姓名：涂伟华 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合 计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨；下游 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨，周环比增 2.07 万吨。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速 度偏缓，焦炭基本面改善幅度有限，相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强 预期。综上，焦炭自身基本面支撑仍较为乏力，不过进入新一年度后，经 济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐 显，带动焦炭期货低位反弹。 焦煤：截至 1 月 9 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.4 万 吨，周环比增 4.4 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 6.9 万吨。需求方面，截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增 格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预 期、下游冬储补库预 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强震荡 | 供应扰动支撑，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强震荡 | 原料支撑显现，焦炭偏强运行 | 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货低位反弹。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 偏多因素扰动，煤焦继续反弹 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 08 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1765 元/吨，日内录得 2.56%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.79 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-481 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1470 元/吨， 周环比上涨 1.38%。期货市场方面，本周焦炭期货向上反弹，主要是受焦 煤供应端扰动支撑。此外，进入新一年度后，经济政策预期、"反内卷" 政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐显，带动焦炭期货低位反 弹。 焦煤：1 月 08 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1190 点，日内上涨 4.75%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.29 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-7740 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难 言明显改 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货走强。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 供应强预期再现，焦煤大幅反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 成本端支撑，焦炭低位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动再现，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 07 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1773 元/吨，日内录得 7.98%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1678 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1420 元/吨， 周环比下跌 2.07%。期货市场方面，本周焦炭期货向上反弹，主要是受焦 煤供应端扰动支撑。此外，进入新一年度后，经济政策预期、"反内卷" 政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐显，带动焦炭期货走强。 焦煤：1 月 07 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1164 点，日内上涨 7.98%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+11257 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难 言明显改善 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while supply of the five major steel materials is decreasing and demand is increasing, inventory levels are still accumulating, leading to a potentially weak fluctuation in steel prices [1] Group 2 - The hot-rolled coil shows a strong supply and demand dynamic, with inventory shifting from an increase to a decrease [1] - Rebar supply and demand are relatively weak, with demand falling short of expectations, continuing the trend of seasonal inventory accumulation [1] - Overall inventory of the five major materials is in a seasonal accumulation range, putting pressure on the basic steel market [1] Group 3 - On a macro level, expectations for overseas interest rate cuts are increasing, and domestic "anti-involution" policy expectations remain, creating a generally optimistic macro atmosphere that supports the market and limits price declines [1] - The current fundamental pressures are suppressing steel prices, with continuous inventory accumulation and significant shrinkage in steel mill profits, leading to negative feedback pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the market will continue to exhibit a weak fluctuation pattern, with future attention needed on macro policy trends and performance of demand during peak seasons [1] Group 4 - Positive factors include the ongoing expectations for domestic anti-involution policies and relatively good demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - Negative factors encompass poor demand for rebar, excessive seasonal inventory accumulation, and significant overall inventory pressure in steel materials [1] - Rebar futures contracts face substantial warehouse pressure, and steel mill profits are poor, increasing negative feedback pressure [1]

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Military Support - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that multiple European countries are developing specific plans to send troops to Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of security guarantees for Ukraine [1] - A multinational force led by Europe, potentially numbering in the tens of thousands, is being discussed, with the U.S. providing support in command, control systems, intelligence, and surveillance [1] - The EU is exploring new financing channels to provide sustainable funding for the Ukrainian military, including a €150 billion arms procurement fund for joint production with Ukrainian defense companies [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Trends - Industrial silicon futures continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 8390 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 4.06% [7] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakening market confidence and basic supply-demand pressures, with increased production from the northwest region [7][8] - Social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, indicating a trend of destocking in the market [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in the trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures, which were once highly favored in the bond market, due to a shift in investor sentiment towards equities and commodities [2][5][8] - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, with the stock and commodity markets gaining strength while the bond market remains under pressure, leading to a reallocation of funds away from long-term bonds [3][4][5] - The overall bond market is experiencing a weak performance, particularly in long-term bonds, with the yield curve steepening and short-term yields outperforming long-term yields [4][7] Group 2 - The trading volume and open interest in long-term Treasury futures have been rising since the beginning of 2023, but the recent market dynamics have led to a decrease in their attractiveness as investors shift focus to commodities [5][6] - Institutional investors, including banks and insurance companies, are facing challenges in the current market environment, leading to a cautious approach towards increasing their positions in the bond market [7][8] - Future recovery in bond market sentiment is expected to take time, with potential signals being a decrease in risk appetite and an increase in interest rate cut expectations [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of copper prices may be oscillating with an upward bias due to factors such as tight raw material supply and positive sentiment, while the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upper - bound pressure [1]. - Aluminum prices may be in a range - bound state. The support comes from low domestic aluminum ingot inventories and strong external demand, while the pressure is from weak downstream consumption and volatile trade situations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a short - term upward - biased oscillation. The supply is slightly narrowing, and there may be structural disturbances in the LME market, along with potential transportation restrictions due to environmental protection [4]. - Zinc prices still face significant downward risks as the mid - term industry's oversupply situation remains unchanged, despite some market structural changes [5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in a short - term due to the current situation of low supply and weak demand on both the domestic and international fronts [6]. - Nickel prices may have a slight rebound in the short - term due to positive macro - atmosphere, but there is still pressure for price correction as downstream demand improvement is limited [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply improvement is the focus of the market, and the price fluctuations are affected by news and capital games, with high uncertainty [9]. - For alumina, the over - capacity pattern remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices after the short - term bullish sentiment fades [12]. - Stainless steel is likely to continue its range - bound consolidation in the short - term as the price increase is hindered and the demand has not significantly recovered [14]. - The price increase space of cast aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference, although there is cost support [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.64% to $9777/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract is 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 875 to 155875 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 2.3 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 1180 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 0.53% to $2608/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20655 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum's weighted contract's open interest increased by 1.7 to 600000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 55000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.4 to 428500 tons [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.08% to 16933 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 12 to $2016.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 64300 tons. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, and the supply side slightly narrowed [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.07% to 22621 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 12 to $2841/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 119200 tons. Zinc ore supply is in a loose state, and the domestic zinc ingot remains in an oversupply situation [5]. Tin - Price: On August 13, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 269820 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The expected operating range is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic tin prices and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME tin prices [6]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 44 to 7430 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1780 tons [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. High - nickel ferronickel's domestic ex - factory price rose to 920 - 930 yuan/nickel. The expected operating ranges are 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel's main contract and 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton for LME nickel 3M [7]. - Market: Nickel mines' prices were stable, and the ferronickel market sentiment improved, but the oversupply pressure remained [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index closed at 79832 yuan, up 2.57%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [9][10]. - Market: The supply improvement is the focus, and price fluctuations are affected by news and capital games [9]. Alumina - Price: On August 13, 2025, the alumina index closed down 2.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [12]. - Market: The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price dropped to $367/ton, and the import window was closed. It is recommended to short at high prices after the short - term bullish sentiment fades [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13130 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The market is likely to continue range - bound consolidation [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased to 1.1063 million tons, with 300 - series inventory decreasing by 2.82% [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: AD2511 contract rose 0.3% to 20200 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price rose to 20000 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.16 million tons [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tight copper raw material supply, and the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - The short - term aluminum price may face the pressure of digesting inventory accumulation after the upward movement, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the expected "anti - involution" policy [3]. - The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall due to the possible structural disturbances in the LME market and the narrowing supply [4]. - The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall under the support of low LME warehouse receipts, although the medium - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged [6]. - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range due to the short - term supply - demand weakness [7]. - The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still has the pressure of correction as the downstream demand improvement is limited [9]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while holders can choose the entry point according to their own operations, and pay attention to industry chain information and market sentiment [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades [14]. - The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may show a strong - side fluctuating trend [16]. - The price upward space of casting aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season and the large difference between futures and spot prices [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 1.17% to $9840/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79410 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 700 to 155000 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 2.6 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage slightly decreased [1]. - Outlook: The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9700 - 9900 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.45 to 43.25 million tons [3]. - Market: The spot discount in East China narrowed, and the trading improved [3]. - Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may face inventory digestion pressure, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2590 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.21% to 16920 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2004.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [4]. - Market: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the supply narrowed slightly, while the downstream consumption pressure was large [4]. - Outlook: The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.17% to 22637 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2829/ton [6]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory continued to increase to 11.92 million tons [6]. - Market: The zinc ore was in a loose situation, and the LME market had structural disturbances [6]. - Outlook: The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall [6]. Tin - Price: On August 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 270280 yuan/ton, up 0.67% [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1765 tons [7]. - Market: The supply recovery expectation increased, but the short - term smelting was under raw material pressure, and the domestic consumption was weak while the overseas demand was strong [7]. - Outlook: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME [7]. Nickel - Price: The price of high - nickel iron increased, and the refined nickel spot trading was still weak [9]. - Market: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, but the downstream demand improvement was limited [9]. - Outlook: The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index increased by 2.57%, and the LC2511 contract closed up 1.88% [11]. - Market: The bullish sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines was stronger than the fundamental change, and the capital game had high uncertainty [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders choose the entry point according to their own operations, with the LC2511 contract operating in the range of 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [11][12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index increased by 4.12% to 3334 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Shandong and Shanxi decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - Market: The ore supply was disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remained [14]. - Outlook: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13200 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.82% [16]. - Market: The market was short of goods, and the sentiment of holding back goods increased [16]. - Outlook: The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20140 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.15 million tons [18]. - Market: The supply - demand was weak in the off - season, and the cost support was strong [18]. - Outlook: The price upward space is relatively limited [18].