Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause [15] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17] - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating geopolitical tensions, with President Trump claiming the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro [20] - Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25] Domestic Events & Data - During the New Year holiday, domestic travel intensity increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to slow to 4.6%, with a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [1][14] - Industrial production is projected to maintain steady growth, significantly supporting the overall GDP growth target [2][15] - External demand remains resilient, with export growth expected to continue positively [1][5] Production - The industrial added value growth rate for December is estimated at 5.0%, with an annual growth rate of 5.9% for 2025, significantly higher than GDP growth [2][15] - Improvement in demand is noted, driven by pre-holiday inventory buildup and construction progress [2][16] - Manufacturing enterprises are experiencing improved production and market demand, with production growth slightly outpacing demand [2][16] Consumption - The retail sales growth rate for December is expected to be 1.5%, a slight increase from 1.3% [3][19] - Policies supporting the replacement of old products are anticipated to bolster consumer spending, particularly in durable goods [3][19] - The automotive sector continues to face challenges with declining sales and increased discounts, impacting overall retail recovery [3][20] Investment - Fixed asset investment for 2025 is projected to decline by 3.3%, with manufacturing investment showing resilience at 1.2% growth, while infrastructure and real estate investments are under pressure [4][23] - The investment environment has been notably weak since June 2025, with a focus on stabilizing growth in 2026 [4][25] - Manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments are expected to jointly drive growth in early 2026, with a projected increase of 2.5% for the year [4][25][30] Export - December export growth is anticipated at 3.9%, with an annual growth rate of 6.6% for 2026, supported by stable external demand from non-developed countries [5][5] - The stabilization of US-China trade relations and reduced trade friction with Europe and Japan are expected to benefit exports [5][5] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate for December is expected to be 0.7%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected at -1.9% [6][6] - The overall price level is expected to remain stable, with core CPI showing signs of recovery [6][6] Employment - The urban unemployment rate for December is projected to rise slightly to 5.2%, influenced by seasonal factors [7][7] - Continued policy support is expected to help stabilize employment, particularly for vulnerable groups [7][7] Monetary Policy - Financial data for December indicates continued pressure, with new loans and social financing expected to decline [8][8] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for flexible monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [8][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong upward trend in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 23.45%, driven by active trading and improved market sentiment [1][12]. Market Performance - The trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market significantly increased compared to previous years, indicating heightened trading activity and a broad release of market profit potential [1]. - The year saw a clear phase rotation in the market, with different sectors driving the market's upward movement at various times, including AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-competitive policies leading to industrial optimization [3][5]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector was a major player in the market, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.74% in Q1 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 15.25% increase during the same period [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector gained momentum due to a surge in business development (BD) transactions, benefiting from improved global liquidity as the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle [4][5]. - The metals sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, emerged as the strongest performer by year-end, with copper stocks rising by 261.85%, gold and precious metals by 197.85%, and other metals and mining stocks by 187.91% [6][7]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable individual stock performances included Zijin Mining (02899.HK) rising by 162%, Shandong Gold (01787.HK) increasing by over 183%, and Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) climbing nearly 281% [9]. - The stock of珠峰黄金 (01815.HK) skyrocketed by over 1286%, marking it as a rare "tenfold" stock in a year [9]. Investment Drivers - The rise in non-ferrous metals was attributed to multiple favorable factors, including the global trend of "de-dollarization," supply-demand imbalances in industrial metals, and domestic policies optimizing supply structures [6][10]. - The rapid development of emerging industries such as AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals provided a wealth of high-growth investment opportunities, supporting long-term stock price increases [12][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect the Hong Kong stock market to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by improved liquidity and corporate profit recovery, with a potential shift in market driving logic from valuation recovery to profit growth [13].

近期，多家公募机构发布了2026年投资策略展望。多位业内人士表示，2026年的市场值得乐观期待，上 涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利+估值"双重驱动，上市公司的整体业绩有望进一步改善， 结构性亮点大概率增多，有利于提高市场风险偏好。在众多板块中，科技成为公募机构普遍看好的主线 之一。 整体投资环境具备较强支撑性 展望2026年，财通基金副总经理、权益投资总监、基金经理金梓才表示，A股市场有望步入整体环境更 优、结构性特征深化的发展阶段，核心驱动力源于全球流动性环境的进一步改善，以及以AI为代表的 产业趋势进入加速兑现期，整体投资环境具备较强支撑性。 宏观层面，金梓才认为，全球与国内流动性环境预计同步向好，为市场奠定坚实基础。外部来看，美联 储2026年降息节奏或加快，A股面临的外部约束大幅减弱，海外资金环境更趋友好；内部而言，国内货 币政策将持续为经济高质量发展与产业升级提供支持，维持流动性合理充裕。内外部流动性的协同改 善，将有效提升市场风险偏好，为估值修复创造有利条件。 华宝基金认为，在"反内卷"政策进一步深化与落地的节奏下，供给层面的边际变化有望带动PPI进一步 上行，具体幅度取决于"反内卷"和 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 was characterized as a "differentiated game year" for commodities, with significant movements in gold and silver, disappointing performance in crude oil, and notable rises in platinum and palladium [1][12]. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector experienced a "bull market" in 2025, with gold prices reaching historical highs in the first half and silver following suit in the second half, leading to increased investment interest [3][15][16]. - Analysts predict continued upward potential for the precious metals sector in 2026, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [3][17]. - Gold prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in opportunity costs for holding gold, while silver is anticipated to have stronger price elasticity due to its dual role as a precious and industrial metal [3][17]. Non-Ferrous and New Energy Metals Sector - The non-ferrous and new energy metals sector showed significant differentiation in 2025, with lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and international copper leading in price increases, while aluminum oxide and industrial silicon faced declines [3][18][19]. - Analysts foresee copper and tin emerging as leading commodities in 2026, with a focus on the sustainability of lithium demand and the resolution of polysilicon production capacity issues [3][20]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector faced challenges in 2025 due to oversupply, with most products under pressure, except for PX and PTA which saw price increases [3][21][22]. - Analysts expect continued pressure on crude oil prices in 2026, with a focus on structurally sound products like the aromatics chain [3][22]. Agricultural Products Sector - The agricultural products sector showed overall weakness in 2025, with some products like apples and cotton performing better than livestock [3][23]. - Analysts predict a potential turnaround in 2026, particularly for live pigs and cotton, driven by supply adjustments and reduced planting areas [3][23]. Black Building Materials Sector - The black building materials sector experienced a "flat" year in 2025, characterized by weak demand and limited cost support, leading to price declines for many products [3][24]. - Expectations for 2026 include potential improvements driven by macro policy changes, with structural differentiation among products becoming more pronounced [3][24]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures market saw a "small bull market" in 2025, with expectations for a "slow bull" market in 2026, driven by improving corporate earnings and a shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics [3][25][26]. - Key sectors to watch in 2026 include those benefiting from strong industry trends and policy support, particularly in the AI sector and cyclical stocks [3][26].

Summary of Conference Call on Automotive Industry and Policies Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the automotive industry, specifically focusing on passenger vehicles and commercial trucks, with an emphasis on the 2026 automotive subsidy policies and market outlook [1][2][3]. Key Points on 2026 Automotive Subsidy Policies - **Total Subsidy Amount**: The total subsidy for 2026 is set at 300 billion, with approximately 150 billion allocated to the automotive sector. Funds will be distributed more evenly across quarters to avoid issues seen in 2025 [1][3]. - **Subsidy Structure Changes**: The subsidy method will shift from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, favoring models priced above 150,000 yuan. For electric vehicles, the scrappage subsidy is 12% (up to 20,000 yuan), while for fuel vehicles, it is 10% (up to 1,500 yuan) [1][3]. - **Incentives for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)**: NEVs will receive higher scrappage and replacement subsidies compared to fuel vehicles, indicating a strong policy push towards electric mobility [1][4]. Market Outlook for 2026 - **Passenger Vehicle Market**: The overall expectation for the passenger vehicle market in 2026 is positive, with a forecasted wholesale volume of approximately 30 million units, remaining stable compared to 2025. Domestic demand is expected to decline slightly by 2%, while exports are projected to grow by 10% to 6 million units [2][8]. - **Commercial Vehicle Market**: The commercial vehicle sector, particularly heavy-duty trucks, is expected to see a slight decline or stabilization in domestic sales, estimated at around 750,000 units. However, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in this segment is anticipated to rise to 32%-35% [2][15]. Investment Opportunities - **Valuation and Investment Timing**: The current valuation of the automotive sector is considered low, at the 60th percentile of the past five years. The new policies and positive January data are expected to drive a significant upward trend in the first quarter [2][9]. - **Focus on Specific Brands**: Brands such as Geely, BYD, and Leap Motor are highlighted as having beta attributes that may benefit from the new policies. Additionally, companies like XPeng Motors and Changan Automobile are recommended for their potential in self-driving and international expansion [2][10]. Regulatory and Market Dynamics - **Regulatory Changes**: Stricter regulations to prevent subsidy fraud are expected to enhance consumer confidence and promote healthy market growth. The government aims to ensure that subsidies effectively reach consumers [5][6]. - **Impact of Economic Conditions**: Despite uncertainties in the overall economic environment, the demand for high-end NEVs is expected to continue growing, supported by consumer upgrade trends [5]. Commercial Vehicle Specifics - **Subsidy Impact on Heavy-Duty Trucks**: The scrappage and replacement subsidies for commercial vehicles are more substantial than anticipated, with diesel and natural gas vehicles receiving over 25% and NEVs up to 30% in subsidies [2][13]. - **Export Market Growth**: The export market for heavy-duty trucks is projected to benefit from infrastructure development in Africa and Southeast Asia, with an expected growth rate of 15% or higher in 2026 [2][17][18]. Conclusion - The automotive industry is poised for a transformative year in 2026, driven by favorable subsidy policies, a shift towards new energy vehicles, and a stable market outlook for both passenger and commercial vehicles. Investment opportunities are emerging, particularly in brands that align with the new regulatory environment and consumer trends.

Core Insights - The event held by Jiufang Zhituo focused on investment opportunities and challenges in the context of China's economic landscape as it transitions into the 14th Five-Year Plan's conclusion and the 15th Five-Year Plan's initiation [1][2] Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of 4% to 5% in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and technological advancements [1][4] - The global economy is projected to continue its stable recovery, with the U.S. economy growing around 3% and Europe experiencing moderate recovery [4] Policy and Market Dynamics - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes stabilizing economic growth, enhancing consumption rates above 50%, and driving industrial upgrades through technological innovation [4][6] - The capital market is shifting from a "financing main channel" to a "capital allocation hub," focusing on innovation and balanced investment [11] Investment Opportunities - High-end manufacturing, technology consumption, and artificial intelligence are identified as key sectors for structural investment opportunities [1][4] - The A-share market is expected to see a growth range of 10% to 20% in 2026, with a focus on technology, resources, and consumer sectors [10][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI sector is anticipated to shift from upstream computing power to downstream applications, with significant investment opportunities in mobile technology and AI healthcare applications [14][19] - The precious metals market is expected to remain strong, with gold and silver benefiting from ongoing demand and market dynamics [15][21] Technological Advancements - The fourth technological revolution, characterized by AI, green energy, and quantum information, positions China to potentially lead in new technological arenas during the 15th Five-Year Plan [7][19] - The nuclear fusion sector is highlighted as a strategic focus, with significant investment opportunities in companies involved in core equipment and large scientific projects [21]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 23.45% [2][4] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market significantly increased compared to previous years, indicating heightened trading activity and a broad release of market profit potential [2] - The market's upward trend was driven by a clear rotation of sector leadership throughout the year, including AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the metals sector [4][6] Group 2 - The technology sector was a major contributor to market gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.74% in Q1 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 15.25% increase during the same period [5] - Key drivers included investments in computing infrastructure, large model development, and AI applications, leading to significant valuation reassessments for companies like Alibaba [6] - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector gained momentum due to a surge in business development (BD) transactions, benefiting from improved global liquidity as the Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle [6][7] Group 3 - The metals sector emerged as the strongest performer by year-end, with copper stocks rising by 261.85%, gold and precious metals by 197.85%, and other metals and minerals by 187.91% [9][10] - The rise in metal prices was attributed to multiple favorable factors, including the global trend of "de-dollarization," supply-demand imbalances, and domestic policies optimizing supply structures [9][11] - Notable individual stock performances included Zijin Mining rising by 162% and Shandong Gold increasing by over 183% [11] Group 4 - The overall strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2025 was a result of a combination of valuation recovery, improved industry sentiment, and enhanced global liquidity [15][16] - Emerging industries such as AI, renewable energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals provided a wealth of high-growth investment opportunities, supporting long-term price increases [16] - Looking ahead to 2026, expectations remain positive for the Hong Kong market, with potential continued upward momentum driven by liquidity improvements and corporate profit recovery [16]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In December, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, marking the first return above the growth threshold since April[2][4] - The increase in the Manufacturing PMI ended a continuous contraction of 8 months, with the current level being 1.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past three years[7] - New orders index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8, while the production index rose by 1.7 percentage points, indicating a slight widening of the production-demand gap to 0.9 percentage points[8] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 percentage points to 50.2, significantly outperforming the average of 48.1 for the same period in previous years[10] - The construction sector saw a substantial rise, with the PMI increasing by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8, while the service sector PMI rose slightly to 49.7[10][11] - In December, 10 out of 20 non-manufacturing sectors were in a growth phase, an increase from the previous month, with notable performance in postal and telecommunications sectors[6][11] Economic Outlook - The economic data for December suggests a potential recovery compared to November, with Q4 growth expected to be no less than 4.5%[3] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and local debt arrangements is believed to have contributed to the recovery in production and construction activities[3] - The manufacturing output price index has risen for two consecutive months, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing competition pressures within industries[3][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded to 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range above the boom - bust line and indicating a positive signal of stabilizing and rising manufacturing prosperity [3][8]. - The supply and demand sides improved synergistically. The production index was 51.7% in December, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points. The new export order index was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points. High - tech manufacturing had strong momentum and provided structural support [3][9]. - Inventory is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and the purchase price index declined slightly. The raw material inventory index rose by 0.5 percentage points to 47.8%, and the finished - product inventory index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 48.2%. The purchase price index was 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [12][13]. - The rebound of PMI is expected to be the starting point for the rebound of the nominal GDP growth rate in 2026. With policy support, improved expectations, and the accumulation of internal momentum, the economy in 2026 is expected to start steadily [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On December 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the December PMI. The manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [2][7] 12 - month Manufacturing PMI Rebound - The December PMI of 50.1% was significantly higher than the market expectation of 49.6%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April 2025. It was a counter - seasonal rebound, and its signal and continuity are worthy of attention [3][8] Supply - Demand Synergy Improvement - In terms of production, the December production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points. In terms of demand, the new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, and the new export order index was 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points. High - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries showed strong momentum [3][9] Inventory and Purchase Price - The raw material inventory index rose to 47.8%, and the finished - product inventory index rose to 48.2%, still in the passive replenishment stage but showing marginal improvement. The purchase price index was 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points. The anti - involution policy's price - pulling effect may shift to mid - stream manufacturing [12][13] PMI Rebound and Economic Outlook - The rebound of PMI in December is expected to be the starting point for the marginal improvement of the economy in 2026. With the joint action of policies, expectations, and internal momentum, the economy in 2026 is expected to start steadily [4][15]