光伏供给侧专题：顶层支持+市场化淘汰+技术迭代有望推 动供给改善 20250924 摘要 光伏行业内卷现象升级，政府高度关注，工信部多次召开高规格座谈会， 强调落后产能退出，并修订《价格法》草案，为整治低价倾销提供法律 依据，多晶硅报价及组件集采价格已有所上涨。 光伏行业面临名义产能过剩挑战，整体稼动率仅 40%-50%，供给侧调 整成为关键。借鉴钢铁、煤炭等行业去产能经验，通过中央与地方联动、 多部门协同，从安全、能耗、环保、质量及技术五维度界定落后产能。 中国 2016-2017 年钢铁行业供给侧改革，通过国务院调查组问责、多 部门协作，出清 1.4 亿吨地条钢产能，粗钢产量显著下降。宝钢武钢合 并提升行业集中度，为光伏行业兼并重组提供借鉴。 日本水泥行业供给侧调整经历三个阶段：自发限产、政府主导削减过剩 产能、市场化兼并重组。政府在 84-90 年的政策性协调起关键作用，光 伏行业可借鉴其经验，依法依规推动落后产能退出。 光伏行业存量产能安全、技术和成本差距较小，未来政策可能侧重多晶 硅环节的能耗管理。新规显著下调多晶硅能耗要求，预计国内有效产能 将下降约 30%，严格执行有望淘汰落后产能。 Q&A 国 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **polysilicon industry** and its dynamics within the **photovoltaic (PV) sector** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Energy Consumption Standards**: New energy consumption standards may reduce effective polysilicon production capacity by **30%**, down to **2.4 million tons/year**. Non-compliant companies may face rectification or shutdown [1][3]. - **Price Dynamics**: Polysilicon market prices are polarized; resources priced below **52,000 CNY/ton** are in high demand, while those above **53,000 CNY/ton** face limited acceptance. This is attributed to cautious price transmission from components and anticipated hydropower reductions [1][4]. - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The government has strengthened anti-competition policies, introducing penalties for below-cost dumping, which is deemed unfair pricing. This has led to a more robust internal price feedback mechanism [1][5]. - **Profitability Potential**: The average price of polysilicon is approximately **50,000 CNY/ton**, with a cash cost of about **27,000 CNY/ton**, allowing for a net profit of **7,000 CNY/ton**. However, the industry's operating rate is below **70%**, impacting profitability [1][6]. - **Supply Chain Reforms**: Expectations for supply-side reforms in the PV industry are increasing, with a clear logic for price recovery. The commitment to anti-competition measures is crucial for restoring a healthy market structure [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Recent Price Adjustments**: As of September 5, domestic polysilicon prices have increased, with rod silicon priced at **55,000 CNY/ton** and granular silicon at **49,000 CNY/ton**. The PV sector has shown good performance, primarily driven by energy storage [1][8]. - **Challenges in the Industry**: The polysilicon industry faces challenges such as low operating rates, increased fixed costs due to depreciation, and ongoing losses for some manufacturers despite cost optimization efforts [1][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The industry is expected to experience a supply-demand turning point due to anti-competition measures. Key investment areas include polysilicon materials and PV glass, with specific companies recommended for attention [1][14][15]. Conclusion - The polysilicon industry is undergoing significant changes driven by new regulations and market dynamics. The focus on anti-competition measures and supply-side reforms is expected to lead to improved profitability and a healthier market structure in the photovoltaic sector.

电投 VS 神火深度对比之电解铝行业投资机会 20250924 摘要 供给侧改革锁定电解铝产能上限，稳定市场供需关系，严格监管有效控 制超产，确保行业规范运行，为电解铝行业发展奠定基础。 国内低廉且充足的能源供应，特别是煤炭和电力成本优势，是中国成为 全球最大电解铝生产国的重要支撑，增强了企业国际竞争力。 短期内，传统旺季需求提升和库存拐点推动去库存及价格上涨；长期来 看，国内供应增速放缓与需求增长加剧供需矛盾，支撑铝价上涨。 再生利用和海外扩展是解决供应问题的重要途径，但需要更高价格以保 证盈利，高价位将成为推动这些措施的重要动力。 国内电解铝产能增量有限，未来新增产能主要来自天山铝业和电投能源， 年均增量预计在 1%至 1.5%之间，增长幅度有限。 海外电解铝产能扩张面临投资成本高、建设进度慢、盈利不确定等挑战， 新增产能对全球供需格局冲击有限。 电解铝行业成本端趋于稳定，供需紧张推动价格中枢抬升，公司盈利仍 有上行空间，应关注海外新增产能及其成本水平以判断未来定价趋势。 Q&A 电解铝行业在全球和国内的定位及其重要性如何？ 电解铝行业在全球范围内具有重要的战略地位。全球约 60%的电解铝产能集中 在中国 ...

专家分享：从反内卷到全球出清石化行业的结构性机遇 20250924 摘要 中国石化行业面临炼油能力接近上限、乙烯供应过剩等问题，需通过反 内卷政策调整供应端，实现高质量发展。未来五年，新炼油项目落地需 等量置换，乙烯项目审批严格，小型煤制甲醇项目审批难度增加。 化工行业整体盈利能力较弱，仅少数具资源优势产品盈利良好。炼油和 乙烯是重点整治领域，丙烷脱氢装置投资减少。乙烯产能投放受管制， 行业盈利相对合理。未来政策将严控炼油装置新增，限制油头烯烃/芳烃 项目，收紧煤制烯烃/乙烷裂解审批，淘汰老旧装置。 企业申报新项目需具备高端材料技术，如阿尔法西丁或 POE。老旧小型 炼油和乙烯装置面临淘汰，各地园区需设定能耗总额度，高能耗、高污 染、低附加值产业可能关停。工信部已责成地方统计园区化工装置数量 及能耗。 中国将在未来五年内进行大规模炼油行业整改，重点是时间超过 20 年 且规模不到 200 万吨的小型老旧炼油厂，总计约 6,000 万吨。两桶油等 大型企业仍需进行设备升级以降低能耗和排放。 Q&A 反内卷政策对石化和化工行业的影响是什么？ 反内卷政策实际上是供给侧改革的一种形式，旨在通过调整供应端来促进高质 量 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the **反内卷 (anti-involution) policy** in the context of the **Chinese economy** for the year **2025**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Focus and Tools**: The 2025 anti-involution policy emphasizes technical implementation, with ministries primarily using supply-side tools to stabilize prices, such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (工信部) and the National Development and Reform Commission (发改委) stabilizing PPI (Producer Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) [1][2][4] 2. **Three Main Goals**: The policy has three main objectives: - Stabilize PPI year-on-year growth to prevent worsening corporate debt risks - Maintain positive year-on-year growth in CPI - Optimize the structure of emerging industries [4][12] 3. **Constraints on Policy Implementation**: The implementation of policies is constrained by two main factors: the lack of demand-side interventions and the relatively loose macroeconomic environment in China [5][16] 4. **Impact of Electricity Prices**: An increase in electricity prices by 10% can lead to a 1.9% increase in overall PPI, indicating that electricity prices are a significant driver of PPI [8][10] 5. **Industry Selection for Price Stabilization**: When selecting industries for price stabilization, factors such as industry price elasticity and their ability to influence PPI are crucial. Six key industries (coal mining, oil and gas extraction, energy refining, chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals) are identified as having significant influence [9][10] 6. **Challenges in Emerging Industry Capacity Governance**: Governance of emerging industries faces challenges such as coordination difficulties and the need for comprehensive efforts across various departments [15][17] 7. **Future Expectations**: The implementation of the anti-involution policy is expected to focus on price stabilization and capacity governance, with a gradual improvement in corporate profitability anticipated as macroeconomic reforms take effect [16][17][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **CPI Stability**: The stability of CPI is heavily reliant on stabilizing pork prices, with current strategies focusing on long-term price stabilization rather than immediate measures [12][14] 2. **PPI and CPI Growth Rates**: Current PPI and CPI growth rates are influenced by low base effects, with core CPI targets showing stability but some sub-items deviating from expected trends [13][14] 3. **Political Will and Policy Tools**: The effectiveness of PPI stabilization is not only dependent on technical measures but also on political will, with current policy efforts being more focused on price control rather than quantity control [11][16]

天山股份 20250925 摘要 天山股份作为全国性水泥龙头，受益于水泥行业反内卷趋势和供给侧改 革政策，尤其是在 2025 年底前需补齐超产部分的要求下，公司有望优 先受益于供给格局改善和价格协同机制的改善。 公司通过拓展水泥外产业链一体化业务（如商混和骨料）及海外业务， 构建新的增长曲线，有效分散单一区域市场波动带来的影响，增强整体 业务的稳定性和抗风险能力。 尽管 2021-2024 年水泥熟料销量随行业下行，但公司坚持"价本利" 策略，吨均价高于同业水平，且 2025 年二季度单季扭亏为盈，盈利能 力显著改善，显示出较强的经营韧性。 公司持续推进降本增效措施，包括提高石灰石自给率、增加替代燃料使 用和优化管理，使得单吨成本逆势下降，吨毛利大幅上升，进一步提升 盈利空间。 公司财务状况稳健，资产负债率稳中有降，融资成本较低，经营现金流 入健康，资本开支连续减少，同时承诺 2025-2027 年分红率不低于 50%，确保股东回报。 Q&A 天山股份作为国内水泥行业的龙头企业，其基本面和未来发展前景如何？ 天山股份是国内水泥熟料产能规模最大的企业，具有全国性布局和完整产业链。 从基本面来看，短期内公司在成本 ...

Summary of the Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry and its current challenges and strategies in response to overcapacity and profitability issues [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Improvement**: Industry associations are implementing collaborative mechanisms to bring poorly performing products back to cost levels, allowing leading companies to stabilize their profit margins [1][2]. - **Unified Market Policy**: The aim is to eliminate underperforming companies and standardize new entrants to prevent regional capacity transfer, promoting orderly industry development and enhancing product price elasticity [1][2]. - **Investment Growth**: From 2020 to 2024, the chemical industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% in fixed asset investment, significantly higher than previous cycles. However, demand decline has led to a notable reduction in capacity utilization and profitability [1][3]. - **Export Limitations**: Relying solely on exports is insufficient to alleviate domestic overcapacity. Anti-dumping measures from various countries restrict export capabilities, making it unrealistic to rely on international markets to absorb excess supply [4]. - **Dual Strategy for Overcapacity**: The industry will adopt a dual approach of strong regulation and soft constraints to manage capacity and achieve supply-demand balance. This includes policy support and collaborative mechanisms to control production and pricing [5]. - **Complexity of the Chemical Sector**: The chemical industry is complex, with various sub-sectors and products, making supply-side reforms challenging. The need for extensive data collection contributes to the slow pace of reform [6][9]. - **Historical Context**: The current phase of supply-side reform differs from 2016 due to technological barriers, diminishing returns on new investments, and increased project approval difficulties under a unified market policy [9]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Environmental and Safety Regulations**: Historical regulatory measures, such as environmental inspections and energy consumption controls, have significantly impacted supply dynamics in the chemical sector [8]. - **Investment Selection Criteria**: When selecting investment targets, focus on industries with historical collaboration, moderate scale, high concentration, low new capacity ratio, and advantageous production pathways to enhance investment returns [10].

Group 1: Industry Insights - The price of third-generation refrigerants continues to rise, indicating a sustained high level of industry prosperity. The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quotas, coupled with increased downstream demand, significantly optimizing the supply-demand balance. Prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have increased by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively as of September 19, 2025 [5][6][7] - In the basic chemical industry, the supply-side is expected to undergo structural optimization. Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. have created uncertainties in overseas chemical supply. China's chemical industry is poised to fill gaps in the international supply chain due to its competitive advantages [7][8] - The food additive industry is expected to expand due to new consumption trends and supportive regulations promoting health. Companies focusing on technology and product differentiation are likely to benefit, with key players identified as Bailong Chuangyuan and Jinhai Industrial [8] Group 2: Company Analysis - Juxing Technology (002444) has established a global multi-tier sales channel through mergers and acquisitions, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.87%, and a net profit of 1.273 billion yuan, up 6.63% year-on-year. The U.S. and Europe accounted for 65.00% and 25.66% of its revenue respectively [10][11][12] - The tools industry is maturing, with stable long-term demand driven by active housing markets and industrial production expansion. The global tools market is projected to reach $67.3 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2026. Smart electric tools are expected to drive growth in the sector [11][12] - Juxing Technology is actively advancing its globalization strategy, having established a logistics and distribution system across China, the U.S., and Europe, along with 23 manufacturing bases worldwide. The company is investing in new facilities in Vietnam and Thailand to enhance its supply chain flexibility [12]

首先我们看一下三季度债券市场调整的主因，其实就是我们前面提到的随着权益市场上涨带来的市场风 险偏好的上行，其中会有部分资金去做大类资产配置的切换，进而从债券市场转向权益市场。在这个过 程中我们其实发现，不同于过往的几轮权益市场的牛市，在这一轮权益市场"慢牛"的行情中，居民的存 款搬家从固收类转向权益类的迹象不是特别明显。我们理解对于大部分居民而言，他其实寻找的更多的 还是稳定的、并且收益相对比较可观的资产，就导致在权益走慢牛的趋势下，其实很多资金还是更愿意 去配置在三季度调整过后相对有配置价值的债券类资产。 第二点就是在7月份中央财经委提到的反内卷政策下，三季度多种商品出现了触底反弹，包括定价国内 需求的一些黑色商品，也包括这两年相对产能比较过剩的一些光伏产业的上游资产。我们发现其实在三 季度反内卷政策推行的过程中，更多的是政策层对于供给层面的一些约束。我们看到光伏产业部分头部 的企业去注资成立公司，然后去做部分产能的收储，并且去淘汰一些落后的、过剩的产能。而在化工领 域、黑色领域部分限产也引发了上游原材料价格的上涨。 我们想强调的是，在经济转型的过程中，反内卷政策更多还是依托于供给侧去做一些产能方面的严控， ...

中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 德国 150 年财政四部曲之二：增长与改革 ——大财政系列 14 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本篇报告为《德国 150 年财政复盘》的第二篇，聚焦德国 1945-1990 年的财政历史。这一时期 由于德国分裂为西德和东德，我们重点分析西德的历史，并将其分为三个阶段：1）1945-1965 战后重建期，关键词是"化债与奇迹"。货币财政重点从战后赔偿逐步转向战后重建，西德在艾 哈德"社会市场经济"的引导下迎来"经济奇迹"。2）1966-1980 全球滞胀期，关键词是"危 机与应对"，西德紧货币的态度一度保持温和通胀，宽财政从卓有成效变为效果有限，遭遇"德 国病"。3）1981-1990 产业转型期，关键词是"病夫与整顿"，需求侧管理转向供给侧改革。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490520080011 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVZ974 于博 宋筱筱 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 ...