商品日报 20250625 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 宏观：金油回吐地缘溢价，国内股市放量上涨 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面：以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，地缘风险继续缓解，推动市场焦点重新转向下 半年美联储降息节奏：①鲍威尔国会听证上表示，当前可"有条件等待"，美联储正在评估 关税对经济的影响，利率政策可延后再决策；②偏鸽官员博斯蒂克表态更偏鹰，称暂无降息 必要，预期年内或仅降息一次、幅度 25BP。资产价格方面，自 6 月 13 日以色列空袭伊朗以 来的油价涨幅已全部回吐，金价回调逾 1%，美股延续强势修复，美债收益率回落至 4.3%， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，关注本周五参议院对"美丽大法案"的关键投票。 国内方面：上证指数重返 3400 点上方，两市成交额回升至 1.45 万亿，风格上北证 50、 创业板、微盘股表现强劲，行业上汽车零部件、金融板块领涨，市场风险偏好继续走强，放 量驱动下股指加速上行。央行公告 6 月 MLF 续作 3000 亿，资金维持宽松，一级市场需求偏 弱、股 ...

Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETF fell by 2.99% in the past two weeks (2025/06/07-2025/06/20) [1] - Thailand and Indonesia markets remain under pressure, while Vietnam shows signs of recovery [1] - Southeast Asia ETF underperformed compared to Japan, Latin America, the United States, and China [1] Country-Specific Performance - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF decreased by 4.70%, underperforming by 1.71 percentage points [2] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF fell by 2.87%, outperforming by 0.13 percentage points [2] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF dropped by 6.41%, underperforming by 3.42 percentage points due to political turmoil and economic concerns [2] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF declined by 1.40%, outperforming by 1.59 percentage points [2] - Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF decreased by 0.48%, outperforming by 2.52 percentage points, with improved market sentiment recently [2] Risk Factors - Risks include macroeconomic downturn and geopolitical uncertainties [3]

文字早评 2025/06/25 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+1.15%，创指+2.30%，科创 50+1.79%，北证 50+3.65%，上证 50+1.16%，沪深 300+1.20%， 中证 500+1.62%，中证 1000+1.92%，中证 2000+2.22%，万得微盘+2.72%。两市合计成交 14146 亿，较上 一日+2920 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、伊朗和以色列已同意在 24 小时之内分阶段 "全面停火"，停火于周二开始，这场"持续 12 天的战 争"将正式结束。 2、央行：将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转型的 政策文件。 3、商务部将组织开展 2025 年千县万镇新能源汽车消费季活动，活动时间为 2025 年 7 月至 12 月。通知 指出，各地要认真落实汽车以旧换新政策，在新能源汽车消费季活动场地内普遍设置汽车以旧换新专区， 更好满足县乡地区群众多样化购车需求。 资金面：融资额+42.24 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+0.30bp 至 1.370%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-0.40bp 至 2.8716 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - The overnight international oil price dropped, with Brent's August contract falling 4.01%. Global oil inventories increased in Q1 and Q2, and the supply-demand imbalance persists. Brent is expected to return to the $57 - $70 per barrel range, and investors can consider shorting at the upper boundary [2]. - Precious metals declined as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Market focus may shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [3]. - LME copper retraced gains, with the LME 0 - 3 month premium dropping to $150. Short positions should be held [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated overnight. Social inventories increased, and there are short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [5]. - Alumina spot trading was scarce, and the futures are in a weak oscillation. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens [7]. - Shanghai zinc's upward movement was driven by short - covering, but downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to remain bearish on rebounds [8]. - Shanghai lead is currently in a state of wait - and - see. A long position can be considered if it breaks through 17,000 [9]. - Shanghai nickel is in a bearish trend, and short positions should be held [10]. - Tin prices oscillated downward. Hold a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts [11]. - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded, but the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The market is expected to remain weakly oscillating [13]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, but the upward drive is limited. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14]. - Steel prices continued to decline at night. Demand expectations are pessimistic, and the market is under pressure [15]. - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Supply is expected to increase, and the market will oscillate in the short term [16]. - Coke prices oscillated. The fourth round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the market will oscillate narrowly [17]. - Coking coal prices oscillated weakly. Production decreased due to safety inspections, and the market will oscillate narrowly and weakly [18]. - Manganese silicon prices' volatility increased. The market is expected to rise in the short term [19]. - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The market is expected to rise in the short term [20]. Group 2: Shipping and Chemicals - The opening of Maersk's W28 voyage cabins at lower prices strengthened the market's pessimistic expectation of falling freight rates. The market lacks positive factors in the short term [21]. - Fuel oil futures fell following the decline in crude oil prices. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound [22]. - The potential increase in fuel oil deduction ratio for asphalt refineries may be negative for the asphalt market. Terminal demand is expected to improve [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are under downward pressure due to increased supply after the easing of geopolitical risks [24]. - Urea demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and exports may be the key to the subsequent market [25]. - Methanol prices dropped due to the easing of the Israel - Iran situation. The market is mainly affected by the macro - situation [26]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to decline as the ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices. Supply pressure is increasing [27]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand are relatively stable [28]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and the supply pressure is high [29]. - PX and PTA prices oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium term [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline. It will oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [31]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. The situation of short - fiber is relatively better [32]. - Glass prices weakened slightly at night. High inventory and weak demand persist [33]. - Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [34]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be bearish in the long term due to high supply pressure [35]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather changes from June to August [36]. - Vegetable oil prices fell following the decline in oil prices. Long - term long positions can be considered on dips [37]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended in the short term [38]. - Domestic soybean prices oscillated. Pay attention to the US soybean new - crop area report at the end of June [39]. - Corn prices continued to decline. The market may oscillate in the short term [40]. - Pig futures prices fluctuated. There is large pressure on future pig supplies [41]. - Egg futures prices continued to fall. Egg production capacity is still being released [42]. - Cotton prices are recommended to be bought on dips. Pay attention to the US cotton planting area report at the end of June [43]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. US sugar is still in a downward trend [44]. - Apple prices are recommended to be shorted. The new - season production is expected to be bearish [45]. - Wood prices oscillated. Supply is tight, but demand is in the off - season [46]. - Pulp prices are recommended to be held in a wait - and - see attitude. Supply is relatively loose [47]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rebounded strongly, and index futures rose. After the cease - fire, the market may refocus on economic and trade negotiations. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48]. - Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [49].

贵金属日报 2025-06-25 贵金属 沪金跌 1.25 %，报 770.00 元/克，沪银跌 1.06 %，报 8672.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.08 %， 报 3336.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.43 %，报 35.89 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.3%，美元指数报 97.93 ； 市场展望： 昨日美联储主席鲍威尔就货币政策在国会作证词，其对于降息表态相对谨慎。同时海外地缘政 治风险有所消退，金银价格短线面临利空压制。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，若美国通胀水平及劳动力市场表现强劲，则可能推迟降息。绝大部分 政策制定者认为今年晚些时候降息是合适的。但鲍威尔同时表明未来的利率路径有多种，若通 胀未如预想般强劲，则建议尽早降息。当前联储未进行降息的原因在于美联储内部及外部的经 济预测都显示通胀在今年将出现显著上升。 但与此同时，昨日公布的美国经济数据表现弱势，美国 6 月谘商会消费者信心指数为 93，低 于预期的 100 以及前值的 98。 海外地缘政治风险方面，美国总统特朗普宣布，伊朗和以色列已达成一致，将进行全面停火。 避险因素对于黄金价格的支撑将有所弱化。 ...

首席点评：以伊宣布停火 伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与 "以色列及其支持者"停火。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也发表 声明称，接受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示，美联储目前处于 有利位置，不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。国新办举行新闻发布会 介绍，9月3日上午，北京天安门广场将举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大 会，包括检阅部队。央行公告称，将于6月25日开展3000亿元MLF操作。本月MLF净投放达到1180亿 元，为连续第4个月加量续作。海外美股上涨，美债收益率回落，国内夜盘原油能化、黑色板块下跌。 重点品种：原油、铜、集运欧线 原油：夜盘油价下跌 9%以上。美国总统特朗普在Truth Social上表示，以色列和伊朗已完全达成一致， 将会有一个完全和彻底的停火。（从现在开始大约6个小时，当以色列和伊朗已经结束并完成他们正在 进行的最后任务！）在12小时后，战争将被视为结束。受此影响地缘风险溢价大幅挤出市场。俄罗斯表 示，全球主要石油生产商组成的OPEC+集团可能将增产计划较原定时间提前约一年实现。 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant decline due to the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with prices dropping over 8% in a single day, effectively reversing gains made since June 13 [1][2][3] Oil Price Movement - On June 23, international oil prices fell sharply after initial increases due to heightened geopolitical risks, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $6.61 to $67.23 per barrel (down 8.95%) and Brent crude oil futures falling by $6.36 to $70.65 per barrel (down 8.26%) [2] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, oil prices continued to decline, nearly erasing all gains from the previous weeks [1][3] Impact on Oil and Shipping Stocks - The oil and shipping sectors in the A-share market faced significant losses on June 24, with companies like Shandong Molong and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting their daily limit down [1][4] - Prior to the decline, oil-related stocks had surged, with Shandong Molong experiencing a nearly 95.44% increase from June 13 to June 23 [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the easing of geopolitical tensions will shift market focus back to fundamental and macroeconomic drivers, with expectations of oil prices stabilizing in the $60-$65 per barrel range for Q3, but facing potential downward pressure in Q4 [6] - The market is also influenced by OPEC's continued production increases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent predictions from multiple authoritative institutions suggest that gold prices may exceed $4,000 per ounce due to a confluence of factors, including geopolitical tensions and changes in the global monetary system [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalating Israel-Iran tensions, have led to a sustained increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - The normalization of geopolitical risks has made the demand for gold a long-term theme, with recent events like the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities further exacerbating the situation [2]. Group 2: Monetary System Changes - The deep transformation of the global monetary system, particularly the anticipated shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is putting the U.S. dollar's credit system to the test [2]. - Central banks around the world are increasingly accumulating gold reserves, with 2023 witnessing the second-highest level of gold purchases by central banks in history, providing solid support for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Financial Attributes of Gold - Gold's role as an important investment tool has been reinforced by the development of financial derivatives such as futures and ETFs, which significantly amplify the leverage effect of capital [2]. - The volatility of gold prices has increased, but the overall trend remains upward due to these financial dynamics [2]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - For ordinary investors, the current gold market presents both opportunities and risks, with a recommendation to increase gold asset allocation to hedge against systemic risks [6]. - It is crucial for non-professional investors to avoid excessive participation in derivative trading due to the amplified volatility of gold [6]. - The fundamental factors influencing long-term gold price trends include actual interest rates and the direction of the U.S. dollar, with a focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [6].

Core Viewpoint - Germany and Italy are considering repatriating their gold reserves due to distrust in the U.S. as a custodian and rising geopolitical risks [1][4][10] Group 1: Gold Reserves and Custodianship - Germany and Italy hold the second and third largest gold reserves globally, with 3,352 tons and 2,452 tons respectively, relying heavily on the New York Federal Reserve for storage [4] - Approximately 37% of Germany's gold, around 1,236 tons, is stored in the U.S., reflecting historical reliance on the U.S. as a key gold trading hub [4][15] - Recent geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. policy unpredictability have sparked public debates in Europe about the safety of storing gold abroad [4][8] Group 2: Political Support for Repatriation - In Germany, there is growing political support across the spectrum for repatriating gold, with calls for a reassessment of the safety of storing gold overseas [8][10] - The European Taxpayers Association has urged German and Italian authorities to reconsider their dependence on the Federal Reserve for gold storage [10] Group 3: Central Bank Trends - A recent World Gold Council survey indicates that 95% of respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018 [1][13] - About 7% of central banks plan to increase domestic gold storage, the highest level since the pandemic began, driven by concerns over access to gold in crisis situations [13][14] - The trend of repatriating gold is gaining momentum, with countries like India and Nigeria also moving to store gold domestically [13][15] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Gold Demand - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, following the dollar, due to rising geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [15] - Since January, gold prices have increased by 30%, doubling over the past two years, as global uncertainty drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [15][16] - The sentiment among central banks is strong, with many viewing gold as a hedge against inflation and a reliable asset during crises [15][16]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Gas, specifically focusing on crude oil and LNG markets - **Geopolitical Context**: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, continue to significantly impact global oil markets. The potential for disruptions in oil production and exports from Iran, as well as the risk of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, remains a critical concern, with estimates suggesting that such a blockade could disrupt 27% of global oil shipping volumes [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: The recent geopolitical tensions have led to short-term spikes in oil prices, but the overall trend indicates a potential return to a price range of $57 to $70 per barrel, especially if a ceasefire agreement is reached [1][17]. - **OPEC+ Production Strategy**: OPEC+ has entered a production increase phase since April, but actual output has been lower than expected. The anticipated supply growth from non-OPEC countries may be revised upwards, but long-term capital expenditure constraints could lead to a slowdown in supply growth post-2028 [11][12]. - **Global Oil Demand**: Global oil demand growth expectations have been downgraded due to trade disputes and economic uncertainties, with a projected surplus of nearly 1 million barrels per day for the year [1][13][15]. - **LNG Market Trends**: The global LNG capacity is expected to increase significantly from 2025 to 2027, with the U.S. playing a dominant role in exports. However, demand in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, is showing signs of weakness [4][30][31]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of U.S. Sanctions**: U.S. sanctions have had a diminishing effect on Middle Eastern oil supplies, as countries have adapted to restore imports despite sanctions [7]. - **Historical Context of Oil Price Fluctuations**: Historical analysis shows that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to shorter cycles of price increases, with significant price hikes typically lasting less than four months since the 1990s [6]. - **Natural Gas Supply Vulnerabilities**: The natural gas supply chain is more fragile than that of oil, with Qatar facing significant risks due to its shared gas fields with Iran. This vulnerability could lead to heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical events [4][36]. - **Market Inventory Trends**: Global oil inventories have been accumulating since the beginning of the year, indicating a supply surplus. This trend is expected to continue, with OPEC+ production increases further loosening market balances [15][16]. - **Future Price Projections**: The Brent crude price is expected to face upward pressure primarily from geopolitical risks, but the fundamental supply-demand dynamics limit significant price increases beyond $70 per barrel [16][17]. Conclusion The oil and gas industry is currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, production strategies from OPEC+, and evolving demand dynamics. The interplay between these factors will be crucial in determining future price movements and market stability.