Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market is influenced by multiple core variables including Federal Reserve policy expectations, Trump's trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics [2] - The US dollar index experienced a rebound, closing at 97.83, marking a 0.9% increase, the first weekly gain in three weeks [3] - Gold and silver prices continued to rise, with gold closing at $3,355.12 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar strengthened due to the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to maintain interest rates, while the British pound faced pressure, recording six consecutive declines [5] - The euro was under pressure following dovish comments from European Central Bank officials, while the US dollar against the Japanese yen saw fluctuations, ultimately rising nearly 2% for the week [5] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose over 2% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and expectations that OPEC+ may pause production increases in October [6] - Despite an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, the overall market sentiment remained bullish due to external factors [6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced high volatility, with technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new highs [7] - However, all three major indices closed lower for the week, reflecting a rebalancing pressure due to high valuations [7] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw significant activity, with Bitcoin reaching $117,789 per coin, driven by institutional interest [8] - However, the influx of leveraged funds raised concerns about market volatility, with $541 million in liquidations reported in the past 24 hours [8] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on Federal Reserve officials' speeches, key economic data releases, and potential adjustments in Trump's policies in the coming week [9] - The US dollar's performance is likely to continue influencing non-US asset prices, with gold and silver expected to maintain strength, while oil price volatility may increase [9]

Group 1 - The recent U.S. economic data indicates that tariff policies are beginning to show signs of inflation in prices, marking the first time such signals have been captured in official data [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed an annual increase from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June, leading to a brief sell-off in the bond market [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June reported zero growth, stabilizing the market after the CPI report [1][2] Group 2 - Core consumer prices, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June, the largest monthly increase since 2022, with notable increases in home goods and appliances [2] - PIMCO suggests that the CPI data may support the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, indicating room for potential rate cuts in September and beyond [2] - The PCE price index is expected to reach 2.8% in June and potentially 3% in July, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] Group 3 - Current bond market sentiment views the inflation caused by tariffs as a "temporary adjustment" that will be absorbed in a few months, with prices expected to stabilize near the Fed's target [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 4.45%, which is considered attractive for investors [3][4] - Despite recent tariff-related news, the U.S. Treasury market has remained stable, with the 10-year yield fluctuating within a narrow range of 15 basis points [3]

美联储前理事沃什：我们最不需要的就是美联储的一切照旧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

北京时间16日晚11点左右，主流美媒开始报道有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的消息。 16日晚12点左右，特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔和解雇信的存在，并称他在此事上比共和党人更保守。特 朗普表示，大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，除非证明其在大楼翻新事件中存在欺诈行为。 评论称，美国6月生产者价格指数持平，缓解了昨日消费者价格指数报告给美联储带来的部分鹰派压 力，美元因此走势震荡。预测人士会结合这两项通胀指标，来估算美联储青睐的个人消费支出物价指数 ——该数据将于本月晚些时候公布。目前只有少量初步迹象显示关税正对部分商品价格构成压力，而上 述数据则暗示PCE可能走软。不确定性或许会让美联储维持当前政策的时间更长，这有可能对美元形成 支撑。 美联储威廉慕斯表示，今年美国经济预计将增长约1%，失业率预计到年底升至4.5%。6月份整体通胀率 可能为2.5%，核心通胀率可能为2.75%。经济面临更多不确定性。关税可能会推动进一步的通胀。目前 经济状况良好，劳动力市场稳健。关税对经济影响尚处"初期阶段"，关税措施应在2025年剩余时间及 2026年期间推动通胀率上升一个百分点。今年通胀率将维持在3%至3.5%之间。就业增长和劳动力供应 都在放缓 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：需看到更多数据，才能决定政策下一步。 ...

近期波动原因 来源：赛博AI实验室 截至2025年7月16日，金价呈现震荡下行趋势，市场多空因素交织。以下是综合分析及关键要点： 一、当前金价动态 国际与国内价格 国际金价：现货黄金报3325.56美元/盎司（同比下跌0.54%），纽约期金收于3336.7美元/盎司，周内跌 幅扩大至0.67%。 国内金价：上海黄金T+D报772.27元/克，深圳水贝批发价约756元/克，品牌金店（如周大福、六福）足 金首饰价仍处高位（1007-1008元/克）。 利空因素： 美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，强化美联储推迟降息预期，美元走强压制金价。 地缘风险短期缓和（中东停火、欧盟推迟对美关税报复），削弱避险需求。 技术性抛压加剧，3340美元关键支撑位失守后触发连锁抛售。 支撑因素： 央行购金潮延续（中国连续8个月增持，全球央行Q1购金量同比增34%）。 黄金科技需求增长（脑机接口、纳米芯片导线应用）。 二、市场行为与消费心理 "买涨不买跌"现象凸显 深圳水贝商家反馈：金价下跌后销售额反比上涨时减少30%-40%，消费者观望情绪浓厚，期待"抄底 价"（如600元/克）。促销措施（如降工费3-5元/克）效果有限。 婚庆刚需群 ...

Group 1 - The gold market continued its weak trend, with spot gold falling to around $3327 per ounce, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, and futures gold recording a 0.7% decline [1] - The June CPI data in the U.S. met market expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year level of 2.7%, indicating that inflation is not "out of control" [3] - Concerns about rising inflation are growing, as the June CPI represents the strongest monthly growth in the past six months, despite not deviating from market expectations [3] Group 2 - President Trump emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that consumer prices are low and should warrant a rate cut, which creates a policy expectation in the market [3] - The market is increasingly anticipating potential new tariffs from Trump, with proposed tariffs of up to 30% on goods from the EU and Mexico, which could lead to input inflation and increased price pressure [3] - The upcoming PPI data is crucial, as a strong rebound could influence whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, potentially putting further pressure on gold prices [3][4] Group 3 - With U.S. Treasury yields stabilizing and some safe-haven funds returning to fixed-income assets, along with a strong dollar index, gold is facing additional headwinds [4] - Silver, platinum, and palladium also reflect a market waiting for clearer macro signals, with silver down 0.9% and platinum and palladium showing slight increases, indicating short-term technical corrections rather than a trend reversal [4] - Gold is currently in a delicate phase of mixed factors and increasing expectation divergence, lacking strong support from inflation protection buying and not being favored due to heightened risk aversion [4]

Market Overview - Bitcoin reached a high of $119,940 and a low of $115,736, with a volatility of 4,204 points, while Ethereum peaked at $3,144 and dipped to $2,932, showing a volatility of 212 points [1] - A total of 106,261 individuals were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $353 million [1] Liquidation Data - 1-hour liquidation amounted to $3.77 million, while 4-hour liquidation was $21.02 million [2] - 12-hour liquidation reached $128 million, and 24-hour liquidation totaled $353 million [2] Market Sentiment and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's policy remains unaffected by the CPI report, with expectations for a 100% rate cut in September [2] - The selection process for the successor to Fed Chair Powell has begun, with market observers watching the influence of the "shadow Fed" [2] - Ethereum's ecosystem is gaining attention, with strong interest in tokens like ENA, AAVE, UNI, EIGEN, ETHFI, and ARB [2] Price Movements and Predictions - Bitcoin's recent price movements indicate a potential upward trend, with a key support level at $114,000 [5] - Ethereum has reached a new high of $3,152, marking a significant milestone, with expectations for further upward movement if Bitcoin stabilizes [7][10] Trading Strategies - The current market dynamics suggest that holding onto cryptocurrencies is preferable, as the recent pullbacks are viewed as temporary [7] - Short-term trading strategies include monitoring key support levels and potential entry points for Bitcoin around $114,000 [5] Altcoin Performance - The BSC ecosystem is performing strongly, while other assets are showing lackluster performance [3] - Recent altcoin movements indicate a potential "alt season," with significant gains observed in various tokens [12]