Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Core View - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Although a lithium salt plant announced its复产, it was within the plan and had limited short - term impact on market supply. The demand side still has certain rigid procurement support. When the futures price drops and the futures discount is large, one can consider buying for hedging [1][3] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 85,660 yuan/ton and closed at 80,980 yuan/ton, a - 8.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day's 414,097 lots. The current basis was 4,720 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,4045 lots, a change of 430 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,400 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,800 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton, a - 80 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1] - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 13,800 tons, a 21.8% month - on - month and 42.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 131,600 tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [2] - In July 2025, China's spodumene imports were 750,700 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 4,246,000 tons [2] Strategy - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Jiangte Motor announced that its subsidiary Yinli will resume production next week, which is a normal maintenance resumption with expected low output in the near future. Recently, the impact of mine disturbances and capital sentiment on lithium carbonate is significant, with high market volatility and active speculative funds. When the futures discount is large after the price drop, one can consider buying for hedging [3] Risks - Consumption end fails to meet expectations; Mine end disturbances exceed expectations; Macroeconomic sentiment and open - interest changes have an impact [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the asphalt market is in a state of weak oscillation with a decline in cracking spread. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 0, suggesting a neutral market outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased during the night session, with declines of -0.43% and -0.41% respectively. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 4,236 hands, while that of BU2510 increased by 4,045 hands. The open interest of both contracts decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions were 3,530 yuan/ton and 3,720 yuan/ton respectively. The Shandong wholesale price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Yangtze River Delta price remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Indicators**: The refinery operating rate decreased by 2.86% to 35.61%, while the refinery inventory rate remained stable at 25.79%. The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Market Information - **Production Plan**: In September 2025, the domestic asphalt output plan of local refineries is 155.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.5 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 46.7 tons (42.9%) [16]. - **Shipment Volume**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 39.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the East China region [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is complex, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The basis is - 1075 with a spot price of 14,600, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventory has increased recently, while Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [14][17]. - The import volume has rebounded [20]. - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, but tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. - The basis weakened on August 20 [35]. Fundamentals Data - Bullish factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors are increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Basis - The basis on August 20 was - 1075 and it weakened on that day [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) declined on August 20 [8]. Inventory - Exchange inventory has increased recently, and Qingdao area inventory has had small changes [14][17]. Import - The import volume has rebounded [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production has reached a new high for the same period, and tire industry exports have declined [23][26][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Bearish factors: increasing supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with stable demand, loose spot supply, and a possible slight accumulation of inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the proportion of molten aluminum. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and the recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,535 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 70 yuan, up 25 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 6,671 hands to 228,028 hands. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,567.50 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, up 1,105 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.06 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 1 yuan, unchanged. The main contract position of alumina decreased by 15,924 hands to 176,803 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, down 20 yuan. The main contract position of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 23 hands to 7,889 hands [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 15 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 10 yuan, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 3.59 US dollars/ton, down 3.54 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 58 yuan, down 32 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 275 yuan, down 435 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production**: The alumina production in the current month was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume was 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons [2]. - **Alumina Trade**: The export volume of alumina in the current month was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons; the export volume was 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 54.70 million tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - **Aluminum Product Production**: The output of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, up 5 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - **Aluminum - related Product Production**: The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons; the output of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Index**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 5.61%, down 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.30%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 8.86%, down 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.10, down 0.0489 [2]. Industry News - **Tax Revenue**: From January to July, the tax revenue of equipment manufacturing, modern service industries, etc. performed well. The tax revenue of equipment manufacturing industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer and communication equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment increased by 33%, 10.1%, and 8% respectively. The tax revenue of scientific research and technology service industries increased by 12.7%, and that of culture, sports and entertainment industries increased by 4.1% [2]. - **Consumption Policy**: The national consumer goods trade - in work promotion video conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily and implement consumption - promotion incremental policies [2]. - **Sovereign Rating**: S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign rating with a stable outlook [2]. - **Subsidy Policy**: Heilongjiang adjusted the consumer goods trade - in subsidy policy. From August 23, car replacement will be subsidized in three levels [2]. - **Budget Revenue and Expenditure**: In July, the national general public budget revenue was 202.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to July, the cumulative increase turned positive for the first time. The national general public budget expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology called on the photovoltaic industry to regulate competition order and promote healthy development [2]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [2].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a decline, particularly in lithium carbonate, which hit the limit down, while short-selling investors profited significantly [1] - The importance of an excellent futures information and market analysis software is emphasized for investors to make informed decisions and strategies [1] Group 2 - Recommended futures information and market analysis software includes: - Sina Finance APP, which provides real-time data, technical analysis tools, and community features for investor insights [3] - Tonghuashun Futures, offering real-time data, trading, and analysis tools, suitable for both novice and experienced investors [4] - Wenhua Finance, known for its stable system and accurate data, providing advanced technical analysis tools and strategy development features [6] - Boyi Master, supporting real-time data for various markets and enabling comprehensive market monitoring [7] - Dongfang Caifu Futures, integrating community features with trading capabilities, providing a user-friendly interface [8] - Kuaiqi APP, offering a convenient and stable trading experience with 24/7 access [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish trend continues [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices trend downward. Buy put options [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost-side drags, upward momentum is insufficient. Take profit on long positions [1][7][8] - L: Market sentiment weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait for dips to go long [1][11][15] - PP: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see [1][18][22] - PVC: Market sentiment turns weak, inventory accumulates. Hold short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Supply-demand tight balance eases, oil prices oscillate weakly. Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply-demand tight balance, oil prices oscillate weakly. Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long at lows [1][35][37] - MEG: Supply-demand is slightly loose, inventory is low. Hold short positions cautiously and look for low-buying opportunities [2][39][41] - Methanol: Negative factors may be exhausted. Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low-buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but the fertilizer export window to India opens. Hold 01 long positions and sell put options [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Cost-side drags and demand declines. Lightly short [2][52][54] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait and see in the short term [2][56][57] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, WTI dropped 1.48%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.02% [3] - **Basic Logic**: After the US-Russia talks, geopolitical conflicts tend to ease. The support of the peak season for oil prices gradually decreases, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices gradually rises. Oil prices still have room to compress, and there is a probability of being pressed to around $60 in the medium and long term [4] - **Fundamentals**: From January to July this year, Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to the lowest level since September 2023. As of the week of August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break-even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of [470 - 490] for SC [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 19, the PG main contract closed at 4314 yuan/ton, up 0.14% month-on-month [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost-side oil price is weak, and the fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the supply and demand have improved. The cost side is the main drag, and the upward momentum is weak [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. The ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. The trend mainly follows the oil price. Take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [9] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.4% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 379 lots [11][12][13] - **Industry News**: In the short term, the cost support of PE weakens, the supply pressure eases, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is expected that the polyethylene price will run strongly, with an increase of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: Demand recovers slowly, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The parking ratio increases, the LL import profit margin decreases, and the production is expected to decline. The peak season for shed films is coming, and the demand support is strengthening. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Wait for dips to go long. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [1][15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for dips to go long [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 1180 lots [18][19][20] - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by bearish sentiment. However, the cost side still has support, and the macro - policy is favorable. It is expected that the market will oscillate bearishly around 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton in the short term [21] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream maintenance intensity declines, the export profit margin remains negative, and the demand starts slowly. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7100] for PP [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and go long on dips [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 5001 yuan/ton, down 1.0% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 134 lots [25][26][27] - **Industry News**: Some enterprises' devices are shut down, and India issued an anti - dumping tax on PVC imports. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market will continue to run weakly. It is expected that the spot price of calcium carbide - type five in East China will be in the range of 4700 - 4850 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment turns weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. Social inventories have accumulated for 8 consecutive weeks. Multiple sets of devices are planned to be overhauled this week, and the weekly output is expected to decline. In August, new production capacity will be released, and the internal and external demand is in the off - season. The export is disturbed by policies, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industrial chain still exists. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [29] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads. The demand side is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PX inventory is still high. The PXN is not low. The oil price oscillates weakly. Cautiously bearish [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6790] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, the supply - side device maintenance intensity increases, and the start - up load decreases. The demand side is stable, and the start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving stops falling and rebounds. The supply - demand tight balance in August is expected to ease. The TA processing fee is low, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at lows [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long on TA at lows. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4750] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices are slightly increasing their loads, and the expected arrival volume increases, with the total supply increasing. The start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is expected to rebound. The supply and demand in August are slightly loose, and the oil price trend is downward. However, the ethylene glycol inventory is low, supporting the price. In the short term, it oscillates weakly, but the downward space may be limited [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4380 - 4430] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [43][44] - **Basic Logic**: The previously overhauled domestic devices have recovered, and the overseas methanol device load is at a high level, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is accumulating. The negative factors may be exhausted [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low - buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of [2385 - 2415] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: The urea device maintenance is low this week, and the start - up load is expected to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is good. The cost side has support. In the short term, the domestic urea fundamentals are still loose, but the price fluctuates within a range under the export quota system and the "peak - shaving and summer - ensuring" policy. The market speculates on the expectation of fertilizer/urea exports to India [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [1790 - 1835] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 19, the BU main contract closed at 3453 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month [52][53] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase and trends weakly. The asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The asphalt profit is okay, and the cracking spread is at a high level. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the long - term asphalt price is under pressure due to the typhoon in the south [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, with a high valuation. As OPEC gradually increases production, the raw material side is relatively sufficient. The asphalt is bearish in the medium and long term. Lightly short. Pay attention to the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL01 closing price was 6404 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day. The warehouse receipts increased by 197 lots [56][57] - **Industry News**: The PDH device has restarted, and the regional circulation has increased, but the enterprise inventory is low. The downstream restocking is okay. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase after the restart of some PDH devices, but the demand is also expected to increase due to the recovery of some PP devices. The price may oscillate within a range [59] - **Basic Logic**: Both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream supply is abundant, and the PDH cost support weakens. The downstream is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm. The short - term market sentiment is weak. Wait and see [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Main topic: Pig market analysis, waiting for the end - of - month spot verification [1] Group 2: Analysts - Zhou Xiaoqiu, investment consulting qualification number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com [2] - Wu Hao, investment consulting qualification number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot prices - Henan spot price: 13,880 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 13,550 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] - Guangdong spot price: 14,990 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] Futures prices - Pig 2509: 13,780 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 140 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511: 13,900 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 80 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601: 14,200 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Trading volume and open interest - Pig 2509: trading volume 3,384 lots, down 4,450 lots from the previous day; open interest 13,091 lots, down 1,000 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2511: trading volume 20,770 lots, down 14,938 lots from the previous day; open interest 67,934 lots, down 3,259 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2601: trading volume 7,300 lots, down 5,823 lots from the previous day; open interest 47,359 lots, down 424 lots from the previous day [3] Price spreads - Pig 2509 basis: 100 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511 basis: - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601 basis: - 320 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 9 - 11 spread: - 120 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 11 - 1 spread: - 300 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive pressure on inventory, demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. Recent daily transactions were poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. Weekend spot performance was again below expectations, and there was a sentiment of panic selling [5] - The September contract was still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, which increased the industry's willingness to deliver, and the premium - narrowing market continued [5] - The sentiment of purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center, and profit - taking and stop - loss should be noted [5] - The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level was 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Not provided. - **Related Information**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - **Related Information**: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - **Important Information**: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - **Important Information**: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - **Important Information**: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].