Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 16, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - For BU2506, the opening price was 3340 yuan/ton, closing at 3301 yuan/ton, with a high of 3342 yuan/ton, a low of 3293 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12%, and a trading volume of 20.19 million lots [6] - For BU2507, the opening price was 3318 yuan/ton, closing at 3293 yuan/ton, with a high of 3328 yuan/ton, a low of 3287 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%, and a trading volume of 2.60 million lots [6] Spot Market - As of the noon market today, asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and East China declined, while those in Northeast and South China rose slightly, and prices in other regions remained stable [6] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Sinopec Sichuan in Southwest China and Tianzhize in Northwest China plan to produce asphalt stably. Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million - ton plant and Henan Fengli's 1.3 million - ton plant may resume asphalt production, and the average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to continue rising [7] - Demand: Rain in Jiangnan and South China will affect road construction, weakening the rigid demand in these areas. Cold air in central and eastern China will impact some northern projects. With significant fluctuations in international oil prices, the spot market is cautious, and speculative demand is released conservatively [7] Market Outlook - The asphalt market fundamentals remain weak in both supply and demand. With oil prices bottoming out, asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Group 3: Industry News Shandong Market - The mainstream intended price of 70A asphalt is 3330 - 3500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Low - price resource transactions are okay, and some local refineries raised prices, but Qilu Petrochemical's settlement price decline pulled down high - end prices [8] East China Market - The mainstream intended price of 70A asphalt is 3500 - 3570 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous day. Demand is weak, and social inventory shipments have not improved significantly. Sinopec's price cuts narrowed the price gap between its plants and local refineries and social inventories [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures including asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][16][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for soda ash is a rebound, but long - term repair will take time. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and demand has also increased, alleviating the supply - demand imbalance in the short term. [8] - The glass market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The demand shows a seasonal recovery, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated to some extent, but the demand growth is slow, and the enterprise inventory is still relatively high compared to previous years. [9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash**: On April 14, the main futures contract SA505 of soda ash fluctuated upwards, closing at 1339 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton with a 1.13% increase, and the daily position decreased by 53,276 lots. The weekly output of soda ash in China for the week of April 10 continued to rise for three weeks to 739,000 tons, and the weekly operating load rate reached 88%. The consumption was 749,400 tons, a 16.81% increase from the previous period. The weekly enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash increased slightly to 880,000 tons. [7][8] - **Glass**: On April 14, the main futures contract FG505 of glass fluctuated weakly, closing at 1152 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease, and the daily position decreased by 77,016 lots. The demand is in a seasonal recovery, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, but the demand growth is slow, and the enterprise inventory is still high. [9] 3.2 Industry News - **Soda Ash**: In the central China soda ash market, the market was weakly operating, and the trading center moved down. The mainstream pick - up price of light soda ash in Henan was 1260 - 1300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory - delivered price of heavy soda ash was 1450 - 1500 yuan/ton. In Hubei, the mainstream pick - up price of light soda ash was 1350 - 1380 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory - delivered price of heavy soda ash was 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton. In Hunan, the mainstream pick - up price of light soda ash was about 1400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory - delivered price of heavy soda ash was about 1500 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of baking soda in Henan was stable, with average orders. [11] - **Glass**: The average price of 5mm large - size float glass in the Shahe market decreased by 0.05 yuan/square meter to 15.42 yuan/square meter, and the average price of 4.4mm small - size glass decreased by 0.06 yuan/square meter to 13.55 yuan/square meter. The market price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. After slow sales on the weekend due to windy weather, the market trading improved today. [11] 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trend of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand remained sluggish, and costs increased in the dry season. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9230 - 9390 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing, demand is showing signs of recovery but may be weak later, and costs are stable. The overall fundamentals are bullish, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41200 - 41900 [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 70,000 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 57,000 tons, a 13.63% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 in Xinjiang is 2854 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased in the dry season [6]. - Basis: On April 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 612,000 tons, a 0.66% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 273,250 tons, a 2.42% increase; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling has decreased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery is emerging, and cost support has increased. Industrial silicon 2505 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9230 - 9390 [6][7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 23,100 tons, a 7.94% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for April is predicted to be 100,900 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.55GW, a 34.82% increase from the previous week, and inventory was 209,000 tons, a 7.17% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for April is 58.02GW, a 14.30% increase from the previous month. In March, the output of battery cells was 57.32GW, a 39.70% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 2.58GW, a 101.56% increase. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for April is 56.81GW, a 0.88% decrease. In March, the output of components was 51GW, a 38.96% increase from the previous month. The expected output of components in April is 57.88GW, a 13.49% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 52.2GW, a 2.33% increase, and the European monthly inventory is 44.6GW, a 7.46% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 39,650 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 2350 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On April 14, the price of N - type polysilicon was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 450 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [12]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 236,000 tons, a 4.45% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical high, which is bearish [12]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase. On the demand side, silicon wafer production continues to increase, battery cell production increases in the short - term and is expected to回调 in the medium - term, and component production continues to increase. Overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak later. Cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2506 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41200 - 41900 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview - Industrial silicon: The prices of most contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 120 yuan to 10,130 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease; the 05 contract decreased by 145 yuan to 9310 yuan/ton, a 1.53% decrease. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [18]. - Polysilicon: The prices of most silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only minor price changes in a few products [20]. 3.3 Other Information - The report also provides a large amount of data on the price, production, inventory, and cost trends of industrial silicon and its downstream industries (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon) over different time periods, as well as their supply - demand balance tables [22][25][27][33][35][37][40][42][45][48][51][53][58][61].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产地陆续停产，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：首轮提涨搁置，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求改善，价格探涨 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年04月14日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 4 月 14 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo025993@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang015104@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 708. 0 | 涨跌(元/吨) 1. ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: April 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes and Operational Suggestions - Futures Quotes: EG2505 closed at 4,279 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan; EG2509 closed at 4,333 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract EG2505 was 312,204 lots, and the open interest was 215,513 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The short - term supply - demand structure of the ethylene glycol market is expected to improve, but due to the existing risk - aversion sentiment in the macro - market, the market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [7] Group 3: Industry News - Oil Price: On April 10, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for May 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.07 per barrel, down $2.28 or 3.66% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for June 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.33 per barrel, down $2.15 or 3.28% from the previous trading day [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 4,347 - 4,348 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation prices for late April and late May were 4,352 - 4,354 yuan/ton and 4,361 - 4,364 yuan/ton respectively [8] - Polyester Market: Polyester factories promoted products in the afternoon and continued to lower prices. Downstream procurement remained cautious, and the overall sales of polyester filament were average [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Graphs: The report includes graphs such as PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price summary, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory [10][15][16][19]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 2: Core View - On April 10, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2506 was 3240 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 2.84% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 177,622 lots, a decrease of 10,286 lots, and the trading volume was 386,207 lots, a decrease of 69,170 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3690 - 4056 yuan/ton, Shandong 3300 - 3550 yuan/ton, South China 3330 - 3600 yuan/ton, and East China 3540 - 3720 yuan/ton [1] - Due to Trump's authorization to suspend tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days, risk assets that had fallen sharply due to tariff concerns rebounded. The Brent crude oil price rose to around $65/barrel, driving up the futures prices of downstream energy and chemical products including asphalt. Currently, the asphalt market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with no obvious overall contradictions. Local spot prices have declined, and the basis has narrowed. The current market drive mainly comes from the macro and crude oil aspects, and it may fluctuate repeatedly in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Futures market: The main asphalt futures contract BU2506 showed price increase, decreased open interest, and decreased trading volume on April 10 [1] - Spot market: Different regions have different ranges of heavy - traffic asphalt spot settlement prices [1] - Market drive: The price increase is mainly due to the rebound of risk assets and crude oil, while the asphalt's own fundamentals are weak in supply and demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The strategy is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Figures - There are figures showing various aspects of asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures contract prices (index, main, near - month), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, from independent refineries, in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

Group 1 - Palm oil futures are expected to decline for the second consecutive week, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - Market expectations regarding the future price trends of palm oil remain pessimistic [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - Downstream wait - and - see sentiment has intensified, and overall trading performance is mediocre. With continuous decline in crude oil and waning downstream enthusiasm for purchasing high - priced resources, short - term trading aims to ensure sales. Although there is some support on the cost side due to counter - measures against US tariffs, the market has insufficient upward drive under the background of bearish international crude oil and weak downstream PDH demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On April 9, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4920 - 5050; Northeast market, 4650 - 4850; North China market, 5050 - 5220; East China market, 5600; Yangtze River market, 5610 - 5730; Northwest market, 4800 - 5100; South China market, 5468 - 5530 [1]. - In the first half of May 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 604 US dollars/ton, up 125 US dollars/ton, and butane was 594 US dollars/ton, up 125 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4790 yuan/ton, up 999 yuan/ton, and butane was 4711 yuan/ton, up 999 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of May 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 616 US dollars/ton, up 39 US dollars/ton, and butane was 606 US dollars/ton, up 39 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4885 yuan/ton, up 318 yuan/ton, and butane was 4806 yuan/ton, up 319 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, import terminals in the South China market took the lead in offering discounts, which intensified downstream wait - and - see sentiment. Some refineries accumulated inventory. High - olefin C4 prices were stable with a downward trend, although downstream deep - processing products had good transactions yesterday [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of tariffs, the domestic and international macro - environment is operating weakly, and the prices of polyolefins continue to decline. With the continuous commissioning of new domestic polyolefin plants and the arrival of the maintenance season for upstream petrochemical plants, the overall supply of polyolefins is acceptable. The downstream start - up of PE is seasonally rising, while that of PP is increasing, and the inventory pressure of polyolefin producers is acceptable with overall inventory destocking. The strategy for plastics is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side trade, and there is no cross - period strategy [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to this section include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate is 82.5% (+0.2%), and the oil - based production profit is 951.8 yuan/ton (+69.7). For PP, the operating rate is 76.4% (+0.0%), the oil - based production profit is 331.8 yuan/ton (+69.7), and the PDH - based production profit is - 45.6 yuan/ton (-118.0). Relevant figures include those showing LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [1][20][23] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures in this section cover HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China [27][34][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 514.6 yuan/ton (-49.8), PP import profit is - 408.8 yuan/ton (-28.0), and PP export profit is 78.2 US dollars/ton (+3.4). Relevant figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and PP homopolymer injection Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR [1][44][55] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 40.6% (-0.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.8% (-1.3%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate is 47.6% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.8% (+0.3%). Figures include those showing PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag operating rate, PP downstream BOPP operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven bag production gross profit, and PP downstream BOPP production gross profit [1][59][73] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions various types of polyolefin inventory, and relevant figures include PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [75][78][83]

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-10 山东下游采购价再下调，烧碱延续偏弱运行 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4861元/吨（-46）；华东基差-91元/吨（-4）;华南基差-21元/吨（-24）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4770元/吨（-50）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格3080元/吨（-5）；电石利润306元/吨（-5）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-727元/吨（-18）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-634元/吨（-36）；PVC出口利润21.6美元/吨（+2.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存45.4万吨（+1.3）；PVC社会库存45.4万吨（-1.5）；PVC电石法开工率82.4%（+0.5%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.8%（-0.6%）；PVC开工率80.0%（+0.2%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量62.1万吨（+0.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2355元/吨（-17）；山东32%液碱基差161元/吨（+1）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价805元/吨（-5）；山东50 ...