近日，中国上市公司百强论坛、华东理工大学民营经济研究院和华顿经济研究院在上海联合发 布"华顿版2025年世界500强企业排行榜"。该榜单以企业利润额作为排序依据，区别于《财富》杂志以 营业收入为基准的排名方式，旨在为观察全球经济格局提供另一重要视角。 榜单显示，全球500强企业利润总额约4.02万亿美元，较上年增长约5%；利润中位数由44.70亿美元 提升至45.78亿美元，增长2.4%。上榜门槛（最低利润额）从21.67亿美元增长至23.14亿美元，同比增长 6.8%。所有上榜企业的营业收入总额约为33.41万亿美元，同比增长约4%。 整体来看，2025年世界500强榜单呈现出"美国主导、中国紧随、欧日分流、新兴势力崛起"的核心 格局。行业分布集中于科技、金融、能源三大板块，传统行业面临转型调整压力，反映出全球产业链重 构、能源转型与数字经济竞争的趋势。此外，头部企业集中效应显著——前100强贡献了57%的利润， 前10强利润占比达20%，呈现出"头部虹吸、尾部承压"的结构性特征。 从区域格局看，美国共有191家企业上榜，数量居首，较去年增加9家。其上榜企业年创造利润总额 约1.77万亿美元，占500强利润 ...

（原标题："不出海，就出局"：浦东高端制造的全球化生存逻辑丨出海观察） 21世纪经济报道记者邓浩 上海报道 当全球产业链深度重构成为新常态，"出海"已从企业的发展选项变为生存的必答题。地缘政治波动、跨 国合规挑战、海外配套资源匮乏，成为中国制造走向世界必须跨越的关隘。 不出海，就出局 全球贸易形势的变化，一方面，供应链安全成为决策的重要考量；另一方面，海外市场相对的高毛利， 共同推动有技术和产品优势的高端制造行业加速出海。 作为全球领先的空调压缩机研发与制造企业，上海海立电器有限公司（以下简称"海立电器"）成立于 1993年，总部位于上海市浦东金桥开发区，是全球领先的空调压缩机研发与制造企业，拥有国家级企业 技术中心、国家认可实验室、博士后工作站等高端创新载体。公司核心产品覆盖家用、轻商用、非家用 空调压缩机，服务全球165个国家和地区的知名客户。 该公司受益于加入WTO带来重大的机遇，空调行业上游八成的压缩机都是中国本土生产，海立电器外 向度在40%以上。 "全球贸易的区域化，包括类似印度本地化生产的要求，导致我们目前生产端有部分适应和调整。"海立 电器战略市场投资部总经理徐志海对21世纪经济报道记者表示。 ...

Export Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's exports are expected to grow by 5.0% (in USD), demonstrating strong resilience despite significant tariffs imposed by the US[2] - The decline in exports to the US is projected to narrow, with a drop of 18.9% in the first 11 months of 2025, impacting overall export growth by approximately 2.8 percentage points[11] - Exports to non-US markets contributed about 6.0 percentage points to overall export growth, offsetting the decline in US exports[11] Outlook for 2026 - For 2026, China's export growth is anticipated to slow to around 4%, still outperforming the global average of approximately 0.5%[14] - China's share of global exports is expected to rise to 15.5% in 2026, up from 15.0% in 2025 and 14.6% in 2024[22] - The export structure is shifting from low-end consumer goods to mid-to-high-end intermediate and capital goods due to global supply chain restructuring[2] Key Drivers of Export Resilience - Demand from emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America is expected to drive the demand for industrial and intermediate goods, supporting Chinese exports[2] - China's competitive advantage in key segments of the supply chain continues to attract imports of essential intermediate and capital goods from countries like ASEAN[2] - Expansion in global AI computing power investments is likely to boost exports of Chinese electrical equipment and data center products[2] Risks and Policy Recommendations - Potential risks include the escalation of the US-China tariff war and increasing trade barriers from other economies[5] - Policy recommendations suggest enhancing domestic reforms and technological upgrades to strengthen export competitiveness[4] - Expanding high-level international openness is advised to provide stable support for enterprises' export and globalization efforts[4]

回顾过去一年中美博弈情况，王文表示，中美博弈进入漫长的"持久战"和"耐力战"，同时中美博弈加速 了全球产业链和价值链的深刻重构。 中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 图为中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文 12月9日，由中国经营报社主办的"2025中国企业竞争力年会"在京拉开帷幕。中国人民大学重阳金融研 究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文在会上发布"'十五五'前瞻：大国博弈、全球产业链变迁与发展机 遇"的主题演讲。 王文指出，目前大国博弈正在深刻重塑全球格局。对于企业而言，短期策略应聚焦风险防御与灵活应 对，中长期战略则着眼于自主创新与全球融合。对于个人而言，王文建议应走出去融入全球价值网络关 键节点；提升个人技能，增强职场的竞争力；同时，注重投资多元化，降低单一市场波动可能带来的风 险。 全球产业链重构下的中国担当 值得注意的是，"十五五"规划建议中针对未来产业的布局和规划，将对全球经济格局产生深刻影响。对 此，王文表示：一是推动供应链多极化，中国的发展为世界提供了除传统西方中心之外的另一个关键技 术、产品和资本来源地；二是加速技术民主化与竞争，使更多国家能以更低成本获得先进技术（如新能 源），但 ...

2026 年度策略系列电话会 - 宏观：短期答案在长期 20251203 摘要 预计 2026 年中国经济基本面平稳，波动有限，政策刺激概率较低，风 险管理是重点，房地产特别是房价变化是关键宏观变量。 2026 年海外需求和资本开支预计共振上行，美联储降息空间是关键， 可能通过关税减免平衡通胀与降息。 建议增配与国内经济相关度低、与海外经济相关度高的资产，股票关注 科技成长、产业链重构（装备制造、出海企业、工业资源品）及全球经 济复苏相关板块（化工）。 中国经济面临结构性和周期性问题，房地产调整是直接原因，根本原因 是人口红利消失，需产业升级而非强刺激。 房地产市场可能迎来拐点，投资降幅收敛，但需关注施工强度超预期下 滑的风险，2026 年房地产投资增速或收敛至 7%左右。 企业资本开支意愿下降，资金流向金融市场，A 股流动性充裕，国家队 兜底抬升风险偏好，形成 A 股慢牛共识。 2026 年上半年继续看多 A 股，受益于流动性充裕、科技板块估值调整、 慢牛共识和春季躁动效应，关注科技成长、产业链重构和外需相关板块。 Q&A 对于 2026 年宏观经济的展望，您认为有哪些主要的内外部因素需要关注？ 从长期来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Dongfang Precision Engineering to sell its European core assets for €774 million (approximately ¥6.34 billion) has raised eyebrows in the capital market, suggesting a strategic move rather than a mere loss-cutting measure [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The timing of the transaction is notable, occurring amidst the backdrop of geopolitical tensions affecting foreign investments in Europe, particularly following the asset freeze of Anshi Semiconductor by the Dutch government [3][13]. - The three companies being sold, including Fosber Group, are not loss-making but are significant revenue generators, expected to contribute ¥3.211 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for 67.2% of Dongfang's total revenue [5][9]. - The asset's value has increased dramatically, from an initial investment of approximately €740 million to a sale price of €774 million, representing a more than tenfold increase in value over ten years [7]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The decision to sell is seen as a proactive risk management strategy in light of increasing scrutiny and regulatory challenges for foreign investments in Europe, with 81% of Chinese companies in Europe reporting heightened uncertainty in the business environment [17][19]. - The choice of buyer, Brookfield Asset Management, a Canadian firm managing over $1 trillion in assets, is viewed positively as it is less likely to disrupt existing operations, focusing instead on stable returns [21]. - The cash from the sale will be redirected towards domestic ventures in new production sectors, specifically in marine power equipment and humanoid robotics, which align with current policy trends [23][25]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Future Outlook - The market has responded favorably, with Dongfang's stock price increasing by 90.71% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the company's strategic pivot towards domestic opportunities [40]. - The company's net profit rose by 54.64% in the first three quarters, indicating that investors are optimistic about the potential of the new business directions despite the short-term revenue decline from selling its core assets [40][42]. - The overall strategy highlights the importance of adaptability in a changing global landscape, suggesting that proactive transformation may become a common approach among Chinese enterprises facing uncertainty [42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing wide fluctuations, but certain growth sectors are performing well. Despite short-term volatility, the long-term positive trend of the A-share market remains intact, with structural opportunities brewing after the current fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Growth Opportunities - The company continues to favor growth assets and will explore growth potential in high-quality enterprises along several main lines: the acceleration of Chinese companies going global amid global industrial chain restructuring, particularly in manufacturing, which is seizing new opportunities from re-industrialization in Europe and the U.S. and industrialization in emerging markets [1]. - In the semiconductor and other technology sectors, Chinese companies are expected to achieve technological catch-up and industrial upgrades in certain key areas [1]. Group 2: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - The rise of a new generation of consumers is reshaping consumption perceptions and behaviors, leading to the continuous emergence of new brands, product categories, and experiences [2]. - The company will focus on dimensions such as visibility of performance realization, sustainability of growth logic, and certainty of marginal catalytic factors in its investment choices [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Market Monitoring - As the attractiveness of growth assets increases, the company has intensified its layout in high-certainty growth sectors, adjusting positions in the electronics sector and optimizing the internal structure of power equipment while reducing holdings in the pharmaceutical sector [2]. - The company is closely monitoring changes in corporate fundamentals and dynamically assessing opportunity potential to prepare for potential cross-year and spring market trends [2].

Core Insights - The article discusses the complexities and challenges of global supply chain restructuring driven by geopolitical factors, highlighting issues such as high costs, labor shortages, technological decoupling, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Decoupling - Technological decoupling leads to fragmentation of global innovation and technology standards, increasing complexity in industry cooperation and hindering collaborative efforts [4][5]. - Geopolitical risks elevate uncertainty in global economic development, prompting companies to increase liquidity assets, which in turn reduces domestic R&D investments [5]. - Export controls from leading nations on technology-chasing countries may force innovation but also complicate compliance and increase operational costs for multinational companies [5] Group 2: Social and Environmental Costs - The restructuring of global supply chains faces challenges such as labor market imbalances and high costs associated with manufacturing return policies [6][7]. - Labor disputes and dissatisfaction in traditional outsourcing locations like Mexico hinder the stability of supply chains, while skill mismatches in returning economies slow down manufacturing restructuring [6]. - High costs of manufacturing return weaken the effectiveness of policy incentives, as seen in the U.S. semiconductor industry, where local supply chain foundations are lacking [6][7]. Group 3: Dollar System Erosion - The restructuring of global supply chains is accompanied by a significant shift in the financial order, with a notable trend towards "de-dollarization" [9][10]. - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting local currency settlements in trade, as evidenced by the rising use of the yuan in trade between China and Russia [9]. - The weakening of the dollar's internal credit mechanism accelerates the de-dollarization process, with countries like Brazil and Argentina seeking financial cooperation with China to mitigate dollar risks [10]. Group 4: New Regional Competition Dynamics - The emergence of new regional competition reflects a split in standards between the Global North and South, with contrasting approaches to technology and resources [12][13]. - The disparity in technological capabilities between countries, particularly in foundational research, complicates global supply chain integration and innovation [12]. - Resource nationalism is becoming a significant factor in global supply chain dynamics, as countries assert control over critical resources, leading to increased competition and price volatility [13].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals sector, represented by gold and silver, has shown strong performance in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, with silver prices reaching historical highs and a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [2][6] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has contributed to the bullish sentiment in the precious metals market, with silver leading the gains [6][7] - Structural supply shortages in the silver market are anticipated to continue, with a projected supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply-demand imbalance [6][7] Group 2: Industrial Metals Market Dynamics - The industrial metals sector, particularly copper, has experienced significant price resilience, with LME copper prices reaching historical highs due to supply constraints and macroeconomic optimism [3][4] - Analysts predict a potential super cycle for copper driven by supply disruptions from major mines and increasing demand from sectors such as AI and renewable energy [3][4][5] - The global refined copper supply is expected to face shortages starting in 2024, with projected shortfalls of 270,000 tons, 460,000 tons, and 580,000 tons from 2025 to 2027, respectively [4] Group 3: Aluminum Market Outlook - The aluminum market is also expected to enter a bullish phase, with supply constraints becoming more pronounced as domestic production reaches capacity limits [5] - The global average annual supply growth for electrolytic aluminum is projected at 1.4%, while demand growth is expected to be 1.8%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [5] Group 4: Long-term Trends in Gold Prices - The long-term bullish trend for gold prices remains intact, supported by ongoing monetary easing and central bank gold purchases, which are expected to provide a strong safety net for gold prices [7][8] - The urgency for physical gold demand is anticipated to increase due to significant liquidity in the market, potentially leading to unpredictable price movements [8]

Core Insights - The industrial conductive glass industry in China is experiencing a significant trend of domestic substitution, with imports declining sharply since 2017, while exports are showing a steady growth trajectory [1][8] - The industry is characterized by a layered competitive landscape, where companies with advanced coating technologies dominate high-end applications, while many firms in the mid-to-low end market face homogenization and price competition [9] Import and Export Trends - From 2017 to 2024, the import quantity of industrial conductive glass in China decreased from 6,761.91 tons to 717.3 tons, and the import value dropped from 1.55 billion to 431 million [1][8] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the import quantity was 396.31 tons, a year-on-year decline of 29.07%, and the import value was 254 million, down 23.38% [1][8] - Conversely, the export quantity rose from 16,900 tons in 2017 to 40,300 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.6%, although the export value fell from 474 million to 210 million [1][8] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the export quantity was 37,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.57%, and the export value was 200 million, up 42.67% [1][8] Industry Development and Trends - The industrial conductive glass industry has evolved significantly since the mid-20th century, transitioning from specialized materials to large-scale production driven by advancements in ITO film and magnetron sputtering technology [3][4] - The industry is witnessing a diversification of application scenarios, expanding from traditional LCD displays to emerging technologies like Micro LED and electronic paper, which demand new optical performance and structural designs [11][13] - The market for ITO target materials is projected to grow from 639 tons in 2019 to 1,209.83 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.62% [5] - The glass substrate market is also expanding, with its size increasing from 13.9 billion in 2017 to 35 billion in 2024, and expected to reach 36.8 billion by 2025 [6] Key Companies in the Industry - Major players in the industrial conductive glass sector include China Southern Glass Group, CSG Holding Co., Ltd., Wuhu Changxin Technology Co., Ltd., and others, each with distinct competitive advantages and market positions [9][10] - China Southern Glass Group is recognized for its comprehensive product offerings in energy-saving glass and photovoltaic products, with a strong focus on high-value-added products [10] - CSG Holding Co., Ltd. has developed a complete display industry chain, including flexible and ultra-thin glass, and has achieved significant revenue growth in its display materials segment [10]