证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 金融政策率先启动——政策周观察第 29 期 4 月政治局会议后，货币金融政策率先启动。5 月 7 日，央行、证监会、金融 监管总局主要负责人出席国新办新闻发布会，介绍一揽子金融政策。参考点评 《为"确定性"护航——5 月 7 日"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"学习 理解》。 1、央行潘行长公布了十项货币政策措施：①降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点； ②阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的 5%调降为 0%；③下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点；④下调结构货性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点；⑤降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点；⑥增加 3000 亿元 科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度；⑦设立 5000 亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"； ⑧增加支农支小再贷款额度 3000 亿元；⑨将证券基金保险公司互换便利和股 票回购增持再贷款的额度合并使用；⑩创设科技创新债券风险分担工具。 2、国家金融监督管理总局李局长公布了八项政策措施：①加快出台与房地产 发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度；②进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范 围；③进一步调降保险公司股票投资 ...

Group 1 - The private economy is a vital force for advancing Chinese modernization and high-quality development, with local governments implementing practical measures to enhance the confidence and vitality of private enterprises [1][4][20] - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" will officially take effect on May 20, establishing the legal status of the private economy and emphasizing its role in sustainable and high-quality development [2][4] - The law addresses key concerns for private enterprises, including fair competition, investment financing, and technological innovation, providing institutional solutions to development bottlenecks [6][8][10] Group 2 - A series of financial policies have been introduced to stabilize the market and expectations, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which are expected to inject significant liquidity into the market [22][41] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, with social financing and loan growth showing positive trends, indicating a healthy financial environment [39][40] - The government aims to support small and micro enterprises, particularly those involved in foreign trade, through targeted financial measures to enhance their resilience and competitiveness [28][44] Group 3 - The government is focusing on enhancing consumption as a driver of economic growth, with policies aimed at increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups and promoting service consumption [35][36] - Structural reforms and policy measures are being implemented to stimulate both supply and demand, creating a favorable environment for consumption growth [36][37] - The government is also exploring innovative service models to improve the business environment and enhance efficiency in administrative processes [13][18]

Group 1: CPI Inflation - The CPI inflation for April is -0.1% year-on-year, which is in line with the previous value and higher than market expectations of -0.3% [1] - Core CPI inflation remains stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year it holds steady at 0.5% [8] - Food prices have turned from decline to increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% [5][6] Group 2: PPI Inflation - The PPI inflation for April is -2.7% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [12] - The decline in PPI inflation is primarily due to tariff impacts, with energy prices being suppressed and some industries facing export obstacles [15] - New momentum industries show resilience, with prices in sectors like computer and electronic equipment manufacturing improving [15] Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, the implementation of a package of financial policies on May 7 is expected to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market, potentially leading to a stabilization and gradual recovery of core CPI inflation [11] - The PPI inflation is projected to face downward pressure due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, but the recent financial policies may alleviate some of this pressure [20] - The expected CPI inflation midpoint for Q2 is around 0.2%, while the annual midpoint is projected at 0.4%; for PPI, the Q2 midpoint may drop to around -2.5%, with an annual midpoint of -2.4% [21]

"虽然市场对本次发布会第一反应的超预期是央行'双降'，但我们认为随着关税冲击的显现，真正 能让经济和市场行稳致远的，仍在于货币金融政策和财政政策的协同。"招商基金预计，随着"一揽 子金融政策"在今年二季度的持续落地，三季度增量财政的空间也将随之打开。 上一次同样规格的新闻发布会发生在2024年9月24日，同样 是在上午盘前9点开始，同样是"一行一局一会"一把手出席， 同样是公布了一系列的金融支持政策，因此，市场自然会把这 两次新闻发布会进行对比。 作者： 邹永勤 封图：图虫创意 在5月7日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）行长潘功胜、金融监管总局 局长李云泽、中国证监会（下称"证监会"）主席吴清分别对"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"的 有关情况进行了介绍，并答记者问。 "这是4月25日政治局会议'加强超常规逆周期调节'精神的落地。"广发证券资深宏观分析师钟林楠 向经济观察报记者表示，与去年四季度类似，这次央行、金融监管总局与证监会部署一揽子政策只 是一个开端，后续财政、准财政、消费、供给侧等领域应该还有进一步的政策空间。 "双降"或仅是开始 在发布会上，潘功胜宣布了央行的一揽子货币政策措 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction and engineering sector is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the construction sector following the release of a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [8][10] - The People's Bank of China is expected to enhance macroeconomic control with a moderately loose monetary policy, which includes measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with significant support measures announced for both sectors [14] Summary by Sections Event Description - A press conference was held by the State Council on May 7, where officials discussed the "comprehensive financial policy to support market stability and expectations" [2][8] Event Commentary - The report discusses the key points from the press conference, including the expansion of the real estate financing coordination mechanism and the increase in loans approved for residential construction [14] - It also mentions the role of insurance funds in stabilizing the stock market and the introduction of specific measures to encourage long-term investments [14] Related Research - The report references other studies, including one on URI's revenue growth and another on the construction industry's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 [12]

会议要求，辖区机构要重点做好以下工作：一是坚持维护市场平稳，充分发挥稳市主力军作用，用好用 足一揽子增量政策，积极落实推动中长期资金入市各项措施，全力巩固市场回稳向好势头。二是坚持提 升专业能力，进一步校正发展定位，增强服务新质生产力和居民财富管理的综合能力，健全对实体企业 全链条全生命周期的金融服务，推进数字化、智能化转型。三是坚持全面深化改革，贯彻落实《推动公 募基金高质量发展行动方案》，牢固树立投资者为本的经营理念，提升服务投资者的质量和水平。四是 坚持强化合规风控，健全公司治理，落实全面风险管理与全员合规管理要求，夯实文化建设成效。 本报讯(记者李乔宇)5月9日，在北京证监局指导下，北京证券业协会召开2025年北京证券基金行业高质 量发展座谈会。会议学习传达近期资本市场重要会议精神，总结回顾2024年辖区机构监管工作成效，分 析行业发展面临的形势，通报辖区机构存在的问题，部署2025年重点工作，部分机构代表就推进建 设"一流投资银行和投资机构"进行交流发言。北京证监局局长贾文勤和一级巡视员吴智伟出席会议并讲 话，北京辖区20家证券公司、39家公募基金管理人的主要负责人和合规风控负责人、110家证券分公 ...

具体而言，资本市场政策聚焦三个方面：一是强化市场监测，全力支持中央汇金发挥类"平准基金"作用。二是突出服务新 质生产力的着力点，深化两创板块、并购重组、科技创新债等改革。包括将于近期出台深化科创板、创业板改革政策举措，从 市场层次、审核机制、投资者保护等方面加强制度包容性等。三是大力推动中长期资金入市。包括印发落实《推动公募基金高 质量发展行动方案》，协同各方继续提升各类中长期资金入市规模和占比。此外，从关税对上市公司的影响来看，当前A股上 市公司近九成收入还是来自国内，上市公司经营绩效持续稳健，上市公司也在加快构建多元化出口市场、完善海外产能布局， 出口竞争力也在不断提升；后续证监会还将加大走访帮扶，对受影响比较大的上市公司增强监管包容度（股权质押、再融资、 募集资金使用等方面），帮助纾困解难。 本报讯 （记者王镜茹 见习记者刘晓一）5月7日，国务院新闻办公室召开"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"新闻发布 会，宣布一揽子重磅金融政策，向市场释放出稳市场稳预期的强信号。 平安证券股份有限公司方面认为，本轮一揽子金融政策的发布，是对4月25日中央政治局会议部署的具体落实，为经济高 质量发展和资本市场注入更多确定 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a comprehensive monetary policy package with ten specific measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations[8] - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points is expected to release approximately ¥1 trillion in long-term liquidity[9] - The policy interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, from 1.596% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points[9] Economic Indicators - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached ¥14.14 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4%[19] - Exports amounted to ¥8.39 trillion, increasing by 7.5%, while imports totaled ¥5.75 trillion, showing a decline of 4.2%[19] - The trade surplus for April was ¥700 billion, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports increasing by 0.8%[19] Sector Performance - The major stock indices showed varied performance, with the ChiNext Index leading with a weekly increase of 3.3%, while the STAR 50 Index decreased by 0.6%[30] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend due to favorable policies and relatively low valuations[25] Trade Partners - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling ¥2.38 trillion, a growth of 9.2%[21] - Trade with the EU reached ¥1.78 trillion, growing by 1.1%, while trade with the US decreased by 2.1% to ¥1.44 trillion[21] Investment Trends - Private enterprises accounted for 56.9% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports growing by 6.8%[22] - The import value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.7%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[24]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a package of ten monetary policy measures to support market stability, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[9] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.596% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1%[9] - A total of 300 billion yuan was added to the re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation, increasing the total to 800 billion yuan, aimed at supporting the "two new" policies[10] Economic Indicators - In the first four months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, with exports increasing by 7.5% to 8.39 trillion yuan and imports decreasing by 4.2% to 5.75 trillion yuan[19] - The trade value with ASEAN countries grew by 9.2%, making ASEAN China's largest trading partner, while trade with the EU increased by 1.1%[21] Market Performance - Major domestic indices showed varied performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.3% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.3% over the past week[30] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a weekly increase of 1.9%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 2.0%[30] Sector Analysis - The machinery and equipment sector saw a notable increase, while sectors such as real estate and transportation faced declines, indicating a mixed performance across industries[33] - The electronics sector accounted for over 60% of exports, with significant growth in exports of integrated circuits by 14.7% to 405.15 billion yuan[22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for A-shares in the medium to long term, supported by the recent monetary policy measures and relatively low valuations in the market[25] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the importance of stabilizing the capital market and enhancing support for small and micro enterprises[28]

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates for a longer period, with a higher probability of rate cuts occurring in the second half of the year, although the likelihood of a July cut is decreasing due to slow tariff negotiations and resilient economic growth [1][2][7] - The A-share market is anticipated to show stronger resilience due to ongoing policy support aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions for company transformation [1][12] Equity Market Insights - The U.S. stock market is facing multiple pressures that could trigger a downward spiral, despite some recovery due to eased tariff policies and fiscal stimulus expectations [1][17] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from policies promoting long-term capital inflows and corporate restructuring, with a focus on high-margin assets and sectors boosted by policy support [1][17] Fixed Income Strategy - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline, with a focus on identifying undervalued securities and opportunities related to redemption clauses [19][20] - The performance of convertible bonds is closely tied to the overall equity market, with a recommendation for a diversified portfolio including specific convertible bonds [19][21] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" aims to enhance investor returns and expand the scale of equity investments in public funds, which is crucial for long-term capital market stability [24][28] - The plan emphasizes performance-based fee structures and long-term investment strategies to improve the overall quality of the public fund industry [25][26] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has shown strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant fund allocation and a continuous increase in holdings by public funds, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [30][31] - The sector is expected to maintain high growth momentum due to new product launches and consumer demand stimulation [30][31] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is under pressure due to cost control measures, with a notable decline in revenue and profit margins, but there are signs of recovery in the innovative drug segment [36][39] - The innovative drug sector is projected to benefit from supportive policies and improving market conditions, leading to potential value recovery [38][39]