Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a decrease in new RMB loans and social financing in October, indicating a continued decline in credit growth amid seasonal effects and policy influences [1][2] - Despite the decline in loan growth, M2 growth remains relatively high, reflecting ongoing financial support for the real economy [1][3] Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion [1] - The social financing scale for October was 815 billion, down 597 billion year-on-year [1] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The decline in loan demand is attributed to weak domestic demand and declining external demand, which has suppressed credit needs for both enterprises and households [1][2] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a decrease in financing costs [2] - The cumulative social financing scale for the first ten months of the year reached 30.9 trillion, an increase of 3.83 trillion compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The shift in credit structure is moving from traditional sectors like infrastructure and real estate to emerging sectors such as technology innovation and green low-carbon initiatives [3] - The current RMB loan balance has reached 270 trillion, with the social financing scale at 437 trillion, suggesting a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development [3] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing the efficiency of existing funds and optimizing the allocation of financial resources to better match supply and demand [3]

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing a significant increase of 8% [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China rose by 2.9% year-on-year in October, driven by policies encouraging the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in communication and cultural office supplies, which saw increases of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing the previous month's decline, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, marking a continuous increase over six months [2] - The improvement in price data is attributed to macroeconomic policy effects and a balanced supply-demand relationship, indicating a comprehensive enhancement in macroeconomic conditions and industry prosperity [2] Policy Measures - Local governments have allocated 500 billion yuan to enhance fiscal capacity and expand effective investment, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools supporting over 2,300 projects, totaling approximately 7 trillion yuan in investment, focusing on digital economy and artificial intelligence [3] - The recent monetary policy report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and balancing short-term growth stabilization with long-term structural adjustments, reflecting a commitment to support the real economy [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The inventory of ferromanganese silicon is rising faster, and the subsequent production pressure is expected to increase. The leading manganese-based enterprises plan to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry by 40%, but the supply did not decline from August to September and decreased slightly in October. On the demand side, the national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel production will continue to decline. Coke profits have little room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement the spot - housing sales system. The central bank's RMB loan balance has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in buying houses continued to decline, and they continued to adopt a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Overseas: Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs, the US will face an "economic disaster" [6]. - Supply and Demand: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 83,000 tons, and on the demand side, hot metal production has declined seasonally. In terms of profits, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 330 yuan/ton. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of November 14, the position of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract is 604,600 lots, an increase of 35,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 60, an increase of 6 points. The number of ferromanganese silicon warehouse receipts is 19,863, an increase of 5,505. The spread between the January contracts of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon is 258, an increase of 24 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis is - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 points [24]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. The daily average output is 28,510 tons, a decrease of 330 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel types is 118,589 tons, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week, and the weekly supply of national ferromanganese silicon is 199,570 tons, a decrease of 1.14% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory of 346,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons [28][32]. - Upstream: As of November 12, the price of South African manganese ore and Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged. As of November 10, the electricity price in Ningxia remained unchanged, and in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh. As of November 7, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.397 million tons, an increase of 1.92%. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore this week is 516,800 tons, an increase of 16% from the previous week, Australian manganese ore is 67,300 tons, an increase of 100%, Gabonese manganese ore is 70,000 tons, an increase of 100%, and Ghanaian manganese ore is 0 tons, a decrease of 100%. As of November 13, the spot production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.16%, and in Ningxia it increased by 0.25%. The spot profit in the northern region increased by 13.09% [39][45][49]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from the previous week and 9,400 tons from the same period last year. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the domestic economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, with some economic indicators significantly affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. Overseas, the US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the employment market's downward risk has increased. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has significantly decreased. - The overall fundamental data in October was weak, with indicators such as exports, social financing, and social retail sales declining to varying degrees. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, with limited room for further monetary easing this year. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract rose 0.18%, while the 10 - year T2512, 5 - year TF2512, and 2 - year TS2512 contracts fell 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volume of TS and TF contracts increased, while that of T and TL contracts decreased. The open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased [13][30]. - **Performance of Underlying Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds rose by 0.25 - 1.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y yields fell by 0.4bp and 0.6bp to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively [9]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In October, the expansion of domestic demand policies continued to show results. CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 2.1% year - on - year. The State Council issued measures to promote private investment. The cumulative social financing scale in the first ten months increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year. From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62%, social retail sales increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points [33][34]. - **Overseas News**: From October 1 to 25, the US private sector lost 45,000 jobs. The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October, and the economic loss caused by the shutdown was estimated at $15 billion per week [35][101]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spread**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and between 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year, and between 5 - year and 10 - year contract spreads widened. - **Near - far Month Spread**: The near - far month spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, and 5 - year contracts narrowed, while that of the 2 - year contract widened slightly [43][49][60]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short position of the top 20 positions in the T contract decreased slightly [66]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of treasury bonds weakened, with 1 - 7Y yields rising by 1.5 - 3.0bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields rising by 1.8bp and 1.4bp to 1.81% and 2.16% respectively [70]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 148.1511 billion yuan, the total repayment was 99.4987 billion yuan, and the net financing was 48.6524 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0825, up 11 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and on - shore RMB widened. - **US Bond Yield and VIX**: The 10 - year US bond yield fluctuated, and the VIX index rose significantly. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Outlook**: In October, domestic economic growth continued to slow down, with some economic indicators affected by the external environment. The injection of 50 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may boost investment in the fourth quarter, and the annual economic growth target of 5% is expected to be achieved. - **Overseas Outlook**: The US government shutdown ended, but there may be a lack of some employment and inflation data in October. The employment market's downward risk increased, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December decreased significantly. - **Overall Outlook**: The economic data in October was weak, inflation rebounded slightly, and the economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, with limited room for further monetary easing. In the short - term, interest rates may fluctuate within a narrow range [101][102].

Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of October, M2 growth rate was 8.2%, down from 8.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points[1] - M1 growth rate was 6.2%, down from 7.2%, a decline of 1 percentage point[1] - The M1-M2 gap widened to -2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] Deposit Dynamics - Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 770 billion yuan[12] - Non-financial enterprise deposits fell by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 355.3 billion yuan[12] - Fiscal deposits increased by 720 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.8 billion yuan[12] - Non-bank deposits rose by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan[12] Credit and Financing - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan[3] - Social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 432.1 billion yuan, with a month-end growth rate of 8.5%[8] - Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan[5] Economic Outlook - The central bank indicated that the most significant pressure points may have passed, suggesting a potential decrease in the likelihood of rate cuts in the fourth quarter[15] - The cumulative excess savings of households since 2020 is estimated at approximately 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing shifts in deposit behavior[14]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with urban areas rising by 0.3% and rural areas declining by 0.2%[12] - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, while non-food prices increased by 0.9%[12] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024, indicating steady demand growth[15] Group 2: PPI Trends - The producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[14] - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise in 2025[20] - Key industries such as black metal mining and coal mining saw price declines narrow or recover, indicating ongoing improvement in PPI[22] Group 3: Policy Implications - The low CPI and PPI levels create room for more aggressive macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing[5] - Continuous improvement in industrial product prices suggests a stable economic recovery trend[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[6]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macro environment has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality, with the guarantee of civilian heating energy taking precedence over safety production work in mid - November, affecting the market sentiment. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro**: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement spot - house sales. The central bank's RMB loan balance reached 270 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock reached 437 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in home - buying continued to decline [7]. - **Overseas**: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The current iron - water output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract 2601 is above the 60 - day average, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: The NDRC aims to stabilize energy production and supply. The market has shifted from strong expectations and weak reality to weak expectations and weak reality. The decline in crude steel production and poor real - estate investment data mean that coke profits have limited room for significant improvement. The main price of coking coal futures is expected to oscillate between 1130 - 1350, and the main price of coke futures between 1630 - 1850 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The contract holding volume increased by 1233 lots, and the coke monthly spread increased by 13 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged, and the screw - coke ratio increased by 0.10 points [9][13][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 13, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. As of November 14, the coke basis was - 106.0 yuan, an increase of 90.5 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coal Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.3%, an increase of 2.5%. The daily output of raw coal was 192.0 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 434.6 million tons, an increase of 15.3 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 75.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 165.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons [30]. - **Coal Washing Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants was 37.4%, a decrease of 0.18%. The daily output of clean coal was 27.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons, and the clean coal inventory was 300.8 million tons, an increase of 5.9 million tons [30]. - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, a decrease of 0.74%. The daily output of coke was 50.14 million tons, a decrease of 0.52 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton [34]. - **Steel Mills**: The daily output of iron water was 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons compared with last week. As of November 14, 2025, the total coke inventory was 850.19 million tons, a decrease of 5.45 million tons compared with the previous period, and an increase of 8.63% compared with the same period last year [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory decreased. The inventory of 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.01 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 622.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.24 million tons, and the available days of coke were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days [41][43]. - **Exports**: From January to September, the cumulative coke exports were 549 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, and the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [47]. 4. Fundamental Data Charts - **Real Estate**: In October 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.70% month - on - month. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 139.51 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.43% [50][51]. - **City - Tier Breakdown**: As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities was 39.32 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.46%. The commercial housing transaction area in second - tier cities was 72.74 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 35.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.04% [56].

尽管美国联邦政府"停摆"结束，但美股投资者的担忧情绪仍无法消散。 值得注意的是，美联储官员们偏"鹰"派的讲话，并非令人感到非常意外。毕竟在10月货币政策会议后的 新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔就曾表示，美联储12月降息并非板上钉钉。对于未来货币政策怎么 走，美联储内部的分歧很大，有部分官员认为，需要等待一下再行动。 在10月的货币政策会议上，美联储决定降息25个基点。但根据货币政策决议声明，对于降息25个基点的 决定，美联储内部存在分歧。其中，美联储理事米兰主张一次性降息50个基点以更快放松政策，而堪萨 斯城联储行长施密德则认为不应该降息。 此外，对于美联储来说，缺少关键的经济数据，也增加了其调整货币政策路径的难度。鲍威尔在10月货 币政策会议后曾表示，由于政府持续"停摆"令经济数据缺失，决策者可能会更加谨慎行事。可以想象政 府"停摆"可能会影响12月货币政策会议，不知道在那之前会得到什么数据。 11月13日，美股三大股指全线收跌，标普500指数下跌1.66%，报收于6737.49点；纳斯达克指数下跌 2.29%，报收于22870.36点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1.65%，报收于47457.22点。 美股大跌 ...

Core Insights - Recent months have seen weak credit performance from both enterprises and households, with the central bank downplaying the focus on loan quantity targets [1] - The pressure to meet annual economic targets is easing, shifting policy focus towards the implementation and observation of existing tools rather than urgent new stimulus [1] - The introduction of new policy financial tools is expected to gradually support enterprise loans, while the Ministry of Finance has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments to stabilize social financing in the last two months of the year [1] Group 1 - The central bank has indicated a reduced emphasis on loan quantity targets, suggesting that social financing and monetary indicators will be used to gauge policy effectiveness [1] - Despite low credit growth, social financing and monetary growth rates remain stable, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - The urgency for new incremental stimulus measures is decreasing, with expectations for further policy deployment in the coming year [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next year, continued monetary policy easing is necessary to improve demand and price expectations, with room for further adjustments in mortgage rates, deposit rates, and policy rates [2] - As of the end of September, the weighted average interest rate for new personal mortgages has only decreased by 3 basis points to 3.06%, highlighting the need for further reductions in both existing and new mortgage rates due to ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for October indicates a continued decline in credit growth, while social financing and M2 growth remain relatively high, reflecting strong financial support for the real economy [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.07 trillion and a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, leading to a loan growth rate of 6.5%, the lowest on record [6][7]. - The total social financing scale at the end of October was 437.72 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [8]. - M2 growth was 8.2% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 grew by 6.2% year-on-year [3][4]. Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - The M1-M2 spread was 2%, indicating a solid trend of funds being converted into demand deposits, reflecting good activity in corporate operations and personal consumption [4][5]. - The structure of financing is shifting, with non-loan financing methods now accounting for over half of the total social financing increment, indicating a diversification in corporate financing channels [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There may be a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and potential interest rate reductions by the central bank before the end of the year, aimed at directing financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation and small enterprises [10].