| 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1386 | 环比 数据指标 -9 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1212 | 环比 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 174 | -10 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1398920 | -10970 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1115020 | 19010 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -361252 | 3587 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -264184 | 40727 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 10192 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2438 | -805 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -114 | -12 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -182 | -17 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -115 | 25 | | | 玻璃基差 | -128 | -5 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1280 | 20 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1325 ...

Group 1 - The three major indices opened higher and continued to rise during the trading session, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index showing slight fluctuations after a strong opening. Key stocks such as Kaisa Bio rose over 5%, with others like Juhua Co., Lianhong New Science, and Zhongfu Shenying also experiencing gains [1] - According to Open Source Securities, the driving force behind the chemical market has shifted from demand stimulation to supply-side reform. The policy catalyst typically follows a period where the Producer Price Index (PPI) is at a bottom state. Currently, the chemical cycle has been hovering at the bottom for a long time based on historical PPI comparisons [1] - Indicators from the demand side, such as Consumer Price Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and household leverage ratios, show limited short-term improvement. To optimize the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development in the industry, breakthroughs may be sought from the supply side [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index. According to the Shenwan secondary industry classification, the top three sectors in the index are refining and trading (28.79%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemicals (19.45%), which are expected to benefit significantly from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of "billion-level" active equity funds has rebounded significantly in 2025, with many funds achieving positive returns due to early investments in popular sectors such as healthcare and technology [1][2][6]. Fund Performance Summary - As of mid-2025, there are 22 "billion-level" active equity funds, with most achieving positive returns by August 15. Notably, Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme A and Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Select A have year-to-date returns of 73.46% and 65.27%, respectively [2][4]. - Other funds like ICBC Frontier Medical A and Ruiyuan Growth Value A have also performed well, with returns exceeding 30% [2][4]. - The funds managed by Zhao Bei (ICBC Frontier Medical A) and Ge Lan (China Europe Medical Health A) have heavily invested in the innovative drug sector, contributing to their strong performance [2][6]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to enter a more resilient and sustainable "slow bull" phase, driven by policy support, liquidity easing, and ongoing industrial upgrades [1][9]. - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the market's mid- to long-term upward trajectory, citing a positive feedback loop in capital flow and improved supply-demand dynamics [7][9]. - The current market sentiment is high, with significant capital inflows from various investor types, including retail and institutional investors [7][9]. Sector Insights - The innovative drug sector is experiencing rapid development, with domestic companies increasingly aligning with global standards and gaining recognition from multinational pharmaceutical firms [6]. - The technology sector, particularly in AI and advanced manufacturing, is expected to drive the revaluation of Chinese assets, supported by structural reforms in traditional industries [9].

华创宏观 压箱底培训来啦！ 8月20日-9月6日，每天下午15:30，不见不散！ 如何获取压箱底培训材料？ 1 、转发此篇至朋友圈。 2 、 点击阅读原文， 按照提示留下联系邮箱并上传转发截图，PPT将于活动结束后直接发送至您的邮箱（ 福利截止9 .6 ）。 （ 附PPT剪影及参会海报如下 ） 华制止存 创宏观2025 式稍底培训季 8月20日-9月6日 每天一期,下午15:30 创宏观分析 云观助理研 系列一 8月20日 (周三) 15:30 想得远: 洞察宏观"大"方向 -- 五大关 と7本 Will Nor tter = 1 21 张瑜,华创研究所副所长、宏观首席 系列二 8月21日 (周四) 15:30 看得全:端详经济"新"模样 -- 十大结 构变化 陆银波,华创宏观组副组长、高级分析师 系列三 8月22日(周五) 15:30 算得早:存款搬家"观"方向 -- 三支箭 看存款 文若愚,华创宏观高级分析师 系列四 8月25日 (周一) 15:30 研得透:驾驭利率"低"风浪 -- 低利率 寻优解 殷雯卿,华创宏观高级分析师 系列五 8月26日 (周二) 15:30 辨得清:漫谈财政"巧"勾稽 -- 十 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges in the service consumption sector in China, particularly the insufficient supply in areas with strong demand, such as elderly care and childcare services [1] - The report indicates that the supply of services is lagging behind demand, with the enrollment rate for children under three years old being less than 10%, significantly lower than the OECD average of approximately 36% [1] - The quality of service supply is also a concern, with an oversupply of low-end and homogeneous services, while specialized and personalized services are lacking [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have issued guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, focusing on both supply and demand sides [1] - The monetary policy will aim to maintain ample liquidity and reduce overall financing costs to create a favorable financial environment for consumption expansion [2] - There will be an emphasis on policy coordination, leveraging fiscal, employment, and social security policies to enhance consumer capacity and willingness [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain prices are stabilizing, with a slight increase in polysilicon prices, indicating a gradual escape from the vicious cycle of low-price competition, which warrants ongoing attention [1][2]. Price Stability and Production Adjustments - The overall price of the industry chain remains stable, with polysilicon prices experiencing a slight increase. As of August 13, 2023, some companies have raised prices by 1 yuan per kilogram, while others maintained their prices [2][3]. - In July, polysilicon prices reached the cost line, leading to a significant increase in order volumes for leading companies, with some even clearing their inventories. To alleviate supply and demand pressure, some polysilicon manufacturers are planning coordinated production cuts, which, if implemented, could stabilize output in September [2]. - The component production in July was approximately 52.4 GW, slightly down from 53 GW in June, with expectations for August production to remain stable between 52-53 GW. The Chinese market continues to see demand for both distributed and centralized projects [3]. Regulatory Developments - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has solicited opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to reflect the demands of the photovoltaic industry. This revision is expected to promote rational competition within the industry and provide legal backing for selling at or above the minimum cost price [3].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that government bonds support the improvement of social financing, while an active stock market boosts M2 growth, downplaying the negative growth in monthly loans [1][16] - In July 2025, new social financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bond financing being a major contributor [16][17] - The M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% in July 2025, driven by an active stock market and improved fiscal spending [16][17] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the comparative value of non-ETF component bonds in the sci-tech bond market, suggesting a shift towards these bonds for better liquidity and potential inclusion in ETF [1][18] - The analysis indicates that the credit spreads of non-ETF component bonds are generally higher than those of ETF component bonds, suggesting a larger selection of bonds with compression potential [1][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of sci-tech bonds in the context of market fluctuations and the potential for future inclusion in ETFs [1][19] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is compared to the supply-side reform, indicating a shift in focus towards new industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and high-end equipment [2][22] - The report notes that the current economic environment shows signs of structural and institutional overcapacity, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [2][22] - The analysis suggests that the "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance quality development rather than merely reducing capacity, with a focus on market-driven measures [2][22] Company Recommendations - Jinlang Technology is projected to benefit from increased demand in Europe and Asia, with a forecasted net profit growth of 68% in 2025 [8] - Upme Holdings is expected to achieve significant profit growth through its multi-brand strategy, with a projected net profit increase of 42.3% in 2025 [9] - Nasda is recognized as a leading domestic printer manufacturer, with a focus on enhancing competitiveness through R&D investments [10]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability, indicating a potential new cycle as production expansion comes to an end and policies are implemented [1][7]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced price declines and increased competition, leading to many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [2]. - Despite domestic demand stabilization from various policies, intensified competition and limited overseas demand have exacerbated price weakness and low capacity utilization, resulting in overall low profit levels [2][3]. Current Industry Position - The bottom position of the industry is considered relatively certain, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through concentration increases [3]. - The driving force of the chemical market is shifting from demand stimulation to supply-side reform, necessitating breakthroughs from the supply side to improve the supply-demand structure and promote high-quality development [3][6]. Self-Regulation and Policy Coordination - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [4]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation effects are often short-lived, and temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a state of oversupply [4]. Specific Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is entering a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [5][6]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with strict carbon emission policies curbing new capacity as a driving factor [5]. Future Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle as it shifts focus from market share to profit, with measures such as eliminating outdated capacity and enhancing industry self-regulation [7]. - The importance of pricing power is emphasized, as high concentration in many sub-industries means that if leading companies cease harmful competition, prices can stabilize and potentially gain global pricing power [7]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in major sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, with a focus on sub-industries nearing cyclical turning points, such as polyester filament [7][8].

● 刘英杰 谭丁豪 当下化工行业供需错配，价格走弱、盈利承压。不过，开源证券研究所副所长、化工首席分析师金益腾 日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，随着扩产进入尾声、政策逐步落地，化工行业正从"要市占 率"转向"要利润"，有望开启周期新起点。 行业正面临多重挑战 金益腾表示，2022年以来，受供需错配影响，化工品价格持续走弱，竞争加剧导致企业盈利承压，不少 企业陷入"增收不增利"局面。 他表示，今年以来，尽管多项扩内需政策落地有望带动国内需求企稳修复，但供给端竞争进一步加剧、 海外需求提升空间有限，使得产品价格走弱、产能利用率走低问题愈发凸显，导致行业整体利润水平偏 低，多数企业迫切希望改善竞争格局以回归正常盈利水平，在反内卷浪潮下，新一轮供给侧改革势在必 行。 作为典型的周期性行业，化工行业的景气度波动有迹可循。2008年底至2015年，国际金融危机后的需求 刺激计划推动制造业景气度快速回升；2015年底至2020年中，供给侧结构性改革通过"三去一降一补"等 措施，显著提升了工业景气度；2020年底至2023年，我国率先从全球公共卫生事件冲击中恢复生产，叠 加出口需求旺盛、新能源产业高速发展及"双碳"目标推 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 7 月，新增社融 1.16 万亿（前值 4.20 万亿）。社融存量同比增长 9.0% （前值 8.9% ）， M2 同比增长 8.8% （前值 8.3% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 5.6% （前值 4.6% ）。 核心观点 1 、企业贷款转负不影响我们"看股做债，股债反转"的判断。过去几年企业贷款增长主要靠制造业贷款推动，因此企业贷款的收缩或与当下控制违规项目、产业技 术标准不达标的制造业投资相关。这个视角下，企业贷款收缩或有利于 PPI 同比的抬升。 2 、企业整体的融资规模仍在增长。虽然贷款表现偏弱，但是权益融资，债券融资较去年同期均有改善。经济转型过程中，地产和地方融资平台更适配传统的间接 融资，而高科技创新型企业则与直接融资更为适配。 3 、贷款的高低不必然对应经济的好坏。我们跟踪的企业居民存款剪刀差仍在持续修复，这意味着经济的循环持续改善，我们仍未改变经济循环最差的时段正在过 去这一判断。 4 、对于权益资产而言，本轮中国资本市场的稳 ...