Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysia's palm oil futures may face further downward pressure due to potential slowdown in export growth and concerns about increased production in October. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are likely to continue to decline. Overall, a cautious and bearish view is maintained [1]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 15 - 17 cents per pound. After the National Day holiday, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [2]. Corn - During the period of new corn's concentrated market entry, due to the pressure of phased supply, corn will maintain a weak pattern [3]. Cotton - In the medium term, cotton prices will face pressure when they rise [6]. Meal - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but there is an expected shortage in the first quarter of 2026, which supports the price of M2601. If the purchase of US soybeans continues to be halted, the M2601 contract has support in the range of 2900 - 2950, where long positions can be considered [8]. Pork - In the short term, there are signs of second - fattening and reluctance to sell, but in the medium and long term, the supply pressure of pork will continue to be released, and pig prices are not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies in the futures market [10][11]. Eggs - This week, the egg market is expected to decline in an oscillating manner, with no obvious positive support in the short term [14]. Summary by Category Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On October 10, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8610 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 fell by 0.36% to 8302 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10.79% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9460 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 fell by 1.38% to 9438 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 120% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 10330 yuan/ton, the futures price of OI601 fell by 1.82% to 10061 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 33.17% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with the palm oil's 01 - 05 spread dropping by 18.10% [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.58% to 5496 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar's main contract fell by 0.92% to 16.10 cents per pound [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5800 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.17% to 5810 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 12.87% to 1000 million tons [2]. Corn - **Corn**: On October 10, the price of corn 2511 decreased by 0.61% to 2125 yuan/ton, and the import profit decreased by 2.58% to 377 yuan/ton [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased by 0.08% to 2432 yuan/ton, and the profit of Shandong's starch increased by 40% to 35 yuan/ton [3]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.22% to 13375 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton's main contract decreased by 1.07% to 63.77 cents per pound [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 0.12% to 14630 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.1% to 102.17 million tons, and the import volume increased by 40% to 7 million tons [6]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.37% to 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of M2601 increased by 2000% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2460 yuan/ton, and the basis of RM2601 remained unchanged [8]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract of soybean No. 1 remained unchanged [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of the main contract of live pigs decreased by 2.37% to 11320 yuan/ton, and the price of the 2601 contract decreased by 0.21% to 12140 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in various regions all decreased, with the price in Henan dropping to 11200 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.18% to 154455, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 105.30% to - 152 yuan per head [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On October 10, the price of the 11 - contract of eggs decreased by 2.26% to 2806 yuan/500KG, and the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 2.65% to 3160 yuan/500KG [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the production area decreased by 3.02% to 2.87 yuan per catty, and the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.88% to 4.46 yuan per catty [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.70% to 2.83, and the breeding profit decreased by 33.75% to 2.12 yuan per bird [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - For apples, continuous rainy weather has delayed the concentrated listing of red apples and compressed the acquisition and warehousing time. Good-quality apples are expected to have stable and strong prices with a significant price gap between good and average-quality apples. Attention should be paid to the game between merchants' acquisition mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2][3][4] - For red dates, the new season's red dates are at a critical period. The market has a relatively certain judgment on the production trend, and the fruit quality is better than last year. The futures price may face a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and production changes [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 8,744 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 127 yuan/ton, or 1.47% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade apples in Qixia, Shandong was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 - 1,144, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton. The price of 70 semi-commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 + 856, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market Information - As of October 9, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 67,900 tons. New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed. Due to continuous rainy weather, the coloring in the western producing areas is slow, and the large supply of red apples is delayed compared to last year [2] - In Shandong, the new-season late Fuji apples are mostly waiting to be colored. The coloring is slower than the same period last year, with few red apples and low commodity rates this year. Merchants are cautious in their acquisitions [2] - In Shaanxi, the coloring is slow, and the listing of red apples is limited. Most late Fuji apples are still in the coloring stage and will enter the concentrated trading stage in 5 - 7 days. Merchants are mostly in a wait-and-see mood [2] - In the sales areas, the number of incoming vehicles at the Guangdong Chalong Market fluctuates significantly. The terminal market consumption during the National Day holiday was slightly slower year-on-year. The sales of new-season late Fuji good-quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some backlog in the transit warehouses [2] Market Analysis - New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed this week, but the acquisition and warehousing time is compressed. The sales during and after the Double Festival were average. Good-quality apples' prices are stable and slightly strong, and merchants are cautious in their acquisitions but active in acquiring good-quality apples [3] - Next week, late Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions will be on the market for trading. The price gap between good and average-quality apples will be obvious. If there is a rush to buy good-quality apples, the prices will remain stable and strong, while the prices of average-quality apples may not be strong due to the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Currently, late Fuji apples are being traded sporadically. Due to weather conditions, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. Good-quality apples' prices are expected to be stable and strong, with a significant price gap [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the Red Dates 2601 contract rose slightly. As of October 10, the closing price was 11,145 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 325 yuan/ton, or 3.00% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2024 production season was concentrated at 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The spot price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was CJ01 - 1,645, a week-on-week decrease of 325 [5] Recent Market Information - The new-season red dates are at a critical period between the old and new production seasons. The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the drying period, with good overall growth and are about to be harvested, possibly about a week earlier than last year [6] - Inland merchants have gone to Xinjiang to contract orchards around the National Day holiday. The orchard contracting process in Hotan and Aksu is relatively fast, with the contracting price range at 5.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, and a small amount of high-quality goods priced around 9.00 yuan/kg [6] - The market has a relatively certain judgment on the new-season jujube production trend. The weather is sunny with little rainfall, which is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. The market's concerns about jujube quality have been alleviated, and the jujube quality is better than last year [6] - The arrival volume in the sales areas this week is low. During the National Day holiday, the arrival volume at the Hebei market's parking area was more than 10 vehicles, significantly lower than more than 200 vehicles in the same period last year. Affected by continuous rainfall, there are few merchants looking at and purchasing goods, and the trading atmosphere is light [6] Market Analysis - Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - and peak - seasons and the "alternation of old and new seasons." Grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing areas are about to be harvested, and merchants are starting to contract orchards in small quantities [7] - Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the spot market in the sales areas this week was average, with downstream rigid - demand purchases as the main form. The spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading was a bit light [7] - The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in recent years, and there is still inventory pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] - The jujube production in the 2024 production season was large, and the inventory was high, but the quality was not good. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - depletion, and a production reduction is a normal expectation. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 620,000 tons [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overall, if the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue; otherwise, the red dates' futures prices will face a volatile pattern with limited upward movement and strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to consumption, new - season quality, and production changes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The market is worried about China's soybean supply in Q1 2026 due to the lack of a Sino - US trade consensus. Argentina's zero - tariff policy on agricultural product exports may intensify export competition between North and South America, leading to price drops in both international and domestic markets. Currently, the domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates, which pressured domestic soybean meal prices down in September. Attention should be paid to policy changes as US soybean harvesting accelerates and Brazil's new - season soybean sowing progresses smoothly [3] - In the domestic corn market, the cooler weather this year is conducive to corn storage. New - grain listing and farmers' selling enthusiasm and acquisition situation need attention. As new - season corn has not been massively listed, supply in North and South China is tight, keeping prices firm. However, corn prices may enter a seasonal decline as new - grain supply increases [5] Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2939 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2435 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.58%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 51, up 9; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 39, down 1; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 29, down 1. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 195, up 16 [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2138 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2430 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-1.54%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C11 + 42, down 115; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS11 + 130, up 28 [4] Market Information - Brazil: In September, Brazil's soybean exports were 734.1 million tons, higher than 610.6 million tons in the same period last year, with a daily average export of 33.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.2%. Brazil's corn exports in September were 756.3 million tons, compared to 642.1 million tons in September last year, with a daily average export of 343,776 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.8%. The corn export value reached 1.53 billion US dollars, and the average export price was 202.4 US dollars/ton, a 4.0% increase from the same period last year [2][4] - US: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of old - crop soybeans in the US was 316 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 323 million bushels and 342 million bushels in the same period last year. As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 768,000 tons. As of the week ending October 3, 2024, it was 1.626 million tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 3.031 million tons, compared to 3.555 million tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: Due to the lack of a Sino - US trade consensus, there are concerns about China's soybean supply in Q1 2026. Argentina's policy may intensify competition and lead to price drops. Currently, the domestic supply is sufficient, and oil - mill operating rates are high, pressuring prices down in September. Future policy changes need attention [3] - Corn: The cooler weather is good for storage. New - grain listing and acquisition need attention. Supply in North and South China is tight now, but prices may decline seasonally as new - grain supply increases [5] Strategies - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3][4][5][6]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 苹果稳中有涨，红枣震荡上行 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8633元/吨，较前一日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.19%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1033，较前一日变动-16；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+967，较前一日变动-16。 近期市场资讯，国庆期间西北、山东产区晚富士普遍处于摘袋后上色及红货少量上市阶段，受到连续阴雨影响， 西部产区上色较慢，山东产区部分前期未完成的摘袋工作被迫延迟，红货大量供应时间较去年推迟。山东产区集 中收购时间预计10月15日前后，西部订货客商不多，陕西产区还未进入集中订货期。目前晚熟富士多处于等待上 色阶段，少量红货上市交易，价格高于去年0.5-1.0元/斤不等，少数客商订购，零星交易不成规模，实际参考有限， 继续关注后续上量后价格表现。且需关注连续降雨天气对晚富士上色及质量影响。 市场分析 苹果期价昨日微幅走高，山东栖霞、陕西洛川现货价格持稳，客商拿货意 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: Corn prices are oscillating weakly. During the National Day holiday, the prices in the Northeast decreased, those in North China fluctuated, and those in the sales areas were generally weak. Technically, the November contract of corn hit a new low, and the harvest pressure continues to affect the market, with the arbitrage spread of selling near and buying far narrowing [1]. - Soybean and Two - meal: CBOT soybeans closed down on Thursday. Domestic two - meal prices oscillated higher. The increase in soybean import costs during the holiday provided cost support, but the market is highly watchful due to the loose domestic soybean meal spot and the decline in pig and egg prices [1]. - Oil: BMD palm oil reached a seven - month high. Domestic oils opened higher and oscillated. It is advisable to buy oils on dips and pay attention to the MPOB report on Friday [1]. - Egg: Egg futures and spot prices are oscillating weakly. The increase in egg - laying hen inventory and the seasonal decline in post - holiday demand put pressure on prices [1]. - Pig: Pig prices are oscillating weakly. During the National Day, the prices showed a "not - prosperous in peak season" downward trend. The supply is high, and the demand is weak, and the weak situation is expected to continue [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: During the National Day, the new corn listing in the Northeast increased, and the price decreased. In North China, the price fluctuated due to weather. The supply of deep - processing enterprises was high, and the price decreased. In the sales areas, the price was weak. Technically, the November contract hit a new low, and the arbitrage spread was narrowing [1]. - **Soybean and Two - meal**: CBOT soybeans closed down. Domestic two - meal prices oscillated higher. The increase in import costs provided support, but the market was watchful due to spot supply and demand [1]. - **Oil**: BMD palm oil rose. Domestic oils opened higher and oscillated. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on the MPOB report [1]. - **Egg**: Egg futures and spot prices declined. The increase in inventory and post - holiday demand decline led to weak prices [1]. - **Pig**: Pig futures prices continued to decline. During the National Day, the prices were "not - prosperous in peak season". The supply was high, and the demand was weak, and the weak situation is expected to continue [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Brazil's soybean, bean - meal, and corn exports and planned exports from September 28 to October 11 are provided [3]. - New Hope's pig sales volume in September 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the sales revenue decreased year - on - year [3]. - Russia will set a slightly higher grain export quota from February to June 2026 compared to the same period this year [4]. - Indonesia will implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Diagrams of contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, and others are presented [5][6][7]. - **Contract Basis**: Diagrams of contract basis such as corn, corn starch, and others are presented [13][14][17].

生猪产业期现日报 数据来源: Wind、涌益咨询、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告库端免责声明 免贡声胆 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可乖的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作日何保证。本报 告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考,报告中 的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据比投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其 他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未经广发明货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布,爱制。如引用、刊发,需注 明出处为"广发期货"。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 -375 | 前值 વેર | 涨跌 -470 | 涨跌幅 -494.74% | 单位 | | 主力合约基差 生猪2511 | 11595 | 12352 | -760 | -6.15% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, MPOA estimates Malaysia's September 2025 palm oil production at 1.81 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Analysts predict an average production of 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease. Exports are estimated at 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% increase, and inventory at 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease. Indonesia's plan to implement B50 bio - diesel may raise the palm oil price after the holiday. In the soybean oil market, due to the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations and sufficient US soybean supply, CBOT soybean prices are under pressure, and US soybean oil may follow suit [1]. Meal Products - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated and strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of negotiations, China has not resumed US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December, supporting Brazilian premiums. China's soybean supply is sufficient in Q4 2025 but may be short in Q1 2026. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The M2601 contract is expected to be cautiously bullish in the 2900 - 2950 range [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, Brazil's central - southern sugar production increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, the new sugar season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and after the holiday stocking, the market is quiet. Considering natural disasters, the domestic sugar price is in a relatively undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, and is expected to remain range - bound between 5400 - 5600 [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - During the National Day holiday, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price decreased with the supply. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - October, the price is under pressure due to good harvest expectations and lower production costs. The demand is currently weak, but feed and processing enterprises may replenish inventory seasonally. Corn is expected to remain weak during the concentrated listing period [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the National Day holiday, pig prices dropped significantly, with spot prices below 6 yuan per catty. The pressure on supply will continue to be released in the fourth quarter due to increased出栏 volume and weight gain. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time to show results. The spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy for the futures market is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton prices are oscillating weakly near a six - month low due to the lack of key crop data after the US government shutdown. Domestically, the supply increase and weak demand have put downward pressure on cotton prices. During the National Day holiday, the purchase price of cottonseed stabilized, but the procurement of lint by textile enterprises almost stopped. Overall, the cotton price is expected to remain bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market is expected to have relatively high supply and weak demand. The egg price is likely to continue to decline due to high inventory levels, lack of strong demand after the holidays, and cautious market sentiment [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: From September 29 to 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil dropped from 8400 to 8380 (- 0.24%), the futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8150 to 8140 (- 0.12%), and the basis of Y2601 fell from 250 to 240 (- 4.00%). For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree dropped from 9110 to 9060 (- 0.55%), the futures price of P2601 decreased from 9234 to 9228 (- 0.06%), and the basis of P2601 fell from - 124 to - 168 (- 35.48%). The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil rose from 10200 to 10250 (0.49%), the futures price of OI601 decreased from 10093 to 10044 (- 0.49%), and the basis of OI601 increased from 107 to 206 (92.52%) [1]. - **Inventory and Trade**: Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease in September. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port changed, with the cost increasing by 1.09% and the profit decreasing by 23.89% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 2940, the futures price of M2601 decreased from 2933 to 2928 (- 0.17%), and the basis of M2601 increased from 7 to 12 (71.43%). The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 increased from 2416 to 2421 (0.21%), and the basis of RM2601 decreased from 84 to 79 (- 5.95%) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: China has not resumed US soybean purchases, and Brazil's new soybean supply is expected to increase. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December [2]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: The futures price of SR2601 increased from 5479 to 5493 (0.26%), and SR2605 increased from 5437 to 5458 (0.39%). The ICE raw sugar futures price decreased from 16.64 to 16.32 (- 1.92%). The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged [4]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 12.87% respectively. The cumulative national sugar sales rate increased by 0.74%, and the cumulative Guangxi sugar sales rate increased by 0.70%. The national industrial sugar inventory increased by 5.24%, and the Guangxi industrial sugar inventory decreased by 2.22% [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Price Changes**: The futures price of C2511 decreased from 2159 to 2143 (- 0.74%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased from 2280 to 2240 (- 1.75%), and the basis decreased from 121 to 97 (- 19.83%). The futures price of CS2511 decreased from 2483 to 2468 (- 0.60%), and the basis increased from 77 to 92 (19.48%) [5]. - **Trade and Inventory**: The north - south corn trade profit increased by 47.62%, and the import profit increased by 0.71%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 35.73% [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Price Changes**: The futures price of LH2511 increased from 12295 to 12355 (0.49%), and LH2601 increased from 12785 to 12825 (0.31%). The spot price in Henan decreased from 12550 to 12450, in Shandong from 12850 to 12700, and in Sichuan from 12050 to 11850 [9]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.79%, and the number of sows in stock decreased by 0.10% [9]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: The futures price of CF2605 decreased from 13360 to 13245 (- 0.86%), and CF2601 decreased from 13350 to 13215 (- 1.01%). The ICE US cotton futures price increased from 64.44 to 64.94 (0.78%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased from 14942 to 14860 (- 0.55%) [11]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial cotton inventory decreased by 20.6%, industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, and imports increased by 40%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric decreased, and the export of textile yarn, fabric, and clothing showed different trends [11]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: The futures price of JD11 increased from 3016 to 3038 (0.73%), and JD01 increased from 3352 to 3360 (0.24%). The egg - producing area price decreased from 3.44 to 3.42 (- 0.64%), and the basis decreased from 425 to 381 (- 10.38%) [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased from 4.67 to 4.64 (- 0.64%), and the egg - feed ratio increased from 2.64 to 2.85 (7.95%). The breeding profit increased from - 9.11 to 3.20 (135.13%) [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-09 假日期间外盘变化不大，品种多观望 油脂：等待进一步信息指引，或继续震荡盘整 蛋白粕：多空并存，延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 生猪：节后需求转淡，猪价延续弱势 天然橡胶：外盘波动有限，关注节后盘面情绪 合成橡胶：盘面延续区间震荡 棉花：棉价延续偏弱走势 白糖：糖价预计延续低位震荡整理 纸浆：假日期间无重点变化，纸浆延续弱势格局 双胶纸：假期交投偏弱，节后现货仍有下行压力 原木：弱现实与旺季预计博弈，关注下游需求兑现 【异动品种】 玉米观点：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 信息：根据Mysteel，锦州港平舱价为2300元/吨，环比变化0元/吨。国内 玉米均价2350元/吨，环比变化-2元/吨。主力合约收盘价2178元/吨，环 比变化+0.6%。 逻辑：节日期间，随着新粮逐步放量，价格整体偏弱运 行。锦州港晨间集港量在假期期间维持高位400-700车范围。节日前期， 华北深加工门前早间剩余车量明显增加，节中一度攀升至近1800车高位。 伴随供应增加，锦州港新粮收购价从节前的2200元以上快速跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [2] Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to remain weak in the medium - term due to increasing new - grain supply after the National Day holiday, slow harvest progress in North China affected by weather, and low pre - holiday purchasing enthusiasm in the sales area [1]. - Soybean meal prices are affected by the harvest progress in the US and Brazil, with sufficient domestic supply during the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Oil prices are affected by factors such as export data and inventory changes. With sufficient domestic inventory after the festival, it is suggested to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - Egg prices are under short - term supply pressure, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the market. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday and pay attention to demand and capacity data [1]. - Pig prices continue to decline due to abundant supply. Although the pre - holiday demand increases, the supply still suppresses the price. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position and focus on consumption and capacity changes [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Monday, the November corn contract opened flat and closed lower. New - season corn in Liaoning and eastern Heilongjiang has a good supply, and prices are falling. After the National Day, more corn will be on the market, and prices are hard to improve in the short - term. North China's prices are stable with minor adjustments, and the sales area's prices are mainly stable. Technically, positions are decreasing before the holiday, and the medium - term outlook is weak [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to expanded harvest and concerns about export demand. US soybean inspection was 59.4 tons, and the harvest rate was 19%, with a good rate of 62%. Brazil's soybean sowing is going well. Domestically, prices are weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - **Oils**: On Monday, BMD palm oil first rose and then fell, affected by weak soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 increased by 11.3% - 12.9% month - on - month. Domestic palm oil has mixed factors, soybean oil lacks upward momentum, and rapeseed oil closed lower with reduced positions. It is recommended to clear positions for the holiday [1]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, egg futures weakened. Spot prices were mostly stable with some declines. Short - term supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity supports the market. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday [1]. - **Pigs**: On Monday, pig futures continued to decline. Spot prices are weak due to abundant supply. The decline in the number of fertile sows in August has not yet affected the short - term supply. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position and pay attention to consumption and capacity changes [2]. Market Information - **Palm Oil**: Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 20 vary. The SGS data shows a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month, while Amspec shows an 8.3% increase. The SPPOMA data indicates a 7.89% decrease in production from September 1 - 20 compared to the same period last month [2][3]. - **Pigs**: The national pig - feed price ratio this week is 5.12, a 1.54% month - on - month decrease. The expected profit per pig in the future is - 106.13 yuan. The pig price is expected to continue to decline next week [3]. - **Agricultural Products Wholesale Prices**: On September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index increased. The average prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens in the national agricultural product wholesale market also increased compared to last Friday [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Charts show the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [5][6][10]. - **Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and pigs [13][16][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a situation of oversupply, with supply pressure expected to increase after the holiday due to continued high - level group sales and ineffective inventory reduction [2] - The egg market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand as the double - festival boost is over and all - level inventories are abundant [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 12,295 yuan/ton, a change of - 280.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decline of 2.23% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.55 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.84 yuan/kg, down 0.23 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On September 29, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.80, down 0.05 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.32 yuan/kg, up 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - This week, the spot price has been declining. Due to the approaching holiday, group farms are rushing to meet the slaughtering schedule, increasing supply. Consumption has increased slightly, but the market is still in an oversupply situation, and inventory has not been effectively reduced [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract yesterday was 3016 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 20.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.66% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.33 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.11 yuan/jin [3] - Inventory: On September 29, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.03 days, up 0.03 days from the previous day, an increase of 3.00%. The circulation - link inventory remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - The double - festival stocking is basically over, and the festival boost effect is poor. The arrival volume in sales areas has decreased significantly, the goods movement in all links is slow, and terminal demand is weak. The market will maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]