Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is reported at 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] Manufacturing Sector - Large enterprises have a PMI of 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, remaining above the critical point [1] - Medium-sized enterprises show a PMI of 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, below the critical point [1] - Small enterprises report a PMI of 48.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from last month, still below the critical point [1] - Among the five sub-indices that comprise the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index are below the critical point [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in non-manufacturing business volume [1] Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that production and operational activities in enterprises are continuing to expand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.8%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector as it falls below the neutral level of 50% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI of 49.8% suggests a decline in manufacturing activity, as a reading below 50% typically signals a contraction in the sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - Japan's manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 48.4, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The composite PMI for September stands at 51.1, suggesting overall economic stability with slight expansion in services [1]

Core Insights - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.5, below the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.7 [1] - Services PMI preliminary value increased from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5 [1] - Composite PMI preliminary value for September is 51.2, slightly above the expected 51.1 and previous value of 51 [1] Germany - Germany's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 48.5, lower than the expected 50 and previous value of 49.8 [1] France - France's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value is recorded at 48.1, marking a three-month low [1] - France's September composite PMI preliminary value is recorded at 48.4, indicating a five-month low [1]

Core Insights - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the UK in September is reported at 46.2, which is below the expected 47.1, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The preliminary services PMI for the UK in September is reported at 51.9, also below the expected 53.5, suggesting slower growth in the services sector [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI of 46.2 reflects a decline in manufacturing activity, as values below 50 indicate contraction [1] - The actual PMI is lower than market expectations, which may signal ongoing challenges in the manufacturing industry [1] Services Sector - The services PMI of 51.9 indicates that the sector is still growing, but at a slower pace than anticipated [1] - The deviation from the expected 53.5 suggests potential headwinds for the services industry moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for Germany in September is reported at 48.5, which is below the forecast of 50 and the previous value of 49.8 [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - Germany's manufacturing PMI for September shows a decline to 48.5, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The forecast was set at 50, suggesting expectations of stability, but the actual figure reflects a downturn [1] - The previous month's PMI was recorded at 49.8, indicating a further decline in manufacturing activity [1]

Core Insights - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for France in September is reported at 48.1, which is below the expected 50.1 and the previous value of 50.4 [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector as it falls below the neutral level of 50 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][13][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts has materialized, leading to a slight decline in metal prices. The macroeconomic environment appears favorable, with signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector [7][13][47]. - The industrial metal prices have shown a general decline, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [5][27]. - The report emphasizes that the basic metals sector is experiencing a seasonal recovery, particularly in aluminum and copper, despite some pressures on prices and demand [11][48]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has declined, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.30% [20][24]. - The non-ferrous metal index closed at 6522.39 points, down 4.02% week-on-week, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.71 percentage points [6][20]. Macroeconomic Factors - China's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year in August, down from 5.7% previously, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling showing a growth of 9.1% [8][37]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, aimed at addressing weak employment and inflation pressures [7][41]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 26.10 in September, indicating improved economic outlook [9][45]. - The global manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in August, rising to 50.9, the largest increase since June 2024 [10][47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained production capacity at 44.085 million tons, with a weekly production of 845,500 tons. The current aluminum price is 20,840 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 1.00% [11][50]. - **Alumina**: The market remains oversupplied, with spot prices continuing to decline. The current alumina price is 3,033 CNY/ton, down 1.30% [13][14]. - **Copper**: Supply remains stable, but demand is weak, leading to global inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic copper production is 238,000 tons, with a slight year-on-year increase [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Processing fees have risen, but domestic inventories continue to accumulate, with a weekly production of 129,600 tons [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting that the seasonal recovery in basic metals, particularly in copper and aluminum, is expected to strengthen prices despite current fluctuations [13][17][48].

Core Insights - This week, the market will experience a series of important data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with a particular focus on the U.S. August Core PCE Price Index, which will directly influence the Fed's interest rate path for the remainder of the year [1][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Following last week's Federal Reserve decision, officials will be making public speeches, with key figures like New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard discussing the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy [3]. - The U.S. August Core PCE Price Index is expected to maintain a growth rate around 3%, which would not alter expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [11]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence - On Tuesday, various countries will release their September Manufacturing PMI preliminary values, with the Eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI revised up to 50.7, indicating potential economic expansion [4]. - The Eurozone's September Consumer Confidence Index is anticipated to remain negative but may show signs of improvement [3]. Group 3: International Economic Data - On Wednesday, Australia's August CPI is expected to remain stable, influencing future interest rate expectations, with a potential rate cut from 3.60% to 3.35% by November [8]. - Germany's September IFO Business Climate Index is projected to show a rebound for the seventh consecutive month [8]. Group 4: Additional Economic Releases - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at zero during its upcoming decision, following three months of stable inflation [9]. - The U.S. second-quarter GDP final value is projected at an annualized rate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and increased investment in AI, which may lead to further revisions [11].