Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View Recently, there are many restarted plants, resulting in a slight increase in supply. However, the demand side is more cautious, and the procurement intensity has slowed down. The demand of downstream factories remains in the off - season, with a low operating rate, and the restocking intensity may remain weak. Secondly, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the supply has gradually returned. Inventory accumulation is expected next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 78.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; PE weekly output is 61.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. 2. Demand - PE downstream weighted operating rate shows a seasonal decline, with a downstream weighted operating rate of 38.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [9]. 3. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 50.29 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; social inventory is 55.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06% [9]. 4. Upstream and Cost - No specific summary data about upstream and cost are provided other than some related charts about ethylene production and downstream operating rate. 5. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 7412 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 3.25% month - on - month to 7456 yuan/ton [9]. 6. Basis and Spread - The basis is - 43; the (9 - 1) spread is - 48 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New cotton listing, domestic cotton inventory shortage will support cotton prices, but high - cost old cotton may enter the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is a high - yield expectation for the far - month, so the upside of cotton prices is limited [4] - Pay attention to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, off - season cotton inventory reduction speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market 3.1.1 Supply - As of July 17, the national new cotton sales rate was 95.8%, up 8.3 percentage points year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1] 3.1.2 Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1] 3.1.3 Demand - In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase from the previous month and a 3.10% increase year - on - year; textile and clothing export volume was 27.315 billion US dollars, a 4.22% increase from the previous month and a 0.13% decrease year - on - year [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, including 2.5424 million tons of commercial inventory (a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June) and 882,100 tons of industrial inventory (a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June) [1] 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Supply - As of July 20, the cotton budding rate in the US was 71%, 8% behind the same period last year and 4% behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7% behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the overall excellent rate of cotton plants was 57%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 4 percentage points higher year - on - year [1] 3.2.2 US Demand - From July 11 - 17, the net signing of US 24/25 annual upland cotton was - 7,416 tons, a significant decrease compared with last week and the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 41,912 tons, an 18% increase from the previous month and a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average; the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,247 tons, and the shipment was 1,134 tons; the signing of new - season upland cotton was 30,073 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 3,946 tons [1] 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Supply - As of July 18, the new - season cotton sown area in India was 9.86 million hectares, a decrease of about 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2.4 Southeast Asian Demand - In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, a 9.45% increase from the previous month and a 13.86% increase year - on - year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease year - on - year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a 13.30% decrease from the previous month and a 1.23% increase year - on - year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Trends and Expectations - Last week, domestic cotton prices were strong, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened significantly. This week, some long - positions shifted, the near - month contract fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month contract was strong, with the spread quickly repaired [4] - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak boll - forming period. Although pests are more severe than last year, they are generally controllable, and the overall development progress is fast with good growth. The temperature in Xinjiang may drop next week, and the new - season output is still expected to be optimistic [4] - Mainland spinning mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, but Xinjiang spinning mills have a high operating rate, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Recently, the downstream finished product inventory has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure [4] - As of the week of July 19, Brazil's cotton picking progress was about 16.7%, with faster progress in Bahia. The Brazilian industry association expects the new - season cotton output to increase by 7% year - on - year to 3.96 million tons [4] - India's overall cotton planting progress is behind schedule, and the monsoon rainfall in central and north - western India is significantly higher than the historical average. Attention should be paid to possible pest impacts under heavy rainfall [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the soybean and peanut industries are neutral [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Soybean**: The soybean futures showed wide - range fluctuations, and the downstream market's willingness to purchase was weak, resulting in inactive spot trading. The price remained stable. The demand for soy products decreased in summer, and there was no weather - induced production reduction in the soybean - producing areas [1] - **Peanut**: The peanut futures main contract fluctuated within a narrow range. The demand was weak, the supply quality was uneven, and the spot supply - demand was in a stalemate. As the new peanut season approached, the stalling situation continued, with some sellers reducing prices to lock in profits, while buyers were cautious. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2] 3. Summary by Related Content **Soybean Market** - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4224.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan/ton (0.17%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 76, down 7 (32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: Northeast traders' mentality was stable, and some areas' inventories were running out. The prices of standard - grade first - class soybean with 39% protein in Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] **Peanut Market** - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8130.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.23%) compared to the previous period. The spot basis was PK10 + 70.00, up 12.00 (20.69%) from the previous period [2] - **Market Information**: The peanut spot price in the domestic market was stable with a downward trend. The demand was weak, and the supply - demand was in a stalemate. The rain in Henan was short - lived, and the drought in the south persisted [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA weekly operation remains stable, polyester load declines, inventory accumulates slightly, basis rebounds after the weakening of liquidity shock, and spot processing fees are slightly repaired. TA enters the inventory accumulation stage, but the absolute inventory level is not high. There are opportunities to expand the far - month processing fees at low prices. PX's overall de - stocking trend remains, and the lower limit of valuation is guaranteed [2] - For MEG, the near - term unexpected domestic reduction increases, overseas Saudi devices stop again, and port inventory is expected to decline. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, and the far - month valuation will rise. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term production reduction leads to a decline in operation rate, sales are slightly weaker, and inventory is de - stocked. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3] - For styrene, no clear overall view is provided, but data on raw materials, products, and profits are presented Summary by Product PTA - **Data Changes**: From July 17 to July 23, crude oil decreased by 0.1, PTA internal - market spot price increased by 65, and PTA processing fee increased by 49 [2] - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA operation is stable, polyester load declines, inventory accumulates slightly, basis rebounds, and spot processing fees are slightly repaired. PX domestic operation declines slightly, overseas load rises, and PXN strengthens slightly [2] - **Outlook**: TA enters the inventory accumulation stage, but the absolute inventory level is not high. The slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Spot processing fees are at a low level, and polyester operation is expected to stabilize. Pay attention to opportunities to expand far - month processing fees at low prices. PX's overall de - stocking trend remains, and the lower limit of valuation is guaranteed [2] MEG - **Data Changes**: From July 17 to July 23, MEG external - market price increased by 1, MEG internal - market price increased by 11, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 11 [3] - **Market Situation**: Near - term unexpected domestic reduction increases, overseas Saudi devices stop again, port inventory is expected to decline, downstream inventory levels decline, basis weakens after the repair of the monthly structure, and the benefit ratio expands [3] - **Outlook**: The supply - side unexpected reduction reduces the inventory accumulation amplitude. The current good situation is expected to be maintained in the short term, the far - month valuation will rise, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the restart progress of satellite and Saudi devices [3] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From July 17 to July 23, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 10, and short - fiber profit decreased by 24 [3] - **Market Situation**: Near - term production reduction leads to a decline in the operation rate to 89.5%, sales are slightly weaker, and inventory is de - stocked. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn continues to decline, raw material inventory increases slightly, and finished - product inventory accumulates [3] - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, the supply of standard products has no obvious reduction or increase. Domestic demand is weak, and export growth is high. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and it is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts [3] Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From July 17 to July 23, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber is 45, and the weekly change of Shanghai full - latex is 560 [3] - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3] - **Outlook**: The strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - **Data Changes**: From July 17 to July 23, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 13, and the domestic profit of styrene increased by 60 [3] - **Market Situation**: Data on raw materials, products, and profits are presented, but no clear overall market situation description is provided [3] - **Outlook**: Not provided

农产品日报 | 2025-07-24 早熟果价高于同期，红枣销区少量到货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7956元/吨，较前一日变动+27元/吨，幅度+0.34%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-56，较前一日变动-27；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1644，较前一日变动-27。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情整体偏稳运行，库存旧季货源交易氛围一般，西部产区货源剩余不多，部分冷库对 水烂点货源存急售心理，现货商发自存货源为主，早熟果纸袋秦阳陆续上市交易。山东产区客商拿货仍显谨慎， 多挑拣拿货。剩余货源结构多以中大果居多，走货不快。销区市场需求不佳，近期南方销区台风多雨天气，走货 不快。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果 农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5- ...

2025.07.21-07.25 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货市场整体呈现震荡走势。从现货市场来看，国内纯碱 行业供需格局偏弱，整体开工率仍维持在84.10%左右，行业产能利 用率较高，预计未来市场供应增加。库存方面持续累积，反映出当 前市场供过于求的压力仍在。需求端，光伏玻璃行业"反内卷"政 策持续推进，日熔量下降，对纯碱需求形成拖累；而轻碱需求虽略 有改善，但整体交投仍以刚需为主，市场活跃度不高。综合来看， 纯碱行业面临高库存、弱需求的挑战。预计未来保持稳中震荡运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 上周纯碱期货震荡。现货市场供需偏弱，开工率 84.10%，供 应预计增加，库存累积显供过于求。需求端，光伏玻璃日熔 量降拖累需求，轻碱需求略改善但交投以刚需为主。行业面 临高库存、弱需求，预计稳中震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1150-1300。可考虑观望。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly rated - Styrene: Not explicitly rated - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): Not explicitly rated - Chlor - alkali (PVC, Liquid Caustic Soda): PVC ☆☆☆, Liquid Caustic Soda not explicitly rated [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated Report's Core View - The overall performance of the chemical futures market is complex, with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - environment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract has narrow - range fluctuations. Import arrivals increase, coastal MTO device operation declines slightly, and ports are accumulating inventory. The inland - to - coastal arbitrage window closes. Short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The futures price drops. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and compound fertilizer production enterprise operation declines. Upstream inventory transfers to downstream and ports, and there are rumors of new export quota expectations [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. For polyethylene, device maintenance decreases, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, device maintenance intensity weakens, and supply is expected to increase slightly. The overall supply - demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil price decline weakens cost support. Spot prices fall slightly, and ports continue to accumulate inventory. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late period, but pressure in the fourth quarter. Suggest differential trading [5] Styrene - The futures price drops. The cost - end crude oil market has a complex situation, and supply is sufficient while demand is weak [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices decline due to oil price drops. PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens. PTA has a repair drive. Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term. Short fiber is bullish, and bottle chip orders are weak [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices weaken, with new device production and inventory accumulation. Liquid caustic soda prices rise, with cost support and inventory decline [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices drop due to low market expectations. Cost increases, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is affected by macro - environment and supply pressure [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term LLDPE supply - demand remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7185 yuan/ton. In July, PE maintenance devices are numerous, with production and capacity utilization expected to decline. New devices from ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation in the medium - long term, potentially increasing industry supply pressure. The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline slightly. Recently, international oil prices have fallen due to concerns about US high - tariff impact on demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 7221, down 63; 1 - month contract is 7239, down 49; 5 - month contract is 7214, down 44; 9 - month contract is 7221, down 63. Volume is 307,485 hands, down 402; open interest is 433,865 hands, up 12,529. 1 - 5 month contract spread is 25, down 5. Futures top 20 long positions are 358,085 hands, up 5,953; short positions are 407,891 hands, up 17,427; net long positions are - 49,806 hands, down 11,474 [2] 现货市场 - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China is 7,230 yuan/ton, down 30; in East China is 7,332.2 yuan/ton, down 22.2. The basis is 9, up 33 [2] 上游情况 - FOB: middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.36 dollars/barrel, up 1.44; CFR: middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597 dollars/ton, up 12.75. Ethylene CFR Southeast Asia middle price is 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; ethylene CFR Northeast Asia middle price is 821 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 [2] 期权市场 - 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.88%, up 0.32; 40 - day historical volatility is 12.55%, up 0.2. At - the - money put option implied volatility is 13.01%, up 0.84; at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13%, up 0.83 [2] 行业消息 - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene production was 605,900 tons, down 2.10% week - on - week; capacity utilization was 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products was down 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 9th, L2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 7,221 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of last - week's shutdown devices increased, with PE production down 2.10% to 605,900 tons, capacity utilization down 1.67% to 77.79%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PE downstream products was down 0.18% week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 493,100 tons, up 12.48% from the previous period; the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8570 - 8820. The supply-side production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased [6][7]. - The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41085 - 42445. The supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to adjust in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and cost support remains stable [11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. The main bearish factor is the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase from the previous week. The polysilicon inventory is at a low level, the silicone inventory is at a high level, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 grade is 3189 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On July 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 55 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; the main port inventory was 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [10][11]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,450 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis**: On July 14, the price of N - type polysilicon was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4055 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: Various contract prices of industrial silicon futures have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of some contracts has changed. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China have also changed to varying degrees [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory of industrial silicon have decreased to varying degrees [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions have changed. The production of some regions has increased, while that of others has decreased [17]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of industrial silicon production in different regions and grades have changed. Some regions are in a loss - making state, and the profit margins of some products have changed [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Cost**: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products have changed to varying degrees, and the industry average cost remains stable [19]. - **Inventory and Production**: The polysilicon inventory has increased, and the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees [19]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows that the supply exceeds the demand in some months [62].