Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility and uncertainty, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and economic factors [1][2]. Price Trends - On June 2, international gold prices surged past the key resistance level of $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,406 per ounce, marking a nearly 3% increase and the largest single-day gain in three weeks [1]. - Earlier in April, gold prices reached a historical high of $3,509 per ounce before dropping to $3,245 due to easing geopolitical tensions, followed by a recovery supported by central bank gold purchases and rising inflation expectations in the U.S. [1]. Market Influences - The sensitivity of gold prices is attributed to its status as a recognized safe-haven asset, closely linked to global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and global inflation trends [2]. - Major Wall Street firms have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, and JPMorgan predicting that gold could reach $4,000 sooner than expected [2]. Investment Trends - There is a growing trend of retail investors participating in gold investments, driven by social media discussions and investment analysis videos, leading to a surge in interest [3]. - Some investors are resorting to high-risk financing methods, such as consumer loans and credit cards, to invest in gold, which poses significant financial risks if prices decline [3]. Investment Strategies - Various investment methods for gold include physical gold (bars, coins) and gold ETFs, with the latter offering lower costs and higher liquidity [3]. - The 华夏 Gold ETF (518850) has gained attention for its strong performance, and investors can also consider ETF-linked funds for similar investment benefits [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent calls from multiple Federal Reserve officials for cautious interest rate cuts due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policies may lead to long-term inflation, particularly affecting public inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Some economists and Fed officials believe that Trump's tariff policies will lead to rising inflation and unemployment, as well as slower economic growth [1] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed that the inflation caused by tariffs might be a one-time shock, suggesting potential rate cuts by the end of the year [1][3] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that it is too early to determine if the inflation impact from tariffs is temporary, complicating the Fed's assessment of future inflation trends [1][3] Group 2: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% in April, a slowdown from 0.7% in March [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [3] - Some analysts believe that the better-than-expected inflation data may be interpreted by the Fed as a calm before a storm, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 3: Tariff Policy Implications - Trump's tariff policies have seen significant increases, with an average tariff rate on China reaching as high as 165% before being reduced to around 50% following a phase trade agreement [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff implementation has raised concerns about its long-term impact on inflation, as gradual policy changes may affect consumer and business behavior [4][5] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized the need for potential interest rate hikes to prevent rising inflation expectations, noting that trade policies are beginning to impact the economy [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The sustainability of tariff-induced inflation is contingent on the evolution of trade policies and their economic impact, with short-term effects already visible [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's policy adjustments will be cautious, closely monitoring economic data and the effects of tariff policies [7] - In the long run, as the economic impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced, the necessity for Fed rate cuts may increase, leading to a more dovish policy stance [7]

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with rising tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly, leading to a "slightly pessimistic and uncertain" outlook [1][2] - The ISM Services PMI for May unexpectedly fell to 49.9, below the expected 52, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since July 2023 [4][5] Employment and Labor Market - Employment conditions remain stagnant across most Federal Reserve districts, with many reporting unchanged job markets and some industries planning layoffs [2][5] - The upcoming employment report is critical, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 3.9% [7] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The Beige Book notes that prices are rising at a moderate pace, but businesses expect faster increases in costs and prices in the future, with some planning to pass tariff-related costs onto consumers [2][3] - The ISM Services PMI report highlights a sharp decline in new orders and a significant rise in the prices paid index, indicating dual pressures from tariffs on demand and inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are hedging against a volatile interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with expectations ranging from no rate cuts to aggressive cuts by 2025 [6][9] - The divergence in predictions from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reflects the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and potential Fed actions [6][9] Regulatory Changes - The Senate confirmed Michelle Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which may introduce new dynamics in financial regulation amidst rising economic uncertainty [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to experience minimal volatility following the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, reflecting improved investor sentiment due to recent positive economic data [1] - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 index is projected at ±0.9%, the lowest since February, and significantly below the average actual volatility of 1.3% over the past year [1] - Following initial fears regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy, the market has rebounded as the Trump administration has eased some tariff measures, leading to a 2.8% decline from the index's all-time high earlier this year [1] Group 2 - Economists surveyed predict that the U.S. will add approximately 130,000 jobs in May, a decrease from 177,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% [3] - Trader positions reflect optimism regarding the non-farm data, with hedge funds turning net short on CBOE volatility index futures after the S&P 500's best monthly performance since 1990 [4] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has turned positive for the first time since the S&P 500's record high in February, indicating stronger economic data [4] Group 3 - A report from JPMorgan suggests that if May's job additions fall below 100,000, the S&P 500 could face a 3% decline, although this scenario has a low probability of about 5% [5] - The baseline scenario estimates job additions between 115,000 and 135,000, which could lead to a 0.25% to 1% increase in the index [5] - The upcoming employment data will provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction amid challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential inflation [7] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is attempting to balance policy rate adjustments in light of trade war uncertainties and economic slowdown, with the FOMC entering a quiet period ahead of the June 18 rate decision [7] - Market sentiment may remain tolerant even if job growth slows, as employment data is considered lagging and the real impact of tariff policies on the job market may take months to manifest [7]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with spot gold prices around $3355 per ounce, indicating underlying tensions despite a seemingly calm surface [1] - Strong performance in the U.S. job market is counterbalancing global trade tensions, while the OECD's latest warnings introduce new variables into the market [1] - Upcoming key data releases, particularly the ADP employment data and the non-farm payroll report, are expected to provide insights into Federal Reserve policy direction, which will influence gold market investment logic [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is anticipated to enter a period of volatility, with short-term resistance at $3380 and support at $3345, indicating a potential range-bound trading environment [3] - The 30-minute moving average is showing signs of a downward trend, suggesting a possible adjustment if a bearish crossover occurs [3] - The trading strategy recommends focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key levels to watch being $3380-$3390 for resistance and $3345-$3335 for support [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have slightly declined due to a more balanced supply-demand scenario and concerns over the global economic outlook, with Brent crude at $65.58 per barrel and WTI at $63.32 per barrel [4] - Recent price drops follow a two-week high, influenced by factors such as wildfires in Canada disrupting oil production and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [4] - The oil market is currently influenced by competing forces, including geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a potential high-level consolidation until clearer policy directions emerge [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential test of the $50 mark after forming a bearish flag pattern [5] - Short-term movements are characterized by fluctuations around the moving average system, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [5] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $64.5-$65.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.5 [5]

Group 1: Gold (XAU/USD) - The overall trend for gold showed a rise followed by a pullback, with a daily range of approximately 591 points and a closing bearish candle with upper and lower shadows [1] - Federal Reserve officials emphasized a cautious policy stance, coupled with uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies, leading to increased volatility in gold prices [1] - The current strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips, with a bullish outlook continuing as the price broke through the consolidation range [1] Group 2: Euro/USD (EUR/USD) - The euro was impacted by lower-than-expected CPI in the Eurozone and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, resulting in a daily range of about 90 points and a bearish closing [7] - The European Central Bank's rate cut expectations have increased, while strong U.S. job vacancy data has put pressure on the euro [7] - The current price is consolidating around 1.1364, with future movements dependent on policy developments [7] Group 3: GBP/USD - The British pound experienced fluctuations influenced by the Bank of England Governor's remarks and U.S. data, with a daily range of approximately 110 points and a bullish closing [12] - The current price is around 1.356, and attention is required on UK government policies and Federal Reserve officials' statements [12] - The strategy suggests holding long positions around 1.350, with a target profit of 30-50 points [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY - The GBP/JPY pair saw a decline during the Asian session followed by a rebound in the U.S. session, with a daily range of about 206 points and a strong bullish closing [17] - The strategy focuses on buying on dips, particularly near Fibonacci support levels [17] - The current recommendation is to buy in batches at 194.1 and 193.8, with a total profit target of 40-60 points [19]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-04 股指低开高走，金融板块表现强势 市场分析 特朗普提高关税。国内方面，美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，对此，外交部发言人林剑表示，商务部发言人此 前已就此阐明中方严正立场。日内瓦共识是中美双方在相互尊重、平等协商的原则下达成的。美方在毫无事实根 据的情况下，对中方抹黑指责，出台对华芯片出口管制、暂停对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证 等极端打压措施，严重破坏日内瓦共识，也损害了中方正当权益。中方对此坚决反对，已提出严正交涉。林剑强 调，施压和胁迫不是同中方打交道的正确方式。我们督促美方尊重事实，停止散布虚假信息，纠正有关错误做法， 以实际行动维护双方达成的共识。海外方面，特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%， 该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在25%。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.43%收于33631.98点，创业板指涨0.48%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，美容护理、纺织服饰、银行行业领涨，家用电器、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交 ...

【隔夜有色金属期货价格走势分化，各品种受库存、需求、政策等因素影响】隔夜LME铜先抑后扬， 涨0.24%至9638.5美元/吨；SHFE铜主力涨0.5%至78180元/吨，国内现货进口窗口关闭。美国4月JOLTS 职位空缺人数增加，减缓市场对就业担忧，5月非农数据待公布。美联储面对通胀不确定或偏鹰，6月降 息概率小。LME库存降4600吨至143850吨，国内主流地区铜库存环比节前增1.43万吨。需求淡季，下游 采购谨慎。美关税反复及232调查或支撑铜价，当前铜价面临方向选择，关注78000 - 80000元/吨阻力区 间。 隔夜LME镍跌0.23%报15475美元/吨，沪镍涨0.25%报121860元/吨。LME库存增1152吨至201462 吨，国内SHFE仓单减19吨至22038吨。镍矿价格平稳，不锈钢产业链原料成交冷清，成本有支撑，库存 下降但需求疲软，镍价短期或修复，偏震荡运行。 节后首日氧化铝震荡偏强，AO2509收3036元/吨，涨 幅1.27%；沪铝震荡偏强，AL2507收19990元/吨，涨幅0.25%。现货氧化铝价格回落，铝锭升水扩大。 氧化铝供需双增，矿端有支撑，电解铝需求淡旺季压力与韧 ...

黄金周二（6月3日）早盘小幅上涨3392附近后开始震荡下跌，欧盘以及美盘初延续下跌，最低跌至3333附近，尾盘震荡反弹，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、美元走强：美元周二上涨0.6%，从逾一个月低点回升，以美元计价的黄金对外国买家成本上升，抑制需求。不过，美元短期回升未改变整体承压趋势， 黄金作为避险资产吸引力仍在，但短期上行空间受美元强势限制。 2、贸易战与关税政策：特朗普提议将进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，引发市场关注。欧盟表示将推动美国降税，但美国要求贸易伙伴短时间内提交修订提 议，谈判紧迫性使市场情绪谨慎。贸易战可能致全球经济增长放缓，推高避险需求利好黄金，同时美元阶段性走强和市场对美联储政策观望又限制黄金上 涨。此外，美国参议院审议的减税和支出法案预计未来十年为联邦政府增加3.8万亿美元债务，可能削弱美元长期吸引力，间接支撑金价，而短期内外汇期 权市场交易员普遍预期美元进一步走软，或为黄金提供反弹机会。 3、美国劳动力市场疲软：美国4月职位空缺增加19.1万至739.1万，但裁员人数创九个月最大增幅达178.6万，裁员主要集中在中小企业的专业和商业服务、 医疗保健及餐饮行业。4月辞职人数减少15 ...

美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示，尽管美国经济不确定性加剧，4月JOLTS职位空缺意外上升，好于预期和前值，并且招聘活动有所回升，显示劳动力需 求依然健康。 美国4月JOLTS职位空缺739.1万人，预期710万人，前值从719.2万人小幅上修至720万人。回顾上个月数据，当时JOLTS职位空缺创半年新低，大幅不及预 期。 自2022年3月创下1218万人的纪录以来，由于美联储大幅加息导致需求放缓，JOLTS职位空缺在大部分时间里大体呈现下降的态势。此前几个月伴随着美联 储降息，JOLTS数据一度出现反弹。4月的JOLTS再次反弹。总的来说，JOLTS职位空缺数据波动较大，每月可能会出现高达50万个的变动。 经济学家更倾向于从整体趋势看待JOLTS报告，过去一年职位空缺大致稳定在700万至800万之间。 美联储官员们密切关注的职位空缺与失业人数之比保持在1.0，与疫情前的水平一致。而在2022年，该比例一度达到2.0。这是衡量劳动力供需平衡的一个关 键指标。 分行业来看，4月职位空缺的增长主要由私营行业推动，包括专业和商业服务、医疗保健和社会援助。虽然州和地方教育部门的职位空缺减少拖累了整体政 府岗位，但联邦政 ...