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黄金,继续飙升,缺口回补后,提防空头突袭!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 02:46
Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]
黄金,突破大涨!多头要单边吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 01:02
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]
重磅突发!美国评级遭下调,黄金要暴涨吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 13:48
止损,永远是对的,错了也对! 死扛,永远是错的,对了也错! 横批:止损无条件! 如果没有交易原则,那么,一切技术等于零! 黄金今年是不断创历史的一年,元旦节后黄金多空都达到了极致,尤其是进入到4月份之后这种走势更是陷入癫狂;过去100单日涨跌100美元的稀有行情现 在成了家常便饭,日内V型反转,倒V走势成了常态! 黄金超级无敌大扫荡还会不断上演,主要是由当前基本面决定的!在关税大战,地缘局势,去美元化,美联储政策不确定,全球经济衰退等大背景下,黄金 暴涨、暴跌成为家常便饭,并且越来越多!未来相当长的一段时间里,黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡,然后寻求大区间突破!做多,做 空,都可以,只要有充足的理由都可以,带好损,不抗单,控制好仓位;只要不损,很容易大赚! 周末几个重大消息 1、美国评级遭下调,国际信用评级机构穆迪5月16日宣布,由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加,该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1,同 时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 2、特朗普继续逼迫美联储降息,当地时间周六(5月17日),美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发帖称:" ...
黄金,V型反转!单日暴涨120美元,无敌扫荡常态化!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 01:16
止损,永远是对的,错了也对! 死扛,永远是错的,对了也错! 横批:止损无条件! 如果没有交易原则,那么,一切技术等于零! 黄金昨天走势无敌,昨天2193附近亚盘先跌3120附近,跌幅达72美元;欧盘探底回升迎来大涨,美盘突破日内高点并站上3200大关后加速,日线以长下影光 头大阳线收盘3240一线! 未来相当长的一段时间里,黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡,然后寻求大区间突破!做多,做空,都可以,只要有充足的理由都可以,带 好损,不抗单,控制好仓位;只要不损,很容易大赚! 黄金,昨天日内探底暴涨完成多空转换,日内大涨120美元;黄金在60日均线获得支撑并大涨,这波下跌又要告一段落了。接下来回归看涨,关注上方3270- 65阻力突破情况;但突破前谨防大幅度回落后再涨;一旦向上突破,多头将直奔周一跳空缺口3323-27区域,然后逐步冲击3400大关! 黄金这种巨阳线一般不会回落太多,一旦回落又要折腾;所以,看涨的同时,也需要注意短期大涨用力过猛,再次上演深度调整继续扫荡的走势!今天行 情,大阳线理应顺势做多,但上方阻力强大,突破前随时有跳水风险,不适合追;顶着巨阳线做空,也不明智, ...
早盘直击 | 今日行情关注
风险提示:国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期;上市公司业绩增速回落超预期;全球经济衰退超预期。 从市场运行节奏看,沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑,正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企 稳反弹,目前已经回补了 4 月 7日的向下跳空缺口,上方正面临着今年一季度高点和去年四季度的成交 密集区的压力,预计继续反弹的阻力将有所增大,建议保持震荡市思维。 首先,中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展,市场风险偏好有所提升。新华社 5 月 11 日晚报道"中美经贸 高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性,达成重要共识,并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋 商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节,并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明"。周一下午三点, 新华社发布了《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,中美两国同时大幅下调之前加征的关税。中美经贸谈 判的效率和互相减免关税的幅度总体超出投资者预期,市场风险偏好有所上升。当然,4 月中旬以来市 场始终在交易贸易冲突的缓和,要看到市场已经计入一定改善预期。不悲不喜,谨慎应对仍是基本原 则。 其次,沪指高开高收,成交放大。周一,两市高开后一路向上反弹,收盘接近全天最高点。两市量 能在 1.3 万亿 ...
美关税举措加剧全球石油市场动荡
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-09 22:09
Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing economic instability and the increasing market share of electric vehicles as key factors [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Demand and Supply - The IEA projects global oil demand growth for 2025 to be 730,000 barrels per day, a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [1]. - In Q1 2025, global oil consumption is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, marking the largest increase since 2023 [1]. - Global oil supply in March increased by 590,000 barrels per day, reaching 103.6 million barrels per day, primarily driven by non-OPEC countries [1]. Group 2: Refining and Inventory - Global crude oil processing capacity is expected to reach 83.2 million barrels per day in 2025, with an increase of 340,000 barrels per day, down by 230,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [2]. - Global oil inventories rose by 21.9 million barrels in February, totaling 7.647 billion barrels, although they remain at the lower end of the past five years [2]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - Oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with a decline of approximately $10 per barrel from March to early April, reaching near four-year lows [2][3]. - The decision by some OPEC+ members to lift voluntary production cuts has heightened concerns about falling oil prices [3]. - The U.S. implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has raised fears of a global economic downturn, impacting market stability and oil prices [3].
不少衰退指标再度发出警告!这次还是噪音吗?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-08 08:45
以下是一些受到密切关注的指标关于全球衰退风险的解读: 硬数据vs软数据 所谓的软经济数据(如情绪指标)与硬数据(如就业数据)之间的脱节,使人难以解读衰退风险。 全球衰退风险重新回到了市场的担忧清单上,但经济数据和关键金融指标的解读并不像最初看起来那么 明确。 美国总统特朗普4月宣布的大部分对等关税90天暂停期缓解了投资者最坏的担忧,但对商业和消费者信 心的损害预计将造成影响。 苏黎世保险集团首席市场策略师Guy Miller表示:"即使就关税达成一些协议,衰退风险也显著上升。美 国经济衰退的风险是五五开,就是这么接近。" 硬数据,即最新的美国就业数据指向一个有韧性的经济,而美国第一季度经济萎缩和欧元区经济扩张都 被解释为企业在对等关税前提前布局。 同时,软数据,即商业和消费者信心指标有所恶化,一些人认为这预示着更弱的增长将很快显现。 美国消费者信心在4月暴跌至近五年低点。消费者支出是关键,因为它占美国经济活动的三分之二以 上。欧元区投资者信心指数在4月暴跌后有所回升,但仍处于负值区间。 MUFG高级经济学家Henry Cook表示:"我们假设欧元区的任何收缩都将是短暂且相对温和的。" 苏黎世的Miller表示 ...
日本经济团体联合会负责人就美国关税引发的后果发出警告
news flash· 2025-05-07 12:34
金十数据5月7日讯,日本经济团体联合会(Keidanren)会长德仓正一对日本国内企业信心的减弱表示 担忧,因为人们担心特朗普提高关税可能引发全球经济衰退。德仓正一表示,"各行业的许多人更担心 的是不确定性如何导致支出和投资下降,而不是美国关税的任何直接影响。"他还表示,关税对国内汽 车、钢铁和铝行业的企业造成了特别沉重的打击。虽然日本一直试图从特朗普政府那里获得让步,但美 国拒绝给予日本关税豁免,称对等关税中只有针对特定国家的部分是可以谈判的。德仓正一说,日本首 相石破茂领导的政府"必须努力尽快消除所有关税",他敦促日本政府在与美国的谈判中更加不屈不挠。 日本经济团体联合会负责人就美国关税引发的后果发出警告 ...
美财长为关税政策辩护,行业高管并不买账
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-06 22:24
Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, emphasized that the Trump administration's economic agenda, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, aims to strengthen the U.S. as a global capital destination [1] - Many corporate executives expressed concerns about the aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have led to companies pausing their investment plans [1] - Citigroup's CEO, Jane Fraser, noted that clients are preparing for difficult situations, with companies strengthening balance sheets and delaying business expenditures or investments [1] Group 2 - A Reuters poll indicated a high risk of global economic recession, with 92% of economists stating that the Trump administration's tariff policies have harmed business confidence [2] - The IMF's Managing Director, Georgieva, revised the global GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8%, attributing this to the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - Georgieva warned that the world is moving towards a period of increased shocks and volatility, with developed economies like the U.S. facing more inflation [2]
西南期货早间评论-20250506
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 08:41
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].