2025/4/29 09:58 【国富期货早间看点】USDA 18% CONAB 94.8% 20250429 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆播种率为18%高于市场预期 CONAB巴西大豆收割率为94.8% 20250429 2025年04月29日 07:35 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3993.00 | -2.39 | 0. 81 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 64. 53 | -1.97 | -0. 45 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 61.89 | -2.03 | -0. 39 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1061. 25 | 0. 19 | 0.57 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296. 00 | -0. 77 | 0. 44 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 50. 46 | 1.53 | 0.56 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 940 | ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-04-29 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3129元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3237元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，全 国库存为882.11万吨，环比上周减少2.47%。其中，钢材库存环比减少5.11%，热卷环比增加2.69%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般，昨日全国建材成交12.05万吨。 综合来看：螺纹目前基本面表现良好，产量增长受到利润压制，消费维持韧性，库存降幅扩大。热卷由于关税政 策拖累，板材产销均受到影响，尤其是冷轧和镀锌等相关性较高的品种，受到的冲击较为明显，由于国内钢材的 高性价比，后期可以通过转口等方式，化解部分对美的出口损失，但是需要时间逐步解决。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，铁矿小幅回落 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅回落。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于710.5/吨，跌幅0.49%。现货方面，唐山 港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 市场节前备货积极性相对较差 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-04-28，LME铅现货升水为-17.91美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -100元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75 元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-100元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-100元/吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-100元/吨 至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28，沪铅主力合约开于16940元/吨，收于17005元/吨，较前一交易日变化60元/吨，全天交易日 成交40549手，较前一交易日变化2570手，全天交易日持仓38819手，手较前一交易日变化86手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17010元/吨，最低 ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-04-29 纯苯港口库存未有进一步累积 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.00万吨（-0.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费149美元/吨（-8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费131美元/吨（-10美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差43.5美元/吨（+10.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2 价差30元/吨（-10元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差186元/吨（-12元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-146元/吨（+24元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85200吨（-1300吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存58200吨（-6900吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率67.9%（+1.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润558元/吨（+15元/吨），PS生产利润8元/吨（-35元/吨），ABS生产利润1029元/吨（+28 元/吨）。EPS开工率57.04%（-2.03%），PS开工率59.20%（-1.60%），ABS开工率65.08%（-1.91%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 纯苯方面，下游开工最低点已过，但总体己内酰胺及苯胺开工水 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Red dates: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current spot price of apples is generally firm due to low inventory and few low - priced fruits. New - season apples in the west are in the late flowering and fruit - setting stages with uneven fruit - setting, while those in Shandong are in the full - bloom and late - bloom stages with flower quantity similar to last year. The weather has a significant impact on apple production. Overall, the market is expected to see smooth transactions and prices remaining stable with a slight upward trend this week, but price increases may slow down in the future [3] - Red dates: The peak consumption season of red dates has passed, and the current futures and spot prices are at historical lows. The overall market trading volume has increased, and the off - season will last until September. The focus will shift to the growth of new - season red dates, and weather changes need to be closely monitored [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 176 yuan/ton or - 2.18% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.30 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,070 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton or - 0.11% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The pre - holiday stocking in apple - producing areas around the May Day holiday is coming to an end. The packaging and shipping in warehouses are active. The market in the western producing areas is smooth, and in Shandong, high - cost - performance goods are selling well. The supply in the sales areas is increasing, and the downstream is purchasing as needed [2] Red dates - The jujube trees in the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey dates have entered the budding stage. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival of finished products has increased, and the mainstream transactions have shifted to average - quality goods. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, the arrival is 2 trucks, and the prices are stable [5] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price closed down. The remaining inventory in the producing areas is still at a low level, and the terminal sales are stable. The market is expected to perform well during the holiday. The current low inventory and lack of low - priced fruits support the spot price. The new - season apple production is affected by weather, especially in the west where fruit - setting is uneven [3] Red dates - The red date futures price closed slightly down yesterday. The supply in the sales areas is sufficient, and the downstream is purchasing as needed. The overall trading volume has increased. The off - season will last until September, and the focus will be on the growth of new - season red dates and the impact of weather [6] Group 6: Strategies - Apple: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Red dates: Neutral [7]

| 十미 [2011 ] 1292号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月29日 | | | | 纪工非 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月28日 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 9550 | 9600 | -50 | -0.52% | | | 章美(通到SI5530星准) | 770 | 725 | 45 | 6.21% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10400 | 10450 | -50 | -0.48% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 820 | 775 | 45 | 5.81% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8800 | 8800 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 725 | ರಿನ | 13.10% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月28日 | 1月0日 | 演 佚 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 250 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-29 供需驱动不足，烧碱延续弱势整理 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4989元/吨（+28）；华东基差-159元/吨（-8）;华南基差-139元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-533元/吨（+27）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-584元/吨（-18）；PVC出口利润13.7美元/吨（+0.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.0万吨（+0.9）；PVC社会库存42.1万吨（-2.1）；PVC电石法开工率77.22%（-0.78%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.67%（+4.67%）；PVC开工率75.67%（+0.67%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量60.2万吨（+3.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2441元/吨（+2）；山东32%液碱基差-4元/吨（-96）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a situation of insufficient demand and over - capacity, with a bearish outlook but influenced by domestic policies and trade conditions [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, remaining in a weak and volatile state [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and upcoming demand release, with prices expected to move within a certain range [6]. - The methanol market has a decrease in domestic supply, a stable downstream demand, and a differentiation in inventory, with a short - term bullish and volatile trend [8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak market outlook but potential support from tariffs [9]. Summaries by Product PVC - On April 28, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4989 yuan/ton (+28), with different market prices in various regions. Long - term demand is depressed due to the real estate sector, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. Currently, it is macro - dominated, and its performance depends on policies and trade conditions [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 28, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2441 yuan/ton (+2). Last week, supply was sufficient, demand did not improve, and prices declined. The market is currently characterized by low warehouse receipts, high inventory, and limited demand growth, with a weak and volatile trend [3]. Rubber - On April 28, the rubber market was volatile. NR was weak due to upcoming harvest in Thailand, RU had some support from purchases, and BR was the weakest due to crude oil influence. The market is expected to be driven by weak demand and sufficient supply, and its performance is related to policies and tariffs [4]. Urea - The urea main contract rose 1.08% to close at 1781 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, and demand from rice and corn fertilization is expected to be released around May Day. The market is in a state of seasonal inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to move between 1730 - 1850 [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract rose 0.96% to close at 2310 yuan/ton. The device's operating rate decreased, domestic supply shrank, downstream demand was stable, and inventory was differentiated. It is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short - term, with prices in the range of 2200 - 2350 [8]. Plastic - On April 28, the plastic main contract rose 0.20% to close at 7164 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is large, downstream demand is weak, and the market outlook is weak, but tariffs may provide some support [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is "cautiously bearish" [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is "neutral" [5] 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the rolling entry of secondary fattening and farmers' reluctance to sell continue. The pre - May Day stocking demand may boost spot prices, and the slaughtering enterprise's开工率 will rise. But in the long - term, with the slow recovery of the fertile sow data, there is supply pressure in the pig market [2] - Near May Day, although there is an increase in egg consumption due to supermarket and e - commerce promotions and tourism catering, the overall demand is still weak, and the short - term oversupply pattern is hard to change [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2509 contract was 14,130 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton (- 0.14%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer ternary pigs was 14.88 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 15.16 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.32 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork on April 28 was 20.87 yuan/kg, up 1.3% from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - Short - term: Secondary fattening and farmers' reluctance to sell continue. Pre - May Day stocking may boost prices, and the supply and slaughtering enterprise's开工率 will increase [2] - Long - term: The fertile sow data is slowly recovering, leading to supply pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is "cautiously bearish" [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2506 contract was 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 31.00 yuan (- 1.03%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.33 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 3.07 yuan/jin. On April 28, the production - link inventory was 1.29 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.81 days [3] Market Analysis - Demand: Near May Day, consumption is boosted by promotions and tourism catering, but overall demand is still weak due to insufficient terminal consumption and concerns about egg storage [4] - Market Pattern: The short - term oversupply pattern is hard to change, and the consumer end has limited ability to accept high prices [4] Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is "neutral" [5]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-04-29 假期临近，厂家库存压力有限 市场分析 1、\t4月28日地区价格：山东市场，4790—4880；东北市场，4450—4630；华北市场，4760—4850；华东市场， 4750—4960；沿江市场，5200—5400；西北市场，4720—4900；华南市场，5050—5180。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年5月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷652美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷589美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 币价格丙烷5171元/吨，涨46元/吨，丁烷4671元/吨，跌2元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年5月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷649美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷586美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 币价格丙烷5147元/吨，涨46元/吨，丁烷4648元/吨，跌1元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 现货方面，市场整体价格稳中小涨，节前上游积极出货，下游有一定观望，逢低采购，整体厂家库存压力尚可。 国际原油价格近期呈现震荡反弹的态势，宏观情绪相比关税风波初期有所缓和，但不确定性仍然较多。供应方面， 上游整体供应充裕，近期随厂家大力出货，市场回归基本 ...