六连跌后马棕油逆袭上涨1.46%！中国按需采购VS印度抄底囤货，市场破局关键在谁？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

市场对金价的炒作，已经达到阶段性高潮。 4月22日，国际金价继续刷新新高，当日午后伦敦金现货、COMEX黄金双双突破3500美元整数价位。 数据显示，4月10日沪金期货总持仓量为39.2万手，而截至今日收盘时已经升至45.3万手，为该品种上市以来的历史最高值。 | | 期货主力 外盘主力 品种加权 上证A股 深证A股 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | 名称 ala | 最新 | 沉淀受金 | | 日1 V1 /日 /11/ | 沪金加权 | 832.88 980.40 | | | 快速涨幅 | | | | | 跌幅 | 1000股指加权 | 5743.0 864.85 | | | 5日涨幅 跌幅 | 300股指加权 | 3724.8 656.35 | | | 20日涨幅 跌幅 | 500股指加权 | 5471.4 | 526.69 | | 成交量 | 沪铜加权 | 76930 | 366.58 | | 持仓量 | 沪银加权 | 8204 | 297.36 | | 日増減仓 | 豆粕加权 | 3033 | 187.13 | | 沉淀资金 | 铁矿石加权 | 716.0 ...

Group 1: Apple 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for apples is to be bullish in a volatile market [5] 2. Core View - The current apple market is in the traditional sales peak season, with improved terminal consumption of late - Fuji apples. The inventory is at a five - year low, and the de - stocking pressure is small, so it is expected that this week's transactions will remain smooth and prices will be firm with a slight upward trend. However, since apples are non - essential goods, a sharp price increase in the sales area will suppress demand and slow down the price increase. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some产区 have suffered frost damage, with a certain expected reduction in production. Weather factors still have a great impact on the production forecast, and short - term prices of futures and spot are expected to be positive [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,922 yuan/ton, a change of +248 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +3.23%. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 4.05 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late - Fuji apples in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.30 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis of Shandong Qixia was AP10 + 178, a change of - 248 from the previous day; the spot basis of Shaanxi Luochuan was AP10 + 678, also a change of - 248 from the previous day [2] Market Analysis - In the production areas, the in - warehouse transactions are active, the overall shipment is smooth, and the prices are generally stable. In the western production areas, the transactions of merchants' goods are smooth, and the prices are slightly firm. In the Shandong production area, the number of merchants looking for goods has increased, and the transactions are mainly low - priced goods. In the sales areas, the number of incoming trucks is normal, and the overall shipment is okay. The current inventory is at a five - year low, with little de - stocking pressure. New - season apples are in the flowering period, and some areas in Gansu and northern Shaanxi have suffered frost damage, with a certain expected reduction in production. The futures and spot prices are expected to be positive in the short term. This week, attention should be paid to factors such as the continuity of merchants' replenishment, the shipment in the sales area, farmers' selling mentality, new - season flower quantity, and weather changes [3][4] Group 2: Red Dates 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for red dates is neutral [8] 2. Core View - The red date market is currently in a state where the supply of goods in the sales area is sufficient, and merchants purchase on demand. With the increase in temperature, the demand for warehousing has increased significantly, and the cold - storage capacity is tight. The 2024 red date harvest exceeded expectations, and the market has no significant differences in the fundamentals of red dates. Currently, both futures and spot prices are at historical lows, and the consumption off - season will last until September. The cost of red date warehouse receipts provides some support, and the downside space is limited. The market will focus on the growth of new - season red dates, and short - term prices are expected to be volatile [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 9,440 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.11%. Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was CJ09 - 1140, a change of +10 from the previous day [5][6] Market Analysis - In the Xinjiang main production area of grey jujubes, the jujube trees have sporadically entered the budding stage, and jujube farmers are actively managing the fields. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, there are more than a dozen trucks of incoming goods, and the market supply is sufficient. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, there are 2 trucks of incoming goods, and the mainstream prices are stable. The red date futures closed slightly lower yesterday. In the short term, prices are expected to remain stable. The market will focus on the impact of weather changes on the growth of new - season red dates [6][7]

2025年04月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 铝：区间震荡 | 4 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 4 | | 锌：窄幅调整，上方仍承压 | 6 | | 铅：区间调整 | 7 | | 镍：矿端矛盾下方支撑，相对经济性收敛上方空间 | 8 | | 不锈钢：负反馈施压估值，成本下行但仍有托底 | 8 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势，逢高布空思路为主 | 10 | | 多晶硅：关注上方空间 | 10 | | 碳酸锂：下游采买意愿仍有限，偏弱震荡或延续 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 04 月 22 日 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] 2. Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum and alumina, including futures market and spot market data, and provides information on recent industry events and trend intensities [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 19,870 yuan, up 175 yuan from the previous trading day; the trading volume was 171,811 lots, and the open interest was 212,640 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,385 US dollars, up 7 US dollars. The LME注销仓单占比 was 41.97%, down 0.38% [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,844 yuan, up 26 yuan; the trading volume was 385,015 lots, and the open interest was 209,696 lots [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 676,000 tons, down 12,000 tons; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 85,200 tons, down 7,300 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 434,200 tons, down 2,800 tons [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The domestic alumina average price was 2,886 yuan, down 2 yuan; the alumina CIF price at Lianyungang was 374 US dollars/ton, up 0 US dollars [1] Industry News - On April 21, a Sichuan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased 3,000 tons of spot alumina in Guizhou at a factory price of 3,065 yuan/ton, including 35% acceptance [1] - A large alumina enterprise in Henan is conducting maintenance on the dissolution end of a low-temperature line due to recent quality instability and high costs, with an expected resumption of production on May 10, affecting an annual production capacity of 400,000 tons [3] - On April 21, an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang continued its regular tender for spot alumina procurement. The total tender volume this week increased by 10,000 tons to 20,000 tons compared with previous weeks. The winning factory prices of traders varied widely, ranging from 3,180 - 3,200 yuan/ton, equivalent to a factory price of about 2,900 yuan/ton for Shanxi sources and 2,850 - 2,860 yuan/ton for Shandong sources [3] Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 低位运行 | 螺纹需求增加明显，已接近去年同期。产量小幅回落，库存去化较好，供 | | | | 需层面有所改善。但铁水产量维持高位，后期钢材整体供需或存在趋于宽 | | | | 松的压力。市场对政策仍有期待，短期市场低位震荡运行。【3050，3150】 | | 热卷 | 低位运行 | 热卷供需均小幅增加，数据上看暂时无明显矛盾。但贸易摩擦升级以及越 | | | | 南、韩国反倾销政策或对出口预期产生影响。中期基本面仍有趋于宽松的 | | | | 倾向，短期市场低位震荡运行，等待驱动指引。【3150，3250】 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 发到货双增，铁水产量止增转降，但钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 随着外矿发运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。下游需求仍在改善， | | | | 关注钢厂节前补库及宏观政策出台情况。【670,750】 | | | | 铁水日产量仍然维持在 240 万吨左右的高位，钢厂生产积极性较高，对原 | | 焦炭 | 弱势运行 | 料需求有保障。焦炭周产量持 ...

期货研究报告|焦煤焦炭周报 2025-04-20 市场情绪低迷，期货盘面走弱 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 焦炭方面，焦炭产量环比持稳，目前铁水有见顶迹象，在美国关税扰动及后续铁水增产 空间有限的情况下，部分钢厂考虑原料库存整体偏高，采购再次转向谨慎，焦炭整体供 需相对平衡，关注后续钢厂补库的持续性，以及海外宏观风险事件的扰动影响。焦煤方 面，成本端原料价格涨跌互现，焦炭首轮提涨后焦企利润有所修复，贸易环节也多积极 出货为主，焦煤市场交投氛围逐步转弱，当前焦炭产量持稳，焦煤刚需支撑，后续关注 下游补库的持续性及海外关税 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: April 18, 2025 - Research Institute: Huajin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints Iron Ore - Overseas shipments are generally at normal levels,非主流 shipments are declining, and domestic iron concentrate production is stable. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is expected to remain high. Port inventories are gradually decreasing, and there is a short - term upward impulse before the holiday, but medium - term pressure remains [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicle numbers are stable, with obvious supply surplus. Coke prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, but coking profits are still negative. Futures and spot prices lack continuous rebound momentum, and attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 41.8 tons to 2434.8 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, dropping 56 tons to about 472.9 tons this week. Second - quarter arrivals are expected to be at an average level [6]. Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's Q4 2024 iron ore shipments reached 48.9 million tons, a 3.56% quarter - on - quarter increase, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's FY25 Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [16]. Demand - This week, hot metal production remained stable at about 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio declined, and the port clearance volume remained high, with downstream replenishment on demand [21]. Inventory - Sinter powder inventories are at normal levels, and port total inventories decreased by 2.8502 million tons to 140.56 million tons this week. Steel mill imported sinter powder inventories increased by 0.1831 million tons to 12.6678 million tons [27][30]. Futures and Spot Structure - Futures and spot prices are in a low - level shock, with far - month prices at a large discount to spot prices, indicating weak expected demand. Before May Day, the pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness is expected to continue [33]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, CPI is generally falling, and tariff issues are causing market sentiment fluctuations. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [40]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipments - Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, and there is a certain relationship between them and iron ore prices [44]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - Hot metal production is expected to remain high. Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time this week, and there is an expectation of a second increase next week, with coke profits recovering [51]. Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking plant coking coal inventories increased by 0.1044 million tons to 9.7613 million tons, and steel mill coking coal inventories increased by 0.046 million tons to about 7.8423 million tons. Port imported coking coal inventories decreased by 0.1154 million tons to 3.3738 million tons, and mine clean coal inventories are at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - Due to obvious supply surplus, all contracts are continuously falling, and downstream purchasing willingness is poor, with no obvious inflection point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, with negative but recovering profits. Independent coking plant production is at a low level, inventories are decreasing, and port inventories have reached a high level for the same period [66]. Coke Term Structure - Coke futures prices are continuously falling, spot prices are in a low - level shock. There are rumors of further price increases, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply surplus but high long - term uncertainty. The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as South American soybean harvest, US soybean inventory, and tariff policies, with short - term price suppression and long - term supply likely to tighten. For both rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, short - term trading is recommended [8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Strategy**: Short - term participation is recommended [7]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed lower in a volatile manner. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 9,221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed exports are temporarily unaffected. The rising rapeseed price supports domestic rapeseed oil prices. Palm oil is under pressure due to the upcoming seasonal production increase. The US tariff suspension improves market sentiment. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports in Q1 eases supply pressure, but rising import costs limit future imports. However, rising inventories continue to restrain prices [8]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy**: Short - term participation is recommended [10]. - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures closed lower in a volatile manner. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2,597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - **Market Outlook**: South American soybean harvests are progressing, pressuring international soybean prices. The US soybean ending inventory forecast is lowered, and the planting progress is slow. In China, the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in mid - to - late April suppresses soybean meal prices. The 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal raises import costs, but new imports from India and high short - term inventories suppress rapeseed meal prices [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures closed lower with a total open interest of 292,103 lots, an increase of 46,921 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures also closed lower with a total open interest of 628,479 lots, an increase of 47,356 lots from the previous week [17]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders in rapeseed oil futures decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders in rapeseed meal futures increased significantly [23]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil were 1,791 lots, and for rapeseed meal were 1,000 lots [29]. Spot Price and Basis - As of Friday, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,370 yuan/ton, up from last week. The basis between the active contract and the Jiangsu spot price was +149 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was - 107 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - As of Friday, the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was +154 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +201 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [45]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio - As of Friday, the ratio of the 09 contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 3.55, and the average spot price ratio was 3.76 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - As of Friday, the 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,517 yuan/ton (narrowed slightly this week), and between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,089 yuan/ton (narrowly fluctuated). The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 424 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of April 10, 2025 was 720 yuan/ton [59][65]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of April 11, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 350,000 tons, a 16.67% increase from the previous period. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in April, May, and June 2025 were 240,000, 200,000, and 430,000 tons respectively [71]. - **Supply - Side Import and Pressing Profit**: As of April 17, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +324 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Side Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 15th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.45% [79]. - **Supply - Side Monthly Import Volume**: In February 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 333,054.94 tons, a 17.46% year - on - year increase [83]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 888,000 tons, a 1.12% increase from last week. In March 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 78.95% year - on - year increase [87]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440,400 tons, and the catering revenue was 423.5 billion yuan [91]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 171,000 tons, a 9.03% decrease from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 19,000 tons, a 33.22% decrease from last week [99]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In February 2025, China's rapeseed meal imports were 287,934.42 tons, a 38.62% year - on - year increase [103]. - **Demand - Side Feed Production**: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,777,200 tons [107]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options oscillated and declined. As of April 18, it was 22.71%, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [111]. Representative Enterprise - For Daodaoquan, the PE (TTM) was 18.37, with a - 3.47% change, and the percentile was 74.18% [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand has weakened, causing the price of urea to decline continuously [1] - The supply - side pressure has increased as previously shut - down urea enterprises gradually resume production, while downstream replenishment has slowed down, leading to a decrease in overall orders and an increase in enterprise inventory [3] - The cost of coal - based and gas - based production has fluctuated slightly. The decline in urea prices has led to lower production profits, but cost support is still acceptable [3] - Agricultural fertilizer use has entered an off - season, with slow fertilizer preparation for southern rice and scattered agricultural demand. Industrial demand in the compound fertilizer and panel industries has seen a slight decline in the operating rate, and rigid demand has advanced steadily [3] - With the domestic export policy remaining tight, port inventory has fluctuated slightly [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents graphs of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][11][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Graphs of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][27] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows graphs of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [23][31][34] 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - Graphs of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, relevant price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][39][42][45][48] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Graphs of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [55][56][57] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes graphs of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][61][64]