Group 1: Forum Overview - The 12th Fortune Forum was held in Suzhou on May 23, 2025, focusing on fixed income investment strategies in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Over 300 participants from banks, securities firms, insurance, and wealth management gathered to discuss new paths for fixed income investment [1] - The forum featured discussions on macroeconomic outlook, short-term bond strategies, and the "fixed income +" strategy [1] Group 2: Key Insights from Speakers - Zhang Yuhao highlighted that the macroeconomic performance in the first half of 2025 is expected to be good, with GDP growth likely meeting targets, while risks mainly stem from overseas factors [2] - Wu Lvzong emphasized the importance of flexibility and yield exploration in short-term bond investments, suggesting a focus on short-duration credit assets [3][4] - Li Jinliu discussed the need for a flexible duration strategy in the current uncertain market environment, balancing safety and capital gain opportunities [4] - Liu Xingwang proposed an "barbell strategy" for fixed income investments, indicating that traditional strategies may no longer meet investor yield expectations [5][6] - Wang Renzeng noted the rapid development of bond index products, emphasizing their role in optimizing asset allocation and risk diversification [7][8] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The low-interest-rate environment necessitates a shift from single-holding strategies to diversified collaborative strategies in fixed income investments [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to support the development of low-volatility and asset allocation products, which may benefit fixed income and "fixed income +" strategies [8] - As of March 31, 2025, Fortune Fund's bond investment yield over the past 12 years reached 71.87%, indicating strong performance in the industry [8]

- The report provides an overview of the major asset markets, including equities, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange markets[4][9][10][26][27][32][33][39] - The report highlights the performance of various indices in the A-share market, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others, with their respective percentage changes[9][11][12][13][15] - The report also covers the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, along with their percentage changes[10][18][19][22] - The report includes the performance of the US stock market, with indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500, along with their percentage changes[10][24][25] - The bond market section discusses the yield changes of various government and corporate bonds, including the yield spread between different maturities[26][27][28][29][30][31] - The commodities market section provides the weekly percentage changes of various commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, aluminum, and others[32][33][34][35][36][37][38] - The foreign exchange market section details the exchange rate changes of major currencies against the Chinese Yuan[39][41][42][43] - The report summarizes the newly established funds for the week, including their types, sizes, and fund managers[44][46] - The report provides an overview of the total number and scale of open-end public funds in China, categorized by different types of funds[47][48][49][50] - The performance of different types of funds over the past week, month, year, and year-to-date is compared, highlighting the best and worst performers[51][52][54][55][56][57][59]

宏观和大类资产配置周报 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布 我们将后续大类资产配置顺序调整为：股票>大宗>债券>货币 宏观要闻回顾 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 资产表现回顾 ◼ 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.06%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 2.21%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 4.67%；余额宝 7 天年化收益 率下跌 2BP 至 1.24%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 1.68%，活跃十年国债 期货本周下跌 0.53%。 资产配置建议 ◼ 4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿元，较去年同期多增 1.22 万亿元，较 3 月少增 4.73 万亿元，略低于万得一致预期的 1.26 万亿元。4 月社融存量同比增长 8.70%，较 3 月上升了 0.37 个百分点，略低于万得一致预期的 8.80%。4 月新增人民币贷款 884 亿元，较去年同期少增 2465 亿元，较 3 月少增 3.74 万亿元。去年同期社融基数较低。较去年同期多增的是政府债券、汇票、 企业债、股票融资和外币贷款，较去年同期少增的是人民币贷款、信托贷 款和委托贷款。我们认 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 16, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Global Asset Market Performance Analysis 1. Global Bond Market 1.1 10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: On May 15, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major economies showed various changes. For example, the US yield was 4.433 with a latest change of - 0.105, a one - week change of 0.053, a one - month change of 0.057, and a one - year change of - 0.025. The UK yield was 4.659 with significant one - year growth of 0.536 [3]. 1.2 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields - **US and China**: The US 2 - year Treasury bond yield on May 15, 2025, was 4.020 with a latest change of 0.040. China's 1 - year bond yield (equivalent here) was 1.436 with a latest change of 0.019 [3]. 2. Global Exchange Rate Market 2.1 Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - **Rate Fluctuations**: The exchange rate of the dollar against major emerging economies' currencies had different trends. For instance, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.683 on May 15, 2025, with a latest change of 0.79% and a one - year change of 12.05% [3]. 2.2 RMB Exchange Rates - **On - shore and Off - shore RMB**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 7.207 on May 15, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.01% and a one - year change of - 0.16%. The off - shore RMB was 7.205 with a latest change of - 0.09% and a one - year change of - 0.28% [3]. 3. Global Stock Market 3.1 Major Economies' Stock Indexes - **Performance in Different Regions**: On May 15, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 5916.930 with a latest change of 0.41% and a one - year change of 14.06%. The Hang Seng Index was 23453.160 with a latest change of - 0.79% and a one - year change of 26.92% [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **China's A - Share Market**: The closing price of A - shares was 3380.82 with a decline of 0.68%. The trading data also included information on the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500, such as their closing prices, price changes, valuations, and fund flows [5]. 4. Bond and Currency Futures Market 4.1 Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Prices and Changes**: On May 15, 2025, the closing prices of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.555, 105.790, 108.695, and 105.990 respectively, all showing slight declines [6]. 4.2 Money Market - **Funding Rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M funding rates were 1.4477%, 1.5456%, and 1.6450% respectively, with daily changes of - 9.00BP, 1.00BP, and 0.00BP [6]. 5. Credit Bond Index - **Performance of Different Bond Types**: The credit bond indexes included US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, emerging - economies investment - grade, US high - yield, euro - zone high - yield, and emerging - economies high - yield credit bond indexes, each with different latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [3][4].

（原标题：英华号周播报|从博弈到缓和，大类资产配置怎么看？） # " 当期热文 NO.1 华夏基金 关税变局再起！从博弈到缓和，大类资产配置怎么看？ NO.2 国泰基金 大咖研习社 | 国泰基金李海："新"消费为矛，"旧"消费为盾 NO.3 泉果基金 关税战背景下，理解复杂中国的当下和未来 | 泉果无限对话 （点击文章标题跳转原文，下同） # " 热转好文 NO.1 睿远基金 黄金又又又创新高 如何理解黄金投资 NO.2 德邦基金 投资风向标 | 央行连发"十箭"！利好政策频出,债市后续怎么看? NO.3 长城基金 长城固收：资金面持续宽松，相对看好信用类资产机会 # " 趣投教 NO.1： 前海开源基金 走进2025中国人形机器人生态大会 NO.2： 中国基金报 规模突破100亿元！首只百亿跨境策略ETF，同类规模第一！摩根标普港股通低波红利ETF NO.3： 财通证券资管 基金梦工厂——投入基金的钱将去往何处？ # " 热门直播 NO.1： 深圳证券交易所 信通智联引领新浪潮 ——深市公司2024年度集体业绩说明会 NO.2： 中国基金报 #投资热点说# 指数还是量化：哪个有更好的未来 NO.3： 鹏华基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation portfolios [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of equity: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.91% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.22% with a maximum drawdown of -7.97% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to April 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - As of May 2025, the report suggests a cautious approach to A-shares due to ongoing tariff impacts, recommending a "barbell strategy" focusing on stable cash flow assets and technology + domestic demand as key themes [5]. - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from a broad interest rate decline due to the central bank's monetary policy easing, with a focus on short-term securities and potential adjustments in long-term bonds [5]. - For US stocks, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies remains, with short-term fluctuations expected as the market reacts to tariff impacts on the US economy [5]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term opportunities due to easing tariffs and improving economic conditions [5]. - Indian stocks are anticipated to experience upward movement due to economic resilience and foreign capital inflows [5][6].

注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.530 105.890 108.725 106.225 涨跌（%） 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4565% 1.5499% 1.6720% 日度变化(BP) -12.00 -3.00 -3.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the insurance asset management industry achieved steady growth despite fluctuations in the equity market and declining government bond yields, with total revenue of approximately 41.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and net profit of about 18.4 billion yuan, up 18.1% [1][2][3] Revenue Summary - A total of 34 insurance asset management institutions reported their 2024 performance, with 21 institutions showing both revenue and net profit growth, while 9 institutions experienced declines in both metrics [1][2] - The top four insurance asset management companies, namely China Life Asset, Taikang Asset, China Life Investment, and Ping An Asset Management, generated revenues exceeding 4 billion yuan each, collectively accounting for over half of the industry's total revenue [1][2] - China Life Asset led the industry with a revenue of 6.702 billion yuan, followed by Taikang Asset at 6.282 billion yuan, China Life Investment at 4.233 billion yuan, and Ping An Asset Management at 4.045 billion yuan [1][2] Profit Summary - The concentration of net profit is even more pronounced, with the top four institutions (China Life Asset, Taikang Asset, Ping An Asset, and China Life Investment) achieving a combined net profit of 10.699 billion yuan, representing 60% of the industry's total [2][3] - China Life Asset reported a net profit of 3.856 billion yuan, ranking first, followed by Taikang Asset with 2.843 billion yuan, Ping An Asset with 2.451 billion yuan, and China Life Investment with 1.549 billion yuan [2][3] Growth Rate Analysis - The growth rates of revenue among leading insurance asset management institutions remained robust, with China Life Asset, China Life Investment, and Taikang Asset achieving double-digit growth rates of 27.5%, 28.22%, and 23.11% respectively [2][3] - Smaller institutions like Allianz Insurance Asset and China Post Insurance Asset reported remarkable growth rates exceeding 120% due to their lower revenue bases [2][3] Profit Growth Disparity - There is a significant disparity in net profit growth, with institutions like Guohua Xingyi, Hezhong Asset, and China Life Investment exceeding 50% growth, while about one-third of institutions reported negative growth [3] - The only institution reporting a loss was Taiping Capital, which experienced a loss of 16 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase in losses of 54.1% [3] Industry Outlook - The insurance asset management industry is expected to continue focusing on enhancing investment capabilities and expanding management scale in 2025, balancing stability and innovation [3][4] - The external and macroeconomic environment has increased volatility in major asset classes, necessitating careful asset allocation and management to align with the characteristics of insurance funds and long-term investment goals [4]

华宝基金固定收益投资总监、混合资产部总经理兼固定收益部总经理李栋梁从业多年，在他看来，需要 在2025年对大类资产进行更加科学化的配置。2025年初，李栋梁敏锐意识到，可转债市场经历的阶段性 调整使其价格中枢回落至具有性价比的位置，于是果断加仓，其在管的多只基金产品在债券行情走强时 积累了明显的收益安全垫。以李栋梁管理的二级债基华宝安宜六个月持有期债券A为例，截至2025年3 月末，该基金近一年净值增长率达7.72%，超越业绩比较基准1.49个百分点。自2022年5月基金成立以 来，其年化收益率达到3.47%。 一季度的债券市场给不少投资者"上了一课"。尤其是对于持有纯债型基金的基民们来说，相较于去年， 今年一季度债市出现多轮调整，基金的持有体验波动性加大。对基金经理而言，债市波动的加剧也对其 交易能力和行情的研判提出了更多的要求。 □本报记者魏昭宇 李栋梁在近日接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，债券市场大概率会呈现小幅震荡的走势，目前外部扰动 因素对债市形成的影响仍有待观察，需要关注后续宏观对冲政策推出的时点和力度。在操作层面，股 票、纯债、可转债等资产仍有一些投资机遇值得关注。 多变行情对交易提出更多挑战 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and technical perspectives on major asset classes, indicating a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while being bullish on bonds and gold [1][3][21]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a negative outlook for equity assets, a positive outlook for bond assets, and a negative outlook for industrial products, while gold assets are viewed positively [3][5][21]. - Specific macro indicators such as PMI, CPI, and social financing stock growth rates are analyzed to determine their impact on asset performance [6][21]. Group 2: Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend for equities, bonds, and industrial products, while gold shows an upward trend [10][11][21]. - The article employs various methods to assess asset trends, including historical price averages and specific trend indicators [7][11]. Group 3: Asset Valuation and Fund Flow - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is reported at 86.07%, indicating a low valuation level for equity assets [14][15]. - As of April 30, 2025, the net inflow for equity assets is recorded at 557 billion, suggesting a state of capital inflow [17][18]. Group 4: Performance Tracking of Asset Allocation Combinations - Historical performance data shows that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 0.05% in April 2025, with an annualized return of 11.87% since March 2006 [2][26]. - Other combinations, such as volatility control and risk parity, also demonstrated positive returns, with annualized returns of 9.33% and 9.64% respectively [26][27].