Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market currently has significant differences, and breaking through the current trading range requires the formation of a new consensus, which is expected to gradually take shape in the next month [2][7]. - The economic data in August further weakened, and if the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the possibility of the central bank restarting bond purchases or even reducing the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates cannot be ruled out [2]. - Although the bond market is currently sensitive to negative factors, the probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [2][3]. - The central bank is likely to maintain the stability of cross - quarter funds, and the adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [2][3][47]. - During the period of waiting for market consensus to form, it is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest rates need the market to reach a new consensus on the central bank's adjustment driven by the weakening fundamentals for further decline - In August, the economic data further weakened. The industrial added - value dropped to a new low of 5.2% for the year, and the 25Q3 GDP growth rate is likely to drop to 5% or lower [2][10]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in August dropped to 3.4%. After September, the base increase may further magnify the pressure, and the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment accelerated its decline, with all three sub - items weakening comprehensively [2][13][15]. - In August, the real - estate - related growth rates also declined across the board. Although the economic entered the peak season in September, the improvement of production activities was not significantly better than the seasonal average, and the export volume may face pressure in Q4 [2][18][19]. - Since Q3, the relationship between the bond market and the fundamentals has weakened. If the GDP growth rate significantly weakens in Q3 and the pressure continues to increase in Q4, the central bank may restart bond purchases or even reduce the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates, but the market needs time to reach a consensus on this [2][26]. 2. Under the central bank's stable attitude, the bank's liability pressure is limited. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase bidding method is conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices - In August, the excess reserve ratio was 1.1%, lower than expected, mainly due to the unexpected significant increase in government deposits, which may be affected by the slowdown of general public budget expenditures and the slow progress of replacement bond use [2][26][29]. - The central bank's tool issuance in recent months has been more inclined to large - scale banks. Small and medium - sized banks have continued to net repay inter - bank certificates of deposit, indicating that their motivation to expand assets through inter - bank business has weakened, and their liability pressure may be relatively lower [2][36]. - Last week, the funds tightened marginally under multiple exogenous disturbances, but on Friday, the funds became looser marginally. The average values of DR001 and DR007 since September are roughly the same as those since Q3, so it cannot be inferred that the central bank's attitude has changed [2][3][40]. - The central bank's adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to fixed - quantity, interest - rate bidding, and multiple - price winning may achieve the effect of interest - rate cuts in essence, showing the intention to support cross - quarter funds and being conducive to the decline of cross - quarter funds prices [47]. 3. Emphasize the leveraged interest - rate - arbitrage strategy in the short term and wait for clearer signals for long - end bonds - The probability of the A - share market accelerating its unilateral upward movement in the short term is relatively low, and the impact of redemption fee policies on market sentiment may gradually weaken [3][49]. - Although the probability of the central bank's bond purchases, reserve - requirement ratio cuts, and interest - rate cuts in the future increases, the timing of market consensus formation is uncertain, and it is difficult to grasp the right - side entry rhythm [3][50]. - The central bank's liquidity easing has the highest certainty. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - and high - grade credit bonds as the bottom position, retain some positions in 10 - year treasury bonds, and further increase positions after the signal is clear, while the operation of ultra - long bonds still needs to observe the trend of the equity market in the short term [3][50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in financial markets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the resilience of the foreign exchange, bond, and capital markets [1] Foreign Exchange Market - The PBOC asserts that the market plays a decisive role in the formation of exchange rates, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB despite a volatile external environment [1] - The maturity of market participants and the widespread use of exchange rate hedging tools contribute to the resilience of the foreign exchange market [1] Bond Market - The PBOC monitors and evaluates the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, enhancing regulatory coordination and timely risk alerts to market participants [1] - The bond default rate remains low, indicating overall stability in market operations [1] Capital Market - The PBOC is exploring monetary policy tools to maintain stability in the capital market, collaborating with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to create swap facilities and stock repurchase lending tools [1] - Support for the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. to act as a "stabilization fund" is emphasized, aiming to continuously improve the long-term support mechanisms for the capital market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the central bank's monetary policy, particularly the changes in the 14-day reverse repurchase operations, aim to enhance liquidity management and stabilize the yield curve in the bond market [1][12][16]. Market Overview - The bond market experienced a divergence in performance, with short-term rates slightly declining while long-term rates fluctuated due to various factors, including U.S.-China trade talks and expectations of central bank bond purchases [1][5]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by nearly 1 basis point to 1.80% during the week [1][2]. Yield Curve Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed mixed movements from September 12 to September 19, with notable changes in various maturities, such as a 5.64 basis point increase in the 2-year yield and a 1.19 basis point increase in the 10-year yield [2][3]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 85 bonds were issued in the previous week, amounting to 664.54 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 32.75 billion yuan [7]. - For the upcoming week, 85 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 447.05 billion yuan, including 21.70 billion yuan in government bonds [7]. International Market Context - The U.S. Treasury market weakened following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points to 4.13% [8][11]. - The Fed's recent rate cut is seen as a risk management decision amid economic uncertainties, with expectations of further rate cuts later in the year [9][10]. Institutional Insights - Financial institutions suggest that the recent changes in the central bank's operations could lead to a more effective liquidity management strategy, potentially lowering banks' funding costs and stabilizing the bond market [16][17]. - Analysts predict that bond yields may continue to decline in the coming months due to factors such as slowing economic growth and increased demand for bonds amid a weaker dollar [17][18].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term A - share market may continue to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility should be watched out for. The style may become more balanced in the future, and a defensive allocation is recommended, focusing on opportunities in technology sector rotation, high - dividend, and cyclical sectors. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. - The "watch - the - stock - to - trade - bonds" principle dominates short - term trading, and the bond market is difficult to decline significantly before the stock market cools down [8]. Group 2: Stock Index Strategy Stock Index Trend Review - Last week, the A - share market showed a significant divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index representing large - cap blue - chips fell, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose. The weakness of financial and real - estate sectors dragged down the Shanghai - related indices, while the growth - style sectors provided support for relevant indices [6]. Technical Analysis - The market maintained a differentiated pattern last week. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong, while the SSE 50 was weak. After a ground - volume rebound on a certain day in August, there was a significant volume decline on Thursday, forming a divergence with the previous up - volume. The short - term profit - taking pressure was prominent [6]. Strategy Outlook - Reasonably control positions and pay attention to policies and sector rotation rhythms [6]. Group 3: Treasury Bond Strategy Treasury Bond Trend Review - The bond market oscillated last week. Although the central bank made a net injection, liquidity did not loosen significantly due to tax - period disturbances. Rumors of the central bank's bond - buying operation and the Fed's interest - rate cut provided some support [9]. Technical Analysis - The T - contract K - line oscillated upwards, with the MACD yellow and white lines intertwined, and the BOLL lines still opening downwards [9]. Strategy Outlook - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is recommended to reduce positions in a timely manner [9]. Group 4: Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Both supply and demand sides weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in a certain month dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in a certain month turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term factors such as export - expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors like the shrinking real - estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in a certain month dropped to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.8%. The decline was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering revenue, weak sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25]. Social Financing - In a certain month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [28]. Import and Export - In a certain month, China's exports were $3217.8 billion, imports were $2235.4 billion, and the trade surplus was $982.4 billion. The import and export performance was stronger than expected, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [31]. Group 5: Weekly Focus - The report lists a series of US economic indicators to be focused on, including the second - quarter core PCE price index, personal consumption expenditure, real GDP, and initial jobless claims [33].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a loose liquidity stance, with net injections of 417 billion and 2,685 billion yuan on consecutive days, indicating ongoing monetary support [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued large-scale net injections, but the funding environment showed signs of marginal tightening due to tax periods, with a net withdrawal of 1,950 billion yuan on September 18 [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut in nine months, reflecting rising downside risks in the labor market [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Investment Outlook - August economic data in China fell short of expectations, particularly in infrastructure investment, which saw an expanded year-on-year decline, highlighting persistent issues with domestic demand [3] - The ongoing weakness in the real estate market and insufficient domestic demand suggest that macroeconomic policies may continue to be accommodative, with potential increases in monetary easing [3] - The domestic bond market remains favorable, with expectations of declining bond yields, presenting better entry opportunities for investors [3] Group 3: Investment Products and Features - The Guokai ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market bonds, characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making it a viable investment option [3] - The product features include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, suitable for short-duration allocations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly mentioned in the report regarding the bond market. However, the general tone seems to suggest a cautious view on the bond market, with potential risks and adjustments ahead [27]. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been weakening recently with a divergence in bond varieties. Both bulls and bears in the bond market are currently confused. The report presents multiple reasons for both bullish and bearish outlooks on the bond market and concludes that the risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, with potential for further adjustments within the year [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bullish Reasons - **Bond Supply Mismatch in Q4**: This year, the fiscal bond issuance has been front - loaded, with the remaining quotas for national and local bonds in Q4 at 21.5% and 22.1% respectively, lower than last year's 26.3% and 30.5%. Q4 is also the insurance "opening - up" period, leading to increased allocation demand from insurance companies [7]. - **Favorable Economic Data**: The corporate loans in the social financing data have weakened for two consecutive months, and the economic data in August was generally weak. The production slowed down, with the industrial added - value growth rate in August at 5.2%, down 0.5pct from the previous month. The fixed - asset investment also slowed down. Weak economic data is beneficial for the bond market [8]. - **Monetary Policy and Treasury Bond Transactions**: With a weakening economy, weak social financing and credit, and the Fed's rate cut, there is an increased probability of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in Q4. The adjustment of the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation by the central bank implies a potential rate cut. The discussion on government bond issuance management and central bank's treasury bond transactions also provides room for speculation [12]. Bearish Reasons - **Nominal GDP and Re - inflation**: The "anti - involution" policy has a positive impact on inflation. PPI has shown signs of bottoming out. Nominal GDP may rise due to the narrowing of the GDP deflator, which could be unfavorable for bond yields. Expectations of inflation are also increasing [16]. - **Mutual Fund Redemption Chain Reaction**: Due to weakening profitability and the potential redemption fee, mutual bond funds may face scale shrinkage, which could lead to liquidity and valuation spread pressures on certain bond varieties favored by mutual funds [20]. - **Weak Monetary Policy Coordination**: The monetary policy has not adjusted policy rates. To cooperate with the "anti - involution" policy, interest rates may not be further reduced. The desired growth rate of loans may decline, and the current interest rate level may be appropriate [23]. - **Sustained Breakthrough in the Equity Market**: The equity market has shifted from a situation of "no fundamental support" to "having performance support from specific sectors". This may lead to a long - term trend of capital flowing from the bond market to the equity market [24]. Outlook for Monday - Two news events, a news conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" and a positive phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, may boost risk appetite. The bond and equity markets are likely to have a "risk - on" trading pattern. The risk in the bond market has not been eliminated, and there is still room for adjustment within the year [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly as it has entered the horizontal part of the second L - shaped curve [6]. - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [6]. - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation: bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget - **Income**: From January to August 2025, the national general public budget income increased by 0.3% year - on - year (previous value: 0.1%). In August, the general public budget income increased by 2.0% year - on - year (2.6% in July). Tax revenue increased by 3.4% year - on - year (5.0% in July), with the securities trading stamp duty income surging by 226% year - on - year (125.4% in July), and corporate income tax increasing by 33.4% year - on - year (6.4% in July). Non - tax revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year (- 12.9% in July) [2]. - **Expenditure**: From January to August 2025, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year (3.4% in the previous period). In August, the general public budget expenditure increased by 0.8% year - on - year (3.0% in July). Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs decreased by 16.8% year - on - year (2.9% in July), and agriculture, forestry and water affairs decreased by 22.9% year - on - year (- 6.9% in July) [2][3]. Governmental Fund Budget - **Income**: From January to August 2025, the national governmental fund budget income decreased by 1.4% year - on - year (- 0.7% in the previous period). In August, the governmental fund income decreased by 5.7% year - on - year (8.9% in July), mainly due to the negative year - on - year growth of land transfer income. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the land market is under pressure [4]. - **Expenditure**: From January to August 2025, the national governmental fund budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year (31.7% in the previous period). In August, the governmental fund expenditure increased by 19.8% year - on - year (42.4% in July). Driven by special bonds and special treasury bonds, it still maintained relatively high - speed growth [4]. Market On September 17, the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation in the morning session as the market speculated on the issuance of special treasury bonds. After the issuance of 25 Te Guo 04 exceeded expectations with a winning bid rate of 2.1616%, the long - end yield declined. In the afternoon, the market's expectation of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading fermented, pushing the long - end yield to continue to decline [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Group 2: Report Core Views - For coking coal, the market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the upward momentum depends on "anti - involution" drivers. The coking coal main contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term [1]. - For crude oil, the supply pressure remains, and it is advisable to sell at high prices as the concerns about the US economy outweigh the positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the peak demand season is ending, and the US dollar index rebounds [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly as the global iron ore shipment volume rebounds, the arrival volume fluctuates slightly, the molten iron output fluctuates narrowly at a high level, and the port inventory is expected to increase [4]. - For rebar, the steel price may fluctuate narrowly in the short term as the "Golden September" steel demand recovers slowly, the high - priced resource transactions are poor, the supply - demand fundamentals improve limitedly, and the market sentiment turns cautious [4]. - For live pigs, the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust at a low level in the short term as the supply exceeds demand, but some regions have stopped falling and stabilized [5]. - For palm oil, it may trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic supply is loose, but the cost side provides strong support [5]. - For rapeseed meal, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate downward in the short term as the feed demand decreases significantly and the actual new order volume of spot goods is poor [6]. - For rubber, it should be treated with a range - bound view as it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, with high overseas raw material prices, continuous destocking of spot inventory, and weakening consumption [7]. - For PTA, the spot market may decline under pressure in the short term, and it is advisable to sell at high prices in the short - term as the terminal performance is mediocre in the traditional peak season, the demand support is insufficient, and the cost side is under pressure [7]. - For methanol, the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see as the domestic methanol start - up rate drops from a high level, the downstream demand recovers, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [8]. - For silver, it is expected to fluctuate downward in the medium term and upward in the long term, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted as the initial jobless claims decline shows economic resilience, but the economic downward pressure is still large [9]. - For gold, it is bearish in the short term, and the medium - and long - term trends need further observation as the Fed's interest - rate cut is implemented, and the Fed's independence is controversial [9]. - For medium - and long - term treasury bonds, they may fluctuate in the short term as the issuance of ultra - long - term treasury bonds increases the bond supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut may have limited positive effects on the bond market [10]. - For soda ash, the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the domestic soda ash market stabilizes, the manufacturer's inventory decreases from a high level, and the downstream demand is stable [12]. - For plastics, the L2601 contract is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips as the LLDPE price is stable, the production enterprise inventory decreases, the supply side starts at a high level, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines is 84.7%, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The daily average output of raw coal is 190,000 tons, a 44,000 - ton increase; the raw coal inventory is 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily average output of clean coal is 76,100 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase; the clean coal inventory is 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease [1]. Crude Oil - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory is 2.761 billion barrels, a 2.4 - million - barrel increase from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it is 66.5 million barrels less, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019. The freight rate of large oil tankers soared to the highest level in more than two years on September 18, and the freight rate index (TD3C) of the key route from the Middle East to China reached W108, a nearly 150% increase from the beginning of the year [2]. Iron Ore - From September 8 - 14, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China is 2.3923 million tons, a 180,600 - ton decrease; at 45 ports, it is 2.3623 million tons, an 85,700 - ton decrease; at six northern ports, it is 1.245 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease [4]. Rebar - As of the week ending September 18, the rebar output is 206,450 tons, a 54,800 - ton decrease from last week, a 2.59% decline; the factory inventory is 165,070 tons, a 15,600 - ton decrease, a 0.94% decline; the social inventory is 485,210 tons, a 20,200 - ton decrease, a 0.41% decline; the apparent demand is 210,030 tons, an 119,600 - ton increase, a 6.04% increase [4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" is 117.90, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index is 118.67. The average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 19.55 yuan/kg, a 0.9% decrease from the previous day; the egg price is 8.40 yuan/kg, a 1.6% increase [5]. Palm Oil - In August, China's palm oil imports are 340,000 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.59 million tons, a 13.8% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's soybean oil imports are 100,000 tons, a 113.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 19 tons, an 8.6% year - on - year decrease [5]. Rapeseed Meal - In August, China's imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 140,000 tons, an 18.7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the imports are 1.45 million tons, a 24.1% year - on - year increase. From January to July 2025, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are 1.9756 million tons, accounting for 94.8% of the total rapeseed imports [6]. Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 51.65 Thai baht/kg. The price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 16,300 yuan/ton. In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reach 650,000 tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, China's rubber tire production is 102.954 million pieces, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the production is 795.467 million pieces, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [6][7]. PTA - The PTA social inventory is 3.3091 million tons, a 24,200 - ton decrease from the previous statistical period. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 77.29%, and the polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 88.0% [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,247 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The domestic weekly methanol capacity utilization rate is 79.91%, a 4.68% decrease. The 1.8 - million - ton/year methanol plant of Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 71.87%, a 2.2% weekly increase. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5578 million tons, a 7,500 - ton weekly increase. The sample production enterprise inventory is 340,500 tons, a 2,100 - ton weekly decrease. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 233,800 tons, a 16,900 - ton weekly decrease [8]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, with an expected 240,000 and a previous value revised from 263,000 to 264,000. The number of continuous unemployment benefit claimants remains above the key level of 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [9]. Gold - On the 18th local time, the US government requested the US Supreme Court to allow President Trump to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte publicly accused Cook in August of declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain more favorable mortgage rates and submitted relevant criminal charges to the Department of Justice [9]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The second re - issuance of China's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase 4) in 2025 has completed the tendering process. After the issuance, the overall issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds this year has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [10]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price has been relatively stable recently. The weekly soda ash output is 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% weekly decrease. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week. The national average float glass price is 1,166 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [11][12]. Plastics - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,296 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The weekly LLDPE output is 295,800 tons, a 3.21% weekly increase; the production enterprise inventory is 161,200 tons, a 0.86% weekly decrease. The daily production profit of oil - based LLDPE is - 334 yuan/ton. The average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increases by 1.6% weekly, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increases by 2.6% and that of PE packaging films increases by 0.5% [13].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 17, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 418.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 304 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding conditions remain tight due to ongoing tax payment impacts, with the overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit institutions rising over 4 basis points to around 1.48% [3] - Overnight funding quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system approached 1.6%, indicating scarce supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.51% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.68%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have generally seen a decline in yields [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed collective increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.31%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.10%, and the 2-year by 0.04% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue and Debt Issuance - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with stamp duty revenue at 28.44 billion yuan, up 27.4% [13] - The central bank is actively supporting qualified financial institutions in issuing financial bonds and asset-backed securities to enhance funding sources and improve consumer credit supply capabilities [13] Group 6: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 60 billion yuan of 182-day discount treasury bonds on September 24 [18] - The China Development Bank will issue up to 25 billion yuan of fixed-rate bonds on September 18 [18] - Tencent is set to issue bonds for the first time in four years, raising approximately 9 billion yuan [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the bond market, despite the high probability of continued weakening of economic data, there is still significant adjustment pressure. If the 10Y Treasury bond rate further breaks through to 1.8%, the allocation portfolio gradually becomes cost - effective. If the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the capital side may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, the dumbbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [5]. - Looking at the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Bond Market Performance Review - In the interest - rate bond market, due to the convergence of capital and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the yields of government bonds with different maturities continued to rise this week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose by 2.2 and 5.2 bps to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year government bonds rose by 1 bp to 1.4% [2][11]. - In the interest/credit market, for interest - rate bonds, the adjustment range of yields within 7 years was generally small, while the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose significantly by 4 bp and 7 bp to 1.87% and 2.18% respectively due to fund selling. For credit bonds, the short - end performed better than the long - end, and general credit bonds performed better than secondary perpetual bonds. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AA+ implicit urban investment bond curve rose by 2 bp, 7 bp, and 6 bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AAA - secondary capital bond curve rose by 6 bp, 10 bp, and 10 bp respectively. Currently, the yields of 5 - year credit bonds have generally returned to around 2.15% or higher [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local government bonds: This week, 93.4 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of - 3 billion yuan, including 0 billion yuan of new general bonds, 17.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 16.2 billion yuan of special special bonds), 75.6 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - Government bonds: This week, 349.1 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 289 billion yuan, including 82 billion yuan of special government bonds [19]. - Policy - financial bonds: This week, 120.5 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 80.5 billion yuan [19]. Funding Market Conditions - Overnight and 7 - day funding rates continued to rise at the beginning of the week. Due to the continuous absence of incremental funds, the funding cost rose continuously, and the overnight rate rose above the OMO. R001 rose 9 bp to 1.46% compared with the previous Friday, and R007 rose 3 bp to 1.49%. Until Wednesday, the central bank started incremental investment, and the rise of funding rates gradually stopped. R001 and R007 reached weekly highs of 1.46% and 1.50% respectively. In the following two days, the central bank maintained excess investment, and the funding rates began to decline gradually. R001 closed at 1.40%, and R007 also declined to 1.47% [25]. - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5 and + 3.8 bps respectively compared with last week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1 and - 36.2 bps respectively compared with last week [25]. - The yields of most inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. Although the maturity pressure of certificates of deposit increased this week, banks did not significantly increase the issuance price, and the secondary yields were in a sideways state. The changes in the issuance rates of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were within 1 bp. In terms of issuance maturity, the weighted issuance maturity extended to 6.1 months, compared with 6.0 months in the previous week. Despite the convergence of the capital side, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos still rebounded, with the average trading volume rising from 7.31 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.49 trillion yuan [28]. China's Bond Market Macroeconomic Environment Tracking and Outlook Fundamental Outlook - In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was 0%. The core CPI year - on - year was 0.9%, and the month - on - month was 0%. Most sub - items improved. The non - food part of CPI was weaker than that in July; the food CPI month - on - month was 0.5% (previous value - 0.2%), and the non - food month - on - month was - 0.1% (previous value 0.5%) [37]. - In August, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6% (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was 0%. However, with policy support, the subsequent decline may narrow. From the perspective of sub - items, the prices of production materials continued to decline, and the decline in emerging industries narrowed. The upstream prices stabilized significantly, with the mining and raw materials sectors turning positive month - on - month, and the processing industry returning to zero growth month - on - month. In key industries, the month - on - month of coal mining, coal processing, ferrous metal smelting, and electric power and heat all turned from negative to positive. The month - on - month of downstream automobile manufacturing was still - 0.3%, but the drag may mainly come from fuel - powered vehicles [40]. - In August, exports denominated in US dollars decreased year - on - year to 4.4%, mainly dragged down by the decline in exports to the United States. The trade surplus remained at a high level. From the perspective of export countries, in August, exports to the United States decreased year - on - year by - 33.1% (previous value - 21.7%); exports to the EU increased year - on - year by 10.4% (previous value 9.2%); exports to Japan increased year - on - year by 6.7% (previous value 2.5%); exports to ASEAN increased year - on - year by 22.5% (previous value 16.6%); exports to Latin America decreased year - on - year by - 2.3% (previous value 7.7%). From the perspective of major products, there was an obvious differentiation between high - end and low - end products. In August, the combined year - on - year of the four labor - intensive products was - 7.7%; the combined year - on - year of electronic products (mobile phones, automatic data processing equipment) was - 8.1%; the year - on - year of household appliance exports was - 6.6%, all with relatively low growth rates. The growth rate of general machinery and equipment was moderately 4.3%. The high - growth sectors were mainly in the high - end equipment field, including integrated circuits (year - on - year 32.8%), automobiles (year - on - year 17.3%), and ships (year - on - year 35%) [5][36]. - In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%. The sub - items of commodity retail all improved to varying degrees; the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6%, remaining in a slump, indicating that there was still significant pressure for price recovery. At the same time, the credit data was to be released in the next week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the bill rate to zero at the end of the month, the social financing data in July might not be optimistic [46]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week. Under the continuous global trend of "de - dollarization", the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the tone of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, the central bank may maintain a loose tone. This week, the central bank had a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan, including 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase investment and 1068.4 billion yuan of maturities [45]. - Due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is still relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to be loose rather than tight. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations. Whether dealing with external shocks or stabilizing the domestic situation, a loose tone is still an important foundation [46]. Bond Market Outlook - Looking forward to the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46].