[Table_Report 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（2.9-2.14） 10 年国债突破阻力位，交易机构呈现分化 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 10年国债突破 1.8%关键点位，机构行为呈现显著分化。2月 9日，10年国债 活跃券（250016）中债估值收益率成功突破 1.800%阻力位并下行至 1.799%； 截至 2月 12日，250016持续突破并温和下行至 1.775%；但在 2月 13日， 10 年国债下行受阻反弹，显露出震荡行情迹象。在本轮长债行情的背后，不 同类型的机构扮演了截然不同的角色。券商是本轮收益率下行的核心推动力 量。2月 9日至 12日期间，券商对 7-10年国债的净买入规模高达 241.92亿 元， ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the transaction volume of the government bond futures market is expected to reach 97 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the open interest in government bond futures is projected to be 648,000 contracts, up 30.4% from the end of 2024 [1] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract is anticipated to be 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from the end of 2024 [1] Bond Market Summary - In 2025, net financing for government bonds is expected to reach 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [1] - Net financing for corporate bonds is projected to be 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan from 2024 [1] - The total custody balance of the bond market is expected to be 196.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [1] Foreign Participation - By the end of 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market is expected to be 35 billion yuan, accounting for 1.8% of the total custody balance [1] - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of panda bonds is projected to be 183.06 billion yuan, with 56 new foreign institutions entering the interbank bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has released data indicating significant growth in the bond market and futures trading for 2025, highlighting increased financing and participation from foreign institutions [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of the government bond futures market is projected to reach 97 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the open interest in government bond futures is expected to be 648,000 contracts, reflecting a 30.4% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract is anticipated to be 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Financing - In 2025, net financing for government bonds is projected to be 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [1] - Net financing for corporate bonds is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan from 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the total custody balance in the bond market is forecasted to be 196.7 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market is expected to be 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.8% of the total custody balance [1] - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds is projected to be 183.06 billion yuan, with 56 new foreign institutions entering the interbank bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reports significant growth in the bond futures market and overall bond financing for 2025, indicating a robust outlook for the debt market in China [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Market - In 2025, the transaction volume of the government bond futures market is projected to reach 97.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the open interest in government bond futures is expected to be 64.8 million contracts, reflecting a 30.4% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract is anticipated to be 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Bond Market Financing - In 2025, net financing for government bonds is projected to be 13.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [1] - Net financing for corporate bonds is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 482.3 billion yuan from 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the total custody balance in the bond market is forecasted to be 196.7 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of 2025, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market is expected to be 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.8% of the total custody balance [1] - In 2025, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds is projected to be 183.06 billion yuan, with 56 new foreign institutions entering the interbank bond market [1]

Group 1 - Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) experienced a rise in price during the morning session in Tokyo [1] - This increase in JGB prices occurred amid a backdrop of weakness in Japanese equities [1] - The decline in Japanese equities was influenced by the downturn seen on Wall Street the previous night [1]

（*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.59% 附近，较上日小幅下行。 // 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 2 月 12 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1665 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1665 亿元，中标量 1665 亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展了 4000 亿元 14 天期逆回购操作。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1185 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净 投放 4480 亿元。 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面稍有改善，不过资金价格仍坚挺， DR001 加权平均利率小幅下行并徘徊于 1.36% 附 近。匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价在 1.35% ，供给好于上日。非银机构以信用债为抵押融入 隔夜以及跨节资金，报价坚挺在 1.65% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.65% 。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market showed a good profit effect with major indices rising, while the bond market stabilized. The cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with non-ferrous metals, media, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains at 23.02%, 18.85%, and 14.95% respectively. Conversely, the banking, comprehensive finance, and transportation sectors experienced declines of -6.18%, -4.46%, and -0.89% respectively [3] - The bond market exhibited resilience after a period of decline, with major bond fund indices showing slight increases: the Wind medium to long-term pure bond fund index rose by 0.24%, the Wind bond index fund index by 0.20%, and the Wind short-term pure bond fund index by 0.16%. Additionally, the first-level bond fund, second-level bond fund, and convertible bond fund indices increased by 0.85%, 1.65%, and 6.90% respectively [3] Equity Fund Allocation Strategy - The A-share market in February faces a complex environment influenced by both internal and external factors. Externally, the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts and rising "Wall Street expectations" have led to a rebound in the US dollar. Internally, the combination of "RMB appreciation + gradual inflow of long-term funds from residents + regulatory guidance for stable market operation" is observed. The market may enter a short-term adjustment phase before the Spring Festival due to tightening liquidity and holiday effects, with limited systemic opportunities and a focus on structural trends [4] - Future price increases driven by a reversal in supply-demand dynamics are expected to release stronger profit elasticity and further valuation recovery. The technology sector, particularly in areas with clear patterns and certain benefits such as "light, electricity, and storage," is likely to continue to outperform. Traditional dividend stocks are also becoming more attractive in terms of cost-effectiveness, serving as a stabilizing tool for investment portfolios [4] Fixed Income Fund Allocation Strategy - Looking ahead to February, the pessimism in the bond market has eased, but caution is still advised regarding extending duration. Holding high coupon bonds is seen as more cost-effective. Despite current ample liquidity and the emphasis on long-term interest rates in the fourth quarter monetary policy report, the recent 10-year yield has fallen below 1.8%, and the credit spreads for medium to long-term credit bonds are currently narrow, limiting further contraction [5] - Overall, the difficulty in obtaining short-term capital gains may increase, making coupon strategies a more favorable choice. Specific fund products are recommended to focus on high coupon bonds while actively managing positions in response to market conditions [6]

2026年开年之际，经济的结构性分化仍在继续，新旧动能转换的调整步伐也已加快。在此背景下，债券 市场的表现或成为观察这一宏观转换最敏锐的窗口。 华商鸿信纯债债券基金经理吴毓灵在近期披露的定期报告中回顾道，2025年四季度，国内经济基本面延 续结构性分化态势，生产端和出口保持韧性，PMI重回扩张区间，物价水平从低位温和回升。但内需表 现仍偏弱，其中社零增速放缓，固定资产投资明显承压，地产销售未见起色。货币政策延续适度宽松， 资金价格中枢整体平稳。 华商鸿信纯债债券申购费率根据申购金额划分不同标准：金额＜100万元时费率为0.80%；100万元≤金 额＜300万元时费率为0.60%；300万元≤金额＜500万元时费率为0.30%；金额≥500万元时按每笔100元收 取。赎回费率依据持有时间划分：持有时间小于7日费率1.50%；7日≤持有时间不收取赎回费。本基金 不收取销售服务费。通过基金管理人的直销中心申购本基金基金份额的养老金客户申购费率详见本基金 《招募说明书》及相关公告。 风险提示：本基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、恪尽职守、谨慎勤勉的态度管理和运用基金资产，但不保证 基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资者购买基 ...

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，2月11日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了785亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量785亿元，中标量785亿元。同时，以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了4000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据显示，当日750亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放4035亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面偏紧态势缓解有限，DR001加权平均利率小幅上行并徘徊于1.37%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.35%供给明显收敛。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.63%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 非银机构以信用债为抵押融入隔夜以及跨节资金，报价在1.6%上方。 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.59%附近，较上日小幅下行。 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 涨跌不一，长券表现较好 | （*数据来源：Wind-成交统计BMW） | | --- | 5. 近期城投债（A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market strengthened overall driven by risk - aversion sentiment. The yield of ultra - long credit bonds declined slightly, and the number of ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 388. The new issuance of ultra - long credit bonds saw increased subscription sentiment, but the supply volume shrank to a relatively low level in the past two years. Ultra - long bonds led the bond market rally, but the trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. In the short term, the pre - holiday asset shortage logic continues, and the continuous opening of amortized cost method bond funds will provide incremental funds. However, after the holiday, the extremely low pricing of ultra - long bonds is relatively fragile, and factors such as the recovery of the stock market, the increase in government bond supply, and unexpected policies may cause price fluctuations of ultra - long credit bonds [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - This week (from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026), the bond market strengthened overall driven by risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of ultra - long credit bonds showed a slight downward trend. Compared with last week, the number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 388 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds increased this week. The total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds was 3.1 billion, and the supply volume shrank to a relatively low level in the past two years. The interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds continued to decline to 2.58%, and the interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds remained around 2.5%. Driven by the correction of the equity market and the central bank's clear intention to protect liquidity before the Spring Festival, institutional participation in subscribing for new ultra - long credit bonds has strengthened [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - Ultra - long bonds led the bond market rally. This week, the bond market sentiment continued to recover. Treasury bonds with a term of over 10 years performed well, with the full - price index rising nearly 0.5% weekly. The prices of ultra - long credit bonds also increased marginally. The full - price indices of AA+ credit bonds with terms of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years increased by 0.04% and 0.17% respectively compared with the previous week, outperforming medium - short - term credit bonds and secondary capital bonds [4][30] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. Although long - term bonds led the rally this week, in terms of liquidity, the number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years slightly increased to 275, and the activity did not improve significantly. Investors were concerned about chasing up ultra - long credit bonds due to insufficient spread protection (the spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds was only 13bp) and potential supply pressure [4][33] - This week, ultra - long credit bonds were mostly traded at a lower valuation. However, in terms of buying willingness, the proportion of TKN for varieties over 10 years decreased significantly, indicating limited enthusiasm for chasing long - term bonds in the market [4][39] - In terms of investor structure, the allocation sentiment of trading desks such as public funds towards ultra - long credit bonds became more cautious, and the net buying volume decreased month - on - month. The buying power of insurance and other funds for long - duration assets also weakened temporarily. Overall, ultra - long credit bonds lacked continuous and sufficient buying support [4][44] - From a more microscopic perspective, due to the faster decline in long - term treasury bond interest rates, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and treasury bonds of similar terms widened passively this week. Looking ahead, the pre - holiday asset shortage logic continues, and the continuous opening of amortized cost method bond funds will provide incremental funds for corresponding term varieties. However, looking after the holiday, the extremely low pricing of current ultra - long bonds is relatively fragile, and factors such as the recovery of the stock market, the increase in government bond supply, and unexpected policies may cause price fluctuations of ultra - long credit bonds [5][46]