（来源：远东资信） 摘要 宏观经济方面，1-11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.1%，增速较前十个月放缓1.8个百分点， 自8月以来累计增速连续四个月保持增长。国家统计局对2024年GDP数据进行最终核实，2024年GDP现 价总量为1348066亿元，比初步核算数减少1018亿元；按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%，与初步核算 数持平。从全球来看，12月26日，10年期美债收益率较周初下行3BP至4.14%，有效联邦基金利率为 3.64%，较前期持平。2025年11月，美国经季节调整的非农就业人数增加6.4万人，10月非农就业人数减 少10.5万人，9月非农就业人数从增加11.9万人下修至增加10.8万人，8月非农就业人数从减少0.4万人下 修至减少2.6万人，合计下修3.3万人。11月失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来最高值。欧元区基准利 率维持2.15%，日本基准利率维持0.75%。 债券市场方面，从无风险收益率来看，上周10年期国债收益率维持在1.84%左右，2年期国债收益率整 体有所下行。12月26日，10年期国债到期收益率较周初持平为1.8376%，2年期国债到期收益率较周初 下行3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].

Bond markets wait for minutes of the Fed's December meeting, to be released tomorrow, as the last week of the year gets underway.The central bank cut rates in that meeting with unusually high disagreement among officials, while signaling a possible hold in January, which markets are pricing in.November pending home sales data is due at 10 a.m. ET. ...

| | | 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3963.68 | 4657.24 | 3045.40 | 3243.88 | 7458.84 | | 涨跌（%） | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.65 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.13 | 11.78 | 33.61 | 27.68 | 18.84 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | - | - | - | -0.52 | - | | 环比变化 | - | - | - | 0.00 | - | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪深300 | | 最新 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，站在新旧年更替的此刻，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，制约 居民消费的核心矛盾是什么？如何看待促消费政策从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变？"十五五"后，货 币政策还有哪些发力空间？后续黄金走势将如何演绎？围绕上述问题，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊近日 接受了北京商报记者的专访。 2026年提升消费率是主线索之一 北京商报：2025年，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优 化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可 持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 郭磊：中央经济工作会议指出"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"，正是在这一判断基础上，政策进一步指出"必 须充分挖掘经济潜能"，消费作为需求端的主要组成部分，在政策框架中的位置自然是十分重要的。 2026年作为"十五五"首年，提升消费率毫无疑问是主线索之一。 政策侧重点可能会有所变化，这两年我们的"以旧换新"集中于耐用消费品，这一部分需求 ...

智通财经整理） 交易所债券市场收盘，据Choice 数据统计显示，今日交易所市场非金信用债涨幅排行前五的分别是： 22万科04、24深铁06、22万科02、23万科01、21万科04。具体如下： | | | | | 交易所非金信用债涨幅TOP10 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新收盘价 | 液幅(%) | 成交额(万元) | 最新YTM | YTM漆跌BP | 债券评级 | | 149931 | 22万科04 | 26.6525 | 18.46 | 2.85 | 55.4134 | -850.35 | AAA | | 148641 | 24元 06 | 100.3095 | 2.96 | 1404.33 | 2.93 | -27.04 | AAA | | 149815 | 22万科02 | 23.3245 | 2.28 | 81.54 | 239.25 | -475 | AAA | | 148380 | 23万科01 | 25.0166 | 2.13 | 819.28 | 504,294 | -13 ...

格隆汇12月23日｜中信证券发布报告，展望2026年，预计我国宏观经济将呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，经济增速或前低后高，出口保持韧性，投 资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。A股市场：展望2026年，A股全球营收敞口企业已不局限于少数公司，而足以推动整个A股的行情，未来A股的基本面 要放在全球市场需求去看。中美签署协议后到美国中期选举前，预计中美格局相对最稳定，这个阶段是做多权益市场的黄金期。从市场流动性来看， 追求稳健回报的绝对收益资金持续入市，一定程度上将推动A股宽基指数波动率步入长期下行通道。建议重视三大线索：①资源/传统制造产业提质升 级；②中企出海与全球化；③新应用打开AI商业化空间。 全球市场：2026年全球经济或进入更柔和而明朗的增长基调，美国经济应能温和增长、欧元区内需有望修复、日本表现或不温不火，财政扩张料将支 持经济动能。美联储独立性与美元信用是资产配置的核心影响因素。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 债券市场：利率债方面，预计2026年10年国债收益率或在1.6%~1.9%区间震荡，呈"先下后上"节奏；信用债方面，科创债的扩容发行或重塑2026年的信 用主线；可转债挑战重重，机遇仍存 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.165 | 4.535 | 3.611 | 2.897 | 3.598 | 3.332 | 0.307 | 3.482 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.077 | 6.184 | 1.835 | - | 4.794 | 4.475 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.508 | 3.736 | 2.147 | 1.113 | 2.262 | 1.356 | - | 4.075 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market rebounded for several days, and the net inflow of bond ETFs increased significantly. The bond ETF market is expected to resonate with the recovery trend of underlying bond assets at the end of the year and benefit from the year - end market [3][6]. - The capital flow is highly concentrated in science - innovation bond ETFs, which are the main contributor to the net inflow [3][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs last week were +2.937 billion yuan, +14.569 billion yuan, and - 1.730 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 15.776 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The year - to - date net inflow reached 462.608 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, the bond ETF fund size was 74.3012 billion yuan, up 2.88% from the previous week's close and 313.31% from the beginning of the year. The net inflow scale increased by 264.3% compared with the previous week, mainly driven by credit bond ETFs [3][6]. - The science - innovation bond ETFs had the largest net inflow of 15.965 billion yuan last week, followed by local government bond ETFs (+2.483 billion yuan) and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs (+1.066 billion yuan). The short - term financing ETF had the largest net outflow of 2.795 billion yuan, followed by convertible bond ETFs (-1.730 billion yuan) [7]. 3.2 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of the close on December 19, 2025, the share changes of treasury bond ETFs, policy - financial bond ETFs, local government bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs compared with December 12, 2025, were 0.46%, 0.49%, 15.94%, 1.99%, and - 2.68% respectively, and the total change in bond - type ETFs was 0.33%. The announcement of the central government allocating 500 billion yuan from the local debt balance limit to supplement local finances on December 15 might be the direct catalyst for the increase in local government bond ETF shares [20]. 3.3 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of major bond ETFs decreased, with the convertible bond ETF having the largest net outflow of shares. As of the close on December 19, 2025, the share changes of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF compared with December 12, 2025, were - 14.02 million shares, - 2.52 million shares, no change, no change, and - 92.90 million shares respectively [22]. - The net values of major bond ETFs were boosted. As of the close on December 19, 2025, compared with December 12, 2025, the net value changes of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local government bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF were 0.43%, 0.17%, 0.05%, 0.03%, and 0.44% respectively [26]. 3.4 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share performance of the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs was divergent. As of the close on December 19, 2025, compared with December 9, 2025, the share changes of these ETFs were - 4.50 million shares, 1.00 million shares, no change, no change, 10.00 million shares, 15.00 million shares, - 6.00 million shares, and - 3.80 million shares respectively [29]. - The net values of all 8 ETFs increased. As of the close on December 19, 2025, compared with December 12, 2025, the net value changes of these ETFs were 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.07%, 0.07%, and 0.06% respectively [30]. 3.5 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The tracking indexes of science - innovation bond ETFs with leading share increases were mostly AAA science - innovation bonds. The net share inflow of the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs last week was 369.32 million shares, a 15.10% increase from the previous week. The top three products in terms of share inflow were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF ICBC [35]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs rebounded slightly. As of the close on December 19, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.04% and 0.05% respectively compared with the previous week's close [37]. 3.6 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - Benefiting from the strong bond market, the net values of bond ETF products generally increased. The 30 - year treasury bond ETF, convertible bond ETF, and 30 - year treasury bond ETF Bosera had the leading increases of 0.46%, 0.44%, and 0.41% respectively. The net value and share trends of the convertible bond ETF were divergent, possibly due to capital cashing in floating profits [40]. - In terms of premium/discount rates, the benchmark treasury bond ETF, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Taikang, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng had the leading premium rates of 0.04%, 0.02%, and 0.02% respectively. In terms of scale changes, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest (+5.346 billion yuan), Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia (+3.666 billion yuan), and 0 - 4 Local Government Bond ETF (+2.440 billion yuan) had the top three net inflows, while the short - term financing ETF, 30 - year treasury bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF had the top net outflows of - 2.795 billion yuan, - 1.607 billion yuan, and - 1.247 billion yuan respectively [40].

上周五银行间流动性维持宽松态势，隔夜资金价格持稳、DR007加权略升，当日央行净回笼193亿元。 本周一资金面延续宽松，7天资金价格下行，当日央行净投放1286亿元。本周二资金面维持平稳宽松， 资金利率整体变动不大，当日央行净投放180亿元。本周三税期影响渐退，资金面进一步宽松，当日央 行净回笼1430亿元。本周四银央行重启14天逆回购释放流动性，资金面延续平稳宽松，当日央行投放 697亿元。本周四（12月18日）相较于上周五，DR001收平于1.28%，DR007下行3bp收于 1.44%。 海外方面，美国国家经济委员会主席凯文·哈塞特表示，如果他被选中领导美联储，他会考虑总统特朗 普的政策意见，总统"对于我们应该做什么，有着非常坚定和充分的看法"。"但最终，美联储的职责是 保持独立，并与理事会和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的成员们合作，就利率的定位达成集体共 识。"。美国11月季调后非农就业人口增6.4万人，预期增5万人；失业率为4.6%，创2021年9月以来新 高，预期4.4%；就业参与率为62.5%，预期62.4%；平均每小时工资同比升3.5%，预期升3.6%；环比升 0.1%，预期升0.3%。美国 ...