金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 技术解盘-股指期货 纸浆期货暴涨原因与后市展望？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从原因上看，多因素共同推动。全球经济复苏态势向好，各行业生产活动愈发活跃，像电商行业迅 猛发展，对包装用纸需求激增，促使纸浆需求量大幅攀升 。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 而在供应端，却状况频出。一些主要纸浆生产地区遭受自然灾害，如加拿大因山火影响，2025年针 叶浆产量减少80万吨，导致纸浆产量下降。同时，环保政策趋严，部分小型纸浆生产企业面临停产 或整顿，进一步加剧供应紧张。另外，国际贸易形势的变化、运输成本增加以及能源价格上涨，也 都对纸浆期货价格上涨起到了推动作用。 这一暴涨对相关行业影响显著。造纸企业成本大幅增加，利润空间被严重压缩，中小企 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices increased by $3, while other metals showed mixed performance with declines in aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin, while nickel saw a significant rise [1] Group 1: LME Metal Prices - LME copper closed up $3, reaching $9,568 per ton [1] - LME aluminum fell by $18, settling at $2,450 per ton [1] - LME zinc decreased by $12, ending at $2,676 per ton [1] - LME lead dropped by $20, closing at $1,963 per ton [1] - LME nickel rose by $365, reaching $15,376 per ton [1] - LME tin declined by $400, closing at $31,236 per ton [1] - LME cobalt remained unchanged at $33,700 per ton [1]

有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 镍价触底回升，空头了结意愿强 核心观点 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 5 月 29 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 沪铜 今日铜价早盘高开，日内整体呈现增仓上行趋势，主力期价站上 7.8 万关口。宏观层面，今日盘面氛围较好，有色普遍上行；美元指 数早盘冲高回落，利好铜价。产业层面，本周四社库小幅下降，利 好铜价。29 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.93 万吨，较上周下降 0.44 万吨。短期，期价增仓上行，预计维持强势运行，期权可关注认沽 虚值卖方。 沪铝 今日铝价早盘高开，日内维持强势运行，持仓量小幅上升，主力 期价站上 2.02 ...

棕油上涨、花生大涨 一、农产品板块综述 油脂强势走高,棕油领涨,因马棕油产量增幅放缓,而出口增幅 扩大,支撑棕油期价走高,继续关注后续产地产量变化。豆油先跌后 涨,受到棕榈油强势带动而缩减跌幅,但进口大豆到港集中,油厂开 机率上市,豆油供应增加,豆油期价承压,后续仍有走跌压力。花生 暴涨,受到油脂板块强势的带动,加之花生贸易商惜售以及进口花生 米偏低等因素支撑花生期价大幅上涨,创近半年新高,后续料将偏强 运行。玉米走势企稳,产区余粮见底以及港口库存下降支撑玉米期价 逐渐回稳有升。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 棕櫚油: 大幅上扬 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约继续大涨,受到马棕榈油增产 放缓以及出口强劲的提振: 1.高频数据显示,马来西亚 5 月 1-25 日标搁油出口环比增幅在 7%-11%之间,而同期产量环比增幅在 0.73%,产量增幅不及出口增 幅,给市场注入偏多影响,因印度当前棕榈油库存偏低,有阶段性补 库需求,提振马棕榈油出口。 2.国内豆棕现货价差倒挂加深,棕榈油现货交投冷清,棕榈油消 费偏弱。大连棕榈油主力 2509 合约强劲上扬,站上 40 日均线,MACD 红柱放大,技术强势。策略上轻仓多 ...

Group 1 - On May 28, industrial products faced significant selling pressure, with rubber futures leading the decline, particularly natural rubber and 20 rubber, which fell over 4% [2] - The natural rubber futures contract for 2509 dropped to 13,725 yuan/ton, marking a 2.2% decrease and reaching a one-year low [2] - The decline in rubber futures is attributed to a combination of external trade environment and seasonal off-peak demand, as Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries enter the seasonal tapping period, increasing raw material supply [2] Group 2 - From January 2 to May 28, the main rubber futures contract 2509 has seen a cumulative decline of 22% [3] - The drop in rubber prices is linked to weakened demand expectations for the year, particularly following increased tariff disturbances since April, leading to a decrease in operating rates at downstream tire factories [3] - In May, the average operating load for domestic all-steel tires was 57.3%, down 7.85% from April, while semi-steel tires averaged 71.1%, down 8.11% from April [3] Group 3 - The period from February to May is typically a low production phase for rubber trees, with production expected to rise after this period, continuing until September [4] - Despite the decline in rubber futures prices, downstream tire manufacturers maintain a cautious purchasing attitude, influenced by high basis prices for Thai mixed rubber, making natural rubber less cost-effective [4] - There is a steady growth in demand for replacement tires as temperatures rise, although overall demand growth remains slow, leading to increased finished product inventory at tire manufacturers [5] Group 4 - The global production of natural rubber is projected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons in 2025, with Thailand expected to see a 1.2% increase and Indonesia a 9.8% decrease [6] - The global natural rubber production saw a seasonal reduction in April, with a total output of 7.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7% [6] - Domestic natural rubber production from January to April showed a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, with various regions entering a seasonal production increase phase [7] Group 5 - The impact of tariff policies on downstream tire and automotive international trade has led to a decline in exports of tires from China to the U.S., with all-steel tire exports down 5.43% month-on-month in April [8] - High inventory levels at tire manufacturers are noted, with average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tires increasing by 15.65% year-on-year [8] - The overall supply-demand balance is expected to remain loose, with rubber prices likely to continue a weak trend, supported at around 13,000 yuan/ton [9] Group 6 - The basic supply-demand dynamics suggest that natural rubber may experience a supply increase, while high inventory levels at tire manufacturers and slow terminal demand growth hinder upward price transmission [9] - The price of synthetic rubber is also expected to be influenced by the decline in natural rubber prices, with a generally loose supply-demand situation [9] - The current average monthly price of natural rubber is on par with the same period last year, with expectations of continued weak performance until the end of the year [9]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for soda ash is showing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1228.00 CNY/ton and experiencing a decline of approximately 2.42% [1] - The supply side of soda ash remains ample despite new installations, influenced by previous maintenance schedules and summer repairs, leading to inventory pressure [1][2] - Major domestic installations' maintenance has not significantly improved the weak soda ash market, with cautious purchasing behavior observed in the glass market [1] Group 2 - The overall inventory of soda ash remains high despite ongoing destocking efforts, with limited maintenance plans in June leading to a potential rebound in supply [2] - The cost side has not stabilized, contributing to continued pressure on soda ash prices, which are expected to remain under high pressure [2]

◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，10 合约基差 140（+4）。基本面方面，上周螺纹 钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而当 下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现，同时原 料价格下跌，钢材成本中枢下移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货 价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价 格震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 铁矿石 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/5/28 周二，铁矿石盘面弱势运行，主要受出口热度下降和煤炭阴跌影响。现 货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 733 元/湿吨（-7）。普氏 62%指数 96.45 美元/ 吨（-1.2），月均 99.50 美元/吨。PBF 基差 76 元/吨（-1）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,729.10 万吨，环+23。45 港口+2 ...

马棕油期价连续三日上涨，出口数据强劲，但库存增加的阴影仍在，未来走势如何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

与此同时，徐艺丹表示，热卷抢出口表现不及预期，家电等制造业出口亦面临淡季转弱风险。而受供应宽松影 响，近期原料焦煤价格持续下跌，叠加铁水产量高位回落，螺纹钢成本端下行压力显著。后续制造业及建材需求 均进入淡季，焦煤供需压力持续凸显，铁矿价格亦面临回调压力。 华夏时报记者叶青北京报道 5月26日，国内大宗商品延续下跌，集运指数期货跌近6%，焦煤、螺纹、碳酸锂等品种再度刷新阶段新低。其中 螺纹钢期货2510合约低开低走，盘中一度下探至2996元/吨，创近9个月新低。受此影响，螺纹钢期货2510合约持 仓以空头增仓为主，净空单增仓6.44万手，部分机构空单增持明显。 "由于近期进入政策观察期，暂无新的利多支撑。与此同时，黑色产业链上游，焦煤、焦炭期货持续下跌，导致期 价重心进一步下移。此外，下游需求疲弱，现货出货乏力，进一步压制市场。因此，短期内，螺纹钢期货价格仍 有下行压力。"一德期货黑色金属分析师马琳接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 下游需求弱于预期 据了解，今年年初至今，螺纹钢期货价格跌幅达9.93%。广发期货分析师徐艺丹接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表 示，近期螺纹钢价格持续下行，受多方面因素影响，市场需求面临 ...

布伦特7月原油期货收报64.74美元。 ...