Macro Strategy - The report anticipates a decline in loan demand for July and stable growth in social financing [1] - The geopolitical situation and rising interest rate expectations have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in US stock prices [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.7 basis points to 4.283% due to weak auction results reflecting soft market demand [1] Fixed Income Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of non-ETF component bonds in the Sci-Tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds due to their higher yield and credit spread compared to ETF components [2] - It notes that 14.79% of the non-ETF component bonds have a credit spread exceeding 40 basis points, indicating potential for yield compression [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a longer-lasting impact compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on high-quality development rather than large-scale demand-side stimulus [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Guodian Measurement (002967) is recommended for its AI chip localization and high-end PCB expansion, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 4.0/4.5/5.2 billion [9] - Aisheng Co., Ltd. (600732) has shown a significant increase in shipments and profitability, with revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 3.8/15.6/24.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 107%/307%/60% [10] - Yanjing Beer (000729) continues to perform well with a focus on its U8 product line, with profit forecasts adjusted to 16.03/19.26/22.74 billion for 2025-2027 [11] - Gole Technology (002241) is expanding its AR capabilities through investment in Micro-LED technology, with profit forecasts adjusted to 34/44 billion for 2025-2026 [13] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) is expected to see rapid revenue growth driven by its IP strategy, with profit forecasts raised to 100.3/144.9/182.9 billion for 2025-2027 [14]

7月份，"反内卷"呼声愈演愈烈，引发市场对多个品种供给侧改革的强烈预期，助力相关期货品种价格 快速上涨。玻璃作为主要建材品种，也在十大重点行业稳增长领域之中，7月主力合约盘面上涨幅度最 高达36%，位列前茅。但由于缺乏具体措施落地，叠加市场"反内卷"情绪有所降温，盘面出现快速回 落。截至8月8日，2509合约收盘价为1063元/吨，较最高点1370元/吨下跌307元/吨，下跌幅度为22.4%。 从现货价格来看，由期货上涨叠加社会库存偏低引发的投机性补库支撑现货价格上涨，但涨幅不及期货 盘面。在期货价格下跌后，期现商低价出售手中货源冲击玻璃厂价格，导致市场进入消化中下游货源阶 段。近期部分区域厂家库存快速增加，价格再次回落。截至8月8日，沙河市场大板价格为1181元/吨， 基差为118元/吨。 与7月初中央财经委员会第六次会议提出的"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退 出"相比，7月30日中央政治局会议删除了"低价"二字，改为"依法依规治理企业无序竞争"，同时将"推 动落后产能有序退出"调整为"推进重点行业产能治理"。市场期待的供给侧强力改革预期骤然降温，且 浮法玻璃基本面没有实质性的改善，盘面急 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the photovoltaic industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The current round of anti-involution in the photovoltaic sector has shown initial effectiveness, with a clearer direction for supply-demand improvement and beta recovery. The market is expected to continue upward momentum due to low holdings and valuations, alongside subsequent catalysts [4][8][22] - The core drivers for the ongoing photovoltaic market are the strengthening and elevation of price expectations, which can be tracked through two main aspects: progress on production/sales restrictions and the transmission of terminal component prices [9][40] Summary by Sections Initial Effects of Anti-Involution - The anti-involution actions in the photovoltaic sector have begun to yield initial results, with significant price increases observed in silicon materials and wafers. The prices of batteries and components have also risen, although full transmission of these price increases will take time [7][18] Clear Direction and Low Valuations - This is the second round of anti-involution for the photovoltaic industry, with a more mature and pragmatic approach compared to the first round. The political backing is stronger, and the timeline for achieving goals is clearer, increasing the likelihood of successful implementation [8][25] Potential Production and Sales Restrictions - Future actions may include production and sales restrictions to further optimize supply-demand dynamics. The strictness of these measures is expected to exceed last year's quota system, with regulatory oversight mechanisms in place to ensure compliance [9][40] Component Price Trends - The price of components is a critical indicator to monitor. Price increases in components suggest successful price transmission within the industry, which is essential for the recovery of upstream profitability. The acceptance of price increases may vary between domestic and international markets [10][40] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The photovoltaic sector is currently at a relatively low valuation, with significant room for growth. The holdings in the sector have decreased, indicating a potential for upward movement in stock prices as the anti-involution measures take effect [29][34]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the historical economic development of Japan, particularly post-World War II, and its implications for current economic conditions in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. Historical data on Japan's economy is challenging to obtain, especially from before the 1990s, but some insights have been gathered from various databases like Bloomberg and CEIC [1][2] 2. A chart was created to illustrate five key data sets regarding Japan's economy, including housing prices, household leverage, savings growth, and demographic changes [3] 3. Post-WWII, Japan experienced rapid economic recovery due to U.S. support and external demand, particularly during events like the Korean War, leading to significant growth from 1955 to 1973 [4] 4. Economic structure, rather than interest rates, is a primary determinant of economic performance; Japan's interest rates were appropriate given its growth during the 1960s [5] 5. Japan's industrialization reached a mature stage by the 1970s, but it lagged in high-tech sectors compared to the West [6] 6. The 1970s oil crisis significantly impacted Japan, revealing vulnerabilities in its reliance on external demand and leading to a shift towards internal demand stimulation [7][8] 7. Japan's government implemented policies to boost domestic demand and initiated supply-side reforms in response to the energy crisis [9][10] 8. The government also supported innovation in high-tech industries, which laid the foundation for Japan's electronics sector in the following decades [12][13] 9. Japan's heavy industry faced environmental challenges, prompting a shift towards energy efficiency and renewable energy sources in the late 1970s [14][15] 10. The economic transformation in Japan during the 1970s and 1980s is often cited as a model for other countries, including China, facing similar transitions [16][17] 11. The service sector grew significantly during Japan's economic transition, but it posed risks for sustainable income growth compared to manufacturing [17][18] 12. The relationship between income growth and debt levels is critical; a divergence can lead to economic instability [18] 13. Japan's real estate bubble in the late 1980s was fueled by low interest rates and speculative investments, leading to a significant economic downturn [19][20] 14. The first and second real estate bubbles in Japan had different underlying conditions, with the second bubble being more problematic [20][21] 15. The rapid urbanization and labor migration in Japan supported economic growth and real estate demand, but also led to demographic challenges [22][23] 16. The government’s efforts to stimulate internal demand in the 1970s resulted in a housing market boom, which was unsustainable [24][25] 17. The tightening of monetary policy in the early 1970s aimed to cool the overheating economy and control inflation, leading to a decline in real estate prices [26][27] 18. The economic slowdown from the mid-1980s onwards revealed structural issues in Japan's economy, despite maintaining a positive growth rate [27][28] 19. The second real estate bubble's burst was attributed to a combination of domestic and international economic pressures, including the Plaza Accord [32][33] 20. The long-term effects of the real estate bubble and subsequent economic stagnation have shaped Japan's current economic landscape, including low growth and high debt levels [34][35] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The historical context of Japan's economic policies provides valuable lessons for current economic strategies in China, particularly regarding the balance between external and internal demand [4][8] 2. The transformation of Japan's economy highlights the importance of innovation and technology in sustaining growth, which is relevant for other developing economies [12][13] 3. The challenges faced by Japan in managing its service sector growth and income distribution can serve as a cautionary tale for other nations undergoing similar transitions [17][18] 4. The demographic shifts and urbanization trends in Japan have long-term implications for economic stability and growth, which are pertinent to current global economic discussions [22][23]

8月10日零时钟声敲响，宁德时代位于江西宜春的枧下窝矿区全面停止采矿作业。据媒体报道，该矿区 在采矿证到期未获续期后进入无限期停产状态。此消息一经传出后，碳酸锂期货价格11日开盘应声涨 停，期货市场的情绪又被点燃，宁德时代A股当日剧烈震荡，顽强收涨0.07%，港股则明显更为坚挺， 低开高走后收盘涨幅近2.5%。 对于此消息，宁德时代11日上午也在互动平台正式回应：公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后，确 已暂停了开采作业，并称"公司正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生 产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大"。 宁德时代纠结的股价反应，则折射出市场的疑虑——在"反内卷"政策主导新能源上游资源配置的背景 下，这一纸停产通知究竟是无奈之举，还是一场精心设计的产业棋局？ 不可否认的是，合规困境与成本压力为此次停产事件提供了逻辑支撑。合规方面，宁德时代枧下窝矿区 采矿证到期前未能完成续期，直接原因是宜春市自然资源局要求辖区内8家锂矿企业必须在9月30日前提 交储量核实报告并解决矿种审批合规问题。更深的背景则是2024年中央环保督察组对当地锂云母开采污 染的点名批评，使得地方政府在矿权审批上更审慎。 ...

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The "anti - involution" policy is compared with the supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017. Both aim to address supply - demand mismatches through capacity reduction, but there are differences in background, industries covered, policy measures, implementation cycles, and outcomes [14]. - The "anti - involution" policy is expected to have a longer implementation cycle and a more profound impact. It focuses on long - term mechanism building and is likely to achieve more sustainable and healthy results [50]. - Regarding the impact on the bond market, the "anti - involution" policy is unlikely to change the long - term bullish trend of the bond market. In the short term, there is adjustment pressure on bond interest rates due to a slight rebound in commodity prices, but a demand - driven bearish trend is unlikely. In the long run, if the policy can increase corporate profits and drive up factor prices, it may lead to an upward inflection point in bond interest rates [51][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Anti - involution" Policy Context Review - In 2024, the Central Political Bureau Meeting first proposed "preventing 'involution - style' vicious competition." On July 1, 2025, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission incorporated "anti - involution" into the national economic governance framework, accelerating policy implementation. Subsequently, various industries issued implementation opinions, such as the China Cement Association, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the photovoltaic industry, and 33 construction central enterprises [10][11]. 3.2 "Anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform Comprehensive Comparison 3.2.1 Background Motivation - Supply - side reform in 2015 was due to the transition from high - speed to medium - high - speed economic growth, with severe over - capacity in traditional industries like coal and steel, and diminishing marginal effects of demand - side stimulus [15]. - The "anti - involution" policy since 2022 is because PPI has been in the negative range again, and over - capacity is more concentrated in emerging industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and new - energy vehicles. "Involution" is a structural and institutional over - capacity, threatening the long - term health of industries [17][21]. 3.2.2 Key Industries - The "anti - involution" policy covers a wide range of industries, including traditional industries related to real - estate and infrastructure, emerging industries, and downstream consumer - related industries. The policy focuses on the "new three items" (new energy, semiconductors, high - end equipment) [24]. - The supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017 focused on upstream raw - material industries, mainly addressing over - capacity in traditional industries led by state - owned enterprises. In contrast, the "anti - involution" policy is more extensive, emphasizing emerging industries in the middle and lower reaches, with more private enterprises involved [28]. 3.2.3 Policy Measures - The supply - side reform in 2016 - 2017 used "three removals, one reduction, and one supplement" as the main policy tools, featuring administrative means, quantified targets for key industries, supplementary measures, and demand - expansion policies such as shantytown renovation monetization [34]. - The "anti - involution" policy currently mainly uses market - based means such as industry self - discipline, with milder administrative intervention and an emphasis on institutional building. Its ultimate goal is to build a new development pattern and promote high - quality development, and it is unlikely to be accompanied by large - scale demand - expansion policies [39][40]. 3.2.4 Policy Implementation Cycle and Outcomes - The supply - side reform had a short implementation cycle of about 2 years, with significant and rapid results. It led to a substantial increase in capacity utilization, commodity prices, and industrial profits, and had a "first positive, then negative" impact on interest - rate bonds [42][43]. - The "anti - involution" policy may have a longer implementation cycle. It focuses on long - term mechanism building and is expected to achieve more sustainable and healthy results through market - based and legal means [50]. 3.3 "Anti - involution" Impact on the Bond Market Outlook - The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on interest - rate bonds is mainly transmitted through factors such as expectations, commodity prices, monetary policy, and the demand side. Currently, the demand side is weak, and monetary policy remains loose [51]. - It is predicted that the year - on - year PPI will gradually recover to around - 1.5% within the year but will not turn positive immediately. In the short term, there is adjustment pressure on bond interest rates due to a slight rebound in commodity prices, but a trend - driven bear market is unlikely. In the long run, if the policy can increase corporate profits and drive up factor prices, it may lead to an upward inflection point in bond interest rates [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **real estate industry** and its recovery, along with insights into the **construction** and **metals** sectors, particularly focusing on **small metals** and **T metals**. Real Estate Industry Insights - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through supply-side measures such as controlling new land supply and revitalizing existing land and properties, with a focus on acquiring existing residential properties. A total of **4.4 trillion yuan** in special bonds will be issued, an increase of **500 billion yuan** from last year, with **500 billion yuan** allocated for land acquisition and existing property purchases [2][3]. - In January and February, key cities saw new home transaction areas increase by **5%** and second-hand home transactions rise by **29%**, indicating a recovery trend from the previous year [3][4]. - Future development directions in the real estate sector include focusing on core city developers and property management companies, as well as quality commercial real estate firms benefiting from domestic demand policies [5]. New City Holdings (新城控股) Analysis - New City Holdings has a strong financial position with **558 billion yuan** in interest-bearing debt, manageable through rental income from shopping malls, indicating controlled debt pressure [6][9]. - The company has a competitive edge in third and fourth-tier cities, with its May Square showing a **11%** increase in same-store rental growth and a high occupancy rate of **97.9%** [6][11]. - The company’s light-asset construction and management business is expected to grow significantly, with a **63%** increase in rental income from May Square [12]. Construction Industry Insights - The government’s fiscal policy is set to increase special bond issuance to **14.4 trillion yuan**, focusing on major projects, which will stimulate the construction industry and related sectors like steel and cement [7][8]. - Investment opportunities in the construction sector are identified in infrastructure and supply-side reforms, recommending major state-owned enterprises and companies involved in technological upgrades and high-energy acquisitions [8]. Metals Market Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, currently at **20%**, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Prices are expected to continue rising [14]. - T metals face severe supply constraints, with a potential **70%** drop in output from a major Russian mine, leading to a projected **20%** increase in demand across various sectors, including military and renewable energy [15][16]. - Current prices for T metals have reached **420,000 yuan/ton**, with expectations for further increases due to persistent supply shortages [17]. Additional Insights - The bio-aviation fuel sector is projected to see rapid growth, driven by mandatory blending requirements in Europe and China, with significant demand expected by **2025** [22][24]. - Companies in the biofuel sector, such as Jia Environmental and Excellence Performance, are highlighted for their growth potential and cost advantages in production [26][27][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the real estate, construction, and metals industries, along with specific company analyses and market trends.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on economic cycles, monetary policy, and supply-side reforms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Cycle Recovery**: The disparity between corporate and household deposit growth is a leading indicator of economic cycles, which has shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months, indicating that the worst economic period may be behind [1][2][16]. 2. **Policy Direction**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the release of existing policy effects rather than introducing new stimulus measures, suggesting a shift away from extraordinary policy reliance [1][4]. 3. **Monetary Policy Shift**: The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is over, with a focus on structural functions rather than broad easing. The large scale of precautionary savings among residents poses challenges for the central bank [1][5][17]. 4. **Impact of Household Savings**: The shift of household deposits towards financial investments has improved market liquidity, but it also presents challenges for the central bank in balancing tightening and easing measures [1][6][7]. 5. **Stock vs. Bond Market Dynamics**: Policies have significantly impacted the stock market, enhancing its attractiveness compared to bonds. Despite economic indicators not showing significant recovery, the stock market has seen an increase in its floating ratio due to policy interventions [1][8][12]. 6. **Supply-Side Reforms**: Current supply-side reforms focus on improving energy efficiency in high-energy-consuming industries and enhancing market competition through legal and market-oriented measures [3][9][10]. 7. **Anti-Competition Policies**: The anti-involution policies are aimed at optimizing market competition and addressing issues like improper scale competition and local protectionism, with a focus on legal frameworks rather than administrative measures [11][22]. 8. **Future Economic Indicators**: The next few months are critical for observing leading economic indicators, which could trigger an earlier shift from bonds to stocks if they show sustained improvement [12][19]. 9. **Consumer Policy Outlook**: Consumer policies in the second half of the year are expected to remain stable, focusing on measures to stabilize retail sales, including subsidies and financial incentives [20][21]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Trends**: A decline in manufacturing investment is anticipated, which historically has led to positive outcomes for PPI, suggesting that a reduction in investment could be beneficial for the economy in the long run [19]. 2. **Household and Corporate Deposit Dynamics**: The current state of household and corporate deposit growth is crucial for understanding future economic pressures and consumer behavior, with a noted historical low in the deposit gap [16]. 3. **Long-Term Economic Adjustments**: The adjustments in monetary policy and economic strategies are expected to lead to upward revisions in economic cycles and price assessments, which could negatively impact bonds while improving equity attractiveness [14][18].