Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CRR Pricing Model for Convertible Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: The CRR pricing model is based on the binomial tree framework, which incorporates embedded options, credit spreads, and other factors to calculate the theoretical value of convertible bonds. This model aims to identify pricing deviations in the convertible bond market and exploit the mean-reversion of these deviations[44][45]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the CRR binomial tree model to calculate the theoretical value of convertible bonds, considering embedded clauses and credit spreads. 2. Define the "pricing deviation" as the difference between the CRR theoretical price and the market price. 3. Select convertible bonds with the highest CRR price-to-market price ratio within each style (equity-like, balanced, and debt-like) for portfolio inclusion. 4. Portfolio construction: - Initial screening criteria: - Bond rating of AA- or above - Outstanding balance of at least 200 million yuan - Exclude stocks with ST or other special treatments - No historical rating downgrades or negative outlooks - Major shareholder pledge ratio below 90% - Active trading in the past 10 days - Redemption progress less than 5 days - Not below the bond floor - Style classification: - Equity-like: Parity > 110 - Balanced: Parity between 90 and 110 - Debt-like: Parity < 90 - Select the top 10 bonds with the highest CRR price-to-market price ratio in each style, totaling 30 bonds[45][51]. 5. Weighting and rebalancing: Equal weighting with monthly rebalancing[44][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The CRR pricing model is more accurate than traditional methods like BSM due to its consideration of embedded clauses and credit spreads, making it suitable for identifying pricing inefficiencies in the convertible bond market[15][44]. 2. Model Name: Low Valuation Momentum Strategy for Convertible Bonds - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines low valuation and momentum factors to identify convertible bonds with low conversion premium levels and positive momentum in their underlying stocks[48][49]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Initial screening criteria: Same as the CRR pricing model[51]. 2. Style classification: Same as the CRR pricing model[51]. 3. Selection criteria: - Evaluate the relative valuation of convertible bonds (absolute and relative pricing) - Assess the short-term momentum of the underlying stocks - Combine these factors into a comprehensive score and select the top 10 bonds in each style, totaling 30 bonds[51]. 4. Weighting and rebalancing: Equal weighting with monthly rebalancing[51]. - **Model Evaluation**: The low valuation momentum strategy effectively combines valuation and momentum factors, making it a robust multi-factor strategy for convertible bond selection[49][51]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. CRR Pricing Model - **Monthly Return**: -0.51%[48] - **Annualized Return**: 15.17%[48] - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.82%[48] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 12.08%[48] - **Return-to-Volatility Ratio**: 1.18[48] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.26[48] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 61.36%[48] 2. Low Valuation Momentum Strategy - **Monthly Return**: -0.28%[55] - **Annualized Return**: 15.16%[55] - **Annualized Volatility**: 12.84%[55] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 11.26%[55] - **Return-to-Volatility Ratio**: 1.18[55] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.35[55] - **Monthly Win Rate**: 64.77%[55]

Group 1 - The article raises a question about the persistent negative sentiment towards Huawei, suggesting that this phenomenon is common for controversial brands across different eras [1][3] - It discusses the varying perceptions of Huawei as a brand, attributing these differences to cognitive biases and economic backgrounds of consumers [5][7] - The article emphasizes that the concept of value for money is subjective and should not solely be based on price, but rather on stability and user experience [7][9] Group 2 - Huawei's pricing strategy is defended as a response to external pressures, particularly from U.S. sanctions, which the article likens to bullying, indicating that Huawei's innovation is a necessary counteraction [9] - The article posits that Huawei's competitive positioning is against major brands like Samsung, Apple, and Sony, highlighting its unique value in the market [9] - It concludes that every brand has its own value, and the absence of innovation from Huawei would leave a significant gap in the domestic smartphone market [9]

Group 1 - Haidilao's bakery brand "拾 耍·SCHWASUA" has officially opened in Hangzhou, attracting high customer traffic since its launch during the May Day holiday, with some popular products selling out by 11 AM [1][3] - The bakery offers a variety of products with prices starting at 5.8 yuan, positioning itself as a cost-effective option, with many items priced under 10 yuan, leading to positive consumer feedback on its affordability [1][4] - The store features over 50 types of baked goods, including popular items like coffee bread, which sells over 200 units daily, often running out of stock [3][4] Group 2 - The store's design adopts a minimalist black and gold theme, with a unique circular glass display for products and interactive elements like a lottery machine to engage customers [4][6] - The bakery market is highly competitive, with a rapid turnover of brands; recent examples include the rise and fall of brands like 熊猫不走 and 虎头局·渣打饼行, highlighting the volatility in the sector [8][9] - Haidilao's entry into the bakery market combines elements of both affordable and premium offerings, aiming to explore a new business model that emphasizes quality while maintaining low prices [11][13]

2元面包，疯狂裂变 2025年即将过半，烘焙市场风起云涌，热度不断升温。 一边是"黄油年糕"在社交平台上强势刷屏，一边是去年开始风靡全国的"2元面包"悄悄以惊人的速度扩张。 早在2023年内参君就曾报道过2元面包，那时它的身影主要出现在二三线城市乃至县城。近2年时间过去，2元面包竟然从下沉市场开到了一线城市，甚至 开到了广州天河南一路这类较热门的商圈。 广州天河南一路新开的2元菠萝包，摄图：内参君 在这个过程中，一些2元面包的新变种也应运而生，在主打产品、门店模式等方面延伸出了更多玩法。 例如，对于一些2元面包店，不少门店根据不同偏好的顾客推出了"2元牛马套餐"组合。 从奶香小吐司、肉松面包，到甜口咸口齐备的紫薯芋泥、咸蛋黄欧包、血糯米糯吐司，甚至考虑到健康人群与健身客群，还计划推出无夹心的全麦系列。 便宜不代表将就，2元面包的丰富性反而在"极简"中实现了"极丰"。 又例如，在广东地区，菠萝包几乎成为2元面包店的"门面担当"。 代表品牌"山海姬"，门头上大大打出"招牌港式菠萝包"，号称一年热销超过一千万个。明档制作，现烤出炉。面包2元起，每次经过几乎都会有人排队。 另一代表品牌"乐见余小满"，主打"每日现烤、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Green Tea Group is launching its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise approximately HKD 12.11 billion through the issuance of 168.364 million shares at an offer price of HKD 7.19 per share, with plans for expansion and infrastructure upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO will involve a global offering of 168.364 million shares, with 117.854 million new shares representing 25% of the total shares post-issue [1]. - The company has secured eight cornerstone investors who collectively subscribed for approximately HKD 673 million worth of shares [2]. - The funds raised will be allocated for expanding the restaurant network, establishing central food processing facilities, upgrading IT systems, and general corporate purposes [1]. Group 2: Company Background - Green Tea Group originated from a youth hostel established in 2004 in Hangzhou and opened its first restaurant in 2008, growing to a national network of 489 restaurants across 21 provinces, four municipalities, and two autonomous regions by April 2024 [2]. - The company is recognized as the third-largest casual Chinese restaurant brand by the number of restaurants and fourth by revenue in mainland China [3]. Group 3: Business Strategy and Performance - The company focuses on a diverse menu with popular dishes like Green Tea Roasted Chicken and Flame Shrimp, maintaining a high cost-performance ratio with an average consumer spending of RMB 50 to 70 [3]. - Revenue figures for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were reported at RMB 2.375 billion, RMB 3.589 billion, and RMB 3.838 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB 17 million, RMB 296 million, and RMB 350 million [3]. - Future expansion plans include opening 150, 200, and 213 new restaurants in 2025, 2026, and 2027, focusing on smaller outlets for higher turnover rates and lower costs [3].

细心的网友在5月7日打开微博会发现有关学而思学习机的广告映入眼帘，也是在这一天，好未来旗下学而思发布 了三款学习机，其中P系列标准款学习机首发价更是定在2699元，这是主攻中高端价格带的学而思首次将学习机 定价低于3000元。这在外界看来，主要是为了覆盖下沉市场。 内容、AI、配置是学习机赛道玩家用来吸引消费者的关键因素，而在追求性价比的如今，低价也成为消费者考量 的重要且直观的因素，这也倒逼学习机厂商不得不把价格降下来。 对于学习机赛道是否进入了价格战阶段，学而思智能学习负责人赵璞铮在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，"在 没有产品创新时，产品只能满足当下需求时，可能就会出现人们提及的靠降价竞争，这可能是一个阶段性的体 验，长期发展还是要在内容、AI方面加强投入，从学而思来讲，不会去参与价格战。" 布局3000元以下价格带 在颇具竞争力的企业宣布进入学习机腹地后不久，学而思也开始推出 P、S、T 三大系列学习机新品。相比此前将 学习机定价在中高端，此次P系列学习机首发价降至了3000元以下。 据记者了解，学习机价格区间呈现明显的分层化特征，主要分为低端（2000元以下）、中端（2000元—5000元） 和高端 ...

新能源车板块盘中上行，新能源车ETF（159806）涨超1%，机构表示产品性价比策略主导短期竞争。 国金证券指出，当前新能源车市场竞争以产品为核心，性价比策略成为车企胜率较高的选择。对于品牌 力不足的公司，降本能力是参与价格战的关键，低成本车企通过"降本超预期-定价超预期-销量超预期- 盈利超预期"的正向循环实现毛利率提升。市场已形成三种产品策略：新兴市场策略、性价比策略和品 牌力策略。目前车市通缩背景下，消费者对价格敏感度提高，短期竞争仍将围绕性价比展开，同时智能 驾驶作为长期趋势仍需等待认知奇点到来。2025年行业竞争加剧，具备低成本优势和强爆款打造能力的 公司更具竞争力。 新能源车ETF（159806）紧密跟踪CS新能车指数（代码：399976），该指数由中证指数有限公司编制， 精选新能源汽车产业链上41只具有代表性的A股作为成分股，覆盖从上游材料到整车制造等全产业链环 节，旨在全面反映中国新能源汽车产业的整体表现，并集中体现了动力电池、锂电材料及核心零部件等 产业链关键环节的龙头企业。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证新能源汽车ETF联接C（009068），国泰中证新能源汽车ETF联 接A（0090 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese retail industry is undergoing rapid changes in 2024 due to consumption stratification and digital transformation, with Sam's Club leading in paid membership retail with over 80 million global members and revenue exceeding 80 billion yuan in China [1][3] Group 1: Membership and Revenue - Sam's Club's membership fee revenue grew by 28% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 15% of total revenue, with average annual sales per store surpassing 2 billion yuan [1] - The number of Sam's Club members reached over 4 million in 2024, generating membership fee income of 2 billion yuan, with a high repurchase rate of around 70% [5][10] Group 2: Competitive Challenges - In 2024, the growth rate of new Sam's Club stores dropped sharply from 40% in 2023 to 18%, with lower sales efficiency in lower-tier markets compared to first-tier cities [3][10] - Online GMV growth for Sam's Club was only 25%, significantly lagging behind competitors like Hema X and JD Seven Fresh, which reported growth rates of 65% and 50% respectively [3][10] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Sam's Club has built a strong market position over 26 years, but faces challenges from rising competition, including Costco and Hema X, which are encroaching on its market share [4][12] - The market share of Sam's Club in first-tier cities declined by 2.3% in 2024, while Costco and Hema X saw increases of 4.1% and 3.8% respectively [12] Group 4: Consumer Trends and Preferences - The proportion of members under 30 years old dropped from 28% in 2020 to 15% in 2024, indicating a shift in consumer demographics and preferences [11] - Hema X's focus on localized products and smaller packaging options has attracted younger consumers, contrasting with Sam's Club's traditional larger packaging approach [11][12] Group 5: Operational Efficiency and Supply Chain - Sam's Club's supply chain management is highlighted as a strength, with a global procurement team ensuring high-quality products, but faces pressure from competitors offering lower prices [6][10] - The return rate for Sam's Club increased by 3 percentage points to 8.5% in 2024, and member satisfaction dropped to 79%, indicating potential issues with customer trust and product value [10]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场涨涨跌跌，进入5月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2025年5月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2016.1 2018.10 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2025.5.7 巴菲特指标 100% 80% 72.10% 50% 2025.5.7 2022.1.4 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高,市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 大盘成长 100% 50% 45.76% 30.97% 0% 2015.5 2020.1 2022.1 2018.1 2025.5.7 小盘成长 小盘价值 100% 50% 138.47% 15.28% 0% 2015.5 2020.1 2022.1 2025.5.7 2018.1 市净率百分位:指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越便宜。例如百分位为0，表示创下了历史新低。 股债性价比 近5年百分位: 3.63% 股债性价比 一 中证 ...

整车竞争的核心是爆款大单品，其背后是一家公司的自身战略。 汽车整车具有一面制造、一面消费、一面周期的三重特性，并有逐步向科技品转型的趋势。其中在周期角度，长期以 来，整车的市场竞争均是围绕打造爆款大单品展开的，导致车企销量明显围绕新品周期呈现周期波动，并影响车企股 价跟随其销量、订单波动。因而，判定整车新车爆款对于汽车研究至关重要，我们认为，整车爆款主要围绕三个要素 展开，分别是市场竞争格局（外部因素）、品牌力（车企本身）、性价比（产品本身）。并最终形成了新兴市场策略、 性价比策略、品牌力策略三种爆款产品打造策略。需要强调的是，虽然车企爆款产品的打造策略各不相同，但爆款大 单品背后是整车厂自身战略的体现，因而只要主机厂在战略上走在正确的道路上，其爆款大单品的打造能力就是有保 障的。 复盘整车产品打造策略：新能车时代比亚迪、吉利、小鹏、零跑、理想爆款打造能力最强 由整车爆款产品的三个要素而来，我们认为，整车的产品打造策略有三种：1）新兴市场策略：公司产品集中布局于此 前总量少、供给匮乏的细分市场，即我们常说的蓝海市场，如理想增程系列，长城哈弗 H6、坦克系列等；需要的是一 家公司对细分市场的判断足够精准；2）性 ...