Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to remain in a bull market environment in the second half of 2025, with government bonds offering good investment value [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the China Government Bond Index for 3-5 year bonds has increased by 1.04% over the past three months [1]. - The E Fund 3-5 Year Government Bond Index Fund (001512) is the only off-market bond fund tracking the government bond index, available for purchase through various platforms [1]. Group 2: Fund Characteristics - The E Fund 3-5 Year Government Bond Index Fund closely tracks the China Government Bond Index, primarily investing in 3-5 year government bonds with low credit risk [1]. - The fund has achieved a one-year return of 3.39% and a three-year return of 9.44%, with an annualized return of 3.16% since its inception in July 2015 [1]. - The fund's scale reached approximately 1.31 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 this year, reflecting a 13-fold increase compared to the same period last year [1]. Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The fund employs sampling replication and dynamic optimization for its investment portfolio, maintaining high transparency and low fees [2]. - The management fee is currently set at 0.15% per year, with a custody fee of 0.05% per year, which is among the lowest in the industry [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from a favorable fundamental environment, with potential further easing of monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Government bonds are considered a good choice for conservative investors due to their high safety and stability [3].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market has been relatively stable, with the 10Y government bond yield fluctuating within 1 basis point daily, and a weekly decline of 0.44 basis points to 1.640% under a loose liquidity environment [2][8] - The report defines a "bond bull" market as a scenario where the 10Y government bond yield is in a downward trend, lasting at least one month with a decline of at least 20 basis points and a maximum pullback of 5 basis points [3][11] - Since 2022, there have been four instances of "bond bull" markets that meet the defined criteria, with the most recent one starting on October 24, 2024, and lasting until January 6, 2025, with a total decline of 56.95 basis points [3][13] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the report highlights that a weakening economic outlook and credit contraction are key drivers for the performance of the 10Y government bond, with all previous "bond bull" markets since 2022 occurring during periods of economic downturn [3][14] - The liquidity perspective emphasizes that a loose liquidity environment is essential for expanding long-term bond yields, with previous "bond bull" markets showing that liquidity conditions often improve before the market starts to rise [3][18] - Institutional behavior has become increasingly influential in the bond market, with consistent duration increases by funds often preceding the start of a "bond bull" market, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][22][26] Group 3 - The report suggests that the period from June to August 2025 may present a window for a "bond bull" market, driven by fundamental and liquidity conditions, despite the current economic data showing no significant improvement [31][32] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by a lack of significant improvement, with liquidity being an endogenous variable of the fundamental environment, and monetary policy likely to maintain a loose stance [32] - The report advises monitoring fund duration and divergence indicators closely, as a consistent increase in fund duration could signal the potential start of a "bond bull" market [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is currently in a situation where the bullish trend is intermittent, and the market will experience short - term oscillations. Although the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, market participants are well - aware of this, and fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. The key for the bond market to strengthen lies in whether short - term interest rates can break downward. In the short term, due to factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit, the short - bond market will not start immediately, and the bond market will mainly oscillate. Once the market confirms that negative disturbances are controllable and the loosening of the capital side can be sustained, the bullish market will resume [2][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review: Treasury Bond Futures Continue to Strengthen - From June 9th to June 15th, Treasury bond futures continued to strengthen. On Monday, the expectation of loose liquidity continued to ferment, and Treasury bond futures generally oscillated and rose, with limited impact from Sino - US trade negotiation news on the bond market. On Tuesday, the market news was relatively calm in the morning, and Treasury bond futures oscillated within a narrow range. In the afternoon, market risk appetite suddenly declined, causing Treasury bond futures to rise, with TL performing strongly, but then market sentiment eased, and Treasury bond futures gave back their gains. On Wednesday, the market did not think that the Sino - US trade negotiation results were beyond expectations. Coupled with news that the central bank was evaluating the demand for 6 - month reverse repurchases and that inter - bank deposits would decline, Treasury bonds performed strongly, with TL leading the rise. On Thursday, the market news was calm, the capital side marginally tightened, and short - and medium - term Treasury bond futures made small adjustments. On Friday, the Israel - Iran conflict had limited positive effects on the bond market, and Treasury bond futures oscillated within a narrow range. At the end of the session, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, and the May financial data was mediocre, causing the spot bond yield to decline slightly. As of the close on June 13th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.448 yuan, 106.150 yuan, 109.000 yuan, and 120.460 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.080 yuan, + 0.030 yuan, + 0.020 yuan, and + 0.390 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View: The Bond Bull Market is Intermittent, and the Market will Experience Short - Term Oscillations - This week, the liquidity expectation continued to loosen, there was still room for improvement in many economic indicators in May, and the Sino - US trade negotiations did not yield beyond - expected results. Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose, and the yield curve flattened slightly. Whether the bond market can strengthen depends on whether short - term interest rates can break downward. Looking ahead to next week, although the central bank released a positive signal through outright reverse repurchases, there are still disturbing factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit. Against the backdrop of relatively high valuations, the short - bond market will not start immediately, and the bond market will mainly oscillate. The fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market, but the market is well - aware of this, and fundamental news is unlikely to drive the bond market to strengthen further. Most economic data in May are expected to show weak resilience, and only some indicators may strengthen slightly with policy support. The bullish impact of fundamentals on the bond market is certain, but domestic fundamental fluctuations are low, and the market has already priced in the current economic situation. Currently, the yield curve is relatively flat. When fundamentals cannot drive long - term bonds to break through, the subsequent room for long - term bonds to strengthen mainly depends on short - term bonds. Short - term bonds have been generally weak this year. Even though the capital side has gradually loosened since April and the certificate of deposit interest rate has generally declined, the performance of short - term Treasury bonds has still been weak. The main problem with short - term bonds is their relatively high valuation. After several months of valuation adjustment, the valuation is still slightly on the high side, as there is still a slight negative carry problem. When the valuation is slightly high, for short - term bonds to strengthen, it is necessary to confirm that the future capital side can continue to loosen. Although the central bank has released a positive signal through policies such as outright reverse repurchases, there are still disturbing factors such as tax periods and large amounts of maturing certificates of deposit. The market will continuously confirm the real impact of negative factors. Only after confirming that negative disturbances are controllable and the loose monetary policy attitude can be sustained will the short - bond market start. Overall, the market will mainly oscillate next week, and the rhythm of this bond bull market may be "intermittent" [15][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, a total of 51 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 941.126 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 292.648 billion yuan, changing by + 326.851 billion yuan and + 17.627 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. A total of 22 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.786 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 150.798 billion yuan, changing by - 18.09 billion yuan and - 93.513 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. A total of 668 certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1041.37 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 162.26 billion yuan, changing by + 455.88 billion yuan and - 81.2 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [23] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of the close on June 13th, the yields to maturity of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.41%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, changing by - 0.80bp, - 0.10bp, - 1.81bp, and - 3.35bp respectively compared to the close of last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y yield spread of Treasury bonds narrowed by 1.65bp to 23.01bp, the 10Y - 5Y yield spread narrowed by 1.71bp to 13.08bp, and the 30Y - 10Y yield spread narrowed by 1.54bp to 20.54bp. The yields to maturity of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.51%, 1.60%, and 1.71% respectively, changing by - 0.93bp, - 0.86bp, and 0.47bp respectively compared to last weekend [29] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures continued to strengthen. As of the close on June 13th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.448 yuan, 106.150 yuan, 109.000 yuan, and 120.460 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.080 yuan, + 0.030 yuan, + 0.020 yuan, and + 0.390 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 30,973, 51,133, 57,728, and 64,341 lots respectively, changing by - 8,537, - 7,149, - 1,632, and - 6,869 lots respectively compared to the previous weekend. The open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures this week were 124,001, 173,011, 212,977, and 125,019 lots respectively, changing by + 2,885, + 6,294, + 16,960, and + 9,923 lots respectively compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for positive arbitrage was not obvious. At the beginning of the month, the capital side further loosened, and the basis of futures generally oscillated within a narrow range. The IRR of the CTD bonds of the main contracts of each variety was around 1.8%. Currently, the certificate of deposit interest rate is slightly higher than 1.6%, so the opportunity for positive arbitrage strategies is relatively limited. In the short term, there are relatively few IRR strategies [44] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of the close on June 13th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were - 0.112 yuan, - 0.250 yuan, - 0.195 yuan, and - 0.860 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.000 yuan, + 0.015 yuan, - 0.035 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively compared to the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 858.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations. Since 930.9 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations matured, there was a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan. On June 13th, the central bank announced that to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, on June 16th, it would conduct a 400 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days) through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. As of the close on June 13th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.58%, 1.50%, 1.41%, and 1.51% respectively, changing by + 3.85bp, - 1.06bp, + 0.00bp, and + 0.80bp respectively compared to the close of last weekend. This week, the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.95 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than last week (7.50 trillion yuan), and the overnight proportion was 89.39%, higher than the previous week's level (87.48%) [53][56][58] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of the close on June 13th, the US dollar index fell 1.07% to 98.1450 compared to the close of last weekend; the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.41%, down 10BP compared to the previous weekend; the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 276.5BP. The year - on - year CPI in the US in May was 2.4%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.8%, both lower than expected, indicating moderate inflation pressure. Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September rose to 57%. The yield of US Treasury bonds declined, the US dollar weakened, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year remained at 2 times, with the focus on the first interest - rate cut in September [63][64] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. As of the close on June 13th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the Metal Index, and the Energy and Chemical Index were 3,507.97, 6,021.88, and 1,652.27 points respectively, changing by + 76.77, - 49.18, and + 68.99 points respectively compared to the previous weekend. This week, agricultural product prices all declined. As of the close on June 13th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.26, 4.33, and 7.78 yuan per kilogram respectively, changing by - 0.20, - 0.02, and - 0.01 yuan per kilogram respectively compared to the previous weekend [67] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips, moderately pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of Treasury bond futures, and moderately pay attention to the strategy of steepening the yield curve [2][18][19]

5月中旬以来，多空因素交织，债市呈窄幅震荡走势，特朗普关税政策和国内稳增长政策为两条交易主 线，经济基本面和货币政策限制了利率的上下空间。基本面方面，中美关税争端缓和后，"抢出口"支撑 二季度经济预期上修，短期对利率形成向上的驱动，但在经济结构转型的大背景下，内生动能仍偏弱， 物价中枢偏低印证总需求仍待提振，叠加关税政策存在反复的风险，约束利率的上行空间。货币政策方 面，央行加大净投放力度，缓解了市场对流动性的担忧，资金利率下行并维持均衡偏宽松格局，但央行 降准降息落地后货币政策进入观察期，居民存款搬家也给银行负债端带来一定压力，同业存单利率面临 上行风险。 上周央行"预告"大规模买断式逆回购操作，释放呵护资金面的信号，叠加大行持续购买短债，市场预计 这是央行为重启国债买卖操作做准备，提振债市做多情绪。6月5日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系 流动性合理充裕，6月6日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操 作，期限为3个月（91天）。以往是每月月中或月末操作，月末发布公开市场买断式逆回购业务公告。 同时，央行在官网开设了各项工具操作情况栏目，更新了5月各项工具流动性投放情况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "double reduction" in interest rates has led to a stable performance in the bond market, with discussions focusing on whether there is still room for further rate cuts in the second quarter [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 12, the interbank bond market saw an overall rise in yields, with the 3-month government bond yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.41%, the 2-year yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.44%, and the 10-year yield jumping by 5 basis points to 1.69% [2]. - Following the "double reduction," long-term bond yields have shown weak performance, indicating challenges in the downward pricing logic for long-term bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - There is a prevailing optimistic sentiment among institutions regarding the bond market, with expectations that if short-term rates can maintain low volatility, a "bull market" in bonds may continue, potentially pushing the 10-year government bond yield down to a range of 1.5% to 1.6% [4][5]. - The supply-demand relationship in the bond market is expected to improve in the second quarter, as the net increase in interest rate bonds will decrease, alleviating supply pressure [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The easing of monetary policy through rate cuts and potential resumption of government bond purchases is anticipated to support the bond market, especially in light of economic pressures from trade disputes [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment necessitates a focus on left-side opportunities, where investors can identify value during market volatility [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced significant volatility on the 25th, characterized by a "roller coaster" trading pattern, indicating a divergence in future expectations among market participants [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the 25th, all maturities of government bond futures opened significantly higher, peaked, then fell to a new low before recovering to near the opening price by midday [2][4]. - The trading volume of major contracts surged, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.69% to a volume of 99,500 contracts, the 10-year contract up by 0.25% to 156,000 contracts, and the 5-year contract increasing by 0.16% to 125,000 contracts [4]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a new high of 1.779% during the day but later retraced all gains, reflecting market instability [4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The significant increase in trading volume indicates a stark division in expectations regarding future interest rates and macroeconomic conditions, with both bullish and bearish positions being taken [4][6]. - The DR007 (7-day repo rate) rose to 2.21%, while the 10-year government bond yield hovered around 1.76%, indicating a notable inversion that complicates leveraged strategies for bond bulls [6]. - A report from CITIC Securities suggests that if the 10-year yield exceeds the resistance level of 1.65%, it could trigger increased selling pressure as many funds may enter a loss position [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Nearly 40% of fixed-income sell-side analysts have shifted their outlook to bearish, citing that current economic conditions do not support further monetary easing by the central bank [7]. - Analysts believe that the prolonged tightness in funding conditions may lead to a reassessment of the bond market's attractiveness, especially as stock markets show potential for higher returns [9][10]. - Despite the current tightening, some analysts maintain that long-term monetary easing remains a likely scenario, suggesting that the pressure on the bond market may be limited in the near term [10].