| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，矿价承压运行 | 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗再度回落，且钢厂盈利状况改善有限， 淡季钢市矛盾也在累积，需求弱势格局延续，相对利好的则是节前钢厂补库。与此同时，国内港口到 货高位回落，而矿商发运持续减量，按船期推算后续到货也将回落，内矿供应虽有所恢复，矿石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction of re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. Technically, futures prices face pressure after a short - term downward breakthrough. For the iron ore sector, the improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in iron ore demand and supply is limited. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, rebar apparent demand rebounded significantly, and the apparent demand of five major steel products rebounded while inventory decreased and production remained basically unchanged. The improvement in apparent demand may be due to year - end rush construction and may not be sustainable. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, and add positions at low prices when futures prices fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. - **Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices declined to varying degrees. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, with a daily average pig iron output of 228.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.65%. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17%. Rebar production was 190.30 million tons, a decrease of 0.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 308.36 million tons, an increase of 0.93%. The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.99%, an increase of 1.08%. The operating rate was 72.97%. The five - major - product social inventory was 866.33 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. The rebar social inventory was 295.41 million tons, an increase of 5.23 million tons. The hot - rolled coil social inventory was 285.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The five - major - product steel mill inventory was 380.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.08% [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall output of five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and the apparent demand rebounded. The pig iron output is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is mainly due to year - end rush construction, and the decline in steel and pig iron output is limited. An accident at a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and the arrival volume decreased. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and returning to the upper edge of the previous oscillation range, where there may be some support, but the upward trend may end, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in time when the price rises in the future [4]. - **Data**: The settlement price of DCE iron ore futures and SGX iron ore futures declined. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with Australian shipments at 1440.1 million tons, a decrease of 13.22%, and Brazilian shipments at 480.1 million tons, a decrease of 25.80%. The arrival volume at northern six ports was 1442.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.79%. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.02 million tons, a decrease of 0.58%. The port inventory was 16555.1 million tons, an increase of 1.72% [4][5]. 3.3 Industry News - BHP's Pilbara iron ore production in Q4 2025 was 76.326 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.96% and a year - on - year increase of 4.26%. The total iron ore sales volume was 75.397 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.86%. The target guidance for the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 258 - 269 million tons [7]. - Heavy pollution weather orange alerts were activated in Henan's Xuchang and Jiaozuo on January 20, 2026, and industrial enterprises are required to implement emission reduction measures [7]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. From January to December, the cumulative production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [7]. - On January 17, 2026, the first batch of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore from Guinea's Simandou project arrived at Majishan Port. The project's annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and the expected export volume in 2026 is 18 million tons [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hotspot Tracking - The report is a hotspot tracking on January 20, 2026, from the Research and Consulting Department [2] Daily Price Changes, Fund Flows, and Volume Changes - Lists various futures varieties including cotton yarn, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., and shows their daily price changes, fund flows, and volume changes [5][8][10] Daily Fund Inflow Ranking - The top five futures with daily fund inflows are cotton yarn, PTA, ethylene glycol, Shanghai tin, and p - xylene; the top five with daily fund outflows are lithium carbonate, LPG, live pigs, wire rods, and iron ore [12] Position Value Proportion - Displays the position value proportion of different futures varieties, such as 13% for CSI 500 futures, 13% for Shanghai gold, and 15% for CSI 1000 futures [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Overall, the market is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the actual changes in demand [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The mainland supply remains high, traditional demand is weak, and there is short - term pressure, but the long - term pressure may ease. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound [2]. Natural Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are falling, but considering Thailand's approaching low - production period, the raw material decline may be limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but its own driving force is limited. Styrene is strong due to export and device issues, driving up the pure benzene price. Strategies include focusing on short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be stable and weak, and PVC is under pressure but has limited downward space due to cost support [5]. Urea - Urea prices are expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with supply remaining high and demand being cautious [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and glass is also expected to weaken, both can be treated bearishly [7]. Crude Oil - Short - term oil prices are affected by news, and the upside space is limited. Brent crude may oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [8]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in some contracts and inventories. The downstream PDH开工率 has decreased [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be bullish in the medium term. PTA, short - fiber, and polyester bottle - chip follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate inventory significantly [13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Futures Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined, with L2605 down 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices, such as华东PP拉丝现货价格 and华北LLDPE现货价格, decreased [1]. - **Spreads**: PP59价差 increased by 13.16%, while LP05价差 decreased by 18.50% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 2.48%, and PP装置开工率 increased slightly by 0.20% [1]. Methanol - **Futures and Spot Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 declined, and most spot prices also decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol企业库存 increased by 0.73%, while methanol港口库存 decreased by 6.63% [2]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic企业开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream外采MTO装置开工率 decreased significantly by 11.22% [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: Yunnan国营全乳胶 and other prices declined, such as a 1.27% drop in Yunnan国营全乳胶 [3]. - **Production and开工率**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 9.39%, and the开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, especially the dark - colored rubber [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: Brent原油 and other upstream prices changed slightly, while pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends, with styrene being stronger [4]. - **Inventory**: Pure苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 8.3%, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 7.1% [4]. - **开工率**: Asian pure苯开工率 decreased by 0.9%, and国内苯乙烯开工率 remained stable [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Shandong 32%液碱折百价 and华东电石法PVC市场价 decreased [5]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda行业开工率 and PVC总开工率 increased slightly [5]. - **Inventory**:液碱华东库存 decreased by 3.2%, and PVC总社会库存 increased by 2.8% [5]. Urea - **Prices**: Urea期货 prices showed different trends, and spot prices were slightly loose [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea日产量 reached a high of 200,000 tons, and the厂内库存 decreased by 3.53% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass2605 and玻璃2609 declined, and soda ash2609 decreased slightly [7]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 increased by 5.93%, and its weekly production increased by 8.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: Glass厂库 decreased by 5.69%, and soda ash厂库 increased by 4.25% [7]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent原油 decreased by 0.3%, WTI原油 was stable, and SC原油 decreased by 2.81% [8]. - **Spreads**: Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, changed slightly [8]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB and other refined oil prices had different changes [8]. LPG - **Prices**: Most LPG futures contracts declined, and the华南现货(民用气) and可交割现货 prices dropped to zero [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG炼厂库容比 decreased by 2.77%, and LPG港口库存 decreased by 4.89% [11]. - **开工率**: The upstream主营炼厂开工率 increased slightly, and the downstream PDH开工率 decreased by 3.36% [11]. PX, PTA, MEG, and Polyester Products - **Prices**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices had minor changes, and some polyester product prices increased slightly [13]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.7%, and PTA开工率 decreased by 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: MEG港口库存 decreased by 0.9% [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the U.S. soybean market was closed for the Martin Luther King Day. The Dalian soybean meal futures followed the rapeseed meal in a correction, while the soybean futures showed a stable spot price and a fluctuating adjustment in the futures market [1]. - As of January 15th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress reached 2%, up from 0.6% the previous week and higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. The overall harvest outlook is positive, but rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and Matopiba regions needs close monitoring [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4321 yuan/ton during the day session, down 14 yuan (-0.32%), and 4316 yuan/ton at night, down 6 yuan (-0.14%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2727 yuan/ton during the day, down 7 yuan (-0.26%), and 2715 yuan/ton at night, down 13 yuan (-0.48%). Due to the holiday, CBOT soybean 03 and CBOT soybean meal 03 prices were not available [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions, soybean meal spot prices were mostly stable or slightly decreased compared to the previous day. For example, in Shandong, the price range was 3120 - 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged. Different delivery - period basis prices in various regions were also mostly stable [1]. - **Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 24.7 tons per day on the previous trading day, slightly lower than 25.15 tons per day two days ago. The inventory data from two days ago was 101.88 tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The U.S. market was closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Day, and there was no CBOT agricultural product daily review [1]. - According to AgRural, as of January 15th, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 2%. Mato Grosso led the harvest, while Paraná's progress was behind the historical average. The overall harvest outlook is good, but rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and Matopiba needs attention [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 was 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares experienced a decline after continuous volume increase, with significant trading divergence, shrinking trading volume, and cooling market sentiment. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is around 1.85%, and the bond market trend may depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in Q1. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between 1.83% - 1.88% and the T2603 contract between 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range - bound operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and basis - widening strategies for TS, T, and TF contracts [2] - Gold prices continued to hit new highs due to the intensification of disputes between the US, Europe, and Greenland. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value. Silver trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold for volatility - reduction gains. Platinum futures should be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy near the 20 - day moving average, with a price range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium is weaker than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 A - shares - A - shares had a decline after continuous volume increase, with significant trading divergence, shrinking trading volume, and cooling market sentiment. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, take profits on some profitable contracts, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.85%, and the bond market trend may depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in Q1. In the short term, it is in a volatile pattern, with the 10 - year bond yield fluctuating between 1.83% - 1.88% and the T2603 contract between 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range - bound operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and basis - widening strategies for TS, T, and TF contracts [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value. Silver trading should be cautious, and out - of - the - money options can be sold for volatility - reduction gains. Platinum futures should be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy near the 20 - day moving average, with a price range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium is weaker than platinum, and out - of - the money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [2] 3.4 Shipping - The container shipping market showed a downward trend [2] 3.5 Steel - Steel prices may be dragged down by the weakening of raw material prices. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and long positions in the steel - to - iron ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be held [2] 3.6 Black Metals - Iron ore supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are continuously increasing. The price fluctuates widely in the range of 770 - 830. Coking coal prices in Shanxi have more increases than decreases, with improved trading volume, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures fluctuations. It is considered to be in a weak and volatile state, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke can be adopted. Coke prices are proposed to be raised by mainstream coke enterprises, and port trading prices follow futures fluctuations. It is also in a weak and volatile state, and the same arbitrage strategy can be used. Ferrosilicon has cost support and marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a wide - range fluctuation between 5300 - 5800. Manganese - silicon has a general increase in manganese ore overseas quotes, and market sentiment has declined, with a wide - range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000 [2] 3.7 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are continuously tight. Light long positions can be held cautiously, with the main contract focusing on the support at 97500 - 98500. Alumina spot inventories increased by 7.9 tons weekly, and the market is in a weak and volatile state. The main contract operates in the range of 2600 - 2900, and short positions can be taken on rallies. Aluminum is in a high - level volatile state, and there is a risk of an emotional correction in the short term. The main contract operates in the range of 23000 - 25000. It is not recommended to chase long positions due to signs of over - increase, and long positions can be established after a correction. Aluminum alloy inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot market maintains rigid demand. The main contract operates in the range of 22000 - 24000, and an arbitrage strategy of long AD03 and short AL03 can be adopted. Zinc prices are in a corrective state, and the spot premium is stable. The main contract focuses on the support at 23800, and a long - term long - on - dips strategy can be adopted, and the cross - market reverse spread can be held. Tin market sentiment has declined, and tin prices opened lower at night. Futures operations should be cautious. Nickel has gradually digested the impact of news, and the market is in a volatile adjustment state. The main contract operates in the range of 138000 - 148000. Stainless steel is mainly in a narrow - range volatile state, with a game between cost and supply - demand. The main contract operates in the range of 13800 - 14600 [2] 3.8 New Energy - Industrial silicon futures rose due to the news of production cuts by large - scale enterprises. The main contract operates in the range of 8200 - 9200. Polysilicon spot average prices increased slightly, and futures are in a strong and volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see. Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range adjustment state, with the main contract operating in the range of 140000 - 150000. Short - term range - bound operations can be carried out [2] 3.9 Energy Chemicals - PX is under short - term pressure due to increased supply expectations and weak near - term supply - demand under high valuation. It fluctuates between 7000 - 7500 in the short term and can be considered for long positions in the medium term. The PX 5 - 9 spread can be observed for now. PTA has a limited pre - holiday driving force under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation and follows raw material fluctuations. It fluctuates between 4900 - 5300 in the short term, and long positions can be tried below 5000. The TA 5 - 9 spread can be in a low - level positive spread. Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to be weak and follows raw material fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing margin on the disk can be shorted when it is high. Bottle - chip production lines are being overhauled, and factories are continuously reducing inventories, which supports the processing margin. The strategy is the same as that of PTA. The main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold on rallies. Ethylene glycol is facing seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. The price in January is still under pressure. EG 5 - 9 can be shorted on rallies, and the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4100 can hold. Pure benzene supply - demand has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventories. Shorting opportunities for BZ03 can be focused on, and the EB - BZ spread can be shorted when it is high. Styrene supply - demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation. It is not recommended to chase long positions in the short term. Shorting opportunities for EB03 and shorting opportunities for high EB processing margins can be focused on. LLDPE has a negative spread in orders and a decline in trading volume. Previous long positions have taken profits, and it is advisable to wait and see. PP has a weak supply - demand situation and a weak and volatile price. PDH profit expansion can be held. Methanol has a decline in geopolitical disturbances and light trading volume, with a weak price. It is advisable to wait and see. Caustic soda supply - demand remains weak, and the spot price is under pressure. It is advisable to wait and see. PVC export disturbances amplify market fluctuations, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply - demand. Market fluctuations are amplified, and short positions can wait and see. Urea trading has cooled down, and market confidence has weakened. Previous long positions can take profits at the right time, and the lower support level can be observed. Soda ash production capacity has increased, and daily output has reached a new high, while demand is still weak. It is in a weak and volatile state. Glass is in the off - season, with a continuous decline in the production - sales rate. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and production line changes. It is in a weak and volatile state. Natural rubber prices are weak and volatile due to the decline in overseas raw material prices. It is advisable to wait and see. Synthetic rubber is under pressure due to the decline in commodity sentiment and high inventory in the BR industry chain. Opportunities to expand the spread between BR2603 and NR2603 can be focused on [2] 3.10 Agricultural Products - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are in a range - bound and weak state due to lack of market drivers. Pig supply is still at a high level, and the market is under pressure, with prices in a range - bound state. Corn transportation is blocked, and prices are at a high - level and volatile state. Edible oils may have a short - term correction due to the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, and palm oil may fluctuate around 8650 in the short term. Sugar prices are under pressure on rallies due to the holiday closure of the raw sugar market. Cotton prices are in a weak adjustment state due to the continuous game between supply and demand. Egg prices are mainly stable, and the market is in a range - bound state. Apple inventory reduction progress is slow, and futures prices are in a weak and volatile state. Put options can be bought. Jujube demand is weak, and futures prices are declining. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream production cut of industrial silicon has disrupted the market, causing the futures price to rebound, while the polysilicon market is affected by news [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2605 is 8,845 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 391,114 lots and an open interest of 235,167 lots. The closing price of PS2605 is 50,505 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 12,235 lots and an open interest of 44,571 lots [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, while polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - feed is +5150 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - feed is 55000 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants is - 2526.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants is - 5749 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.4 yuan/kg, DMC enterprise profit is 1830 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 130 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 55.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton [1] - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The prices of products such as silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of TOPCon - 210mm battery cells is 0.41 yuan/watt [1] - **Organosilicon**: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is 23900 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On the evening of January 16th, TCL Zhonghuan announced plans to acquire all or part of the shares of Yida New Energy, but the investment is still in the planning stage and there are uncertainties [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a slightly positive view on polysilicon [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the improvement in apparent demand provides some support for futures prices, and the central bank's reduction in re - loan and re - discount rates boosts market confidence to some extent. However, the market is in the off - season, and the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush construction and lack strong sustainability. Steel mill production may continue to decline in the short term. [2] - For the iron ore sector, demand is affected by the seasonal decline in molten iron production, and the improvement in steel apparent demand is likely due to year - end rush construction. The accident at a rolling mill of Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand. Supply has decreased in global shipments, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices, while the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, thread production decreased, overall inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand for thread and the five major steel products rebounded. The market is in the off - season, and the improvement in demand may be due to year - end rush construction. Short - term steel mill production may continue to decline. [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough and facing significant pressure. [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce long positions, wait for futures prices to fall to the lower edge of the oscillation range and then add positions on dips for mid - line trading. Avoid chasing highs or selling lows. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices generally declined. For example, the closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3140 yuan/ton, down 0.79% from last week. [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures showed different changes. For example, the main basis of thread steel was 150 yuan/ton, up 5 from last week. [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The production of some products changed, and inventory also showed different trends. For example, the production of thread steel by national building material steel mills was 190.30 tons, down 0.39% from last week. The social inventory of thread steel was 295.41 tons, up 1.80% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand Situation**: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged last week, and apparent demand rebounded. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel apparent demand is due to year - end rush construction, and steel and molten iron production will not rise significantly but also have limited decline space. The accident at a rolling mill of Baotou Steel Group may affect iron ore demand. [3] - **Supply Situation**: Global shipments have decreased, and rising port inventories suppress futures prices. [3] - **Price Support Factor**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke supports iron ore prices. [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices broke through the recent oscillation range and rose strongly but have adjusted significantly in the past two days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average, indicating the end of the mid - line upward trend. [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions and reduce or liquidate positions in a timely manner when the price rises in the future. [3] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 794 yuan/dry ton, down 3.47% from last week. [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of iron ore futures showed different changes. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 14 yuan/dry ton, up 75 from last week. [4] - **Supply - related Data**: Overseas shipments decreased, and port inventories increased. For example, Australian iron ore shipments were 1440.1 tons, down 13.22% from last week, and port inventory was 16555.1 tons, up 1.72% from last week. [4] 3. Industry News - From January 12th to 18th, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons from the previous period. [6] - From January 12th to 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2929.8 tons, a decrease of 251.1 tons from the previous period. [6] - In December 2025, the crude steel output was 6818 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. [6] - In December 2025, the raw coal output was 43703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferromanganese (MnSi)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Iron (SiFe)**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Mid - term, it will operate within a range. Rebar demand rebounds month - on - month, with production and inventory remaining largely flat. Hot - rolled coil production and apparent demand are relatively stable, with inventory slightly decreasing but at a high absolute level and slow destocking speed [1][3][4] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - making molten iron output slightly decreases month - on - month, steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly, with the fundamentals weakening marginally [1][6] - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts is implemented and some coke enterprises initiate the first round of price increases, the loss of coke enterprises deepens. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coke enterprises is acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month - on - month. The market sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][10] - **Coking Coal**: The supply from previously shut - down coal mines increases significantly month - on - month. The port clearance volume has returned to the high level of the same period. The spot trading has improved recently, and the downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][14] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply in the production area decreases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains at a high level. For silicon iron, the supply in the main production areas increases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases month - on - month. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and attention should be paid to the pricing of steel mills [1][17] 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs Steel Variety Views - **Rebar**: Demand rebounds month - on - month, production and inventory are mostly unchanged. Current profits are acceptable, but due to the off - season of demand, the expectation of production increase is not strong. The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, and high raw material prices suppress the enthusiasm of steel mills to replenish inventory [1][4] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory slightly decreases, but the absolute level is high, and the destocking speed is slow. The spot is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around the flat - water level [1][4] Disk Operation Suggestions - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to operate within a range in the medium term. In the short term, due to the steel mill accident, there may be an expectation of stricter safety production, bringing phased boosts [1][5] Iron Ore Variety Views - The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly, with the fundamentals weakening marginally [1][6] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bearish. The iron - making molten iron output slightly decreases, and the supply - demand situation weakens month - on - month [1][7] Coke Variety Views - After the fourth round of price cuts is implemented and some coke enterprises initiate the first round of price increases, the loss of coke enterprises deepens due to rising raw coal prices. In the short term, the production enthusiasm is acceptable, and the supply decreases slightly month - on - month. The iron - making molten iron output decreases slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory replenishment improves slightly, mainly purchasing as needed. The market sentiment fluctuates, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][10] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [1][11] Coking Coal Variety Views - Previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply increases significantly month - on - month. The port clearance volume has returned to the high level of the same period. The spot trading has improved recently, and the downstream has a strong willingness to replenish inventory, with good destocking of mine inventory. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][14] Disk Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [1][15] Ferroalloys Variety Views - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area decreases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory starts to decline but remains at a high level. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and the recently announced tender prices are mostly concentrated between 5870 - 5940 yuan/ton, with the final price of a landmark steel mill at 5920 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [1][17] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply in the main production areas increases month - on - month, demand weakens marginally, and inventory decreases month - on - month. New rounds of steel tenders are starting, and the final price of a landmark steel mill is 5760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actions of other steel mills [1][17] Disk Operation Suggestions - Both ferromanganese and silicon iron are expected to operate within a range in the short term [1][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [2][3]. - PP has insufficient driving force, and the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market lacks obvious driving factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period. Due to new maintenance plans of some enterprises and extended overall maintenance time, the capacity utilization rate decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 350,300 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 11.41%. The inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 484,280 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [3]. 3.1.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 199, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. 3.1.5 Profit - The costs of oil - based and coal - based production increased by 220 and 132 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The costs of ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production decreased by 92, 93, and 64 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE changed compared with the previous period [3]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [3]. 3.1.7 Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3]. 3.2 PP Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 780,800 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, and the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec decreased by 3.33% [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. As the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional terminal industries such as packaging, building materials, and daily necessities have entered the shutdown and stockpiling stage in advance. The average operating rate of CPP sample enterprises remained the same as last week [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 695,500 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.45%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 431,000 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 10,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.27%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene ports decreased by 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70% [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 54, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. 3.2.5 Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production declined. The average weekly import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 243.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.18 yuan/ton from last week, a month - on - month increase of 15.34% [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [4]. 3.2.7 Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - The report provides a summary of the main weekly data of PP and LLDPE, including futures prices, spot prices, raw material prices, basis, inventory, and operating rates, showing their changes compared with last week [6]. 3.4 PE Fundamental Changes - Supply: This week, China's PE production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. Some enterprises had new maintenance plans, and the overall maintenance time was extended [3]. - Demand: The demand for PE downstream products decreased, and the operating rates of some products such as agricultural films and packaging films declined. In November, imports increased month - on - month [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE producers decreased, and the social sample warehouse inventory increased slightly. The inventory was transferred smoothly from producers to downstream [3]. - Cost: Energy price cuts led to a decrease in production costs [24]. - Profit: The profit of PE production was lower than the same period last year [27]. - Import and Export: PE exports were better than the same period last year [31]. 3.5 PP Fundamental Changes - Capacity and Production: This week, China's PP production increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate changed [4]. - Inventory: The inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, but the port inventory was lower than the same period last year [49][57]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand for PP was divergent, and the operating rates of different products changed differently [68]. - Production Profit: The production profit of PP was similar to that of last year [83].