Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 15, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,746, up 0.31%. The Inner Mongolia silicon-manganese spot was reported at 5,550. Affected by Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China, short - term funds shifted to US Treasury bonds and gold. Fundamentally, pre - holiday inventory rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continued to decline slightly, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 21,000 tons, and the molten iron demand was in high - level oscillation. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 170 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 270 yuan/ton. The final price of HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese in September was 6,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 15, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,352, up 0.34%. The Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,200, up 20 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries such as steel. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers mostly maintained normal production and delivered previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The semi - coke price was stable, and the short - term cost was supported. The Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 480 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 400 yuan/ton. In September, HeSteel's 75B silicon - iron tender price was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,746元/吨，环比上涨8元/吨；SF主力合约收盘价为0元/吨，环比下跌5,378元/吨 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量为575,060手，环比减少15,330手；SF期货合约持仓量为426,073手，环比增加14,954手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 53,757手，环比减少5,221手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 31,048手，环比减少2,919手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差为30元/吨，环比无变化；SF5 - 1月合约价差为86元/吨，环比下降20元/吨 [2] - SM仓单为49,756张，环比减少161张；SF仓单为13,137张，环比减少528张 [2] Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比无变化；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,090元/吨，环比下降10元/吨 [2] - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,200元/吨，环比上涨20元/吨 [2] - 锰硅指数均值为5,671.9元/吨，环比下降22.1元/吨；SF主力合约基差为5,200元/吨，环比上涨5,398元/吨 [2] - SM主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比下降8元/吨 [2] Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,150元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为760元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 锰矿港口库存为445.7万吨，环比下降2.1万吨 [2] Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.19%，环比下降0.99%；硅铁企业开工率为35.94%，环比上升0.61% [2] - 锰硅供应为204,225吨，环比下降2,205吨；硅铁供应为115,800吨，环比增加1,300吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存为242,500吨，环比增加8,700吨；硅铁厂家库存为66,030吨，环比增加4,570吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求为122,073吨，环比下降411吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,754.6吨，环比下降111.3吨 [2] Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.25%，环比下降0.02%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.53%，环比下降0.10% [2] - 粗钢产量为7,736.86万吨，环比下降228.96万吨 [2] Industry News - 川渝钢铁行业召开“反内卷”研讨会，探讨协同发展路径 [2] - 国际货币基金组织预计2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较7月预测上调0.2个百分点 [2] - 鲍威尔敞开美联储降息大门，将谨慎行动避免“缩减恐慌” [2] - 中汽协称以旧换新等政策对车市拉动效应大，预计补贴申请的汽车以旧换新总量超1200万辆，带动新车销售额近1.7万亿元 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents an overview of the mid - and upstream industries, including production and service sectors, and details the price and operation status of various industries at different levels. It also mentions relevant policies and responses to international trade issues [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Economic and Information Technology Commission released an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the intelligent terminal industry from 2026 - 2027, aiming to increase the scale of intelligent computing power terminals. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries and infrastructure [1]. - **Service Industry**: In response to the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the US measures are unfair and discriminatory, and urged the US to correct its mistakes and resolve issues through dialogue [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview - **Upstream**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices in the non - ferrous metal industry have rebounded, while egg prices in the agricultural industry have dropped significantly [2]. - **Midstream**: The PX industry in the chemical sector has a high operating rate; power plant coal consumption in the energy sector has decreased; and the asphalt industry in the infrastructure sector has reached a three - year high in operating rate [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities in the real estate market have slightly increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 14, the prices of eggs decreased by 19.12% year - on - year, while the prices of palm oil increased by 2.38% [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 9, the prices of copper increased by 7.20% year - on - year, and the prices of zinc increased by 1.45% [37]. - **Energy**: On October 14, the prices of WTI crude oil decreased by 6.24% year - on - year, and the prices of Brent crude oil decreased by 5.62% [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 14, the building materials comprehensive index decreased by 0.94%, and the concrete price index decreased by 0.35% [37].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a positive trend with the ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) rising by 0.78%, with key holdings such as Sunshine Power, Yubang New Materials, and Zhenyu Technology increasing by over 3% [1] - The newly issued "Special Management Measures for Central Budget Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction" emphasizes support for energy conservation and carbon reduction projects in key industries like electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery [1] - The new policy increases funding support for energy conservation and carbon reduction projects in high-energy-consuming industries from 15% to 20% of the total project cost, indicating a stronger financial backing for these initiatives [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (Hua Xia, 159368) is the largest ETF tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, with a scale of 1.066 billion yuan as of October 14, 2025, and a daily average trading volume of 88.89 million yuan over the past month [2] - The ETF has a significant focus on storage (51%) and solid-state batteries (30%), aligning with current market trends in the new energy and electric vehicle sectors [2] - The fund features the lowest fees in its category, with a combined management and custody fee of only 0.2%, enhancing its attractiveness to investors [2]

Group 1: ETF Performance - The New Energy ETF has seen a turnover rate of 3.23% with a transaction volume of 45.82 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the New Energy ETF's scale has increased by 279 million yuan, indicating significant growth [3] - In the past week, the ETF's shares grew by 299 million shares, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the New Energy ETF is 12.93 million yuan, with a total of 200 million yuan net inflow over the last four trading days [3] - As of October 14, the New Energy ETF's net value has risen by 55.85% over the past six months, ranking 237 out of 3739 index equity funds, placing it in the top 6.34% [3] - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 25.07%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting five months and a maximum increase of 62.44% [3] Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The "Central Budget Investment Special Management Measures for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction" has been issued, supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction projects in key industries such as electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery [3] - The new policy encourages energy conservation and carbon reduction transformations in industrial parks and clusters, as well as in infrastructure such as heating and computing power [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Developments - According to the National Energy Administration, by the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects in China is expected to reach 73.76 million kilowatts, which is approximately 20 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with a growth of over 130% compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The average storage duration is reported to be 2.3 hours, indicating advancements in energy storage capabilities [4] - The implementation of Document No. 136 marks the entry of new energy into a market-oriented trading era, enhancing the economic viability of energy storage [4] Group 4: Stock Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index include CATL, Sungrow Power, EVE Energy, Longi Green Energy, Huayou Cobalt, TBEA, China Nuclear Power, Ganfeng Lithium, Lead Intelligent, and Three Gorges Energy, collectively accounting for 45.2% of the index [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After high-level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend [2] - In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase [2] - Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market [2] - In the fourth quarter, considering the potential intensification of growth - stabilizing policies and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.87% to - 1.19%. Trading volumes varied, and changes in open interest showed a mixed pattern, with some decreasing and some increasing [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts had minor changes, with small increases or decreases. Trading volumes and open - interest changes also showed different trends [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with declines of up to - 2.99%. Trading volumes were relatively large, and open - interest changes were mixed [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines between - 1.78% and - 2.18%. Trading volumes were substantial, and open - interest changes were a combination of increases and decreases [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for some contracts changed compared to the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes all showed different degrees of decline, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively larger declines [1] - **Industry Indexes**: In the CSI 300 industry indexes, the main consumption and real - estate finance sectors had positive growth rates, while the pharmaceutical and information technology sectors had negative growth rates [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis values of different contracts relative to their corresponding indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others showed declines, while information on overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and S&P was also provided [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [2] - China countered the US' 301 investigation on its maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors by restricting transactions with relevant US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean [2] - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible end to balance - sheet reduction and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy department stated that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the long - term [2] 6. Industry Information - Relevant authorities may issue a document to regulate photovoltaic production capacity, including restrictions on capacity utilization and a ban on new capacity [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformations in key industries [2] - In September, China's automobile production and sales reached new highs, with significant year - on - year growth, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also set records [2] - Shanghai aims to boost the intelligent terminal industry, targeting a total scale of over 300 billion yuan by 2027 [2]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3865.23 points, down 0.62%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11 points, down 2.54%. The STAR Market 50 index fell by 4.26%, and the ChiNext index decreased by 3.99%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 25,966 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 11 sectors saw gains, with banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors leading the increases. In contrast, the telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced significant declines. Notably, indices related to cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, and selected insurance performed actively [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.16% and the Nasdaq dropped by 0.76%. Notable gainers included Walmart, which rose nearly 5%, and Caterpillar, which increased by over 4%. Conversely, the tech giants index fell by 1.26%, with Nvidia dropping over 4% and Amazon declining by more than 1% [2][4] Economic Insights - The Chinese Premier Li Qiang held a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs to discuss the current economic situation and future work strategies. He emphasized the need for a broader perspective to accurately assess the resilience of China's economy amid international changes and to strengthen confidence while addressing issues. Li highlighted the importance of implementing counter-cyclical adjustments and expanding domestic demand [10][12] - The meeting revealed that 1,734 stocks rose while 3,554 fell, indicating a turbulent market with 146 stocks rising over 5% and 446 falling over 5%. The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a focus on macroeconomic financial data [10][12] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Corporation due to their involvement in U.S. investigations that harm Chinese enterprises' rights. This action reflects ongoing tensions in international trade relations [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries such as electricity, steel, and chemicals. The initiative aims to align with national goals for carbon neutrality and promote green economic transformation [14][15][16] - China's manned spaceflight sector achieved a milestone with the registration of its first international standard, enhancing its influence in global aerospace standards [17]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. During the negotiation between Sinomine Resource Group and BHP, the market's risk aversion sentiment supported the iron ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, combined with the recent escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may fluctuate weakly, but it is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. The subsequent repair of downstream demand needs to be closely monitored [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 14, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening higher and then moving in a volatile manner, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes rose by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to fall, showing a golden - cross trend. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for two consecutive trading days [7][9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: There are reports that Sinomine Resource Group has suspended the purchase of imported iron ore produced by BHP priced in US dollars, and there are rumors that BHP has agreed to fulfill long - term contracts priced in RMB. During the negotiation stage, the supply uncertainty has given a certain boost to the ore price. If the rumor is confirmed, China's bargaining power over the ore price will be further enhanced, and the market sentiment may decline. - Fundamentals: In September, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil both increased, partly due to the end - of - quarter volume rush. Considering the regular decline after the end - of - quarter volume rush, the shipments in October are expected to decline. The arrivals last week increased significantly and are expected to gradually decline. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons but has declined slightly for three consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into the loss state. The subsequent output growth space is limited, and it may oscillate and decline at around 2.4 million tons in the short term. After the festival, the production and demand data of the five major steel products declined significantly, especially the demand for construction steel may have been affected by the holiday lag, and the subsequent demand repair situation needs to be observed. In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - festival replenishment efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually decline after the festival and return to the state of on - demand replenishment. [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method on October 14, with an operating rate of 1.40%, a bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and a winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan. There were no reverse repurchase maturities on that day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. - The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce responded to the recent US announcement of additional tariffs and other restrictive measures on China, stating that China's stance on the tariff war and trade war is consistent. China is ready to fight to the end if necessary and is also open to talks. China and the US have extensive common interests and broad cooperation space, and cooperation benefits both sides while confrontation harms both. The two sides have always maintained communication under the framework of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism and had a working - level meeting the previous day. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investment in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", which mentioned supporting energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries such as power, steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of infrastructure such as heating and computing power, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations of central and state organs. [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/15 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.64%报 4159.60 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.17%报 50.35 美元/盎司。 2. 国际能源署发布看空预测，WTI 原油主力合约报 58.59 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released the "Special Management Measures for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Central Budget Investment" to enhance and standardize the management of central budget investments for energy conservation and carbon reduction, aiming for high-quality project implementation and improved fund utilization efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Management Measures - The management measures focus on promoting "soft construction" to establish effective mechanisms for solving practical problems and advancing green and low-carbon circular development [1][2]. - The emphasis on "soft construction" marks a significant shift from merely hardware investment to building long-term mechanisms, ensuring that financial inputs translate into sustainable emission reduction benefits [1][2]. Group 2: Project Support and Focus Areas - The NDRC will support energy conservation and carbon reduction projects based on project characteristics, regional economic development levels, and local carbon reduction goals, with a focus on areas excelling in carbon peak and neutrality, energy conservation, and circular economy [2]. - Key supported sectors include energy conservation and carbon reduction in major industries such as electricity, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals, and machinery, as well as projects related to clean coal consumption replacement and low-carbon demonstration [2]. Group 3: Importance of Computing Infrastructure - Supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction in computing infrastructure is deemed necessary and forward-looking, as the rapid growth of the digital economy leads to increased energy consumption in data centers [3]. - Enhancements in energy efficiency in this sector will directly promote the application of green technologies such as liquid cooling and AI intelligent scheduling, thereby strengthening the green foundation of the digital industry and improving its environmental compliance and competitiveness in the international market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with potential impacts from tariff shocks and supply - demand imbalances in various industries [19]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced recent adjustments, but the long - term trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, and the overall risk of A - share margin trading is controllable [32][33]. - The bond market has different outlooks in the short and medium - term, with various factors affecting the performance of different bond types [22][28]. - The commodity market shows diverse trends, such as rising precious metal prices, complex situations in the coal - coke - steel - ore and energy - chemical sectors, and changes in agricultural product trade volumes [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 growth accelerating [1]. - In September 2025, export and import values increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries [2]. - From January to September 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased by 18.29% and 24.11% year - on - year respectively, but decreased in September [2]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and is expected to cut interest rates, with different views on the number of rate cuts [3][4]. 3.3 Main Commodity Highlights - **Metals**: Shandong Gold's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase by 83.9% - 98.5% year - on - year, and gold and silver prices have risen [5][6]. - **Coal - Coke - Steel - Ore**: In early October 2025, steel production showed different trends, and global steel demand is expected to be flat in 2025 and rebound slightly in 2026 [9]. - **Energy - Chemical**: Oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances, and there may be a policy to regulate photovoltaic capacity [10]. - **Agricultural Products**: China's grain projects are progressing, and there are changes in the import and export volumes of grains in different countries [12]. 3.4 Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and is expected to conduct a 6 - month term reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [15]. - **Important News**: The Chinese government emphasizes economic stability, and there are various policy adjustments and economic data changes at home and abroad [16][18]. - **Bond Market**: Bond market performance is diverse, with different trends in different bond types and regions [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates have changed, and the US dollar index has declined [27]. - **Research Reports**: Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond and convertible bond markets [28]. 3.5 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently adjusted, with A - share trading volume reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market has been falling for 7 days [32]. - A - share margin trading scale has reached a new high, and some brokers have adjusted margin ratios, while the overall risk is controllable [32]. - Southbound funds have driven the Hong Kong stock market, and although there is short - term adjustment, the long - term trend is positive [33].