performance was below the market average, with a 3.44% decline compared to a 1.71% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][21]. - The hotel and catering sub-sector saw a slight increase of 0.64%, while other sub-sectors like education and professional services experienced declines of 6.26% and 5.25%, respectively [17][20]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares, among others [4][43]. - Hotel brands such as Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share [4][43]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is likely to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [4][43]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - Notable company announcements include China Travel Service forecasting a revenue of 11.339 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 13.88% year-on-year increase, while other companies like Zhongxin Tourism and Fengshang Culture are expecting significant declines in net profits [37][38]. - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan saw a 44.8% year-on-year increase in January 2026, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [30][31]. Travel Data Tracking - The domestic travel market shows positive trends, with a significant increase in hotel bookings and flight reservations during the Spring Festival period [30][31]. - The international flight volume has recovered to 85.59% of the 2019 levels, indicating a steady recovery in the travel sector [21][38].

2月9日，港股通红利ETF广发（520900）交投活跃，截止午盘涨0.56%，成交额7273.71万元。国泰海通 表示，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善，国内政策重心正转向内需主导。恐慌性抛售后，中国股市已至关键 位置，建议持股过节。新兴科技是主线，价值也会有春天。银河证券表示，"轻仓持股过节"是一种审慎 且符合历史规律的合理策略，既规避了节前市场缩量调整的波动风险，又保留了节后春季行情的参与机 会。供需格局改善与行业盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资产，配置逻辑 依然清晰。港股通红利ETF广发（520900）及其场外联接（022719/022720）为投资者提供了一键布局 港股红利资产的便捷入口，让稳健收益与长期价值兼得。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

| | | | | | | | | Hart Ave EN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/09 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | | 6000 | | | 400 | | | (元/吨) | | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with a focus on individual stock plays and structural rotations, suggesting that opportunities will arise from quick stock trading and sector rotations rather than a clear trend [1][13][14] - The market is expected to exhibit a "seek stability before the festival, rebound after" rhythm, with defensive sectors like consumption and dividend stocks likely to attract attention before the holiday, while post-holiday focus may shift to small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [1][13][14] Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rebounded to close in the green during the morning session, only to fall back in the afternoon, continuing the recent adjustment trend [4][5] - The chemical, battery, and mining sectors showed strength, while consumer and AI-related stocks experienced a collective pullback, indicating a structural rotation in the market [1][4][13] Sector Performance - The report highlights that cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals have been active, driven by ongoing domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving economic supply-demand dynamics [7][8] - The new energy sector, particularly battery and photovoltaic stocks, has shown resilience, supported by global trends towards carbon neutrality and domestic policy reforms aimed at reducing competition in these fields [8][9] - Consumer stocks have also been active, with government policies aimed at stimulating consumption creating structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors catering to demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to balance stability and flexibility in their strategies, focusing on consumption and dividend stocks before the festival while preparing for potential growth opportunities post-festival [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in the current volatile market, suggesting that investors should be ready to adapt to changing market rhythms [2][14]

从 内 地 政 策 实 践 展 望 2026 年 施 策 重 点 股 票 环球市场动态 周五 A 股震荡小幅下跌，化工股延 续强势；港股集体下跌，科技股继 续承压；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪 在消化宏观消息后有所回暖；美股 大幅反弹，道指首次突破 5 万点， 科技股获得大量逢低买盘。 外 汇 / 商 品 伊朗称核谈判是好开始，但市场忧 虑谈判未能降低冲突风险，周五油 价先跌后翻红。美元指数偏软，以 及市场对美伊会谈的忧虑，支持金 价回升。 固 定 收 益 上周五美股及贵金属市场回暖，美 债获利回吐。密歇根大学消费者信 心意外升至半年新高。高市早苗取 得历史性选举胜利，日本国债收益 率上涨。本周将有非农及 CPI数据， 和美债标售。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 2 月 9 日 恩智浦 (NXPI US; 224.32 美元; 目标价: 257 美元) 汽车市场缓慢复苏。公司 2025 年四季度当季汽车 市场营收以及毛利率略低于预期，引起市场对于复苏节奏的担忧。然而，公司指出过去 90 天积压订单、分销库存等 内部信号均 ...