Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and the futures market is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of commodities such as coking coal. The polysilicon futures market is influenced by both weak reality and anti - involution policy expectations, with the current policy situation unclear and the market expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [1][7] - For industrial silicon, the spot price has slightly declined, and the market is in a state where the consumption side is in a stalemate of low - price transactions, and the supply side inventory has decreased slightly. For polysilicon, the spot price is stable, but the supply has increased in July - August, and the consumption side's production arrangement is average, resulting in a pattern of inventory accumulation [1][2][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8525 yuan/ton and closed at 8525 yuan/ton, a change of - 135 yuan/ton (- 1.56%) compared with the previous day's settlement. The closing position of the main contract was 275,558 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,709 lots, a decrease of 113 lots compared with the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon has slightly decreased. The prices of some silicon products in various regions have declined, and the social inventory has decreased by 0.2 tons to 543,000 tons compared with last week [1] - **Consumption Side**: The price of organic silicon DMC is 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of main organic silicon products is close to the enterprise cost line, and the market is in a stalemate of low - price transactions, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On August 27, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures opened at 50,915 yuan/ton and closed at 48,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.89%. The position of the main contract reached 154,537 lots, and the trading volume was 502,410 lots [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The supply increased significantly from July to August, and the inventory is in an accumulating pattern. The production arrangement of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components on the consumption side is average. There is a possibility of industry self - disciplined production reduction in September, which may relieve the supply pressure to some extent [7] - **Terminal Consumption**: After the previous rush to install, the domestic installation performance from June to July was average. In July, the newly - added photovoltaic installation in the country was 11.64GW, a year - on - year decrease of 44.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 18.9% [7] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 15.76 billion yuan (YoY -7.14%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.57 billion yuan (YoY -29.47%) [8] - In Q2 2025, the company experienced a recovery in product price differentials and sales volume, supported by downstream replenishment demand and a decline in coal costs [8] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan in 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.97 billion yuan, while maintaining profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 34.23 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 25.6% [2] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 3.52 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 9.9% YoY [2] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 1.66 yuan, with a PE ratio of 16 [2] Market Data - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 26.40 yuan, with a market capitalization of 55.95 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.8 and a dividend yield of 2.27% [3] Product Performance - In Q2 2025, product sales showed significant recovery, with sales volume changes for various products: fertilizers (+29.8%), organic amines (+6.5%), and acetic acid (+19.6%) [8] - The average price differentials for major products in Q2 were reported, indicating a recovery in profitability [8] Strategic Development - The company is advancing its "dual aircraft carrier" development model, with new high-end chemical projects set to commence production in the coming years [8] - The domestic chemical industry is undergoing a "de-involution" policy, which is expected to optimize the industry structure by phasing out outdated and high-pollution capacities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a narrowed loss in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 2.626 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -149 million yuan, indicating operational challenges due to price fluctuations and weak downstream demand [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.626 billion yuan and a net profit of -149 million yuan, showing an improvement in losses compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's performance was impacted by cyclical fluctuations in product sales prices and the transition of new projects to solid status [1] Group 2: Business Growth and Market Position - The MLCC release film business saw significant growth, with sales volume increasing by 118.6% and sales revenue rising by 144.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company successfully broke into the market with its high-smooth release film, replacing imports and achieving stable supply to major domestic clients [2] - The MLCC release film project is progressing steadily, with a planned capacity of 500 million square meters to be completed within the year, and an overall project scale expected to reach 2 billion square meters [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Policy Impact - The domestic "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the BOPET industry outlook, alleviating supply-demand imbalances and price pressures [3] - The policy aims to promote self-discipline in the industry and accelerate the upgrade of domestic manufacturers towards high-end and specialized products [3] Group 4: Research and Development - The company invested 106 million yuan in R&D in the first half of 2025, focusing on quality improvement, product variety, and structural adjustment, resulting in 39 new patent applications and 15 patents granted [3] - The company was recognized in the "Top 100 Science and Technology Enterprises in China's Light Industry" list due to its R&D efforts and patent achievements [3] Group 5: Product Diversification - The company made significant progress in the carrier copper foil sector, receiving initial customer recognition and preparing for a second procurement contract [4] - The company has established a diverse product range, with over 60 series, 100 types, and more than 500 specifications across five major fields [4] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on industry opportunities arising from the "anti-involution" policy and ongoing technological innovations [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a downward trend with no new driving forces, and the price center of gravity has shifted downwards. The market is in a daily - level correction trend without signs of stabilization. The spread between near - and far - month contracts has slightly widened, but it is not considered sustainable. The overall industrial data shows little change, with weak upward price drivers and lackluster terminal demand. The market risk preference is expected to marginally improve, and the steel futures price valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. - The double - silicon market has followed the weakening of the black sector. Although the anti - involution policy provides long - term support, the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. The profit of alloy plants has been repaired, and the supply has continued to increase [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is in a weak state. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. The coking coal auction has a high non - successful bid rate, and the market is mainly trading based on the verification of peak - season actual demand and the performance of steel inventories [5]. - The iron ore market has seen a decline in commodity sentiment. Although the apparent demand for major steel products has rebounded, the iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress price increases. The impact of future policies on the steel sector may have a greater influence on iron ore price fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On August 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2601, HC2601, etc. showed varying degrees of decline. For example, RB2601 closed at 3172 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan (- 1.06%); the closing prices of near - month contracts also declined, with RB2510 closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.48%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between near - and far - month contracts, such as the spread between RB2510 and RB2601, were - 61 yuan on August 27, with a change of - 13 yuan. The spread/ratio/ profit indicators like the coil - to - screw spread, screw - to - ore ratio, etc., also had corresponding changes [1]. **Steel Products** - **Market Trend**: The market continued to decline slightly on Wednesday, in a daily - level correction trend without signs of stabilization. The spread between near - and far - month contracts widened slightly, but it is not considered sustainable. The industrial data showed little change, with weak upward price drivers and lackluster terminal demand. The market risk preference is expected to marginally improve, and the steel futures price valuation has been repaired to a neutral range [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize for unilateral trading, and stop losses and wait and see after short - term long positions. For spot - futures trading, positive spreads can be taken profit or rolled over according to the basis changes [7]. **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon** - **Market Trend**: The double - silicon market has followed the weakening of the black sector. The anti - involution policy provides long - term support, but the industry still has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. The profit of alloy plants has been repaired, and the supply has continued to increase [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Trend**: The coking coal auction has a high non - successful bid rate, and the eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts in September. The market is mainly trading based on the verification of peak - season actual demand and the performance of steel inventories [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to whether the impact of the mine accident will spread, and industrial customers can pay attention to hedging opportunities after the price rises [7]. **Iron Ore** - **Market Trend**: The short - term commodity price has fallen after rising, and the upward momentum of the sector is insufficient. The iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which will suppress price increases. The impact of future policies on the steel sector may have a greater influence on iron ore price fluctuations [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text.

8月24日，中金公司发布研报指出，三季度以来油价相对稳定，炼化整体盈利水平有望改善，看好2026 年石化产业链盈利修复，维持荣盛石化跑赢行业评级。 随着国家"反内卷"政策组合拳的密集落地，一场以淘汰低效产能、规范市场竞争、提升供给质量为核心 的行业洗牌正在加速。据相关数据统计，目前我国仍有约4880万吨规模不足200万吨的小产能尚未退 出，占现有炼能约5%。此外，炼能在 200（含）至 300（含）万吨/年的产能有 1.45 亿吨，占比约 15%。 随着各项反内卷政策的持续推进和落实，炼化行业有望迎来新的发展局面。从供给端来看，伴随老旧装 置的淘汰和产能的优化，行业集中度将进一步提高，资源将向优势企业集中，行业龙头企业凭借规模、 技术与合规优势，正迎来新一轮发展机遇。作为全球领先的化工材料生产商之一，荣盛石化主导运营全 球单体最大的炼化一体化项目4000万吨/年绿色石化基地，在当前增量有限、减量出清的竞争格局优化 背景下将持续受益。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 供应支撑趋缓，焦煤高位回调 | | | | | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | | | | | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着淡季临近，电煤需求将进入季节性下滑的阶段，而非电端并无实质性利好出现， 动力煤需求侧不确定性有限，市场博弈焦点仍在于供应端。特别是在当前"反内卷"政策导向下， 虽然实际产能退出规模仍需验证，但市场预期已有所好转，后续不排除行业协会和煤企会将进一 步配合出台相关政策措施，供应端消息面仍有望形成利好支撑。综合来看，近期煤炭市场或将由 "强现实"逻辑逐步转向"弱预期"逻辑，煤价或阶段性见顶，但在"反内卷"政策支撑下，预 计 9 月动力煤 ...

十年国债ETF（511260）8月27日上涨0.07%，表现稳健。从活跃券利率来看，10年期国债收益率在1.8 左右存在支撑，或因长期配置型资金入场。我们认为，可以坚持波段操作思路：考虑到1.8的支撑位， 若收益率位于1.75以上，则配置长债仍有性价比；但由于宏观预期向好，收益率下行突破的概率同样偏 低，因此可进行高抛低吸的波段操作。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关 规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金 有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 从情绪的角度来看，股市的强势对债券产生压制，悲观预期较强。从历史分析来看，股债跷跷板并不稳 定，因为债市的主要配置盘（如银行、保险）出于风险的考量，并不会将资金从债市大量搬入股市。但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward trend, the medium - term view is upward, and the overall view is upward. Although the stock market had a technical adjustment yesterday due to profit - taking of some funds, the previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market. However, as the stock index has risen continuously, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IH2509**: Short - term (within a week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is upward, intraday is oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **IF, IH, IC, IM**: Yesterday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 3197.8 billion yuan, an increase of 488 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The afternoon decline was due to the profit - taking of some stocks that had risen significantly. The previous rebound was supported by policy - side positive expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the gentle recovery of price indexes, and drive a positive cycle. The capital market has loose liquidity, and the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market has increased. However, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical quantile level, and the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds has increased. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1 - The retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.285 million units from August 1 to 24, representing a 3% increase year-on-year and month-on-month, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 14.031 million units, up 10% year-on-year [1] - Guohai Securities anticipates that the vehicle replacement policy will catalyze passenger car sales in 2024, with continued support for automotive consumption in 2025, highlighting investment opportunities in the automotive sector [1] - Key areas of focus include: 1) The rise of domestic brands entering a new phase of high-end development, benefiting companies with quality offerings priced above 300,000 yuan; 2) The "affordability" of advanced driving technology is expected to significantly increase its penetration rate, benefiting leading automakers and related components; 3) A complex export environment, with optimism for quality component companies experiencing upward operational cycles; 4) In the commercial vehicle sector, demand for heavy trucks is at a three-year low but is expected to recover in 2025, while the bus sector is anticipated to see continued growth in both domestic and export demand [1] Group 2 - Founder Securities notes that a strong cycle of new product launches from leading automakers is likely to accelerate the restructuring of market segments [2] - The "anti-involution" policy and industry self-discipline are driving continuous optimization of the industry operating environment, with July's overall discount in the automotive market stabilizing at 25%, indicating initial effects of policy regulation [2] - As July is traditionally a slow season for automotive consumption, the upcoming peak season combined with new product launches from top automakers is expected to lead to a recovery in industry demand, pushing the sector into an upward cycle of prosperity, with the current dynamic PE of the passenger car sector at the 39th percentile over the past five years, indicating room for valuation recovery [2]