Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining an overweight position in gold, increasing allocation to Chinese stocks, shifting from aggressive to defensive in US stocks, underweighting global commodities, and maintaining a standard allocation in domestic and foreign bonds to achieve good returns [1]. Core Viewpoints - The US tariff policy is the main contradiction affecting global asset performance in the first half of 2025, with significant impacts on market sentiment and asset allocation strategies [2]. - The report highlights the potential for a "super cycle" in certain commodities driven by green transformation, although short-term economic cycles may have a more significant impact on commodity prices [6]. - The AI revolution is seen as a major opportunity for stock assets, particularly in the context of China's market, which is expected to benefit from the application of AI technologies [4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Outlook - The unexpected impact of US tariffs since April has led to a shift towards a risk-averse market environment, with tariffs remaining a significant factor influencing global trade and economic conditions [2]. - The report notes that the average effective tariff rate in the US is close to 16%, significantly higher than the 2.4% level at the end of 2024, indicating potential negative effects on global trade [2]. Dollar Cycle - The report indicates that the long-term dollar bull market may be coming to an end, with expectations of a decline in the dollar's value impacting the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3]. - It predicts that the US fiscal deficit may continue to shrink in 2025, potentially leading to a lack of support for economic growth [3]. Technology Cycle - The emergence of AI is expected to drive a new wave of technological revolution, with significant implications for stock market performance, particularly in the US and China [4]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese stocks have not fully priced in the potential of AI, suggesting a valuation advantage [4]. Real Estate Cycle - The report discusses the stabilization of the real estate market in China post-September 2024, although it notes that the market has not yet completed its downward cycle [7]. - It highlights the relationship between credit cycles and real estate cycles, suggesting that stock markets may respond positively during periods of deleveraging [7]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report recommends an asset allocation strategy that favors gold, high-dividend bonds, and Chinese technology stocks while being cautious with US stocks and commodities [8]. - It suggests that the uncertainty surrounding US fiscal policy and inflation could lead to opportunities in US Treasuries, although the overall outlook remains cautious [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market maintained a volatile pattern this week amidst the divergence of macro - data and policy games. Gold may face short - term pressure due to the re - pricing of the Fed's policy path, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment. However, the weakening of the US dollar's credit and the global de - dollarization trend provide structural support for the gold price. If it corrects to the next integer level, a long - term position can be established using the ratio spread structure. [5] - The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The demand for silver will continue to grow with the development of new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics, while the supply is relatively limited, supporting the long - term upward trend of silver prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Currency Attribute - The US dollar index showed a "first decline then rise" volatile pattern this week. It initially fell below 100 due to tariff uncertainties, then regained momentum after the UK - US trade agreement and the Fed's hawkish signal. The continuous easing of trade tensions pushed the US dollar to stand firm above 100. However, the market is vigilant about the lagged impact of tariff policies. In the short term, attention should be paid to the verification of the "secondary inflation" expectation by relevant data, while in the long - term, debt expansion and the de - dollarization trend still exert downward pressure. [3] 3.2 Financial Attribute - The Fed's May FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.25% - 4.5%. Chairman Powell sent a hawkish signal, emphasizing the risk of "simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment rate" in the coming months due to rising tariff rates. The probability of an interest - rate cut in June dropped to 19.8%, and in July to 59.1%. [3] - The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.05%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.37%. The 10 - year real yield of US Treasuries rose from 2.06% to 2.08%, a total increase of 2 basis points. The yield spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries narrowed slightly to 0.49%. [21] 3.3 Commodity Attribute - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the gold SPDR holdings were 937.94 (unit not specified), slightly lower than the previous week. The silver SLV holdings were 14,020.96 tons, an increase of 11.19 tons from the previous week. [3] - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for six consecutive months. In April 2025, China's official gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of the previous month. It is expected that the funds from central banks around the world will maintain a net inflow. [43] 3.4 Macro - financial - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%, higher than the expected 48.0% but lower than the previous value of 49.0%. Key sub - items showed "stagflation" characteristics. New export orders dropped by 6.5 percentage points to 43.1%, the lowest since May 2020, and the output sub - item dropped from 48.3 to 44, indicating that trade barriers are affecting entrepreneurs' confidence. [4] - The US ISM services PMI in April was 51.6, higher than the expected 50.3 and the previous value of 50.8, the highest since January 2023. The price sub - index reached 65.1, the highest since January 2023, reflecting a significant increase in raw material costs due to tariff hikes. [28] 3.5 Supply - demand Situation - The global silver market has been in shortage for five consecutive years, with an expected shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The supply is limited due to limited mine production and recycled silver accounting for only 20% of the supply, while the demand for silver will continue to grow with the development of new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics. [4] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For gold, if it corrects to the lower integer pressure level, a long - term position can be established through the option ratio spread structure. [3] - For silver, considering its recent resistance, when the gold - silver ratio's value center continues to rise and the silver price is at the upper edge of the box range, a collar structure can be used to hedge against the callback risk. If it fully corrects, long positions can be gradually established in batches. [4]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周关税问题继续有 所缓和，中美双方都表达了基于一定条件下愿意就关税问题进行对话的意愿，市场风险偏好有所回升，后续有 无进一步实质行动是重点。另外上周鲍威尔的发言仍然相对鹰派，对美股影响较大，金、铜对此反应平静，从这个角度看，如果后续 二次通胀有抬升的空间，大概率仍将利多金、铜。 核心观点 1、上周金铜再度走强 贵金属方面，上周COMEX黄金上涨2.65%，白银上涨1.09%；沪金2506合约上涨4.45%，沪银2506合约上涨2.38%。主要 工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+3.35%、+1.33%。 2、预期改善，铜价上行 在经历了此前的大幅波动之后，铜市场迎来阶段性平静。上周关税问题继续有所缓和，中美双方都表达了基于一定条件下愿 意就关税问题进行对话的意愿，市场风险偏好有所回升。虽然还没有进一步实质行动，但铜价相对乐观的对其进行了定价， 当然后续有无进一步实质行动是重点。另外上周鲍威尔的发言仍然相对鹰派，对美股影响较大，铜价对此反应平静，从这个 角度看，如果后续二次通胀有抬升的空间，铜大概率又变成多配的品种。 3、关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing "stagflation" pressure in the US economy, highlighting the divergence between consumer and corporate sectors, and the implications of tariff policies on economic performance and market dynamics [2][3]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is experiencing heightened "stagflation" pressures, with consumer confidence low and inflation expectations high, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer survey [2]. - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q1 consumption growth rate of only 0.7%, while corporate investment growth is forecasted at 8.9%, driven by strong equipment investment [2]. - The service sector's PMI fell to 50.8, nearing the contraction threshold, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, indicating a contraction [2]. Tariff Impact - Recent fluctuations in US tariff policies have led to significant market volatility, with a shift in trading logic from recession fears to capital flight from dollar assets [3]. - The US government announced a temporary exemption on tariffs for certain technology products, which could alleviate effective tariffs on about 25% of China's exports to the US [8]. - The article notes that the "export rush" effect has diminished, with a decline in container throughput at major ports [8]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate suggests a reluctance to quickly lower interest rates, with officials expressing concerns over inflation driven by tariffs [2]. - The article anticipates that the Fed's intervention to address liquidity issues may be less likely than in the past, leading to a potential upward trend in interest rates [3]. Domestic Economic Response - China's economy is facing challenges from both internal and external factors, with a weak real estate market and declining retail sales due to tariff impacts [7]. - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds to support economic growth and mitigate the effects of external shocks [9]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to present more opportunities than risks, with a potential decline in interest rates, while the A-share market is likely to remain volatile [12]. - The article suggests a balanced allocation in A-shares, focusing on technology, consumption, and dividend stocks, while also noting the potential for defensive positioning in the Hong Kong market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. CPI inflation data, which fell below market expectations, indicating a potential upcoming "secondary inflation" due to tariff impacts and persistent supply-side pressures [1][4][14]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 2.4%, while the core CPI fell to 2.8%, both lower than market expectations [1][4]. - Energy prices have sharply declined, significantly contributing to the unexpected drop in inflation, with gasoline prices falling by 6.3% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year [7][10]. - Optional consumption is shrinking, with second-hand car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month, marking the first decline since September 2024 [10]. - Despite the decline in certain sectors, supply-side pressures from housing, labor, and food (notably eggs) remain unchanged, suggesting persistent inflationary support [11][14]. Inflation Outlook - The article predicts that U.S. inflation may rebound above 3% by mid-year due to the delayed effects of tariffs [14][16]. - The labor market remains robust, with certain sectors experiencing high inflation despite overall economic weakness, indicating limited room for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16] . Strategy Recommendations - The article advises caution in going long on long-term U.S. Treasuries and suggests shorting the dollar at higher levels [4][18]. - Current U.S. Treasury yields present some attractiveness for long positions, but market stability should be monitored before entering [18]. - The dollar has seen a significant decline, with the index dropping 1.9% to 100.983, indicating potential opportunities for shorting the currency [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on the bond market, highlighting increased uncertainty and its effects on investment decisions and bond yields [3][7][10]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy and Market Impact - On March 4, the U.S. announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were quickly reversed for most goods two days later, leading to heightened uncertainty in trade policy [3]. - A new Bloomberg Economic Research Index, the Daily Trade Policy Uncertainty Index (TPU), was developed to track this uncertainty, which surged to levels not seen during the peak of trade tensions in Trump's first term [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress investment and affect economic output, contributing to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [7]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yields - From November 2023 to early March 2024, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 16 basis points, with approximately 7 basis points attributed directly to tariff uncertainty [7]. - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain interest rates during its March meeting, with core PCE inflation rising to an annualized rate of 4.5% and income growth accelerating by 0.8% month-on-month, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [7]. Group 3: Chinese Bond Market Trends - In March, the yield on China's 10-year government bonds rose to 1.93%, the highest since December of the previous year, before retreating to 1.8% later in the month [10]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rebounded to 4.36% due to better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and inflation concerns, impacting related sectors in the A-share market [10]. Group 4: Dim Sum Bond Market - The Dim Sum bond market has expanded significantly, with outstanding issuance surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan as of March 2025, and 2024 issuance reaching 896 billion yuan, a 120% increase from 2023 [11]. - High-rated bonds now account for 75% of the market, with issuers from the renewable energy and digital economy sectors emerging, such as BYD and SenseTime [11]. - The Bloomberg Offshore RMB Index has seen its market value more than double since the end of 2021, currently standing at 467 billion yuan [11]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The yield spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds has narrowed to -237 basis points, reducing the incentive to chase dollar-denominated assets and alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan [13]. - The credit spread of Dim Sum bonds is 78 basis points higher than that of domestic high-liquidity credit bonds, with a low default rate of 0.15% [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit driven by increased gold production and high gold prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.764 billion yuan, up 119.46% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.700 billion yuan, reflecting a 96.28% increase year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue was 2.803 billion yuan, a 29.85% year-on-year increase and a 38.30% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The net profit for Q4 was 659 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 132.05% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.02% [1] Production and Cost Analysis - The company produced approximately 15.2 tons of gold in 2024, an increase of about 0.8 tons or 5.6% compared to 2023 [2] - Production of electrolytic copper decreased by 4.51% to 6,192.77 tons, while lead concentrate increased by 49.15% to 4,051.09 tons [2] - The unit sales cost of gold remained stable with slight increases, such as 1,497.05 USD/ounce for sales cost, up 0.48% year-on-year [2] - The overall performance benefited from high gold prices, which offset production cost increases [2] Growth Projects and Future Outlook - The company is advancing incremental projects, including the successful completion of an 180,000-ton gold ore processing expansion project [3] - The company signed an investment agreement with the Dandong government to implement new mining projects under the national exploration strategy [3] - The company aims to raise 2.89 billion HKD through its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a significant portion allocated for exploration and acquisitions [3] Profit Forecast - The company expects continued optimization of its fundamentals and rising gold prices, projecting net profits of 2.53 billion, 2.93 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.0, 13.8, and 12.8 times [4]