Core Viewpoint - The Chinese service sector is experiencing a slowdown in new order growth, reaching a 28-month low, while costs are rising, and service prices are declining, leading to a drop in industry optimism to a historical low point [2][11][14]. Service Sector Performance - In April, the Caixin Services PMI stood at 50.7, down from 51.9, indicating continued expansion but at the slowest pace since September of the previous year [2]. - The composite output index fell from 51.8 in March to 51.1 in April, marking a three-month low in production activity [5][15]. - New business volume growth has slowed, with the rate being the weakest in seven months, and new export orders have also contracted [5][16]. Employment and Cost Trends - The employment index in the service sector has fallen into contraction territory for the second consecutive month, reflecting cost-cutting measures by companies [9][14]. - Average input costs have risen, driven by increasing raw material prices and wages, yet service firms continue to lower selling prices for the third month in a row due to weak market demand [9][14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Business optimism has declined to the second-lowest level since the survey began in November 2005, primarily due to concerns over trade policy changes [14]. - Despite the pessimistic outlook, companies expect that new marketing strategies and efficiency improvements will help drive growth in the next 12 months [14]. - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with external trade uncertainties significantly impacting business sentiment [19].

截至2025年5月6日 10:27，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价105.51元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月30日，公司债ETF近半年累计上涨1.16%。 流动性方面，公司债ETF盘中换手0.33%，成交4435.83万元。拉长时间看，截至4月30日，公司债ETF近1月日均成交17.48亿元。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达133.53亿元，创近1年新高。 份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达1.27亿份，创近1月新高。 消息面上，4月制造业PMI降至49.0%，为2021年以来四月份的第二低。4月制造业PMI容易季节性回落，今年4月制造业PMI环比降幅明显好于2022年4月及 2020年2月，反映美国高关税对中国经济的影响程度可能明显好于疫情。 机构认为，未来债市需要关注中美关税谈判的进展。倘若未来半年中美达成协议将关税降至年初水平，年内10Y国债收益率高点仍可能到1.9%，2025年经济 仍有望企稳。由于关税谈判艰难，短期或难谈成，我们预计债市二季度震荡。 浙商证券认为近期债市调整仍将持续，但鉴于基本面无明确利空，货币宽松基调不变，建议按利率底部区间震荡思路交易。 流动性方面，国债ETF ...

智通财经5月5日电，美国4月ISM非制造业PMI 51.6，预期50.2，前值50.8。 ...

Group 1 - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April in the United States is set to be released shortly [1]

宏观•要闻 《民营经济促进法》出台 4月30日，十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议表决通过《民营经济促进法》出台，自2025年5月20日起施行。民促法是我国首部专门关于民营经济发展的基础性法 律，从"公平竞争""投资融资促进""科技创新"，到"规范经营""服务保障""权益保护"，民促法对民营企业发展中的重点关切予以积极回应。 商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸对话磋商情况答记者问 5月2日，商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况称，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方 传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 蓝佛安：更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践 5月1日出版的最新一期《求是》杂志，刊发财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安的署名文章《更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践》，传递出积极财政政策设计的丰 富内容和实施重点。文章指出，2024年出台的一批有针对性的财政增量政策，是我国财政宏观调控史上的一次重大创新。具体包括一次性增加6万亿元地方专项债 务限额置换存量隐性债务，加力支持地方化解债务风险；研究发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本，提升服 ...

文 ｜ 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 2 0 2 5年4月全球制造业PMI指数（4 9 . 8）环比小幅下滑，呈现"中国调整、新兴良好、日韩分化、 欧洲企稳、美国承压、加墨收缩"的特征。欧元区制造业PMI边际回升，出现阶段性企稳回升态 势，不过关税仍为经济复苏带来不确定性因素。4月美国ISM制造业PMI指数录得4 8 . 7，并呈现"供 需回落、通胀抬升、就业市场降温、外贸大幅回落"的特点，美国经济数据回落的趋势和海外市场 的衰退交易尚未结束。整体而言，关税对美国及全球经济的影响已经初步显现，美国经济读数或仍 小幅回落，对资本市场的扰动尚未结束，我们预计年中美国制造业PMI或仍在荣枯线以下波动运 行。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年4月全球制造业PMI指数较3月环比小幅下滑，录得4 9 . 8，关税扰动增加经济不确定 性。 4月全球制造业PMI指数环比小幅下滑，整体呈现" 中国调整、新兴良好、日韩分化、欧洲企稳、 美国承压、加墨收缩 "的特征。横向比较来看，亚洲新兴国家制造业表现涨跌互现，但整体相对 好于欧洲地区。 ▍ 分区域来看： 1）亚洲方面，经济表现延续分化态势，在荣枯线两侧窄幅震荡，日本、印度制造业边际回升。 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

越南4月制造业PMI 45.6，前值 50.5。 ...

智通财经5月5日电，越南4月标普全球越南制造业PMI为45.6，前值50.5。 ...

Group 1 - The article mentions that stock markets in China, Japan, the UK, and South Korea are closed for the day [1] - It highlights that the US will release the April Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI later tonight [1]