Core Insights - The recent U.S. inflation data showed a slight decline, with the overall annual inflation rate dropping to 2.3%, which was unexpected as many anticipated a rise [3] - The core inflation rate remained at 2.8%, and while there were increases in some monthly data, they were still below market expectations [3] - The ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may impact market sentiment in the coming days [1] Inflation Data Summary - The overall annual inflation rate decreased to 2.3%, contrary to expectations of a potential rise [3] - Core inflation remained stable at 2.8%, with monthly data showing increases but still falling short of market forecasts [3] - Gasoline prices significantly dropped, but rising natural gas prices offset this decline [3] Currency Pair Analysis - The EUR/USD temporarily fell below 1.12, reflecting market reactions to the U.S. inflation data and trade tensions [5] - The GBP/USD has maintained above 1.32, supported by positive economic indicators and less political turmoil compared to other countries [6][8] - The upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data releases on May 29 and 30 are expected to influence market movements significantly [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious due to the unclear long-term effects of trade tensions, despite a temporary easing of U.S.-China tensions [5][8] - The GBP/USD trading volume has not significantly decreased since early April, indicating stable market interest [8] - The upcoming U.K. inflation data, expected to show a rise to 3.3%, could significantly impact market trends [8]

美联储博斯蒂克：市场情绪回落尚未显现出来。 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent tariff reductions between China and the US have exceeded market expectations, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards defensive investments [1][9][11] - The bond market is expected to face short-term volatility, particularly in long-term bonds, due to improved market sentiment from the US-China trade talks, although long-term pressures from manufacturing PMI and export growth remain [2][10][13] - The stock market is anticipated to maintain a volatile trend with increased sector rotation, as the focus shifts from trade conditions to domestic policy support and the resilience of domestic demand [2][10][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market has recovered to levels seen in early April, but the weakening profit-making effect has led to increased profit-taking and cautious sentiment among investors [10][11] - The report suggests a barbell strategy for asset allocation, emphasizing growth sectors like technology (robotics, AI) alongside defensive sectors (banks, utilities, oil and petrochemicals) [2][10][14] - Key economic indicators such as fixed asset investment, retail sales, and industrial output are set to be released, which will be crucial for assessing the economic recovery [24]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility of gold has surged, experiencing a sharp decline followed by a sudden reversal, raising questions for retail investors about whether to chase gains or cut losses [1] Group 1 - Gold's volatility has increased significantly, indicating a turbulent market environment [1] - The market sentiment is fluctuating, leading to uncertainty among investors regarding their trading strategies [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a trader, providing insights into the current gold market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the market sentiment has improved. The steel market has returned to the fundamental logic, with the hot - rolled coil production and inventory decreasing, and the inventory of five major steel products decreasing week - on - week. The iron ore market is generally in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the long - term pattern is relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are weak due to high inventory, and the动力煤 market is under pressure with high inventory [1][3][6] Group 3: Summary by Different Products Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar was 3118 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was 3260 yuan/ton. The spot trading was generally weak, with 100,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide. Affected by increased routine maintenance, the production and inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week [1] - **Strategy**: The single - side strategy is to be volatile, focusing on the repair of the discount when the sentiment improves [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore was 736.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The spot trading was weak, with the total transaction volume of major ports at 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% compared with the previous day. The long - term spot transaction volume was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 23.53%. The iron - making water production reached its peak and then declined, with the daily average of 247 steel mills at 2.4477 million tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons [3] - **Strategy**: The single - side strategy is to be volatile, focusing on the repair of the discount when the sentiment improves [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. The inventory of imported Mongolian coal at the port increased. The supply of coke was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The supply of coking coal increased, and the market was pessimistic, with high - level inventory remaining stable [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The decline of port coal prices slowed down, and the pit - mouth coal prices fluctuated weakly. The inventory at the port continued to accumulate, and the import market was weak. The demand for coal prices lacked support in the short term, and the supply pattern remained loose in the long term [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，钢材期价低位回升，但鉴于需求面临季节性走弱， 高供应下需求转弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位以及情绪偏 暖，短期走势延续震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局尚可，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 专业研究·创造价值 1 / ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views - The improvement of tariff policies has led to positive market sentiment, with glass, soda ash, and ferrous alloys showing rebounds [1][3] - Glass and soda ash markets face challenges in supply - demand balance, while ferrous alloys are affected by factors such as tariff policies, industry profits, and raw material costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Product Glass - Market: The glass futures market showed a strong - side oscillation, while the spot market had general transactions with manufacturers offering discounts [1] - Supply - demand: Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real estate and deep - processing industries, inventory has increased significantly, and prices lack upward momentum. Enterprises may be more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory during the high - temperature and rainy season [1] Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash futures market oscillated upwards with a significant increase in trading volume, and the spot market was stable with flexible transaction prices [1] - Supply - demand: Soda ash production has declined due to increased alkali plant maintenance but remains in a loose state. The growth of photovoltaic demand has slowed down, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large [1] Silicomanganese - Market: After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the US, the market sentiment improved, and the silicomanganese futures rebounded slightly. The spot market was fair, with some factories reducing production for maintenance. The northern market price was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern market price was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Silicomanganese production has continued to decline due to industry profits and is at a low level over the years. Iron - making water production remains high, providing demand resilience. High inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices, but low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs [3] Ferrosilicon - Market: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded slightly following the black - metal sector, while the spot market was weak with cautious operations. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production area was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - demand: Ferrosilicon production remains at a medium - low level due to corporate losses. High iron - making water production maintains demand resilience, and factory inventories are continuously decreasing, while downstream enterprise inventories are low. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs [3]

美联储戴利：市场情绪受到冲击，但尚未反映在消费者和企业的整体支出大幅回落中，不确定性并未抑 制经济活动，但如果不确定性持续存在，可能会对经济产生影响。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in navigating the fluctuations of the dollar index, likening it to a dynamic ECG that reveals hidden signals in the market [1] - It highlights the effectiveness of trend lines and moving averages in predicting currency movements, particularly during significant market events like the European energy crisis [3] - The article discusses the value of combining technical indicators to enhance predictive capabilities, especially when aligned with fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events [5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The dollar index's K-line chart serves as a crucial tool for traders to identify key resistance levels and predict strong market trends [1] - The formation of higher peaks and troughs in the dollar index indicates the establishment of an upward channel, particularly noted during the 2022 European energy crisis [3] - The combination of technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, provides insights into market momentum and trend strength, with specific examples from the dollar/yen exchange rate [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historical price levels often self-validate, as seen when the dollar/euro exchange rate rebounded after hitting a support level [3] - The emergence of specific price patterns, like the head and shoulders bottom, signals potential trend reversals, while prolonged consolidation phases can lead to significant price movements [3] - Market sentiment, indicated by the VIX index, can create trading opportunities when it inversely correlates with the dollar index [3] Group 3: Investment Tools - Doo Financial offers a multi-dimensional analysis framework and real-time monitoring systems to help investors navigate the complexities of the market [5] - The integration of technical signals with fundamental developments is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing environment [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite significant positive news, the A-share market experienced a high open followed by a decline, indicating a misunderstanding of the market's reaction to the news [1][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 6% at its peak, and the FTSE A50 also saw a rapid increase, but these movements were more about market sentiment rather than substantial changes in policy [2][3] - The ChiNext Index opened 1.29% higher but quickly fell, closing in the red, indicating a technical resistance at the 60-day moving average level [3][5] Group 2 - The high open followed by a decline is attributed to a technical coincidence and market psychology, where traders anticipated a high open followed by a drop due to the technical pressure zone [5][6] - The securities index also mirrored this behavior, opening 0.7% higher before declining, suggesting that both indices faced similar technical resistance at the 60-day moving average [6][7] - The conclusion drawn is that the lack of impact from the positive news is not due to the news itself but rather the market's technical pressure and the need for consolidation [6][7]