Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] - Cross-variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5] - Inter-period: PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [5] Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the PX/PTA main contracts rose by 3.05% and 2.27% respectively. The current PTA spot market has abundant supply, with good long - term expectations but pressure in the near - term market, requiring comprehensive judgment [1] - In the cost side, the re - balancing of Russian oil trade is in the market observation period. The market focus is on the significantly increased maritime inventory. The structure of the increased inventory is crucial for the fourth - quarter oil price trend. PX's short - term floating price rebounds, but the rebound space of PXN is limited. PTA's processing fees are compressed to a low level, with more near - term maintenance plans, but the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge after December [2] - The polyester operating rate is 91.7% (month - on - month increase of 0.3%). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly. The PF's short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fees are expected to be strong. The PR's spot processing fees are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Covers TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene US - Asia spreads (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Focuses on the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Includes filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rates, and filament profits [49][51][61] PF Detailed Data - Contains 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fees [71][81][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Covers polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fees, bottle chip export processing fees, bottle chip export profits, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [90][92][100]

Report Information - Report Title: PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 7, 2025 [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the broader market and market rumors, PTA futures rose significantly. The spot market had a mediocre trading atmosphere with weak spot basis. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made ethylene glycol vessels. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Affected by the broader market and rumors, futures rose, spot trading was mediocre, and the basis was weak. 11 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with a price range of 4480 - 4605. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 80 [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4540, 01 contract basis was - 148, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The spot market trading atmosphere is dull, mainly dominated by traders. It's expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short - term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol had a wide - range adjustment. This week, there is a concentrated arrival of foreign - made vessels, and the supply in the month is abundant [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3978, 01 contract basis was 54, with the futures price lower than the spot price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 56.7 tons, an increase of 6.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position with a reduction in short positions [7]. - Expectation: In the medium - to - long - term, there is a continuous expectation of supply surplus. It's expected that the price center will decline, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, PTA production capacity was 8062, output was 591, and consumption was 572 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in January 2024, ethylene glycol production was 51, import was 128, and consumption was 211 [12]. - **Price Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 6 and 5, 2025, as well as price changes, basis, and processing margins. For example, the spot price of PTA was 4540 yuan/ton on November 6, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [13]. 5. PTA Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for PTA [5] 6. MEG Daily View - As described in the "Daily Tips" section for MEG [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series on November 7, 2025. These include high - level fluctuations for iron ore, coke, and coking coal; wide - range oscillations for rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese; and oscillatory fluctuations for logs [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 0.19%. The position was 537,495 lots, down 7,164 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, with the basis narrowing [5]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.40%, and the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures was 3,256 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.22%. Spot prices in most regions showed small increases or remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [8]. - **Industry News**: On November 6, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed mixed trends. In late October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had different changes [9][10]. - **Trend Strength**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as well as related raw materials, showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all changed [12]. - **Industry News**: On November 6, there were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market quotations and procurement prices [12][13][14]. - **Trend Strength**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures was 1,290.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.7%, and the J2601 coke futures was 1,776.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan or 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal were mostly stable, while coke prices in some regions increased. The basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Trend Strength**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The prices of different log futures contracts showed small fluctuations, with changes in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [18]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - On November 6, 2025, A-share major indices strengthened collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 4000-point mark, rising 0.97% to close at 4007.76; the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.73% to 13452.42; the ChiNext Index rising 1.84% to 3224.62; and the STAR 50 Index rising 3.34% to 1436.86. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2055.2 billion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was strong on November 6, closing at 4693.40, up 66.15 from the previous day [2] Group 2: Coal Futures - On November 6, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1806.6, up 35.0 from the previous day. The third round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The current iron - water production has dropped significantly, and subsequent复产 amplitude is limited [2][4] - On November 6, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1305.2 yuan, up 27.9 from the previous day. The supply of coking coal remains tight, and the auction failure rate remains low. Some coal varieties have seen large price increases [3][4] Group 3: Sugar Futures - Affected by the expectation of a global sugar market surplus, the US sugar futures fluctuated slightly lower on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and consolidated on Thursday due to a large short - term decline and technical factors. Czarnikow raised its forecast for the global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season by 1.2 million tons to 8.7 million tons [4] Group 4: Rubber Futures - Affected by technical factors, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly higher at night. Most tire enterprises' device operations were stable this week, with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization rates. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase; that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal Futures - On November 6, the CBOT soybean futures closed lower, with the January soybean futures contract down 2.34% at 1108 cents per bushel. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton on November 6, down 0.16%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the soybean meal supply is sufficient, limiting the upside space for prices [5] Group 6: Live Pig Futures - On November 6, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11940 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter is expected to be sufficient, and the "supply exceeds demand" pattern in the live pig market has not fundamentally changed [5] Group 7: Copper Futures - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 86320 yuan/ton on November 6, up 890 yuan or 1.04%. Macroeconomic data was stronger than expected. The supply of domestic electrolytic copper is tight due to maintenance, and the demand side has limited acceptance of high prices. The copper price has entered an adjustment period [5] Group 8: Iron Ore Futures - On November 6, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up 0.65% at 777.5 yuan. The current iron ore shipping volume has decreased, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5] Group 9: Asphalt Futures - On November 6, the asphalt 2601 main contract fluctuated and fell 2.05% to close at 3109 yuan. The asphalt capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is being depleted, but the downstream demand is weakening, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [5] Group 10: Log Futures - On November 6, the log 2601 contract opened at 777, with a low of 776.5, a high of 781, and closed at 779, with an increase of 89 lots in positions. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually depleting inventory [7] Group 11: Cotton Futures - On the night of November 6, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 17 lots compared with the previous day. The cotton purchase in Xinjiang is 80% complete [7] Group 12: Palm Oil Futures - On November 6, the palm oil futures price rebounded from the bottom, with some short - sellers taking profits. The main contract P2601 closed with a large positive line, up 1.65% from the previous day. From November 1 - 5, 2025, the palm oil yield in Malaysia increased by 5.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.32% month - on - month, and the production increased by 6.80% month - on - month [7] Group 13: Steel Futures - On November 6, rb2601 closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3256 yuan/ton. This week, the production, inventory, and apparent demand of the five major steel products all decreased. The apparent demand for finished products decreased significantly, and the hot - rolled inventory is still increasing [7] Group 14: Alumina Futures - On November 6, ao2601 closed at 2787 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The cost support is limited. The market will continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern in the short term, and the price increase pressure is high [7] Group 15: Aluminum Futures - On November 6, al2512 closed at 21665 yuan/ton. The high aluminum price and environmental protection policies have suppressed demand, and the export demand for aluminum products has weakened. The aluminum price is at a high level, and the downstream is mainly depleting inventory. The short - term fundamental driving force for the aluminum price is limited [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific overall industry investment rating is provided, but the strategy for steel is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Iron Ore: The strategy is "oscillating weakly" [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate" [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific investment strategy is provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel market has low - price and high - volume trading, with steel prices rebounding slightly. However, due to weak real estate, potential weakening of domestic demand in infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter, and the need to exchange external demand with low prices, further production cuts are needed for inventory reduction [1] - Iron ore prices are under downward pressure due to falling steel mill profitability, reduced iron - water production, and a significant increase in iron ore arrivals [3] - Driven by the sharp rise in thermal coal prices, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. The supply of coking coal and coke is tight, and the demand shows certain resilience [5][6] - Thermal coal prices continue to rise. The downstream non - power demand is strong, and prices are expected to be firm in the short term due to winter storage expectations and difficulty in inventory accumulation [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract is 3037 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3256 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume of steel is average, with the national building materials trading volume at 11.03 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous day and a good week - on - week performance [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The weekly output of the five major steel products is 856.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.55 tons. All product outputs have declined. The real estate remains weak, and there is pressure on the domestic demand of infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter. The inventory reduction of the five major steel products has slowed down [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices are oscillating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. The trading volume of national main - port iron ore is 115.4 tons, a 6.07% increase compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot is 158.9 tons, a 6.00% increase. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous period, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.83%, a 5.19% decrease [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The apparent demand for steel has dropped significantly this week, and the steel mill profitability rate has further decreased. The iron ore arrival volume has increased significantly, and the iron - water output has decreased, resulting in reduced demand [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the rise in thermal coal prices and market sentiment, the coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating and rebounding. The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has recovered, and the trading volume is average [5][6] - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, the domestic supply recovery is slow, and imported coal is abundant, with a slightly loose overall situation but a lower inventory accumulation rate than last year. The demand is supported by the successful third - round price increase of coke. For coke, the supply is tight due to profit losses, and the demand shows certain resilience after the third - round price increase [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate". There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are rising, and the non - power demand is strong. At the ports, the trading volume of market coal is low, but traders are reluctant to sell due to rising coal mine prices and low port inventories. The price of imported coal is also rising [7] - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, prices are oscillating and rising due to tight supply in production areas. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose, but with the approaching of the winter heating season and strong non - power demand, attention should be paid to overall consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas gasoline blending demand supporting the aromatics valuation. The domestic plant operating rate is at a new high, and attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on short - flow plant operations. The cost - side aromatics gasoline blending demand supports a strong unilateral trend [11][12]. - PTA shows a strong - side oscillating market. The polyester load has rebounded more than expected, with fair rigid demand. The short - term operating rate has decreased, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the PTA processing fee should be shorted when it is above 300, with range - bound operations recommended [12]. - MEG has a large supply pressure, with the unilateral price hitting a new low. The operating rate of existing plants has increased, and the inventory at ports will accelerate accumulation from mid - November. The current price needs to test the cost line of coal - based plants, and the monthly spread should be shorted at high levels [13]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 6, the PX price rose. The late - session physical goods for December were negotiated at 824/830 and January at 816/831, with no transactions. The PX valuation on that day was 826 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars from the previous day. Despite the weakening of crude oil prices, the Asian PX price increased due to tight supply fundamentals and positive sentiment in the downstream PTA market [3]. - PTA: A 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has stopped for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. The PTA load has been adjusted to 76.4% [8]. - MEG: As of November 6, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.44% (down 3.76% from the previous period), and a 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is planned to stop for maintenance at the end of this month [8]. - Polyester: A polyester chip plant has been under maintenance this week, and the domestic polyester load is around 91.5%. The overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 75%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers on November 6 were highly differentiated, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong [9]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: - 1 [10] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6820 | 4688 | 3924 | 6244 | 460.4 | | Change | 170 | 88 | 10 | 68 | - 3.3 | | Change Rate | 2.56% | 1.91% | 0.26% | 1.10% | - 0.71% | | Month Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 14 | - 62 | - 80 | - 34 | 1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | - 8 | - 60 | - 91 | - 34 | - 1.9 | | Change | 22 | - 2 | 11 | 0 | 2.9 | | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (CNY/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 826 | 4540 | 3978 | 575.75 | 63.66 | | Previous Day's Price | 816 | 4510 | 3982 | 577.5 | 64.56 | | Change | 10 | 30 | - 4 | - 1.75 | - 0.9 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 239.83 | 120.05 | 273.44 | 78.76 | - 4.34 | | Previous Day's Price | 243.71 | 162.45 | 263.33 | 59.77 | - 4.34 | | Change | - 3.88 | - 42.39 | 10.11 | 18.99 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View - In the short term, the decline rate of butadiene rubber has slowed down. The decrease in butadiene rubber inventory and the improvement in spot trading have supported the price. In the medium term, the weak performance of butadiene has led to a downward shift in the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. With the decline in the cost side, the processing profit of butadiene rubber has expanded significantly. Under the neutral background of butadiene rubber's own fundamentals, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. The macro - driving force has weakened, and butadiene rubber is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (01 contract) increased by 70 yuan/ton to 10,305 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 4,704 lots to 128,144 lots, the open interest increased by 327 lots to 83,941 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 16,845 ten - thousand yuan to 653,280 ten - thousand yuan. The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract increased by 30 to - 5, and the monthly spread (BR12 - BR01) decreased by 10 to 80 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,300 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton and 125 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 2.44 percentage points to 66.7364%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 9,607 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 593 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 2.93 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.15%. During this period, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, the negotiation center continued to decline, and the cost side continued to have a negative impact. The downstream pressured for lower prices, and some production enterprises were under maintenance, resulting in a decrease in both production enterprise and trading enterprise inventories [1]. - From October 23 - 29, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% from the previous week, and the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% from the previous week. It is expected that the import volume from October to November will still be abundant [4].

多晶硅：消息面预期落空，盘面或大幅下跌 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 07 日 工业硅：关注底部支撑 | 指标名称 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 9,065 | 45 | -90 | 455 | | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 228,497 | -47,699 | -92,494 | -164,205 | | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 236,855 | 4,006 | 9,091 | 29,878 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 53,395 | 40 | -1,555 | - | | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 256,104 | 80,868 | 32,190 | - | | | | | PS260 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA partial device load reduction leads to a slight decline in start - up, while polyester load increases, inventory accumulates slightly, and the basis strengthens. PX domestic start - up recovers, and PXN expands. Considering the long - term low processing fees and improved terminal data, the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based restart and overseas device restart lead to a decline in port inventory at the beginning of the week, but the long - term pattern is bearish due to high inventory. However, there may be negative feedback on the supply side after the decline in coal - based benefits, and attention should be paid to coal - based cost support [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term restart of Fujian Shanli increases the start - up, but sales decline. The overall efficiency and start - up of the polyester yarn end have not improved significantly. With high exports and good spot efficiency, the overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees and warehouse receipts [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by 0.1, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 35, and the PTA processing fee increased by 24. The basis was - 76, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(-76) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 - million - ton device reduced its load [2]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 2, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 2. The basis was around +76 for 01 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Tongliao's 300,000 - ton device restarted [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 15, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 25. The spot price was around 6332, and the market basis was around - 10 for 12 [3]. - **Device Changes**: Fujian Shanli restarted, and the start - up increased to 96.8% [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 195. The mixed - rubber price increased by 200 [6]. - **Key Indicators Changes**: The mixed - rubber to RU main contract spread increased by 5, and the US - dollar Thai standard rubber to NR main contract spread decreased by 66 [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From October 31 to November 6, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by 10, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 160 [9]. - **Profit Changes**: The styrene domestic profit increased by 30, and the EPS domestic profit increased by 28 [9].

Report Information - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Journal - Report Date: November 7, 2025 - Report Institution: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise of urea futures is difficult to change the long - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the short - term futures price may maintain a narrow - range shock, the long - term price is likely to return to a weak consolidation state. Opportunities for short - term long positions can be grasped, and the follow - up market depends on the export quota policy [3][4]. - For A - share index futures, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. - For gold, after more than a week of adjustment, there are signs of stabilization, and low - level buying for long positions can be considered [12]. - For iron ore, considering the possible short - term decline of hot metal and the approaching of the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range, low - level long positions can be considered, but long - term supply is expected to be loose [15][16]. - For glass, pay attention to the long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes at a low level, and the subsequent driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies [19][20]. - For eggs, as the supply of eggs will be seasonally tight, long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. - For pulp, due to the stable supply and cautious purchasing attitude, it is expected to run weakly, and a low - level oscillation should be considered [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On November 6, the urea futures 2601 contract closed at 1,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.74% increase. The rise was mainly boosted by the spot end, strengthening the short - term bullish expectation [3]. - Currently, the agricultural demand for urea is in the final stage, while the industrial demand from compound fertilizer enterprises shows a phenomenon of following up on purchases when the price is low. However, in 2025, urea is in a capacity expansion cycle, with nearly 7 million tons of new capacity added throughout the year, and the supply is expected to be loose [3]. A - share Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened higher and moved higher in the morning and maintained an oscillating upward trend throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.06 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index finally standing firmly above 4,000 points. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7][8]. Gold - After more than a week of adjustment, gold shows signs of stabilization, and low - level buying for long positions can be considered [12]. Iron Ore - After the holiday, there is no actual improvement at the terminal, and hot metal may decline in the short term. Technically, it is approaching the lower edge of the daily - level oscillation range, so low - level long positions can be considered. In the long term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent driving force lies in policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side. Pay attention to the long - position opportunities after the price stabilizes at a low level [19][20]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, egg production in major laying - hen areas in the north will enter the winter off - season, and in the south, it will enter the early stage of the winter off - season. The monthly supply of commercial eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable. The price increase of downstream paper enterprises has boosted the pulp price, and the futures have increased in position and price. However, the supply is still loose, and the purchasing attitude is cautious. It is expected to run weakly, and a low - level oscillation should be considered [25].