Group 1 - Precious metals prices stabilized and rebounded after a significant drop, with international spot gold rising to $4100.420 per ounce, an increase of 0.45%, and spot silver reaching $50.863 per ounce, up 0.68% [1] - U.S. stock index futures opened lower but recovered, with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures turning positive [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December dropped to 44.4%, down from over 70% previously, following comments from Fed officials [1] Group 2 - The decline in interest rate cut expectations, combined with waning enthusiasm for the Trump administration's support of cryptocurrencies and a cooling tech stock rally, led to a significant drop in the cryptocurrency market [1] - Bitcoin fell below the $95,000 mark, briefly dipping below $93,000, erasing over 30% of its gains since the beginning of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has increased due to weak private sector employment data in the U.S., leading to a rise in international gold prices, which briefly surpassed $4200 per ounce and recorded a weekly increase of over 2% [1] Group 1 - Weak private sector employment data in the U.S. has contributed to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1] - International gold prices experienced a significant increase, surpassing $4200 per ounce [1] - The weekly increase in gold prices was over 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that despite the rebound of the US dollar index since October, the RMB exchange rate has shown strong resilience. [1] International Balance of Payments - In the third quarter of this year, China's exports to non-US economies performed well, supporting export performance and leading to a rebound in the current account surplus. [1] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China showed a quarter-on-quarter decline, while outbound direct investment accelerated compared to the second quarter. [1] - There has been significant outflow of foreign capital from bond holdings, indicating increased volatility in capital flows within securities accounts. [1] Future Outlook - The pace of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains a key short-term factor influencing the US dollar index. [1] - In the fourth quarter, China's export growth is expected to decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis, which may weaken the current account's support for the RMB exchange rate. [1] - However, policies related to investment and consumption are gradually being implemented, and the central bank's stable exchange rate policy is expected to maintain a balanced approach, leading to a gradual alignment of the RMB exchange rate towards the midpoint. [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases in the U.S. after the government shutdown, particularly the non-farm payroll data for September, which is expected to influence market sentiment and interest rate expectations [1][3][12] - The article highlights the significance of earnings reports from major companies, specifically Nvidia in the U.S. and Xiaomi in Hong Kong, as they hold substantial weight in their respective markets [1][3][12] - Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region are noted as a factor that could impact institutional investors' decisions, particularly foreign capital [1][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent decline in the market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has fallen below 50%, primarily due to the government shutdown and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3][12] - It presents the performance of various asset classes, indicating that global risk assets have entered a period of volatility following the Fed's rate cuts, with specific reference to the S&P 500 and Hang Seng Tech Index [5][10][14] - The article mentions the contrasting strategies of major investment firms like Bridgewater and Berkshire Hathaway regarding technology stocks, with Bridgewater reducing exposure to individual tech stocks while increasing holdings in broader indices [18][20][23] Group 3 - The article notes significant developments in the A-share market, including a major shareholder's decision to reduce their stake in a prominent company, which is viewed as a neutral event with limited impact on the market [27][29] - It discusses the overall IPO and refinancing environment in the A-share market, suggesting that while current restrictions are in place, a return to normal financing functions is inevitable [33] - The article concludes with a mention of weekly highlights and insights from the investment community, indicating ongoing analysis and strategies in response to market conditions [35][37]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - London gold rose 2.1% to $4084 per ounce, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, inflation expectation was 2.3%, real interest rate slightly rose to 1.83%, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.3, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, the RMB appreciated, and the premium of Shanghai gold increased [2] - Gold price first rose and then fell. Initially, it was pushed up by the expectation of the Fed's balance sheet expansion. However, later, due to factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and the cooling of the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, the gold price remained in a consolidation phase [3] - The easing of the US foreign tariff policy led to a decline in risk aversion [4] - In the short term, the gold price has not escaped the consolidation pattern, and there is a risk of correction. The domestic gold maintains a small premium [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 44.2% week-on-week, the domestic and foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) increased by 493.2% week-on-week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.9% week-on-week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.92% week-on-week, the SPDR ETF holdings increased by 0.19% week-on-week, the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.7% week-on-week, the US dollar index decreased by 0.26% week-on-week, the SOFR increased by 2.3% week-on-week, the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.92% week-on-week, the S&P 500 index increased by 0.1% week-on-week, the VIX volatility index increased by 3.9% week-on-week, the gold cross-market arbitrage trading increased by 1.5% week-on-week, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 1.3% week-on-week [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4%, the oil price fell 0.1%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.3% [18] - The US dollar index fell 0.3%, the US Treasury yield rose to 4.14%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.08%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 19.8 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets mostly rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 0.08%, and developing country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.18% [23] - The real interest rate fluctuated and closed at 1.83%, the gold price rose 2.1%, the spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index fell 0.3% [25] - The euro appreciated 0.47%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.08%, the yen depreciated 0.74%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 1.39% [29] - US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.42%, the UK Treasury yield was 4.5%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.7% [30] - The US dollar index fell 0.31% to 99.3, and most non - US currencies appreciated [31] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings slightly rose to 1044 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, the premium of Shanghai gold increased, gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio decreased to 78 [37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Important data and events include Japan's Q3 GDP, the US November New York Fed manufacturing index, the US November NAHB housing market index, the UK and Eurozone October CPI, the US weekly initial jobless claims, the US November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US September non - farm payrolls, Japan's October CPI, and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The geopolitical issues in the Taiwan Strait have led to a slight increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, and attention should be paid to the impact of this news on the β - drive of gold. After the end of the longest - ever government shutdown in the US, the release of backlogged economic data is awaited, and the key lies in whether the employment reports for October and November can be released in time. Gold is rated as neutral, with a price range of 890 - 980 yuan/gram [6]. - Silver: Although it is difficult for silver to break through the previous high at present, it is only a matter of time before it breaks through new highs. Attention should be paid to the entry opportunity after this correction. Silver is rated as neutral, with a price range of 11400 - 12400 yuan/kilogram [6]. - Copper: The real - world driving force for copper prices is not strong, but the long - term price increase logic is still obvious. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips, and look for opportunities for internal - external reverse arbitrage [86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 in the previous week to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate dropped to 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 99.28 [6]. Price Analysis - Silver: Due to the rebound of the lease rate on Monday and extremely low domestic silver inventories, the market restarted long - position trading. However, it is difficult for silver to break through the previous high at present, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through new highs [6]. - Gold: Geopolitical issues in the Taiwan Strait have increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Attention should be paid to the impact of this news on gold prices, as well as the release of US economic data [6]. Transaction - related Data - Overseas and domestic price differences: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 2.241 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was 2.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference rose to 0.117 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was 0.58 dollars/ounce. The domestic gold and silver price differences were also at different levels, with the gold price difference at - 5.22 yuan/gram and the silver price difference at - 25 yuan/gram [12][15][19]. - Month - to - month price differences: The gold month - to - month price difference was 7.92 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range; the silver month - to - month price difference was 67 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [26][30]. - Inventory and position: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.1%; COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14795 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8%. The gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons [39][41][43]. - ETF position: The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 3.65 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 129 tons [51][53]. Copper Market Performance - The copper price rebounded and then fluctuated, with the price range of 85000 - 89000 yuan/ton. The COMEX copper price was about 300 dollars/ton higher than the LME price [82]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The logic of raw material supply shortage continues to weaken. The supply of recycled copper has increased marginally, and the domestic refined copper output has remained at a high level. It is expected that the annual increase will exceed 1.2 million tons [86]. - Demand: The current demand has weakened, but the long - term logic is still strong. The high copper price has suppressed downstream demand, but in the long run, consumption is expected to recover [86]. Transaction - related Data - Volatility: The volatility of SHFE, INE, LME, and COMEX copper prices has declined. The LME copper price volatility is around 8%, and the SHFE copper volatility is around 13% [90]. - Term price differences: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has turned into a premium [92]. - Position: The positions of LME and COMEX copper have increased, while the SHFE copper position has decreased by 0.13 million lots to 55.31 million lots [95]. - Spot premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [103]. - Inventory: The global total inventory has increased, with a significant increase in COMEX inventory [106].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: There is a slight increase in market risk aversion due to geopolitical issues such as the Taiwan Strait situation. The release of backlogged economic data after the end of the US government shutdown may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these factors on gold prices [3]. - Silver: Although there is some pressure for silver to break through the previous high, it is only a matter of time to break through new highs. It is advisable to pay attention to the entry opportunities after this round of corrections [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Price Performance** - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.14% (2 - year 3.62%), and the US dollar index was 99.28 [3]. - Various gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed different degrees of changes, such as the 7.55% increase in the weekly price of Shanghai Silver 2512 [4]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Overseas Spread**: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.241 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 2.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.117 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.58 dollars per ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spread**: The gold futures - spot spread was - 5.22 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 25 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.92 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 67 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16][19][23][28]. - **Inventory and Position Analysis** - **COMEX Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14,795 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 32.8% [37][39]. - **Futures and Exchange Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 82 tons to 822 tons [41]. - **CFTC Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Position**: The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 3.65 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 129 tons [49][51]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales**: Data on US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes are presented, which can reflect the inflation situation and may affect gold prices [68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Information on indicators such as US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates is provided, which are important factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy and gold prices [70][72][73].

北京时间11月14日晚间，贵金属市场全线走低。现货黄金大跌2.69%，报4058.79美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货跌幅更达3.24%，报4058.6美元/盎司。 市场突变 金价这场暴跌来得突然而迅猛。当晚，黄金现货价格一度大跌3.21%，报4051.22美元/盎司；期货黄金跌幅更是达到3.53%，报4046.4美元/盎司。 白银市场遭遇更猛烈抛售，现货白银下跌3.35%，COMEX白银期货暴跌5.28%。这场暴跌迅速波及整个贵金属市场，现货铂金跌超2%，现货钯金跌超 3%。 白银也没能幸免，白银现货跌3.35%，报50.536美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌5.28%，报50.365美元/盎司。 不仅限于金银，整个贵金属市场都被拖累。现货铂金下跌超过2%，NYMEX铂金期货跌幅超过4%；现货钯金下跌超过3%，NYMEX钯金期货跌幅接近 5%。 Anuj Gupta解释道，"黄金和白银的吸引力因为这两个发展而下降"，他预计黄金的弱势短期内还会持续。 流动性危机？ 美国政府的长期停摆原本是金价的支撑因素，但如今这一局面已经结束。 混沌天成期货分析称，"美国政府重新开门落地，市场开始消化因关门而导致的经济风险，以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [8]. Core Views - The demand outlook in the energy storage sector remains positive, driving significant price increases in lithium chemical products [4]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a shift in market sentiment, with expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve becoming more uncertain [12][13]. - The overall market for precious metals is characterized by a strong performance, with gold and silver prices benefiting from geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [12][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, but expectations for a rate cut in December have become more volatile, impacting market confidence [12]. - Gold prices have shown resilience, supported by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, while silver prices have also increased significantly [74]. - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in the A-share and H-share markets [14]. 2. Industrial Metals - The market for copper remains tight, with supply disruptions contributing to price support, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to seasonal demand [15][18]. - The anticipated increase in investment and consumption due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to further support copper prices [18]. - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [18]. 3. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with strong demand from the energy storage sector driving prices higher [19]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase, further supporting price stability [19]. - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [20]. 4. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is showing a mixed outlook, with price increases in raw materials but cautious purchasing behavior from separation enterprises [21][24]. - The market for antimony and tungsten is also experiencing fluctuations, with specific stocks recommended for monitoring [24]. 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [25][26]. - Notable stock performances include Fangyuan Co. with a 34.59% increase and Yunlu Co. with a 14.98% decrease [28]. 6. Valuation - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently valued at a PE ratio of 26.47, with aluminum expected to see valuation increases due to supply constraints and higher green metal value [35].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of November 14, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21.5x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 80th and 41st historical percentiles respectively [2][3] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 12.0x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 65th and 45th historical percentiles [2][3] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.3x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 33rd and 58th historical percentiles [2][3] - The valuation of the real estate, retail, chemical pharmaceuticals, and IT services sectors is above the 85th historical percentile for PE [2][3] - The semiconductor and communication sectors have PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile [2][3] Industry Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain's spot prices continue to decline, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 1.5% while the average price of silicon wafers dropped by 3.3% [2][3] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged by 13.8%, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 140% [2][3] - In October 2025, the retail sales of new energy vehicles grew by 7.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to September [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks in Q3 2025 was 1.52%, a slight increase of 2.5 basis points from Q2 [2][3] - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42%, indicating manageable overall risk despite asset quality differentiation across different business lines [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The sales area of commercial housing from January to October 2025 decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline compared to the previous nine months [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to October 2025 fell by 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline rate also expanding [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs dropped by 1.5%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.9% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to October 2025 grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous nine months [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to October 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure investment declined by 0.1% [2][3] - Excavator sales in October 2025 grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 2.4% [2][3] Cyclical Industries - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.24 per barrel, reflecting a 0.8% increase [2][3] - The price of thermal coal rose by 2.1% to 834 RMB per ton, driven by increased demand due to colder weather [2][3]