在美国政府停摆超过一个月，两份非农就业报告连续缺席之后，终于市场在今晚将等到美国9月非农就业报告的公布，意味着美国数据公布开始趋向正常化 的开端。市场预期非农就业人数将增长5万（前值2.2万），失业率维持在4.3%，平均每小时工资月率维持在0.3%的温和增速。 今年大部分时间里，包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的官员和经济学家都认为：美国就业市场正处于"低招聘、低解雇"的状态。而当前美联储官员之间的分歧日 益加剧，一些政策制定者警告称，就业风险如今已与通胀风险不相上下。 自年初以来，根据政府主要调查数据，家庭就业人数在截至8月份的几个月内每月减少约7.2万人，劳动力参与率有所下滑，职位空缺持续下降。截至10月 底，Indeed.com报告称，职位发布数量已跌至2021年以来的最低水平，几乎所有行业的职位空缺数量都同比下降。 ADP于11月5日发布的月度报告显示，在经历了前两个月的下滑之后，私营部门就业人数增加了4.2万人。劳工部网站公布的补充数据显示，截至10月18日当 周，首次申请失业救济人数为23.2万人，与9月中旬的水平大致持平。 基于9月份的数据是在美国政府停摆前，所以未能全然反映当前美国实际的就业市场变化， ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuations in the US Dollar Index are primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the relative resilience of the US economy, and the divergence in non-USD currencies [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The October core PCE inflation rate fell to 3.5%, which was below expectations, leading multiple Federal Reserve officials to emphasize the need to maintain restrictive interest rates to solidify anti-inflation achievements [2]. - The annualized GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.9%, indicating a relatively strong economic resilience, which further enhances the attractiveness of the US dollar [2]. Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The Eurozone faces rising risks of economic stagnation, while the Bank of Japan continues its accommodative stance, and the British pound is pressured by the weakness of the UK economy, collectively exerting downward pressure on non-USD currencies [2]. - The overall weakness in non-USD currencies indirectly supports the upward movement of the US Dollar Index [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US Dollar Index has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 99.50, currently stabilizing above the key support level of 100.20, with the latest quote at 100.246 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 100.20, 100.10, and the 50-hour moving average around 100.05, while resistance is concentrated at 100.30, 100.40, and the previous upper boundary of 100.50 [3]. - Technical indicators suggest a strengthening upward trend for the index, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 22 [3].

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 卖出看涨 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 多头减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头离场观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 低位震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹承压 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 上涨受限 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York futures gold and spot gold prices have recently risen, with New York futures gold surpassing $4130 per ounce on November 19, increasing by 1.56% [1] - Spot gold also broke through $4130 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.57% [2] - On November 20, both continued to rise, with New York futures gold breaking through $4080 (down 0.09%), $4090 (up 0.19%), and $4100 (up 0.43%) [3][4][5] - Spot gold followed suit, breaking through $4080 (up 0.05%), $4090 (up 0.31%), and $4100 (up 0.55%) [6][7][8] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - According to the EIA, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels for the week ending November 14, significantly exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels, with the previous value showing an increase of 6.413 million barrels [9] - The CEO of Saudi Aramco indicated that oil demand is expected to grow strongly in 2025 and 2026 [10] Group 3: Financial Futures - The Hang Seng Index futures showed stable performance, closing up 0.02% at 25826.96 points on November 20, with a low water mark of 3.69 points [11] - Following the U.S. Labor Department's announcement to cancel the October non-farm payroll report, January futures for the federal funds rate faced significant selling, dropping to a low of 96.25, indicating reduced market expectations for a loosening of Fed policy in the coming months [12] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting revealed significant divisions among officials regarding the policy path for December, with many believing that maintaining rates may be appropriate, while a few supported another rate cut [13] - Consequently, the CME "FedWatch" tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December fell to 31.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates increased to 68.2% [14] Group 5: Currency and Stock Market - The U.S. dollar index experienced increased volatility, with the dollar rising 1% against the yen to 157.07, nearing the highest point since mid-January [15] - In the U.S. stock market, major indices closed higher on November 19, with the Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.38%, and Nasdaq up 0.59%, led by gains in technology stocks such as Google, Broadcom, and Nvidia [16]

美联储最新政策会议纪要显示，尽管多位官员对劳动力市场疲软表示担忧，但认为在年内剩余时间维持 利率稳定可能是适宜之举。咨询公司RSM首席经济学家JosephBrusuelas解读称，这份纪要"清晰揭示了 鹰鸽两派的分歧，文本暗示鹰派略占上风，他们围绕通胀固化风险提出了具有说服力的论据"。自10月 会议以来，经济背景已发生变化：美国政府停摆结束，就业与通胀等关键数据预计将恢复发布。但美国 劳工部周三表示不会发布10月失业率数据，并将合并了10月部分就业数据的11月非农数据推迟至12月16 日发布，届时美联储年内最后一次会议已落幕。Brusuelas指出这种延迟"意味着美联储面临的决策迷雾 仅部分消散。在此情况下，美联储不会也不应降息"。（格隆汇） ...

周三亚洲早盘，市场在避险需求回流、重要数据延迟以及政策前景存在分歧的背景下呈现反复震荡。随 着投资者重新审视美联储12月的政策方向，黄金借势出现企稳回升，而美元在多重信号并存的环境中继 续维持区间内高位波动。 • 关注波动风险：重大数据前后或出现价格快速拉升或回落，建议适当降低杠杆并设置严格止损。 • 中期判断需结合政策与全球风险因素，避免因单一数据作出情绪化操作。 在避险需求升温的带动下，黄金短线重新站回4070美元附近；然而，美联储官员偏鹰的观点正持续压缩 市场对年底降息的期待，使得金价上行依旧受限。随着FOMC纪要与推迟的非农数据陆续发布，市场方 向或在未来48小时内迎来关键分水岭。当前更适合以风控与事件观察为主，等待更加明确的走向再行布 局。 若非农偏弱→美元承压→黄金获得更强动能 若非农偏强→降息预期继续降温→金价或再次承压 在结果落地之前，金价大概率仍保持在4030—4080美元之间震荡整理，等待明确指引出现。 经历了连续几日的压力后，黄金（XAU/USD）在早盘重新获得部分买盘关注，价格回到约4070美元附 近。由于政府停摆造成部分关键经济指标滞后发布，市场重新评估就业表现对联储决策的权重，使得 ...

Market Performance - On November 18, gold stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced significant declines, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) dropping 8.88%, Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) down 5.38%, and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) falling 5.08% [2][3] - In A-shares, Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) fell 3.51%, Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) decreased by 3.34%, and Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) dropped 3.1% [2][3] Gold Price Trends - Spot gold prices faced heavy selling pressure, briefly falling below $4000 per ounce for the first time since November 10, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline [4][5] - As of the latest update, spot gold was reported at $4041.62 per ounce [4] Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices and stocks is primarily attributed to a strengthening US dollar and a cooling expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5][6] - Recent comments from regional Federal Reserve presidents opposing further rate cuts have contributed to market sentiment, emphasizing ongoing inflation concerns [6][7] Market Outlook - Short-term adjustments in the gold market are expected to continue, with institutions predicting a return to a price correction phase following previous optimistic expectations [9][10] - Despite recent declines, gold prices remain elevated, with a year-to-date increase of over 53%, supported by factors such as loose monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [11] Industry Recognition - The "Hong Kong 100 Strong" list is set to launch, highlighting the importance of the gold sector in the Hong Kong market, with companies like Zijin Mining (02899.HK) and Lingbao Gold being notable participants [12][13]

进入2025年11月18日，炒黄金市场仍备受全球投资者青睐。现货黄金价格近期波动明显，一度逼近4200美元/盎司后，受美联储官员相对谨慎的表态影响， 回落至4010-4100美元附近。最新数据显示，美联储对进一步宽松持审慎态度，部分官员强调需"缓慢推进"政策调整，以平衡就业与通胀风险。这虽短期支 撑美元、压制金价，但从中长期看，地缘不确定性及央行持续购金需求，仍使2025黄金行情分析整体偏向震荡向上。部分专业人士指出，在美联储仍处于渐 进宽松周期的背景下，黄金作为避险资产有望维持较强韧性。 炒黄金价格预测：2025年底金价还能冲高吗？ 当下炒黄金投资者最关注的仍是价格动向。11月以来，美国经济数据相对稳定，削弱了市场对激进降息的预期，导致金价出现阶段性回调。然而，多机构分 析认为，若美联储12月会议保持渐进宽松路径，叠加全球央行购金支撑，2025年底金价或在4000-4500美元区间运行。如何在炒黄金中抓住时机？选对平台 至关重要，它能避免高波动期遭遇执行卡顿或资金隐患，确保交易顺畅。 炒黄金怎么选平台？先看这些核心痛点 针对这些常见需求，香港黄金交易所AA类会员（如金盛贵金属）提供可靠解决方案。例如，金盛贵 ...

Core Insights - Gold continues its downward trend, seeking to retest the $4000 mark amid a strong dollar and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Market Sentiment - Gold closed below the 21-day moving average on Monday, with the daily RSI turning bearish, indicating weakness as it extends a four-day decline [2] - Risk aversion in the market has supported the dollar, which has suppressed gold prices [4] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish comments have impacted gold prices, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropping to 42% [5] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized the need for a "slow progression" towards further rate cuts, influencing market sentiment [5] Economic Data and Future Outlook - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is a key event, with the market eager for insights into the labor market, especially following a series of weak private sector employment data [6] - Despite a slight rebound in gold prices due to a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the outlook remains bearish as the dollar is expected to remain strong ahead of the economic data release [6] Technical Analysis - Gold is trading at $4022.86, with the 21-day simple moving average at $4048.65 indicating short-term momentum weakness [9] - Key resistance levels are identified at $4075.05 and $4133.50, while the 50-day moving average at $3954.55 serves as a support level [9]

11月18日周二，美元指数（DXY）在99.55附近整理，市场聚焦因政府停摆推迟的美国经济数据，其中 周四的9月非农就业报告为核心。美联储官员释放劳动力市场疲软信号，使12月降息预期降至43%。数 据与讲话落地前投资者观望情绪浓厚，美元短线方向将取决于非农表现。 美元指数技术面分析 从日线结构观察，美元指数目前运行于20日均线下方，短线趋势仍偏弱势，但99.50区域已形成较强支 撑。若指数能站稳该支撑区间，并重新突破20日均线（约99.90位置），将打开向100.50的反弹空间。 指标层面，14日RSI指标位于45-50区间，反映市场动能中性偏弱，且尚未触及超卖区域，意味着短线大 概率延续震荡格局。若后续跌破99.40支撑位，下行目标将指向99.10及98.80的阶梯式支撑区间。 官员言论的密集释放，直接引发市场对美联储政策预期的调整。据CME FedWatch工具数据显示，当前 交易员预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至43%，较一周前的62%大幅回落，与一个月前"几乎 确定降息"的市场共识形成鲜明反差。 综合来看，在重磅数据落地前，美元指数维持中性偏弱的整理格局，而劳动力市场的实际信号，将成为 锚定 ...