【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 5 日 焦炭自身基本面矛盾不大，本周铁水产量有所增加，重要会议期间继续关注 钢厂检修力度。宏观层面今天政府工作报告再提"反内卷"，政策预期仍存。综 合来看，焦炭短期震荡偏强，低多思路对待，关注前低附近支撑和前高附近压力。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠通期货 沈桂伟 执业资格证书编号：F03099907/Z0020265 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 2 月 27 日全国 230 家独立焦企焦炭库存增加 7.54 万吨至 107.82 万吨，处于 8 个月高位，港口焦炭库存微降 2.16 万吨至 261.7 万吨，钢 厂焦炭库存下降 13.5 万吨至 675.11 万吨，综合库存走低 0.77%至 1044.63 万吨， 止步 9 连增。 利润方面，春节假期焦炭价格保持稳定，本周全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈 利持稳于-8 元/吨，且各地区吨焦盈利基本保持不变。 下游需求，春节假期结束，钢厂复工复产情况增加，供应有所回升。本周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率环比增加 0.09%至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to deepen the construction of a unified national market, focusing on regulatory reforms and measures to combat "involution" in competition, thereby fostering a healthier market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The government plans to establish a national unified market construction regulation, improve statistical, fiscal, and assessment systems, and standardize local government economic promotion behaviors [1]. - Measures will include a list of encouraged and prohibited items for local government investment attraction, as well as reforms in bidding and tendering mechanisms [1]. - The government emphasizes the need for stronger anti-monopoly and fair competition regulations to mitigate "involution" in competition [1]. Group 2: Addressing "Involution" - The focus on addressing "involution" indicates a recognition of the complexities involved, requiring a comprehensive approach to resolve underlying contradictions [2]. - Innovation is positioned as the counter to "involution," with a call for improved mechanisms for technological innovation and a shift towards high-quality development in manufacturing [2]. - The need for industry subsidies to be directed towards technological innovation rather than capacity expansion is highlighted, encouraging companies to enhance brand value and service experience [2]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of continuous technological investment to break free from homogeneous competition, advocating for the introduction of next-generation technologies and products [3]. - The strategy to escape low-level competition involves pushing for higher efficiency and innovation in products, which is seen as a viable path to overcoming market challenges [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [5] Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes stimulating domestic consumption and effective investment, which is expected to support demand for building materials in 2026 [2][3][7] - The report highlights the dual focus on consumption and investment as key drivers for the building materials sector, with significant opportunities arising from urban renewal and consumption upgrades [2][8] Summary by Sections Consumption-Driven Demand - The report anticipates that consumption demand for building materials will be driven by two main factors: revitalizing the existing housing market and consumption upgrades towards high-quality green materials [2] - Policies aimed at revitalizing existing housing stock and promoting urban renewal are expected to boost demand for renovation and refurbishment of building materials [2] Investment and Infrastructure - The government plans to allocate significant funds for infrastructure projects, which is expected to accelerate the demand for building materials as major projects commence [3] - The report notes that the "two重" projects will continue to support new construction demand in the building materials sector [3] Industry Transformation and Competition - The report discusses the ongoing transformation in the building materials industry towards a healthier competitive environment, driven by anti-competitive measures and green policies [4][8] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policies are expected to lead to a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the cement sector, which is projected to see a recovery in profitability [4][8] International Expansion and High-Performance Materials - The report highlights the potential for building materials companies to expand internationally, particularly in emerging markets, as domestic demand faces challenges [8] - There is a growing focus on high-performance materials, with companies investing in technology and innovation to meet the demands of new industries such as electronics and renewable energy [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments: cement (e.g., 华新水泥, 上峰水泥), fiberglass (e.g., 中国巨石, 中材科技), and consumer building materials (e.g., 东方雨虹, 北新建材) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of energy security, food security, carbon peak and neutrality, and the development of emerging industries and AI in the chemical sector [3][4] - It highlights the government's commitment to enhancing energy supply capabilities and achieving a comprehensive production capacity of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2026, up from 4.6 billion tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - The report discusses the ongoing geopolitical risks affecting energy security, particularly the high dependence on foreign oil and gas, and the role of major state-owned oil companies in ensuring energy supply [5] - It outlines the government's focus on food security, with a target of 1.4 trillion jin of grain production by 2026, which will drive demand for high-quality agricultural inputs [6][7] - The report indicates a shift towards carbon emission control, with a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 3.8% in 2026, marking a significant policy transition towards carbon management [8][9] - It addresses the need for anti-"involution" measures to improve market competition and prevent excessive capacity expansion in the chemical industry [10][11] - The report identifies emerging industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, and biomedicine as key growth areas, driven by advancements in technology and innovation [11][12] Summary by Sections Energy Security - The government aims to enhance energy supply capabilities, with a target of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal by 2026, reflecting a strong commitment to domestic energy security [4] - Major oil companies are expected to maintain high capital expenditures in exploration and development, benefiting related service companies [5] Food Security - The report emphasizes the importance of food production, with a target of 1.4 trillion jin of grain by 2026, which will increase demand for fertilizers and pesticides [6][7] - The agricultural sector is expected to shift towards higher quality inputs, benefiting companies with strong R&D capabilities [7] Carbon Peak and Neutrality - The report outlines a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 3.8% by 2026, indicating a stricter regulatory environment for high-emission industries [8][9] - The transition to a dual control system for carbon emissions will significantly impact the chemical industry, pushing for cleaner production methods [9] Anti-"Involution" - The government plans to implement measures to curb excessive competition and capacity expansion in the chemical sector, which will favor leading companies [10][11] Emerging Industries - The report highlights the growth potential in sectors like integrated circuits and biomedicine, driven by technological advancements and domestic demand [11][12] - The focus on AI integration in the chemical industry is expected to enhance operational efficiency and innovation [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major oil companies for energy security, leading agricultural input firms for food security, and top chemical companies for carbon management and anti-involution strategies [14][15]

Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, a decrease from the 5% target in 2025[3] - The weighted average GDP growth target for local governments in 2026 is approximately 5.10%, down from 5.37% in 2025[3] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate target for 2026 is around 5.5%[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is planned at around 4%, consistent with 2025, amounting to approximately 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from 2025[3] - General public budget expenditure is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, estimated at 25 basis points for reserve requirement ratio and 10 basis points for interest rates[5] - The issuance of new policy financial instruments is set at 800 billion yuan to stimulate investment[5] Consumption and Investment - A special fund of 1 trillion yuan will be established to promote domestic demand, alongside 2.5 trillion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement[6] - Central budget investment for 2026 is planned at 755 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan from 2025[6] Green Energy and Innovation - The report emphasizes the development of future industries such as future energy and brain-computer interfaces, with hydrogen production capacity expected to exceed 5 million tons per year by the end of 2024[7] - A national low-carbon transition fund will be established to support green transformation efforts[9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the economic growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5%, reflecting a pragmatic adjustment in response to market expectations, with nearly 60% of provinces lowering their GDP growth targets for 2026 [1][2] - Fiscal spending is maintained at a considerable scale, with a deficit target consistent with the previous year at around 4%, indicating a commitment to sustaining spending intensity while optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures [1][2] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on the reasonable recovery of prices, suggesting that the CPI target of 2% is not only a guide but also achievable, which will support nominal GDP growth [2][3] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand remains a primary task, with adjustments in policy measures, including a reduction in the "old-for-new" consumption support from 300 billion to 250 billion, and a shift towards promoting service consumption as a new growth point [3][4] - The establishment of a 100 billion fiscal-financial collaborative fund aims to lower credit costs and risks, facilitating the release of domestic demand, although the overall support for domestic demand policies does not show significant expansion [4] - The urgency to cultivate new growth drivers is highlighted, with significant upgrades in traditional industries and new support for emerging sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, indicating a focus on high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The report indicates a deepening of "anti-involution" governance, emphasizing measures against monopolistic and unfair competition, which will likely constrain price increases lacking supply-demand support [5] - In the capital market, there is a clear policy direction towards deepening comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, focusing on enhancing the mechanisms for long-term capital entry and improving investor protection [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the building materials industry [5] Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes stimulating domestic consumption and effective investment, which is expected to support demand for building materials in 2026 [7] - The report highlights the dual drivers of demand: revitalizing the existing housing market and promoting consumption upgrades towards high-quality green building materials [2][8] - The "anti-involution" policies and green carbon reduction initiatives are expected to improve the competitive landscape and supply-demand dynamics within the building materials sector [4][8] Summary by Sections Consumption and Demand Drivers - The government plans to implement policies to stimulate consumer spending, including a special bond of 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of old consumer goods, which is likely to boost the home decoration market and retail demand for building materials [2] - Demand for building materials in 2026 is anticipated to come from two main sources: revitalizing the existing housing stock and consumption upgrades towards high-quality green materials [2] Investment and Infrastructure - The government intends to allocate 755 billion yuan for central budget investments and 800 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for infrastructure projects, which will likely accelerate the construction of major projects and increase demand for building materials [3] Industry Transformation and Competition - The report discusses the ongoing transformation in the building materials industry driven by "anti-involution" policies, which aim to eliminate excessive competition and improve profitability [4] - The focus on green carbon reduction is expected to support the industry's transition towards more efficient production and the elimination of outdated capacities [4][8] International Expansion and Innovation - The report notes that Chinese building material companies are increasingly exploring overseas markets, particularly in emerging economies, to create new growth opportunities amid domestic demand pressures [8] - There is a growing emphasis on high-performance new materials, with companies accelerating R&D efforts to meet the demands of high-tech industries [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the cement, fiberglass, and consumer building materials sectors, highlighting their potential for growth and profitability in the coming years [8]

Economic Goals - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5%-5.0%, down from approximately 5% in 2025, reflecting a focus on quality over quantity in economic development[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to rise to 5.04% by 2026, exceeding the actual GDP growth target range for the first time, indicating a shift towards addressing low inflation and promoting price recovery[7] Fiscal Policy - The total scale of the broad deficit for 2026 is 11.89 trillion yuan, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 8.1%, slightly down from 8.4% in the previous year[11] - The fiscal deficit rate remains at 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year[11] - Special government bonds are set at 1.6 trillion yuan, with 800 billion yuan allocated for "two重" construction and 2.5 trillion yuan for consumer goods replacement programs[12] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "moderately loose," with expectations for one reserve requirement ratio cut (50 basis points) and one interest rate cut (10-15 basis points) throughout the year[20] - The focus will be on maintaining ample liquidity to support fiscal efforts, with potential adjustments based on economic conditions[19] Domestic Demand Expansion - The government emphasizes building a strong domestic market, with 2.5 trillion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement and the introduction of a 1 trillion yuan fiscal-financial collaborative fund to stimulate consumption[26] - Central budget investment is planned at 755 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing effective investment growth and guiding private capital towards high-tech and modern service sectors[26] Real Estate Policy - The focus for 2026 is on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[37] - The market is expected to continue facing downward pressure, with a projected decline in sales area but at a reduced rate compared to previous years[37]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][66] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent adjustments in real estate policies in Shanghai, including the shortening of the social security or individual income tax payment period for non-local residents to purchase housing, and the increase in the maximum loan amount for housing provident funds [3][12] - It is anticipated that the easing of monetary and fiscal policies in China will further support the real estate market, with expectations of policy measures to stabilize housing transactions and prices [3][12] - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in demand as housing market conditions stabilize [5][12] Summary by Sections Recent Policy Changes - Shanghai's "Seven Measures" optimize real estate policies, allowing eligible non-local residents to purchase additional housing and increasing the maximum loan limits for housing provident funds [3][12] - Other cities like Guangzhou and Changchun are also implementing supportive measures for real estate and housing financing [3][12] Market Trends - The report notes that the sales area of commercial housing has been declining since its peak in 2021, indicating that the market is entering a bottoming phase [3][12] - The construction materials sector is expected to see a turning point in the capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and improved purchasing intentions driven by lower interest rates [5][12] High-Frequency Data - As of February 27, 2026, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 326.4 CNY/ton, showing a 0.1% decrease from the previous week and a 15.7% decrease year-on-year [4][13] - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1134.3 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.5% increase from the previous week but a 14.2% decrease year-on-year [4][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical construction material companies showing signs of bottoming [5][12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the transformation of the bond market research framework in response to the changing narrative era, highlighting the need to adapt to new market dynamics and strategies [3][4] - It identifies that the bond market's sensitivity to economic data has weakened, with the focus shifting from economic indicators to narrative logic, driven by factors such as weak credit demand and a downturn in the real estate sector [3][9] - The report defines "narrative" as a concrete expression and dissemination of the main contradictions in the market at specific stages, indicating that when economic data loses its guiding power, events and policy debates become the primary narrative drivers [3][40] Group 2 - The current market narrative landscape shows a clear consensus on long-term strategies, while short-term narratives are mixed, indicating a transition phase where old narratives are losing impact and new ones are yet to emerge [3][53] - Key narratives identified include macro-strategic narratives focused on financial stability, trade and tariff narratives evolving from immediate impacts to long-term backgrounds, and monetary policy narratives emphasizing precise price control and interest rate management [3][57][61][62] - The report suggests that the bond market's research framework should shift from being an "economic forecaster" to a "market decoder," focusing on policy research, technical analysis, and institutional behavior analysis to navigate the complexities of the narrative-driven market [3][39][64]