Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand and cost - side support need to be closely monitored [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, prices are expected to move closer to the real fundamentals, and the influence of demand - side changes on prices will gradually increase. Speculative funds are advised to be cautious, while hedging funds can take appropriate opportunities [11]. 3. Summary by Category Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%), also with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased, while hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai increased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market was weak. In terms of macro - factors, the Politburo meeting's stance on real estate remained unchanged, and export competitiveness weakened. Rebar speculative demand declined with price drops and inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production rose rapidly, and inventory slightly accumulated. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.96% (+7.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 94.81 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.92 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.88% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non - mainstream country shipments increased and arrivals increased. The average daily pig iron output decreased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased. The steel mill profitability rate is high, and there is still demand support, while the supply growth is limited, and port inventory is trending downward [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.17% to close at 5972 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) fell 0.14% to close at 5674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, market funds had significant differences, and prices fluctuated widely. In the long term, the fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are still in an oversupply situation, and future demand is expected to weaken [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.65% (-140), with an increase in weighted positions. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.84% (-415), with a decrease in weighted positions [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, production in all major producing areas has increased, and cost support is limited. Although polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, the price may be weak in the short term. For polysilicon, prices are affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 55 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased. The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory increased. The downstream demand for soda ash was lukewarm, and the supply slightly increased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and in the long term, they will follow macro - sentiment. If real estate policies are introduced, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18]. Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: The prices of some coal and coke varieties increased, such as Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal up 50 yuan, and Ordos secondary coke up 50 yuan [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stable capital market with reduced capital rotation between stocks and bonds, and the attractiveness of bond yields for institutional investment [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Monetary and fiscal policies are expected to work together, and the logic of a bond bull market may persist [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Market sentiment was affected by the "anti - involution" concept and expectations of the Politburo meeting. However, the meeting did not fully meet market expectations. It emphasized expanding consumption, promoting "two - heavy" construction, urban renewal, market competition order, debt resolution, and capital market development [4]. - The table shows the closing prices, weekly price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509, TL2512, etc. [5] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (both in terms of quantity and price), including currency投放, currency回笼, and net currency投放. It also shows data on the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) in terms of quantity and price [10][15]. - Information on various interest rates is provided, such as the reverse repurchase rate, deposit - based pledged repurchase rate, SHIBOR, and the weighted average interest rate of bond - based pledged repurchase. Additionally, data on the trading volume ratio of R001 to R007, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, and excess reserve ratio are presented [14][19][23]. - Data on loan prime rates (LPR), deposit reserve ratios, and the relationship between policy rates and market rates are also included. Moreover, information on bond yields and term spreads of Chinese and US bonds is provided [27][31][33]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [41][50][58][64].

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations in August after a strong rally in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering key levels of 3500 and 3600 points, indicating a long-term bullish trend has begun [1] - The structural bull market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, with expectations of more proactive fiscal policies and potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [1][2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to benefit capital markets, with a stable liquidity situation and a positive outlook for economic recovery [3] Group 2 - There is a significant divergence in consumer performance, with new consumption brands showing strong growth while traditional sectors like liquor and food are underperforming due to declining income growth [4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to reduce overcapacity in various industries, which could improve competitiveness and benefit leading companies in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [5][6] - The U.S. trade war initiated by Trump has negatively impacted global trade growth and the U.S. economy, creating a challenging environment for companies reliant on international markets [7] Group 3 - The recent strong performance of U.S. tech stocks contrasts with warnings from prominent investors about potential market bubbles and high valuations, indicating a cautious outlook for the second half of the year [9] - The international gold price has shown volatility, but long-term trends suggest significant potential for price increases due to rising dollar issuance and geopolitical instability [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as policies, economic data, and international events. In the short - term, market sentiment may fluctuate, but in the long - run, different sectors will be affected by their own fundamentals. For instance, the capital market is supported by policies, but the real economy's recovery pace and demand are key factors affecting the prices of different commodities [3][5]. - The policy's attitude towards the capital market is positive, but the market may still face adjustments due to external factors and short - term over - valuation. For the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term under the background of weak domestic demand and loose funds, but may be in a short - term shock pattern [3][5]. - Different commodity sectors have different supply - demand situations. Some sectors are facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side weakness. For example, the copper and aluminum markets are affected by supply and demand, and the price trends are expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Index Futures - **News**: The restoration of VAT on bond interest income, media comments on NVIDIA, stock market supervision, and weak US non - farm employment data [2]. - **Base Ratio**: The base ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts show different trends. The trading logic is to buy on dips based on the policy's support for the capital market [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts showed declines on Friday. There were changes in bond tax policies, and the central bank had a large - scale net withdrawal of funds [4]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be in a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Both domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The weak non - farm data in the US reversed the market's expectation of the US economy, increasing the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: The copper price oscillated weakly last week. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the import of spot copper was in a loss. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: The aluminum price oscillated weakly. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the downstream demand was in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [10]. Zinc - **Market**: The zinc price declined slightly. The zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream consumption weakened. The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: The lead price rose slightly. The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The stainless steel and nickel - iron market was in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [14]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price oscillated and declined. The supply was low, and the demand was weak. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The carbonate lithium price declined. The supply reduction is expected to support the price, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina price declined. The supply - side contraction policy needs to be observed, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: The stainless steel price oscillated. The social inventory was still at a high level, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillated and declined. The downstream was in the off - season, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weak oscillating trend. The export competitiveness decreased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils was at a low level in the past five years. The price is expected to return to the real - trading logic [23]. Iron Ore - **Market**: The iron ore price rose slightly. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was supported. The price is expected to oscillate following the downstream prices [24][25]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price declined. The inventory decreased, but the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [26]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The industrial silicon price oscillated and declined. The supply was excessive, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [32]. Polysilicon - **Market**: The polysilicon price showed a high - level oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [33][34]. Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU declined significantly. The tire factory's operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations [36][37][39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures declined. The gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories decreased, while the naphtha and aviation kerosene inventories increased. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see [40]. Methanol - **Market**: The methanol price declined. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure [41]. Urea - **Market**: The urea price declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [42]. Styrene - **Market**: The styrene spot price was stable, and the futures price declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to oscillate upward following the cost side [43]. PVC - **Market**: The PVC price declined. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation was high. The price is expected to decline in the short - term [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG price declined. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased. The price is under downward pressure [46]. PTA - **Market**: The PTA price declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips following PX [47]. Paraxylene - **Market**: The PX price declined. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE price declined. The cost support existed, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP price declined. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly following crude oil [51]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market**: The pig price declined over the weekend. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The market is paying attention to the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [53]. Eggs - **Market**: The egg price declined over the weekend. The supply was large, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to be stable first and then rise, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The US soybean price oscillated weakly, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported. The supply and demand of soybean meal were in a complex situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips at low - cost intervals and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [55][56]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price declined slightly. The export and production data of Southeast Asian palm oil showed different trends. The price is expected to oscillate [57][58][59]. Sugar - **Market**: The sugar price declined. The sugar production in Brazil and India increased, and the import supply increased. The price is expected to continue to decline [60][61]. Cotton - **Market**: The cotton price declined. The downstream consumption was weak, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The price is expected to be short - term bearish [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand, with short - term prices tending to be weak, but the possibility of price fluctuations due to new narratives needs to be watched [15]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see production increases in August, with downstream production scheduling also increasing to a certain extent. However, the inventory may slightly accumulate, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [17]. Summary by Directory 01. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Weekly Key Points Summary - Demand: The weekly polysilicon production was 27,700 tons, showing an obvious rebound but still lower than the same period in 2024. The DMC production was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons [13]. - Price: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the 421 industrial silicon spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton [14]. - Cost: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 9,533.3 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 9,178.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.4 yuan/ton [14]. - Supply: The weekly industrial silicon production was 78,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons. From January to June, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 9.097 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to June was 335,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon inventory was 696,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 510 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 272,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons [14]. Fundamental Assessment - The industrial silicon market has a complex situation. The basis shows a premium, the cost is basically stable, the supply has increased this week, the demand has marginally improved, and the inventory remains high. The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies. The price is in a high - level shock. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. The short - term price may fluctuate widely, and cautious participation is advised [17]. 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of August 1, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the 421 industrial silicon spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 8,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,225 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of N - type re -投料 polysilicon was 47 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2509) closed at 49,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,825 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,200 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of - 4.68% [25]. 03. Industrial Silicon Total Production - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly industrial silicon production was 78,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons. In June 2025, the industrial silicon production was 331,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 321,000 tons or 14.74% [30]. Main Production Areas' Production - The report shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. Production Cost - As of August 1, 2025, the electricity price and silica price in main production areas remained unchanged. The price of refined coal in main production areas also remained unchanged. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; in Yunnan, it was 9,533.3 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 9,178.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.4 yuan/ton [43][46]. Visible Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 696,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 510 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 272,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 110 tons; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons [49]. 04. Polysilicon Production - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly polysilicon production was 27,700 tons, showing an obvious rebound but still lower than the same period in 2024. In July, the polysilicon production was 106,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative polysilicon production was 679,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.03% [54]. Operating Rate and Scheduling - As of August 1, 2025, the operating rate of polysilicon in July was 39.23%, a month - on - month increase of 3.91 percentage points. The expected production in August was 130,500 tons, with the operating rate continuing to rise [57]. Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the polysilicon inventory was 275,800 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics and 229,000 tons according to SMM's statistics, remaining at a high level compared to the same period [60]. Cost and Profit - As of August 1, 2025, the polysilicon production cost was 41,333.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight decrease; the gross profit was 3,416.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week continuous improvement [63]. Silicon Wafer - The weekly silicon wafer production was 11GW, a week - on - week slight decrease. In July, the silicon wafer production was 52.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09GW. From January to July, the silicon wafer production was 373.08GW, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW, a week - on - week slight increase. The predicted production in August was 53.29GW, a month - on - month slight increase [66][69]. Battery Cell - In July, the battery cell production was 57.26GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.07GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in July was 62.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3.32 percentage points. From January to July, the cumulative battery cell production was 385.79GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.33%. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.33GW, a week - on - week continuous decrease. The expected production in August was 59.15GW, a month - on - month slight increase [74][77]. Module - In July, the module production was 47.1GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.8GW. The operating rate of modules in July was 45.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points. From January to July, the cumulative module production was 330.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.47%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.5GW, a week - on - week continuous increase. The expected production in August was 46.82GW, a decrease compared to July [82][85]. 05. Organic Silicon Production - As of August 1, 2025, the DMC production was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons. In July, the DMC production was 206,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons. From January to July, the cumulative DMC production was 1.4334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.17% [92]. Price and Profit - As of August 1, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 12,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit was - 215.63 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [95]. Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the DMC inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons [99]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports Aluminum Alloy - As of August 1, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 20,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 320 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 19,970 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 909,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 108,900 tons or 13.6%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1% [104][107]. Exports - From January to June, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 335,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [110].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals of the black building materials market remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for product prices [3]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.31%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85,034 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 213,107 lots to 1.816026 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton (-2.67%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57,772 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 139,278 lots to 1.433936 million lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The export competitiveness has weakened, and this week's export volume has significantly declined. Rebar speculative demand has decreased significantly, resulting in inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand has slightly increased, production has risen rapidly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 779.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.27% (-10.00), and the position changed by -32,551 lots to 419,600 lots. The weighted position was 942,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.99% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing, Australian shipments increasing, Brazilian shipments slightly declining, and non - mainstream country shipments falling to a low level this year. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 2.4071 million tons. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 5.19% at 5,696 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 304 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: The short - term price fluctuations of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have intensified. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On July 31, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 5.65% at 8,760 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton; the 421 market price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 590 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Suggestion**: It is expected that the short - term price will maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals are still oversupplied, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 8 yuan to 1,267 yuan, and in Central China, it remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan. The national floating glass inventory decreased by 2.397 million heavy boxes to 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 60 yuan to 1,240 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 0.68%. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年 GDP（国内生产总值）增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开 经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将 聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market has policy support, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. The bond market is affected by the stock - commodity market, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the hawkish stance of the Fed. Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. The black building materials market is affected by policies and demand, and prices may fluctuate. The energy and chemical market has various trends for different products based on supply - demand and cost factors. The agricultural products market also shows different trends for different products such as livestock, grains, and oils [2][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Ningde Times' net profit increased by 33.02% year - on - year. Zhongchuan Emergency will be under risk warning from August 1st [2] - **Base Ratio**: Different base ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [2] - **Trading Logic**: The policy's support for the capital market is confirmed, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [3] - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Sino - US economic and trade talks agreed to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [3] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1585 billion yuan [3] - **Strategy**: The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, but the stock and commodity markets may suppress the bond market in the short - term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Both domestic and foreign gold and silver prices declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 99.82 [7] - **Market Outlook**: The hawkish stance of the Fed and the strong US economic data are negative factors for precious metals [7] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.74%, and SHFE copper was affected. The inventory and basis changed [10] - **Price Outlook**: The pressure on copper prices is relieved, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [10] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose slightly, and SHFE aluminum was in a volatile state. The inventory and basis changed [11] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the low inventory and weak demand [11] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: SHFE zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis changed [12] - **Price Outlook**: The long - term price is bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's decision and market risks [12][13] Lead - **Market Quotes**: SHFE lead index fell slightly. The inventory and basis changed [14] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is tightening, and the price may strengthen if the smelter inspection expands [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel changed [15] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to decline, and short positions can be held or shorted on rallies [15] Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The inventory and price of upstream tin concentrate changed [16] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures price fell. The trading limits were adjusted [18] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty, and speculators are advised to be cautious [18] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The index rose, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory increased slightly [19] - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may remain, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The futures price was flat, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory decreased [20] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to terminal demand [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was flat. The inventory increased slightly [21] - **Price Outlook**: The price is under pressure due to the weak supply and demand in the off - season [21] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell. The inventory and basis changed [23] - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [24] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price and basis changed [25] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may be adjusted, and risk control is needed [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price and basis changed [29] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price fluctuates greatly, and speculation is not recommended. The long - term fundamentals are bearish [30][31] Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. The spot price and basis changed [33] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate with high volatility, and waiting and watching are recommended [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices fell. The supply concern decreased [37] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [39] Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory data changed [40] - **Price Outlook**: The price has upward momentum in the short - term but is limited by the off - season demand [41] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The basis changed [42] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and demand may weaken, and waiting and watching are recommended [42] Urea - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price was flat. The basis changed [43] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and long positions can be considered on dips [43] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened [44] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise with the cost after the inventory is reduced [44] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [46] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price may fall back [46] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [47] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the price may decline [47] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [48] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and inventory may accumulate, and long positions can be considered on dips [50] p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [51] - **Price Outlook**: The price may go down with inventory, and long positions can be considered on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [52] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by cost and supply, and short positions can be held [52] Polypropylene PP - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [53] - **Price Outlook**: The price may follow the crude oil trend in July [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The pig price was stable with local fluctuations [57] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise slightly today. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [57] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was stable [58] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may oscillate, and short positions can be considered after the rebound [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean meal price rose slightly [59] - **Price Outlook**: The soybean import cost may be affected by trade relations, and long positions can be considered on dips [60][61] Oils - **Market Quotes**: The domestic palm oil oscillated, and the net long positions of three major oils changed [62] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter [63] Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell [64] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase, and the price may continue to decline [65] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell [66] - **Price Outlook**: The price is bearish in the short - term due to the weak consumption and unresolved trade issues [66]

这个大会召开前，政策已经"沉默"了很久，偶尔的政策出台，也多是修修补补，不痛不痒，对托起市场 行情作用不大。很多人在等下半年的第一大会，期待值拉得很高。 但结果并不如预期，大家等的终究是没等来，短期内大概率也不会来！ 政策底线表现的清清楚楚，明明白白，不可能再大起，也不接受大落，老老实实的待着，做好自己的事 情。 传言的棚改2.0没来，也不会再来了； 小作文炒作的现房销售也没来，全面铺开的影响太大了，谁也不敢出这个头，地方上谁愿意怎么推，就 怎么推，愿意怎么试，就怎么试； 无论是棚改2.0，还是现房销售，传言的目的本质上无异，都是外部在搞预期，通过空穴来风的内容来 扰乱咱们的预期，把预期值先拉上去，谣言起的那一刻，股市先动一动。等会议结束，如果出来的内容 跟提前被拉起来的预期不符，股市又得震一震，老套路，老把戏，不听不看不管，也罢。 LPR在5月下调后，连续2个月按兵不动，还要看市场反馈和大老美的动作； 限制性的政策，比如限售、限购，偶尔放一放，并不会激起太多水花，地方上还是保持谨慎…… 政策已经前置发力，上半年成绩不错 3月两会《政府工作报告》上已经提到"出台实施政策要能早则早、宁早勿晚，与各种不确定性抢时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].