Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is expected to be supported by domestic monetary easing following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which may enhance the bond market's performance in the fourth quarter [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, from a target range of 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months [2]. - Domestic banks are likely to follow suit with interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 10 basis points reduction in policy rates and a potential 20 basis points cut in the LPR for loans over five years [3][5]. Group 2: Currency and Export Dynamics - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell from around 100 points in late July to approximately 97 points by September 18, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB, enhancing the willingness of export enterprises to settle in RMB [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly, breaking the 7.2 mark and reaching around 7.1, which may pose risks to export competitiveness and necessitate measures to stabilize the currency [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - With the expectation of further monetary easing, institutions are optimistic about the bond market in the fourth quarter, predicting that the yield on 10-year government bonds may return to around 1.65% [5]. - After three months of adjustment, the bond market shows signs of stabilization, with expectations for a new downward trend in interest rates as the fourth quarter approaches [6].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a rebound, with silver leading the gains, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for continued interest rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations for two more cuts this year [1] - The dollar index rose, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's stance on monetary policy [1] Political Uncertainty - The failure of the Republican funding bill in the House of Representatives to pass in the Senate has heightened the risk of a government shutdown, increasing market volatility [1] - Ongoing political interventions, including a request for a response from a Federal Reserve official to former President Trump, continue to disrupt expectations of monetary policy independence [1] Geopolitical Factors - The European Union has implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, contributing to market uncertainty [1] - In the Middle East, discussions for a ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of Palestine by multiple countries are intensifying geopolitical fragmentation, which is raising risk aversion among investors [1] Market Sentiment - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [1] - The combination of monetary policy easing expectations, political and geopolitical uncertainties, and bullish sentiment from institutions is providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3,550 and may test the $3,800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, has the potential to rise towards $45 after breaking the $43 mark [2] - Overall, any pullbacks in gold and silver prices are viewed as opportunities for positioning, as both metals remain in a long-term bull market [2]

Market Performance - On September 19, the four major A-share indices pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.04% at 13070.86 points, the ChiNext Index down 0.16% at 3091 points, and the STAR 50 Index down 1.28% at 1362.65 points. Market turnover was 23,494 billion yuan, a decrease of 8,172 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+1.97%), non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), and building materials (+1.05%) led the gains, while automobiles (-1.94%), pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (-1.41%), and computers (-1.26%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,909/115/3,403 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -206, -225, 18, and 414 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +126, +203, -94, and -235 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 94.39, 65.35, 14.92, and -3.46 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -21.15%, -15.19%, -5.52%, and 1.98% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 3%, 8%, 19%, and 71% respectively [3]. Trading Strategy - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Market Performance - On September 19, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.407, up 3.72 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.585, up 4.42 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.796, up 4.55 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.2, up 1.97 bps [3]. Cash Bond and Related Data - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the two - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of +2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.46%; for the five - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.015, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the ten - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.013, and an IRR of 1.56%; for the thirty - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.306, and an IRR of 0.55% [4]. Capital Situation - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,543 billion yuan and withdrew 2,300 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1,243 billion yuan [4]. Trading Strategy - Short - term is bullish, and the implied interest rate of 2.2 for ultra - long bonds has sufficient cost - effectiveness; in the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL on rallies [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown resilience and an upward trend in response to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, with a significant probability of further rate cuts anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Gold ETF Fund Performance - As of September 22, 2025, the gold ETF fund increased by 1.36%, with a latest price of 7.99 yuan [2]. - Over the past two weeks, the gold ETF fund has accumulated a rise of 1.59% [2]. - The fund's liquidity is reflected in a turnover rate of 0.04% and a transaction volume of 10.83 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has entered a monetary easing cycle, with a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October [2][3]. - The recent decision to lower the target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%–4.25% indicates potential for two more rate cuts within the year [2]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, balancing inflation risks and employment downturns, while political pressures will not influence decisions [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Investors are advised to focus on fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, as well as economic, employment, and inflation data [3]. - Leverage funds are actively positioning themselves, with a net financing amount of 40.83 million yuan on the previous trading day and a total financing balance of 3.562 billion yuan [3]. - The BoShi Gold ETF (159937) closely tracks domestic gold spot prices, offering convenient trading options and low fees, suitable for both short-term and long-term investment strategies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectations for both monetary and fiscal policies have increased. Supported by the fundamental and capital aspects, medium - and short - term bonds may continue to strengthen [6]. - The probability of the central bank's easing is increasing, and there is a possibility of further increasing the money supply and cutting interest rates [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - **Capital Aspect**: During the week, due to tax payments, the central bank announced net reverse - repurchase injections. Capital was tight, and prices first rose and then fell. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation may lead to a 10bp interest - rate cut, and there is a possibility of a rate lower than OMO + 15BP. Considering the current liquidity situation, there is a possibility of net bond purchases this month, and the probability of the central bank's easing is increasing [8]. - **Macroeconomic Data and Logic**: In August, domestic macroeconomic data continued to decline and were below expectations. The reasons include the economic cycle's downward inertia and the complexity of anti - involution. The unemployment rate has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the pressure of stabilizing growth is increasing. Monetary policy may be the first to be strengthened, with a high probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in September and a 10bp interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The released macroeconomic data was weak, increasing the probability of the central bank's interest - rate cut. The market was mainly affected by bond - buying and fiscal stimulus expectations. Bonds with maturities of less than 10 years showed strong performance, while ultra - long - term bonds were weak. The strategy is to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and to buy bonds on dips [8]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Capital Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - The yield of Chinese bonds fluctuated, the yield of US bonds rebounded, and the US dollar index first declined and then rebounded. US stocks continued to rise, while A - shares slightly declined. Commodities first rose and then fell and continued to fluctuate. The European container shipping line continued to weaken [10]. 3.3 Recent Macroeconomic Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - **Domestic Data**: In August, China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all declined year - on - year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%. The decline in real - estate prices continued, and the decline in second - hand housing prices widened [18]. - **US Data**: In August, the US new - home construction annualized total decreased, and the retail sales and industrial output growth rates were lower than expected. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the economic forecast maintained the judgment of a soft landing, with inflation falling more slowly and the economy remaining resilient [18][19]. 3.4 Capital Aspect Analysis and Bond Futures and Spot Index Monitoring (P14 - 24) - **Open - Market Operations**: During the week, the central bank conducted net reverse - repurchase injections. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse - repurchase operation is expected to make liquidity management more flexible and further clarify the policy - rate status of the 7 - day reverse - repurchase [31]. - **Bond Yields**: The yields of Chinese bonds of different maturities showed different degrees of changes. The yields of 1 - year, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Chinese bonds had different weekly changes, and the term spreads also changed [40]. - **Bond Futures**: The prices and positions of bond futures contracts such as TL.CFE, T.CFE, TF.CFE, and TS.CFE changed during the week [45]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamental, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Index Monitoring (P25 - 27) - **Micro - Liquidity**: The trading volume proportion of broad - based indexes and the market trading volume, as well as the margin trading balance, showed certain trends. The trading volume of north - bound and south - bound funds also changed [92][94][97]. 3.6 Macroeconomic Medium - Term Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P28 - 46) - **Domestic Economy**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size showed signs of improvement, and the PMI data rebounded slightly but remained in the contraction range. The construction industry was weak, and the service industry was affected by the summer season [26]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US Q2 real GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.3%, and the core PCE inflation increased slightly year - on - year. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut in September reached 86.5% [26]. 3.7 Macroeconomic Long - Wave Fundamental Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No detailed content provided for this part.

美联储降息的消息越来越明确，中国央行会不会跟着行动？毕竟这事直接关系到咱们的投资、消费，跟每个人的生活都息息相关。 米兰今晚将坐在库格勒位子上，与库克仅一席之隔 先看美国那边的情况。结合华尔街的研报和美国1-8月的经济数据，尤其是就业数据来看，美联储在当地时间9月17号进行2025年第一次降息的概率特别大。 这可不是单次的调整，更像是美联储新一轮降息的开端。华尔街还有报告分析，现在美国经济表现挺疲弱的，照这个势头，年底前除了9月这次，说不定还 会有两到三次降息机会。 这事也意味着，特朗普在第二任期里，跟美联储来回博弈了那么久，这次终于等到了对自己有利的降息结果，降息的利好算是站到了他这边。 美联储今晚降息25个基点的可能性约为96.0%，降息50个基点的可能性为4% 就拿二手房来说，全国一二三四线城市里，70个城市有69个房价环比下跌，基本上是 "全军覆没" 的状态。一线城市降幅还不小，环比跌了1%，二三线城市 也分别降了0.6%和0.5%。 现在关键问题来了：美联储9月17号一降息，9月20号就是咱们人民币利率调整的重要窗口，国内央行会跟着降低人民币利率吗？在我看来，这种概率相当 大，不是随便猜的，而是有实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has rebounded nearly $15 trillion since its low in April, with bullish sentiment prevailing despite expectations of a short-term pullback [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.49% on Friday, closing at 6664.36 points, led by technology stocks [1] - Small-cap stock indices have retreated from record highs [1] - Trading volume surged near the close due to the expiration of $5 trillion in options, with approximately 27.7 billion shares traded across U.S. exchanges, marking the third busiest trading day since Bloomberg began tracking data in 2008 [1] Group 2: Economic Signals - Federal Reserve officials have resumed monetary policy easing while the economy continues to grow, sending positive signals to risk-seeking investors [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have declined for three consecutive days, with WTI crude closing at $62.68 per barrel, influenced by reduced concerns over "secondary tariffs" and contract rollovers [3][5] - The market's initial fear of tariff increases affecting oil demand has eased, leading to a decrease in upward pressure on oil prices [3] - The short-term fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to trading activities rather than a change in long-term trends [5] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 1.06%, closing at $3682.84 per ounce, following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut [3][5] - Despite a temporary drop after the Fed's announcement, the market is stabilizing and seeking a new support level, with expectations of further rate cuts this year [3] - The long-term support for gold prices is driven by monetary policy easing, which has contributed to a 39% increase in gold prices this year [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - Copper prices have risen by 0.49%, nearing $10,000 per ton, with expectations of a supply shortage and recovery in global manufacturing next year [4] - Citigroup's report indicates that while demand may face pressure in the coming months, copper prices are expected to reach $12,000 per ton next year [4] - The anticipated average copper price for the fourth quarter is projected to be around $10,000 per ton, reflecting a stable market response to future supply-demand dynamics [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve initiated an easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%, ending a nine-month pause due to a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining high at 2.9% in August [1][2] - The Fed anticipates two additional rate cuts in 2025, lowering rates to 3.50-3.75% by December, while raising the economic growth outlook for this year to 1.6% from 1.4% [2] - Following the Fed's announcement, bank stocks such as JPMorgan, Bank of America, and others reached new 52-week highs, indicating investor optimism [3] Group 2 - Banks benefited significantly from rising interest rates in 2022 and 2023, with net interest income (NII) increasing due to a favorable lending environment and economic growth [4] - By mid-2023, banks faced pressure on NII and margins due to rising funding and deposit costs, alongside deteriorating asset quality as inflation affected borrowers' debt servicing [5] - The recent rate cut and expected future cuts are likely to improve NII for banks, with a rise in loans and deposit balances anticipated [7] Group 3 - The shift towards easier monetary policy is expected to enhance non-interest income through increased client activity, deal flow, and asset values, benefiting investment banking, trading revenues, and asset management fees [8] - Lower interest rates are projected to improve banks' asset quality by easing debt-service burdens and enhancing borrower solvency [8][9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the fourth cut since September 2024 and the first in 2025 [1][4] - The cumulative rate cuts in 2024 reached 100 basis points, injecting significant liquidity into the market, with potential for an additional 50 basis points in the next three months [4][5] - The rate cut is a response to economic pressures, including a cooling job market, weakened factory activity, and slow consumer recovery, necessitating measures to stimulate economic growth [5][6] Group 2 - The rate cut creates a favorable external environment for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially reducing the pressure on the RMB exchange rate and foreign capital outflows [5][6] - Recent signals from Chinese authorities indicate a trend towards a more accommodative monetary policy, particularly in the real estate sector, which is crucial for economic stability [6][7] - The market anticipates a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which directly affects financing costs for businesses and consumers, especially in the housing market [6][7] Group 3 - A potential LPR cut could significantly lower mortgage rates, with expectations that rates may drop below 3%, alleviating repayment burdens for homebuyers [7][8] - For example, a 25 basis point reduction in LPR from 3.6% to 3.35% could save a borrower approximately 250 yuan per month on a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, totaling a reduction of about 90,000 yuan in interest payments [8][11] - Lower mortgage rates are expected to boost consumer confidence and stimulate housing demand, aiding in inventory reduction and stabilizing home prices [11] Group 4 - The anticipated reduction in mortgage rates is seen as a timely boost for the real estate market, enhancing purchasing intentions and stimulating consumption [11] - The stability and growth of the real estate market are expected to positively impact related industries, such as construction and home appliances, contributing to overall economic growth [11] - However, banks must balance rate adjustments with their funding costs and market competition, while policymakers need to navigate between stimulating growth and managing financial risks [11]