Group 1: Gold Market - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that inflation is moving towards the 2% target, and the most likely scenario is two rate cuts by the Fed this year [1] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that it is still too early to determine whether the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary or persistent, with expectations for data to gradually emerge between June and September [1] - JPMorgan CEO Dimon mentioned that if inflation concerns rise, the Fed may refrain from cutting rates, with a potential 40%-50% chance of rate hikes if inflation increases [1] - There is increasing divergence in views on rate cuts within the Fed, with a low probability of a cut in July, making the upcoming meeting at the end of the month significant for future action plans [1] - Technically, gold has been fluctuating downwards, facing resistance at $3,330 and support at $3,310 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Trump's tariff policy has escalated, announcing a 50% tariff on copper imports and goods from Brazil starting August 1 [3] - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 recorded 227,000, down from the previous 232,000, indicating a resilient labor market [3] - OPEC's "World Oil Outlook 2050" predicts global oil demand will increase by 18.2 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2050, reaching 122.9 million barrels per day [3] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research believes that while long-term oil demand is expected to rise, short-term challenges from economic downturns and a rebound in the dollar may hinder oil price increases [3] - Technically, oil faced resistance at $68.90 and has shown a fluctuating upward trend over the past two weeks, with key resistance levels at $67.80 and $69 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices surged significantly on July 8, reaching a high of $5.80, with a likelihood of further increases [6] - Short-term support for copper is at $5.45, while resistance levels are at $5.65 and $5.80 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has been fluctuating between 39,300 and 40,000 this week, with attention on potential breakouts; a rise above 40,000 could target 40,400, while a drop below 39,300 could lead to 38,900 [7]

Group 1 - OPEC+ surprised analysts by increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1] - Eight OPEC+ members are expected to significantly increase production in September, with a total of 2.2 million barrels per day of previously reduced output returning to the market [1] - Despite the anticipated increase, analysts believe that the actual production increase may not be as substantial due to some producers operating below their quotas to compensate for previous overproduction [1] Group 2 - The current oil market appears tight in the short term, with no immediate concerns about oversupply, although a potential oversupply in the fall could pressure prices downward [1][4] - Saudi Arabia raised official crude prices for August shipments to Asia and Europe, betting on strong summer demand to absorb additional supply [1] - Brent crude prices are currently around $60 per barrel, which may encourage purchases from Asia, particularly from China [1] Group 3 - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a significant drop in imports expected in June due to high prices [2] - India's largest oil refiner views current Brent crude prices around $60 per barrel as a comfortable level, indicating potential for further price declines [2] - Analysts suggest that overall demand in Asia may be disappointing later in the summer due to the previous month's price spikes [2] Group 4 - ING analysts noted that the market remains tight in the short term, with expectations of oversupply materializing later in the year, which could lead to sustained downward pressure on prices [3] - The middle distillate market is tightening more than the crude oil market, with rising refining margins for natural gas [3] - U.S. middle distillate inventories are at their lowest levels in over two decades, indicating a potential supply constraint [3] Group 5 - Saxo Bank's report indicates that Saudi Aramco's price increases suggest a tight physical market capable of absorbing additional supply [4] - Short-term risks for oil prices appear controlled, with previous overproduction compensations offsetting new supply [4] - Analysts expect that unless there is a significant escalation in Middle Eastern tensions, oil prices are unlikely to exceed $70 per barrel for an extended period [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report indicates a more relaxed fundamental outlook for the oil market, with adjustments in supply and demand forecasts from IEA, EIA, and OPEC for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3] Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10,488.00, 10,434.42, and 10,410.62 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 of +182.72, +154.73, and +175.68 million barrels per day [2][32] - For 2026, the supply predictions are 10,603.04, 10,513.81, and 10,505.26 million barrels per day, reflecting increases from 2025 of +115.04, +79.39, and +94.64 million barrels per day [2][32] - The average change in global oil supply for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be +70.56 million barrels per day, a significant increase from previous predictions [2][27] Demand Overview - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10,376.27, 10,352.80, and 10,513.49 million barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with year-on-year increases of +72.41, +78.67, and +129.49 million barrels per day [2][4] - For 2026, the demand forecasts are 10,450.19, 10,458.75, and 10,641.54 million barrels per day, indicating increases from 2025 of +73.92, +105.95, and +128.05 million barrels per day [2][4] Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals crude prices are $69.11, $67.45, $62.59, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +6.93%, +7.89%, +3.54%, and 0.00% [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent crude at -8.98%, WTI at -7.77%, Russian ESPO at -13.01%, and Urals at -4.41% [9][10] Inventory Insights - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +111.73, +81.62, and -102.87 million barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +30.16 million barrels per day [3][27] - For 2026, the inventory changes are forecasted at +152.85, +55.06, and -136.28 million barrels per day, averaging +23.88 million barrels per day [1][27] Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices showed a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties such as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of Trump's policies. Some in the market believe that the current oil price has factored in a risk premium of about $10, and potential supply disruptions may push the oil price to break through further. - From a macro and fundamental perspective, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but anticipates two rate cuts this year, potentially stimulating the economy and boosting crude oil demand. Also, the largest decline in US crude oil inventories in a year last week supported the strong - side oscillation of oil prices. - In the short - term, the high - level oscillation trend is likely to continue, but market risks have increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the long side. Resistance levels are $75 - 76 for WTI, $78 - 79 for Brent, and 580 - 590 yuan for SC [51]. Methanol - Amid geopolitical conflicts, there is a strong sentiment for long - side allocation in the market. For ports, the import forecast has been revised down. If Iranian supply is interrupted, it may lead to the shutdown of supporting MTO plants or profit squeezing, potentially reducing production and alleviating the supply - demand contradiction at ports. It is necessary to monitor the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics. - In the inland area, prices have slightly weakened, with the increase driven by the futures market. On the supply side, plant restarts have led to an increase in production, while demand is in the off - season, limiting the room for valuation expansion. A short - term positive spread strategy is recommended [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - For caustic soda, recent开工 has declined, and the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has dropped to 83%. Although some production may resume as costs decline, the driving force for caustic soda is limited. The main alumina plants in Shandong have continuously lowered their purchase prices, weakening the drive for the spot market. Non - aluminum demand is weak, and inventory is not an effective driving factor. The current caustic soda spot price is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [57][58]. - For PVC, the short - term contradiction has not intensified further, and the price has strengthened due to the sharp increase in energy prices under geopolitical conflicts and the macro - sentiment. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent as the domestic real - estate sector is in a downward trend, dragging down terminal demand. With fewer maintenance plans in June and new plant startups in June - July, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a mid - term short - selling strategy [58]. Styrene - Market fluctuations mainly follow changes in crude oil and styrene futures. With downstream public tenders and low styrene inventory in commercial tanks, and the strong - side movement of oil prices, pure benzene's price only slightly followed due to its own supply - demand structure. Styrene port inventory has been declining, and spot supply is limited. Geopolitical factors have driven up crude oil prices, strengthening the near - term basis. Although integrated styrene plants have restarted, most of the supply is for contract fulfillment, resulting in limited market - flowing goods. - It is necessary to pay attention to the possible weakening of styrene's supply - demand balance due to high profits. Styrene's valuation is likely to be restored through price declines considering pure benzene's inventory and import pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - side opportunities from the resonance of raw material prices in the medium - term [65]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - The sharp increase in oil prices has suppressed costs. Propylene and methanol have strengthened, while coal prices have shown a weak oscillation, compressing profits to a record low. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, inventory is differentiated (PP inventory accumulates, while PE inventory decreases). - Dynamically, there are many short - term PP maintenance plans, but new production capacity has been put into operation smoothly, leading to an increase in output. PE's start - up rate has increased, and more maintenance in mid - to late June may alleviate inventory accumulation. Demand is affected by the off - season and US tariffs, and the end of national subsidies at the beginning of the month has affected the demand for PP small household appliances. For PE, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for PP, a mid - term short - side strategy can be considered, while paying attention to the start - up situation of marginal production capacity (MTO, PDH) [68]. Urea - The core drivers are the concentration of exports and the sentiment boost caused by international geopolitical events, which are demand - side dominated. The Israel - Iran conflict has pushed up international prices, and the expected increase in exports has stimulated domestic buying sentiment, driving both futures and spot prices to rebound. - Secondary drivers include the high daily production on the supply side with potential support from local maintenance and the short - term positive impact of inventory reduction. Although industrial demand is weak and the agricultural sector is cautious, it has not reversed the upward trend. A cautiously bullish approach can be maintained in the short - term, and long positions can be established at low levels based on the export and inventory reduction logic. However, strict risk control is required as the basis has narrowed after the rapid price increase, and the futures market has shown over - buying signals [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Middle - East geopolitical news has continued to affect oil prices, and the significant reduction of 1.1 billion barrels in EIA crude oil inventories has supported oil prices, which are expected to remain strong in the short - term. Although PX supply has increased recently and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, the market is worried about raw material supply due to the escalation of Middle - East geopolitics, and the short - term supply - demand of PX is relatively tight. PX09 is expected to be strong in the short - term; it is recommended to wait and see on the 9 - 1 month spread of PX; and reduce positions at low levels for the strategy of narrowing the PX - SC spread. - **PTA**: PTA supply has increased significantly recently, and downstream factories have signaled production cuts, so the supply - demand is gradually weakening. However, due to the tight spot circulation and the rigid demand replenishment of some polyester factories, the short - term basis of PTA is still strong, but there is an expectation of decline. Affected by the strong oil prices and the tight supply - demand of PX, PTA is expected to be supported strongly in the short - term. TA is expected to be strong in the short - term, pay attention to the pressure above 5000 yuan; look for reverse - spread opportunities above 200 for TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - demand structure of MEG in June is still good. Although the supply of Saudi goods is expected to increase, the arrival of North American goods is limited, so both implicit and explicit inventories are expected to decrease. However, short - term demand is weak, and with the restart of MEG plants such as those in Saudi - China, Hengli, and Henan Coal Industry, the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose. Affected by the rising oil prices due to the Middle - East situation and the shutdown of some Iranian plants, MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 4600 yuan for EG09 in the short - term. - **Short - fiber**: The current supply - demand of short - fiber is generally weak. Due to the strong backwardation structure of PTA, the spot processing fee of short - fiber has been significantly compressed. Short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July. With low inventory in short - fiber factories and strong raw materials, the absolute price of short - fiber is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the processing fee is expected to be restored. The strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; focus on expanding the low - level PF processing fee on the futures market and pay attention to the implementation of production cuts later. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. According to CCF, since the end of May, Sanfangxiang has shut down 1 million tons of polyester bottle - chip production capacity, and other major bottle - chip manufacturers also plan to cut production at the end of June and early July. The supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; the main - contract processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at the lower end of the range [79]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil and Related Products - **Price and Spread Changes**: On June 20, compared with June 18, Brent rose by $2.15 to $78.85, a 2.80% increase; WTI rose by $0.22 to $75.36, a 0.29% increase; SC rose by 15.50 yuan to 574.50 yuan, a 2.77% increase. Various spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also showed significant changes [51]. - **Month - to - Month Structure**: There are data on the month - to - month structures of USDL, Gasoil, WTI, Dubai, RBOB, etc., showing the price differences between different contract months [1][6][8]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On June 20, compared with June 18, MA2601, MA2509, and related spreads such as MA91 and the regional spreads of methanol all showed price and spread changes. For example, MA91 spread increased by 11 to 28, a 64.71% increase [54]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10% to 36.735%, methanol port inventory decreased by 10.09% to 58.6 million tons, and methanol social inventory decreased by 7.52% to 95.4%. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises also changed, with the upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate increasing by 3.06% to 77.44% [54]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of products such as Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, and various PVC futures contracts changed. For example, SH2509 decreased by 10 to 2288, a 0.4% decrease [57]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Caustic soda and PVC开工 rates, overseas quotations, export profits, and inventory data all showed changes. For example, the caustic soda industry开工 rate decreased by 2.6% to 85.7, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% to 35.5 million tons [57][58]. Styrene - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as styrene in the spot and futures markets changed. For example, styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 to 8100, a 1.1% increase [62][63]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of domestic pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products also showed changes. For example, styrene's start - up rate increased by 2.1% to 73.8, and styrene port inventory decreased by 11.5% to 9.3 million tons [65]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 and related spreads, as well as spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE changed. For example, L2601 rose by 37 to 7399, a 0.50% increase [68]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rate**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories, as well as the start - up rates of upstream and downstream enterprises, changed. For example, PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83% to 49.9 million tons, and PP装置开工率 increased by 2.1% to 78.6 [68]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of urea futures contracts, spot prices in different regions, and various spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 11 to 1725, a 0.63% decrease [72]. - **Supply and Demand Indicators**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and production enterprise order days changed. For example, domestic urea daily production decreased by 0.54% to 20.13 million tons, and domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49% to 113.60 million tons [76]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: On June 19 compared with June 18, prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and downstream products such as POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester industry chain, as well as various spreads and processing fees changed. For example, POY150/48 price decreased by 10 to 7130, a 0.1% decrease [79]. - **Start - up Rate and Inventory**: The start - up rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as MEG inventory and arrival expectations, changed. For example, PTA开工率 increased by 2.9% to 82.6, and MEG port inventory decreased by 2.8% to 61.6 million tons [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season in the United States supports the demand for crude oil, leading to a decline in crude oil inventories [1]. - The ruling of the US International Trade Court on May 29 improved the market's expectations for the global economy and crude oil demand, causing crude oil prices to rebound. However, on May 30, the US Federal Court's decision to consider the government's appeal and keep the reciprocal tariffs in effect led to a drop in oil prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US policy fluctuations on crude oil [1]. 3. Data Summary Inventory Data - As of last week, US commercial crude oil inventories were 440.363 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil inventories were 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (0.32%); gasoline inventories were 223.081 million barrels, a decrease of 2.441 million barrels (-1.08%); distillate inventories were 103.408 million barrels, a decrease of 724,000 barrels (-0.70%); total oil product inventories were 1.222411 billion barrels, a decrease of 665,000 barrels (-0.05%); strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 401.313 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (0.20%) [1][2]. Production and Trade Data - The US refinery utilization rate was 90.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points (-0.55%) from the previous week; crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day (0.07%); crude oil imports were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day (4.30%); crude oil exports were 4.301 million barrels per day, an increase of 794,000 barrels per day (22.64%) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report is bearish. Crude oil and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased across the board, crude oil exports continued to weaken, and terminal demand was weak, reducing the possibility of a reversal in crude oil demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Data - As of May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.158 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 843,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 579,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.582 million barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 211,000 barrels per day to 19.6245 million barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 192,500 barrels per day to 8.81325 million barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 122,750 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 68,500 barrels per day to 1.6865 million barrels per day [3]. 3.2 Report Comment - The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to continued low crude oil exports and increased net imports. The four - week smoothed export volume hit a new low, indicating weakening global crude oil demand [4]. - The weekly refinery utilization rate increased for the fifth consecutive week by 0.5% to 90.7%, suggesting that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be coming to an end [4]. - U.S. crude oil production has declined recently, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is $65 per barrel of WTI [4]. - The strong gasoline demand momentum that exceeded the seasonal norm suddenly stopped, leading to an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories. With the approaching Memorial Day, the poor performance of gasoline demand is worrying. Distillate demand hit a 13 - month low, corresponding to the weakening manufacturing PMI [6]. 3.3 Market Impact - The EIA report was bearish. Inventory increases, weakening exports, and weak terminal demand all pointed to a weak oil market. The U.S. EIA report on the night before last contributed to the decline in oil prices, resulting in a negative daily line [8]. - Oil prices opened higher yesterday due to news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the lack of a realistic basis for such an attack led to a subsequent decline in oil prices [8].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EIA Weekly Data Report - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 - **Report Author**: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment has been suspended due to a recent decline in international oil prices, providing relief for drivers during the holiday period [1][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced consecutive declines, with New York and Brent crude futures dropping by 1.79% and 1.93% on April 28, and further declines of 3.08% and 2.75% on April 29 [1][3]. - The current average price of crude oil is $64.82 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.65%, not reaching the minimum adjustment threshold [1]. - Factors contributing to the decline in oil prices include the U.S.-initiated tariff war, expectations of reduced oil demand, increasing U.S. oil inventories, and OPEC's proposal to accelerate production increases in June [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - Since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have undergone "three increases, four decreases, and one suspension," resulting in a cumulative decrease of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [5]. - On April 17, there was a significant price drop, with 92-octane gasoline decreasing by 0.38 yuan per liter, 95-octane by 0.41 yuan, and 0 diesel by 0.4 yuan [5]. - Current prices in Zhejiang Province are 7.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.52 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 6.72 yuan for 0 diesel [5].