在全球贸易摩擦加剧的大背景下，野村警告，全球经济正在驶入未知水域，市场对政策风险的低 估或将成为下半年的一大隐患。 在周四举行的一场面向中国媒体的在线交流会上， 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席 主管Rob Subbaraman 表示， 全球经济正步入一个充满不确定性的"未知领域"。 他指出，从美 联储的政策路径到特朗普政府带来的经济政策变化，再到地缘政治风险升温，全球市场正面临自 金融危机以来少见的多重风险叠加。 Rob警告， 美国将在下半年面临 "通胀回升+增长放缓"的典型滞胀压力，美联储将非常谨慎，直 到12月才会降息，且降息幅度可能低于市场预期。 他特别提醒，目前美国企业因抢进口库存偏高， 关税尚未真正反映到消费者物价中，但随着Q3 企业补库，进口成本上升势必传导至通胀，预计四季度美国核心CPI将反弹至3.3%。 Rob表示： " 我们将在未来几周进入一个关键时刻 ，因为在接下来的几周里，我认为我们将开始看到更多证据表 明关税正在影响美国的经济数据。" 对于特朗普提出任命"影子美联储主席"的想法，Rob认为， 即将到来的关键人事变动可能为此提 供实际通道 ： 明年1月底，美联储理事Adrian ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura warns that the global economy is entering an uncertain phase, with underestimation of policy risks potentially becoming a significant concern in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Economic Outlook - The global economy is facing extreme uncertainty, particularly due to the new U.S. administration's policies and geopolitical risks [3][5]. - The U.S. is expected to experience typical stagflation pressures, with rising inflation and slowing growth, leading the Federal Reserve to be cautious and likely delaying interest rate cuts until December [1][3][5]. - Core CPI in the U.S. is projected to rebound to 3.3% in the fourth quarter due to rising import costs and tariffs impacting consumer prices [1][3][18]. U.S. Trade Policy - Trump's use of tariffs is not solely aimed at reducing the trade deficit but is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical considerations [3][8]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from the EU if high tariffs are imposed is significant, and ongoing negotiations are crucial [9][3]. Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are at their highest in decades, with political influence potentially affecting monetary policy [2][23][27]. - The upcoming vacancies in the Federal Reserve Board may provide Trump with opportunities to influence the central bank's direction [1][23][27]. Inflation Factors - Current low inflation levels in the U.S. are expected to rise due to tariffs, labor shortages from immigration policies, and potential fiscal policy expansions ahead of midterm elections [18][20][21]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is acknowledged, but its deflationary effects are still in early stages and may not significantly counteract inflationary pressures in the short term [29]. Market Sentiment - The market appears overly optimistic regarding the potential outcomes of the trade war, with expectations that tariffs will not significantly impact economic data [20][21]. - There is a notable shift in investment patterns, with a diversification away from U.S. assets towards European markets, driven by geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [31][32].

Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices has been unexpectedly muted, with significant effects yet to materialize [1][2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the core PCE inflation will rise to 3.3% by the end of 2025, with tariffs contributing approximately 1% to this increase [1][7] Delayed Transmission of Tariff Costs - The effective tariff rate is expected to increase by about 9 percentage points due to announced tariffs, with a total expected increase of around 14 percentage points [2] - As of May, the effective tariff rate had only risen by 7.2 percentage points, indicating a lag in the expected impact [2] - Three main factors contribute to this delay: the timing of tariff implementation, the ability for importers to defer tariff payments, and companies stockpiling goods ahead of tariff increases [2][5] Foreign Exporters Bearing Costs - Foreign exporters are absorbing approximately 20% of the tariff costs by lowering export prices, a significant increase from nearly zero during the 2018-2019 trade conflict [3][4] Consumer Price Transmission - The transmission of tariff costs to consumers is slow, with only 0.3% of the expected price increase realized in the first month after tariff implementation [5] - The transmission rate increases over time, reaching 40% by the third month, compared to a faster transmission during the previous trade conflict [5][6] Inflation Forecasts - Despite the delayed transmission of tariff costs, Goldman Sachs maintains its inflation forecast, estimating that announced tariffs have raised core PCE prices by about 6 basis points since January [7] - The firm anticipates that all tariff impacts will push core PCE up by approximately 1 percentage point by December, leading to an annual inflation rate of 3.3% [7]

Group 1: Price Trends and Inflation - The implementation of new tariffs by the Trump administration is leading to noticeable price increases in various retail categories, particularly in footwear, apparel, and bags, with a trend of "tagged inflation" emerging [1][2] - DataWeave's analysis shows that footwear prices have risen by approximately 4%, with specific increases of 4.2% at Macy's, 3.1% at Nordstrom, and 2% at Dillard's [1] - Apparel prices have seen more moderate increases, with Dillard's at 2%, Macy's at 1.9%, and Nordstrom at 1.8% [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The price increase is closely linked to the type of product and supply chain structure, with footwear heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing, making it sensitive to tariff changes [2] - A survey by the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) indicates that over half of the respondents expect retail prices to rise by 6% to 10% due to increased tariffs [2] - The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) has warned that new tariffs on back-to-school items could lead to price increases of 10% to 30% [2] Group 3: Trade Agreements and Future Implications - The recent trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and up to 40% on "transshipped" products, poses a significant challenge for brands like Nike, Lululemon, and H&M that rely on Vietnamese manufacturing [3] - Vietnam is projected to surpass China as the largest supplier of footwear to the U.S. by 2025, with 274 million pairs of shoes imported in 2024, accounting for over half of the total sneaker imports [3] - The overall import costs are expected to rise significantly due to the combination of existing tariffs and the new agreement [3] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Response - Retailers are beginning to pass on the price increases to consumers, with the National Retail Federation noting that the impact of tariffs is becoming evident on retail shelves [4] - The former CEO of Walmart highlighted that consumer choices will ultimately determine whether inflation trends will solidify, as consumers may opt for non-tariffed alternatives if prices rise [4] - Investment analysts are observing that core import prices have already increased, indicating that inflationary pressures are beginning to transmit through the supply chain [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari emphasizes the need for more time to assess the impact of the trade war, suggesting that its effects may be delayed or less severe than anticipated [1] Group 1 - Focus should be on actual inflation and economic data rather than commitments to a loose policy path [1] - The potential delay in the effects of tariffs is a critical consideration for economic policy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipation of the U.S. May core PCE price index annual rate release, which is expected to show a slight increase, indicating the initial effects of tariffs [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether this data will impact interest rate cut expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not indicate any imminent interest rate cuts during his testimony, emphasizing a cautious approach to policy adjustments despite pressure from President Trump and other officials [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell reiterated that the Fed does not need to rush into policy changes, citing the strength of the economy as a reason to wait for clearer insights into the impact of tariffs before making decisions [1][2]. - The Fed maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting, reflecting a cautious stance amid economic uncertainties [1][3]. - Market expectations have shifted slightly, with traders increasing bets on at least two rate cuts by the end of the year following Powell's comments [2][3]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell acknowledged that tariffs could lead to upward pressure on inflation and weaken economic growth, although the exact impact remains uncertain [1][2]. - He indicated that the effects of tariffs on inflation could be either temporary or more persistent, depending on various factors [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making will be influenced by how quickly tariff effects are transmitted to prices and whether long-term inflation expectations remain anchored [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell described the overall economy and labor market as solid, with inflation having significantly decreased from mid-2022 highs but still slightly above the Fed's 2% target [6]. - He emphasized the need for vigilance against potential large-scale and sustained inflation shocks, indicating that the Fed has not fully restored price stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The May PPI data in the U.S. showed a mild impact from costs of goods and services, with core PPI figures falling short of expectations, indicating potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to high tariffs and corporate profit margin concerns [1] Group 1: PPI Data Insights - The May PPI data revealed an expansion in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Year-to-date profit margins have shown fluctuations, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts are closely monitoring the PPI report as certain components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE data [1] - Areas of weakness in May included declines in airfare prices, investment management fees, and moderate healthcare costs [1] - The PCE report is expected to be released later this month, which will provide further insights into inflation trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar is linked to the absence of tariff effects and the recent lower-than-expected inflation data, which has prompted President Trump to call for interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The US dollar continues to be under pressure following the release of disappointing inflation data [1] - President Trump has criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for being "too late" in implementing interest rate cuts [1] - Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and commodity research at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the dollar's decline may reflect a lack of tariff effects in the data, supporting Trump's viewpoint [1]