棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13670 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19705 | -5 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -25219 | 2288 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 74 | 52 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 272133 | -9339 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 15633 | 2151 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 8329 | -135 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 88 | 0 | | | | 15191 | 13 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20620 | -20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) 59 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red Dates: Neutral Bullish [9] Core Views - Apple: The market trading atmosphere is general, the inventory removal speed is slow, the price is gradually polarized, and the new - season fruit bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season. The follow - up needs to focus on various factors such as the price trend of early - maturing fruits and the sales of competing fruits [2][3] - Red Dates: The second and third batches of flowers in the main production areas have good fruit setting, and the reduction in production is less than expected. The market has different views on the new - season output, and attention should be paid to weather changes and market inventory [7][8] Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract was 7,915 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 10,980 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Market Analysis Apple - The futures price rose. The new - season fruit bagging was completed, and the bagging quantity was slightly lower than the previous season, which may support the opening price of late - maturing Fuji. The inventory removal of Fuji in production and sales areas was slow, the price was polarized, and the overall price decreased. The inventory was at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Competing fruits had a strong substitution effect, and the price of early - maturing fruits was weak [3] Red Dates - The futures price rose. The second and third batches of flowers in the production areas had good fruit setting, and the reduction in production was less than expected. The market had different views on the new - season output. The total inventory in the sales areas was at a high level in recent years, and the price of high - quality goods rose [8] Strategies Apple - Maintain a neutral attitude. If terminal consumption remains weak, it is more likely that the spot price will remain stable and weak [4] Red Dates - Be neutral and bullish. The news from the production areas has a greater impact on the futures market. The market may run strongly in the future, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 4 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 1万吨 | 环比有所增加3 | 85% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为7万吨 | 环比减少1 | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 | 40% | ， | ， | . | . | . | | | | | | 硅库存为22 | 9万吨 | 处于高位 | 硅片亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to increase. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 48885 - 51775 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease from the previous week, and the demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, also at a high level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 46,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The sample oxygen - permeable 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 610 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease from the previous week; the main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the battery cell output was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 3.86GW, a 27.57% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 59.15GW, a 3.30% increase from the previous month. In July, the component output was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the component output in August will be 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month. The European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [12]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data The report provides a large amount of data on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, including production, inventory, cost, and price trends over different time periods, as well as the supply and demand balance sheets of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon [18][20][41][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol is becoming more polarized, and it is expected that the regional characteristics of its price trends will become more prominent. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week, with weakening demand, leading to a predicted weak adjustment. The inland market has healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but is affected by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 running between 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol 2509 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2509 ranging from 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; some CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some regions such as Jiangsu and Fujian have decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has changed, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 650,300 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 40,500 tons to 366,300 tons [5]. - **Production profit data**: The profits of coal - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production have changed, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remains unchanged [19]. - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remain unchanged. The production profits and loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO devices have all changed [28][32][35][39][44]. - **Warehouse receipt and forecast data**: The number of methanol warehouse receipts has decreased by 13.10%, and the number of effective forecasts has increased to 202 [51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, and some devices are in the process of restarting [54]. - **Foreign device operation**: Some methanol production devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operation statuses. Devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are generally operating normally, while some devices in the United States and New Zealand have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin device operation**: Olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2509 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention on the support around 7,200 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing as previously shut - down plants restarted, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the medium - to - long term. Demand is weak, with the peak season for shed films postponed and limited support from packaging film orders. International oil prices are expected to be strong this week, but cost support is not enough to reverse the short - term weak trend of polyethylene futures [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,279 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. The trading volume was 264,758 lots, up 44,222 lots, and the open interest was 300,262 lots, down 12,855 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 22,004 lots, up 316 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,284.35 yuan/ton, down 32.61 yuan, and in East China was 7,367.62 yuan/ton, down 17.86 yuan. The basis was 5.35 yuan, up 5.39 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.88 US dollars per barrel, down 0.66 US dollars, and the CFR mid - price in Japan was 603.88 US dollars per ton, down 7.12 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars per ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia was 821 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.09%, up 2.12 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 48.7%, up 0.63 percentage points, that of pipes was 28.67%, down 0.16 percentage points, and that of agricultural film was 12.63%, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 12.42%, up 0.15 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 13.36%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 7.28%, down 0.91 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 635,500 tons, up 3.31% from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3%. As of July 30th, the inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 432,800 tons, down 13.94%, and as of August 2nd, the social inventory was 575,700 tons, up 2.49% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash and glass futures are both in an oscillating phase. For soda ash, although there was policy support last week, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. For glass, the price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support [6][30]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Soda ash futures are in an oscillating phase. The short - term may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation, start - up adjustment, and inventory changes [6]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic soda ash market first rose and then declined. Policy and device maintenance supported the price increase at the beginning of the week, but weak downstream demand and increased supply later led to a weakening of the futures [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a slight upward trend last week. The futures were in high - level oscillation, affected by the contradiction between policy expectations and fundamentals. The expected operating range of SA2509 was 1250 - 1450, and it was advisable to wait and see [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic soda ash market was still stable with a slight upward trend. The expected operating range of SA2509 is 1200 - 1350, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly), etc. The multi - empty flow is - 39.7, indicating the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 7.2 + 2, remaining basically stable; the multi - empty divergence is 90.6, with a high risk of market reversal [11][15][22]. Glass Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Glass is in an oscillating trend. The short - term may have narrow - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy trends [30]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend. The price increase was mainly driven by policy sentiment, with insufficient supply - demand support and low downstream acceptance of high prices [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was stable with an upward trend last week. The futures first fell and then rose, with a risk of adjustment at the weekend. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 1200 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was oscillating with a slight upward trend, but the upward momentum weakened. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [34]. 3.3. Relevant Data - The data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存. The multi - empty flow is - 53.5, indicating the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is 68.7 * + +, with a large inflow of funds; the multi - empty divergence is 96.4, with a high risk of market reversal [36][42][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of EG followed the decline of coking coal, with the closing price of the EG main contract at 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market at 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China continued to decline. According to CCF, it was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period) [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a weakening pressure on the fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The trading strategy is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side due to the weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal, and wait for coking coal to digest the over - increase of last week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 68 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO - EG co - production plants have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high [2]. International Price Difference No information provided. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal carried out centralized replenishment, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period). Affected by the typhoon, the arrival of ships was postponed, and the inventory continued to decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience a weakening oscillatory trend as market sentiment cools [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are subject to weakening oscillatory trends due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations as market sentiment is realized [2][17][18]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][26]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2509 futures contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton (-1.27%). The open - position decreased by 32,551 lots. Spot prices of various iron ores remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed some changes, with the basis of I2509 against Super Special increasing by 10.0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2510 rebar futures contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (-4.19%), and the HC2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (-3.56%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the weekly data on July 31 [9][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 31, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. The Politburo meeting proposed to manage enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity governance in key industries [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [9][11]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Various price spreads showed different changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price and production data for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions in July. The production and transportation data of manganese ore from Comilog in the second quarter of 2025 were released [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed. There were also changes in basis and spreads. The open - position of some contracts decreased [18]. - **Price and Open - Position Situation**: There were coking coal quotes at northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 31. The open - position changes of some contracts among the top 20 members of the DCE were provided [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. 3.5 Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2508 steam coal contract had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. The open - position of the ZC2508 contract among the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change on July 31 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.6 Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Politburo decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week; maintenance is expected to decrease next week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7][9] - Current demand may remain sluggish; overall inventory is at a high level [8][9] - PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5140 - 5244 [9] - The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened [9] - The profit of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is still in a loss state, but the loss has decreased; the double - ton spread profit has decreased, but it is higher than the historical average, and production scheduling may increase [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 338,340 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58%, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 113,190 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32%. Maintenance is expected to decrease next week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [7] - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 41.88%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream profiles was 38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream pipes was 32.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream films was 77%, a month - on - month increase of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The start - up rate of downstream paste resin was 76.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are bearish, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand may remain sluggish [8] - **Cost**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 133.62 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 57.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 505.79 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 14.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,883.45 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Production scheduling may increase [8] - **Inventory**: On July 29, the factory inventory was 357,065 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 277,865 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 79,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%. The social inventory was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.89%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% [10] - **Base Spread**: On July 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5,240 yuan/ton, and the base spread of the 09 contract was 48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10] - **Market Outlook**: PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5140 - 5244 [9] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, and profits of different types of PVC [16] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base Spread Trend**: Displays the historical trend chart of PVC base spread [18] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Displays the price, trading volume, and open interest trends of PVC futures in June - July 2025 [22] - **Spread Analysis**: Displays the historical trend chart of the spread of PVC futures main contracts [24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Displays the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: Includes the trading volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rate, and related data of the real estate and infrastructure markets [44][46][53][56] - **Inventory**: Displays the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - **Ethylene Method**: Includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads [60] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly supply - demand data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]