Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, major domestic stock indices rebounded across the board, with large-cap indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index rising by 1.23%, 1.27%, and 2.11% respectively, and small and medium-cap indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.78%, 2.51%, and 0.49% respectively. Style indices also rose across the board, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable style indices rising by 1.56%, 3.49%, 0.77%, 1.87%, and 1.24% respectively [1][8]. - The trading volume of domestic stock ETFs decreased last week. The total trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 45.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.091 billion yuan from the previous week, and the total trading volume of theme ETFs was 62.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.671 billion yuan from the previous week [1][2]. - In terms of fund performance, among comprehensive ETFs, the top three performers were 1000ETF, 500ETF, and 800ETF, with increases of 2.60%, 1.75%, and 1.39% respectively, while the bottom three were ChiNext, ChiNext 50, and Sci - Tech Innovation and ChiNext 50ETF, with increases of 0.39%, 0.48%, and 0.50% respectively. Among industry - themed ETFs, the top three were Colorful Metals ETF, Military Industry ETF, and Resources ETF, with increases of 5.96%, 5.74%, and 4.99% respectively, while the bottom three were Computer, Biomedical, and Pharmaceutical ETFs, with decreases of 1.44%, 0.82%, and 0.73% respectively [3][32]. - In terms of capital flow, most broad - based indices in comprehensive ETFs had small net capital outflows, while small and medium - cap ETFs such as the CSI 1000 and ChiNext had capital inflows. In industry themes, heavy - weight sectors such as securities, coal, and colorful metals had large capital inflows [3][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Fund Market Overview 1.1 Stock Market - Last week (2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08), major domestic stock indices rose across the board. Large - cap indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index rose by 1.23%, 1.27%, and 2.11% respectively, and small and medium - cap indices such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index rose by 1.78%, 2.51%, and 0.49% respectively. Style indices also rose across the board, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable style indices rising by 1.56%, 3.49%, 0.77%, 1.87%, and 1.24% respectively. Under the growth style, large - cap growth, medium - cap growth, and small - cap growth style indices rose by 1.38%, 1.54%, and 1.55% respectively [1][8]. - The trading activity of the A - share market has been fluctuating upwards recently and is currently close to the level in December 2024. The overall trading volume of the market has been fluctuating in the past year, with a significant rebound from September to November, a decline from December to January, bottom - level fluctuations from February to May, and a rebound from June to July [9]. 1.2 Bond Market and Futures Market - Last week, the SSE Convertible Bond index rose by 2.25%. Pure - bond indices rose across the board, with the SSE Treasury Bond, SSE Corporate Bond, and Shenzhen Local Government Bond indices rising by 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.14% respectively. - The main contracts of major stock index futures had mixed performance, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 rising by 1.31%, 1.07%, and 2.04% respectively. The prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.18%, 0.10%, and 0.03% respectively [16][17]. 1.3 Commodity Market - In the past week, the commodity market had mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index, Nanhua Black Index, and Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index rose by 2.94%, 1.76%, and 1.29% respectively. The main contracts of domestic key commodity futures also had mixed performance, with the DCE Coking Coal, SHFE Silver, and DCE Coke contracts rising by 10.04%, 3.98%, and 2.23% respectively [18][22]. 2. ETF Market Quotation Statistics - The report selects the most representative ETFs in different sectors of comprehensive and industry themes for long - term tracking through indicators such as fund scale and trading volume. Tracking and monitoring indicators such as large - and small - cap style classification, changes in circulating shares, net buying funds, and trading volume of the selected ETFs can serve as a reference for market style switching and capital flow [24]. 2.1 Domestic Stock - type ETF Trading Activity Ranking - Using the weekly fund turnover rate (trading volume (shares)/on - market circulating shares (shares)) as a measure of ETF trading activity, a high weekly fund turnover rate indicates that there may be significant differences in the market's view of a certain sector, which requires attention. - Last week, trading hotspots were mainly concentrated in comprehensive indices such as ChiNext 50 and ChiNext, and sectors such as Military Industry ETF, Coal ETF, and Steel ETF [25]. 3. Large - and Small - Cap Style Monitoring 3.1 Comprehensive Stock ETF - As of last week, in terms of trading volume, the trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 45.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.091 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, the trading volume of large - and medium - cap style comprehensive ETFs was 20.229 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.326 billion yuan, and the trading volume of small and medium - cap comprehensive ETFs was 25.593 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.109 billion yuan. - In terms of on - market shares, the on - market shares of comprehensive ETFs were 361.256 billion shares, a decrease of 2.007 billion shares from the previous week. Among them, the on - market shares of large - and medium - cap style comprehensive ETFs were 239.237 billion shares, a decrease of 1.161 billion shares, and the on - market shares of small and medium - cap comprehensive ETFs were 122.019 billion shares, a decrease of 0.846 billion shares [27]. 3.2 Theme Stock ETF - As of last week, the average weekly increase or decrease of 32 theme ETFs was 1.39%. Among them, the average weekly increase of large - cap style ETFs was 2.24%, and the average weekly increase of small and medium - cap style ETFs was 0.72%. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of the tracked theme ETFs was 62.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.671 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, the trading volume of large - cap style ETFs was 29.876 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.961 billion yuan, and the trading volume of small and medium - cap style ETFs was 32.317 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.710 billion yuan. - The on - market shares of the tracked theme ETFs were 404.065 billion shares, a decrease of 0.011 billion shares from the previous week. Among them, the on - market shares of large - and medium - cap style theme ETFs were 171.647 billion shares, an increase of 3.032 billion shares, and the on - market shares of small and medium - cap style theme ETFs were 232.418 billion shares, a decrease of 3.143 billion shares [29]. 4. Sector Capital Flow Tracking - As of last week, among comprehensive ETFs, the top three performers were 1000ETF, 500ETF, and 800ETF, with increases of 2.60%, 1.75%, and 1.39% respectively, while the bottom three were ChiNext, ChiNext 50, and Sci - Tech Innovation and ChiNext 50ETF, with increases of 0.39%, 0.48%, and 0.50% respectively. Among industry - themed ETFs, the top three were Colorful Metals ETF, Military Industry ETF, and Resources ETF, with increases of 5.96%, 5.74%, and 4.99% respectively, while the bottom three were Computer, Biomedical, and Pharmaceutical ETFs, with decreases of 1.44%, 0.82%, and 0.73% respectively. - In terms of capital flow, most broad - based indices in comprehensive ETFs had small net capital outflows, while small and medium - cap ETFs such as the CSI 1000 and ChiNext had capital inflows. In industry themes, heavy - weight sectors such as securities, coal, and colorful metals had large capital inflows [32]. 5. Commodity ETF - Last week, the tracked commodity ETFs had mixed performance. Gold ETF, Bosera Gold, Soybean Meal ETF, Colorful Metals Futures, and Energy and Chemicals rose or fell by 2.12%, 2.11%, 1.48%, 0.59%, and - 1.41% respectively. - In terms of the overall on - market shares of the tracked commodity ETFs, there was a decrease of 0.007 billion shares from the previous week, and in terms of the overall trading volume, there was a decrease of 2.742 billion yuan from the previous week [37]. 6. Overseas ETF - Last week, among the tracked overseas ETFs, the Nasdaq ETF, H - share ETF, and Hang Seng ETF rose or fell by 0.96%, - 0.17%, and 0.26% respectively. - In terms of the overall on - market shares of the tracked overseas ETFs, there was an increase of 0.033 billion shares from the previous week, and in terms of the overall trading volume, there was a decrease of 0.659 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. 7. Money Market ETF - As of the end of last week, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.32%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week, and the one - week SHIBOR was 1.43%, a decrease of 0.06% from the previous week. The seven - day annualized yield of Huabao Tianyi was 1.03%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous week, and the seven - day annualized yield of Yinhua Rili was 1.02%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week. - In terms of on - market shares, the on - market shares of Huabao Tianyi were 74.736 billion shares, a decrease of 0.503 billion shares from the previous week, and the on - market shares of Yinhua Rili were 67.852 billion shares, an increase of 1.856 billion shares from the previous week [43].

分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 近期研究报告 《信用修复的节奏如何？——信用周 报 20250806》 - 2025.08.06 固收周报 预期分歧是布局机会 ——流动性周报 20250810 ⚫ 行情可以布局，不能追赶 观点回顾：10 年期国债在 1.75%的中期顶部意义可能受到挑战， 但仍相对可靠，向下回到窄波动区间后，1.65%的波动中枢位置依然 有效。维持"长端收益率下行的胜率并未实质性降低，赔率在调整中 有所提升"的判断。下半年，随着 8 月后政府债券发行的减少，政策 利率下调的重新酝酿，以及基本面压力的兑现，利率下行空间仍有打 开的可能。 多数机构对于债券市场的预期是"短空长多"，但对"短空"的 具体走势存在分歧。多数机构对于基本面"前高后低"的预期未变， 对于供给压力即将减少的判断未变，对于债市长期看多的观点未变。 债市无远虑，却有近忧，且收益率低点屡次未破之后机构对于收益率 的下行空间不报太多期待。大类资产轮动到债券的"垃圾时间"，债券 性价比偏低已经成为现实，交易盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity abundance drives a dual - bull market in stocks and bonds, but export data interferes with the bond market. The 7 - day OMO of the central bank was in a net - withdrawal state last week, yet the capital market remained loose. The short - term asset yields declined due to loose funds, and the mid - and long - term yields also had downward support after the weak bond market sentiment recovered. However, the July export data and the establishment of the Xinzang Railway Company triggered the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, restricting the downward space of ultra - long - term interest rates [2][87]. - The pricing focus of taxation is more inclined to new bonds, and the curve valuation may face upward pressure. The ChinaBond Valuation Center will gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it. The winning bid rate of new local bonds on August 8 was higher than the valuation of the same - term old bonds, indicating that the pricing focus has shifted to new bonds. Potential tax policy changes may also push up the valuation center [2][88]. - Ample funds are beneficial for short - term interest rates to maintain good performance, and the curve shape may continue to steepen. The previous negative sentiment in the bond market has weakened, and the bond market pricing may become more neutral. Short - term interest rates are expected to perform well, while the downward space of long - term interest rates may be restricted. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option [2][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On August 8, the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multiple - price - winning bid buy - back operation. After this operation, the buy - back was still in a net - withdrawal state as the August maturity scale was 9000 billion yuan [5]. - China's export in July 2025 reached 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, the highest growth rate since April. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 9.2% and 16.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year [7]. - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre - school education, covering all kindergarten senior - class children and eligible private kindergarten children [9]. - On August 8, 2025, the Xinzang Railway Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan, marking the start of the substantial construction of the Xinzang Railway project [12]. - On August 7, the ChinaBond Valuation Center announced that it would gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it [13]. 3.2 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends**: From August 4 to 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The policy interest rate for the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 8, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.341%, 1.454%, 1.312%, and 1.425% respectively, with changes compared to August 1 [15][20]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Commercial bank certificates of deposit had a net financing of 177.31 billion yuan last week, with city commercial banks having the largest issuance scale. The 1 - year issuance rate of national and share - holding banks dropped to around 1.63%. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [24][29]. 3.3 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 8, the cumulative net financing of national bonds and local bonds in 2025 was about 4.37 trillion yuan and 5.27 trillion yuan respectively. The actual issuance of local government bonds in July was lower than expected, which may lead to an increase in the actual supply in August - September. Last week, the issuance and net financing of national bonds increased significantly, while the issuance of local bonds slowed down. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds has reached 1.84 trillion yuan as of August 8 [34][41][42]. - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the market showed a bull - steepening trend. The short - and medium - term interest rates declined due to loose funds, while the ultra - long - term interest rates increased due to export data and strong risk assets. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year national bond and national development bond active bonds decreased. The term spread and the spread between national and local bonds showed different trends [46][50][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leveraged trading volume recovered last week due to loose funds. The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week [67]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks mainly bought national bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of national bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years, and securities firms and funds had a stronger buying force for national bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [70]. - The current加仓 cost of major trading desks for 10 - year national bonds is between 1.69% - 1.70% [74]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, cathode copper, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased compared to the previous week, while the BDI index increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the prices of pork and glass also declined, while the price of vegetables increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [84]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may continue to show a steepening trend. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option. Specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP growth having slight fluctuations while trade maintains an upward - positive momentum [1][2] - The global commodity market is influenced by multiple factors such as central bank policies, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical situations, leading to different trends in various commodities [4][5][9] - The financial market presents complex characteristics including bond market fluctuations, exchange rate changes, and the potential of capital market support for科创 enterprises [19][24][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, both showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - In June 2025, social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and financial institution RMB loans all had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year [1] - In June 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 2.8% year - to - date, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5% [1] - In July 2025, export and import values showed year - on - year growth, with exports growing 7.2% and imports growing 4.1% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's trade in July 2025 maintained growth, with exports (in RMB) up 8% and imports up 4.8%, and a trade surplus of 7051 billion yuan [2] - The July 2025 China warehousing index was 50.1%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace, and new orders for bulk commodity warehousing increased [2] - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [3] - There are differences within the Fed regarding interest - rate policies, increasing the uncertainty of monetary policy [3] 3.2.2 Metals - China's central bank increased its gold reserves in July 2025 for the 9th consecutive month, and global central banks' gold purchases are an important support for gold demand [4] - China's July 2025 rare - earth exports decreased 23% month - on - month, while soybean imports reached a record high and coal imports rebounded [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust's gold holdings increased 0.66% to 959.09 tons as of August 7 [5][6] - Dutch International Bank raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3250 per ounce [5] - London Metal Exchange inventory data on August 6 showed different trends for various metals [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous ten - day period [7] - In the first 7 months of 2025, China's imports of some commodities like iron ore decreased in quantity and price, while others like crude oil had different trends [7] - On August 7, stainless - steel and nickel futures prices rose, boosting market confidence [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 7, international oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase plans, weak US economic data, and other factors [9] - A German energy company plans to purchase more natural gas from the US in the future [9] - Citi predicts that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year [9] - Chevron's oil tankers will load oil in Venezuela later this month [9] - Germany's natural gas storage is lower than last year but replenishment is ongoing [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Philippines will suspend rice imports for 60 days starting September 1, which may affect global rice prices [10] - Most listed pig - raising companies had a decrease in pig sales volume in July 2025 compared to June, and pig and pork prices remained at a low level [10][11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On August 7, the central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan [12] - On August 8, the central bank will conduct 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operations, and analysts expect the central bank to maintain market liquidity through various tools [12] 3.3.2 Important News and Information - S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating and outlook, and China's macro - policies will continue to support the economy in the second half of the year [13] - The trading association strengthened the self - regulation of bond underwriting quotes [14] - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased, while gold reserves increased for the 9th consecutive month [14] - In July 2025, China's foreign trade reached a new high for the year, with exports and imports both growing [14] - The mechanism to support small - and micro - enterprise financing has achieved certain results [15] - The government will strengthen the governance of prominent issues in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit in enterprise - related matters [15] - In July 2025, the real - estate industry's bond financing increased significantly, and the average financing interest rate decreased [16] - The capital market will strengthen support for science - and technology innovation enterprises [17] - Hong Kong plans to strengthen the regulation of licensed money - lenders [17] - There were various events in the bond market including self - regulation, bondholder meetings, and credit rating adjustments [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market showed a generally volatile and slightly stronger trend, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declining [19] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The convertible bond index decreased slightly, with some bonds having significant gains or losses [20] - On August 7, money - market interest rates showed different trends, and Shibor short - end rates mostly decreased [21] - Bank - to - bank and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and some bond - issuing and trading operations had specific results [22] - European and US bond yields had different trends [22][23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On August 7, the on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [24] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research expects the convertible bond market to follow the positive trend of the underlying stocks in August [25] - CITIC Securities believes that the economic fundamentals have limited risks, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds in the short term [25] - Western Securities' fixed - income research shows that bond funds increased leverage in Q2 2025, and the duration of most types of bond funds reached a historical high [25] - Shenwan Hongyuan's fixed - income research predicts the 10 - year Treasury bond's trading range from August to October and points out potential risks [26] - CICC believes that the US economy improved in July 2025, and there are potential impacts on the US stock market and bond yields in the short term, but risk assets have long - term potential [26] - CICC's fixed - income research expects the bond market to continue to fluctuate, and credit spreads may follow interest - rate fluctuations [27] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On August 8, 227 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 151 bonds will be paid, and 186 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [28] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - On August 7, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with some sectors performing strongly and others weakly [29] - The Hong Kong stock market rose, and real - estate and non - ferrous metals led the gains [29] - MSCI adjusted its global index, adding and removing some stocks [29] - The National Healthcare Security Administration held meetings on "healthcare insurance support for innovative medical devices" with participation from many top - tier institutions [29]

对于债市影响方面，中信建投（601066）期货孙玉龙表示，受国债等债券利息收入恢复征税影响，近期债券远期收益率预期上升，近远月价差进 一步扩张。但从长期来看，"反内卷"和恢复征收增值税对债市的影响时间较短且力度有限，反而提供了做多长债的机会，债市长期升势不改。 鹏扬30年国债ETF(511090)是目前市场上首只跟踪中债30年期国债指数的ETF，具备T+0交易属性，既可使得投资者日内低买高卖博取收益，也可 帮助投资者快速拉长组合久期或用作对冲权益仓位。该产品可以作为客户的高弹性现金管理工具和组合久期调节工具，短期在市场利率波动放大 时，具备较强的交易属性，长期在低利率的背景下，具备较强的配置属性，值得投资者积极关注。 风险提示：本处所列示信息仅用于沟通交流之目的，仅供参考，不构成对任何个股的投资建议。"基金有风险，投资需谨慎" 央行今日开展1607亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.40%，与此前持平。银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅震荡，截至昨日下午16:30，10年期国债 活跃券250011收益率下行0.5bp报1.699%，10年期国开债活跃券250210收益率上行0.1bp报1.796%，30年期国债活跃券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy on bond interest income, reinstating a 3% value-added tax (VAT) on newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, while maintaining tax exemptions for bonds issued before this date until maturity [1][2][4]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy creates a "new and old distinction," allowing existing public funds that invest in government bonds to retain significant tax advantages, as they continue to enjoy exemptions on interest income and capital gains [4][5]. - The tax exemption for existing bonds may lead to a "bond grabbing" trend, pushing down the interest rate curve as investors seek to acquire older bonds before the new tax takes effect [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The anticipated tax changes are expected to create trading opportunities in the bond market, particularly for existing government bonds, as the current yield on 10-year government bonds is around 1.7%, making the 3% tax impact significant [4][9]. - The bond market is currently experiencing a recovery in bond fund sizes, with a notable increase in the proportion of bonds held in various fund categories, indicating a shift towards longer durations to capture higher capital gains amid declining interest rates [7]. Fund Performance and Rankings - As of the end of Q2, the total net asset value of fixed-income assets held by public and asset management companies reached 10.75 trillion yuan, with notable growth in several funds, including Bosera Fund and E Fund, which ranked first and second respectively [5][6]. - The rankings of fixed-income asset sizes show significant movements, with several funds advancing in their positions compared to previous quarters, reflecting the competitive landscape in the bond fund market [6]. Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to face short-term pressure due to recent market fluctuations, but the overall outlook remains positive with expectations of a downward trend in yields as the market stabilizes [8][9]. - The impact of the new tax policy on the bond market is viewed as a one-time adjustment, with future market movements likely influenced by fundamental economic conditions and monetary policy [9].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading to notable increases in both stock and commodity markets since July [2] - The GDP growth rate has remained robust, exceeding 5% for three consecutive quarters, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] - The bond market has shown a bearish trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to a peak of 1.73%, an increase of 10 basis points from early July [1] Group 2 - The recent meetings have indicated a shift towards more moderate language regarding the "anti-involution" policies, suggesting a reliance on market-driven methods rather than strict regulatory measures [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new tax policy that will impose VAT on newly issued bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which aims to correct tax burden discrepancies and enhance fiscal revenue [3] - The impact of the tax adjustment on the bond market is expected to be limited, with the focus shifting back to fundamental economic conditions [4] Group 3 - The economic landscape is characterized by a divergence in performance, with strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, slow investment, and weak real estate [4] - The central bank has maintained a stable liquidity environment, effectively managing tax-related disruptions in July, and is expected to continue this trend in August [4] - The overall outlook for the bond market remains cautious, lacking strong upward momentum due to stable economic fundamentals and weakened expectations for significant monetary easing [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell due to multiple factors, with the yield curve showing a flattening trend. The resumption of VAT on bonds has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced, which may drive the outsourcing demand of bank self - operations. Next week, fund rates are expected to remain stable, while the supply pressure of treasury bonds will increase. The current bond market strategy suggests maintaining a defensive stance and seizing structural opportunities [2][3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From July 28 to August 1, treasury bond yields first rose and then fell. The fund - side was first loose and then tight, remaining generally loose. Important policy events were successively implemented, and the manufacturing PMI in July fell below the boom - bust line. Overall, yields of treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. For example, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.01BP, 2.65BP, and 2.35BP respectively, and the yield curve showed a flattening trend [2][12]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Fund - side - From July 28 to August 1, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 69.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 16,632.00 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 16,563.00 billion yuan maturing. The fund - side was stable across the month, and the fund rate center declined. The differences in fund costs between non - bank institutions and banks increased, and the term spread of FR007S5Y - FR007S1Y converged [23][24]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - From July 28 to August 1, the total issuance of interest - rate bonds decreased, while the net financing increased. The issuance of government bonds decreased, and the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit also decreased. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased [41][44]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Impact of Resuming VAT on the Bond Market - Starting from August 8, 2025, VAT will be resumed on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. This has a limited negative impact on the bond market, and credit bonds may see value re - evaluation opportunities. The tax advantage of public funds over bank self - operations is further enhanced. The market impact after the implementation of the new policy needs to closely track the primary - market issuance [3][52]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook - After crossing the month, fund rates are expected to remain stable. Next week, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 4130.00 billion yuan, significantly higher than this week, and the supply pressure will increase [59][60]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy - For interest - rate bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds above 1.70% have allocation value, with 1.80% regarded as the upper - limit pressure. For credit bonds, seize the value re - evaluation opportunities brought by the resumption of VAT on interest - rate bonds. In the convertible bond market, focus on equity - balanced varieties. This week, pay attention to the primary - market issuance results of local government bonds on August 8, the central bank's liquidity injection through various tools in July, and inflation data [7][61]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - As of August 1, 2025, yields of US treasury bonds generally declined, and the term spread widened. The US dollar index rose, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased slightly. Gold and crude oil prices rose, while silver prices fell [63][68].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

中信建投研报称，上周债券市场调整后趋于稳定。随着中央政治局会议的召开及中美斯德哥尔摩举行经 贸会谈的结束，短期市场影响因素暂时落地。考虑到财政部对国债、地方债等券种恢复征收增值税，新 老债券划断效应或在下周显现，短期内以老券为主的二级市场或有适度走强。点位方面，信用利差冲高 回落，当前AAA中短票利差修复至22BP一线，位于中期低位。这一位置体现了最近数月20—30BP的利 差波动区间的相对稳定性。从机构行为来看，银行继续保持抛售态势，而保险、理财等负债稳定机构的 买入力量在增加。配置盘力量的增强或使债市振幅逐渐减少。综合来看，短期债市有一定走强倾向，可 关注后续增量消息带来的新方向。 ...