报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 11 月 18 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘后一路震荡走低，尾盘小幅修复，收 跌 0.93%；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.65%、0.30%、 1.17%、1.00%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。期货方面，期货表现整体强于现货，IF、 IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.58%、0.39%、0.89%、0.58%（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is currently struggling, with declines in US stocks, Bitcoin, and the A-share market, making it increasingly difficult to generate profits as the year ends. However, the Hang Seng Tech Index has outperformed the Nasdaq this year, with a gain of 26.36% compared to Nasdaq's 18.7% [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent market conditions show that both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are facing pullback pressures, with the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio near 23, indicating high valuations amid potential economic slowdown [3]. - Concerns regarding AI investments include uncertainty about profitability from significant investments by major companies like Meta and Amazon, as well as rising financing costs for AI projects [3]. - On a recent trading day, the S&P 500 fell by 0.92% and the Nasdaq by 1.58%, while Google saw a notable increase of 3.12% [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Google has been recognized for its transition from an advertising company to an AI platform, showcasing strong growth in its core search advertising business and rapid expansion in cloud services, with a backlog of $155 billion [6]. - Berkshire Hathaway's investment of $4.3 billion in Google signals traditional value investors' confidence in AI platform companies [5]. - Google's return on equity (ROE) has consistently remained above 25% over the past five years, outperforming peers like Meta [6]. Group 3: AI Developments - Alibaba has launched the Qianwen app, an AI assistant aimed at competing with ChatGPT, while Ant Group introduced the Lingguang AI assistant, showcasing advancements in AI applications in China [8]. - The recent launches by Alibaba and Ant Group indicate a shift in the domestic AI application market from technology development to consumer-level implementation [10]. - The success of AI applications will depend on overcoming challenges related to commercialization and ecosystem integration, with user willingness to pay being a critical factor [10]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Tech ETF has seen significant inflows, with a total of 25.9 billion yuan in net inflows since November, indicating strong investor interest despite recent market adjustments [11]. - The current P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Tech Index is 22.26, which is favorable compared to the Nasdaq's 40.89, suggesting a valuation advantage [12]. - Investors are encouraged to consider various ETFs, including those linked to the Hang Seng Tech Index, as potential investment opportunities [13][16].

如果只能用一句话总结2026年的资产方向，那就是："政策发力、新动能崛起，A股仍是核心战场，但 结构比仓位更重要。" 2026，我们处在怎样的宏观环境？ 2025年，中国经济"前高后低"，全年"保5%"有惊无险，出口韧性与政策托底是两大支柱。 而2026年，作为"十五五"开局之年，政策将进入"全面发力期"，根据国盛证券研究表示，GDP目标预计 仍定在5%左右的高位，货币宽松（降准1-2次、降息10-20BP）、财政扩张（赤字率4%、专项债5万 亿）仍是主基调。 | 榴标 | | | 李度预测 | | | | 年度预测 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025Q4E | 202601E | 202602E | 202603E | 202604E | 2025E | 2026E | | 国内经济 | | | | | | | | | 实际 GDP 当季同比(%) | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | | 名义 GDP 当季同比(%) | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices opened lower, with both technology and dividend sectors declining [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index fell over 1%, while stocks like Kingsoft Cloud rose over 6% [1] - The Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159128) saw a net inflow of 39.8 million yuan over two days, reaching historical highs in both shares and scale [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index dropped over 0.7%, with companies like Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing gains [1] - The Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159281) recorded a net inflow of 40.5 million yuan over five days, also achieving historical highs in net inflow days [1] - Tianhong Fund highlighted that the Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index includes high dividend yield companies, benefiting from policy advantages and market characteristics [2] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market are attributed to external volatility and investor profit-taking behavior [2] - Despite the market's current state, there are expectations for upward adjustments in external liquidity, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for asset allocation, focusing on technology and non-ferrous metals for growth, while emphasizing dividends and turnaround stocks for defense [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to experience adjustments, with major indices declining, particularly in the technology and biotechnology sectors, while high-dividend stocks show resilience [1][3]. Market Performance - On November 17, the Hong Kong stock market saw a general decline, with the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) dropping by 0.6% and maintaining a premium trading rate of 0.28%, indicating a buying interest in ETFs during market dips [1][3]. - Key stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi experienced varying degrees of decline, while high-dividend stocks like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum showed gains [3]. Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's overall export volume increased by 13.8% year-on-year in September, suggesting an improvement in the external trade environment [3]. - Analysts from Zhongtai Securities noted that the Hong Kong market is navigating between "China's fundamentals" and "overseas liquidity," with energy and financial sectors likely to act as stabilizers [3]. Investment Insights - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that the current valuation of Hong Kong stocks may have upward potential compared to historical and overseas benchmarks, with foreign capital expected to return significantly next year, potentially exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [3]. - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) was launched on November 12, offering a diversified investment in 30 large-cap Chinese stocks, combining a "technology + dividend" strategy for both offensive and defensive positioning [5]. ETF Composition - The top holdings in the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 Index include Alibaba (18.07%), Tencent (15.44%), and China Construction Bank (7.64%), with the top ten stocks accounting for 72.84% of the index [6].

□本报记者王辉 上周A股与港股市场高位震荡，呈现结构性行情。尽管部分热门科技赛道出现回调，资金却逆势涌入科 创板、人工智能等ETF，释放出对科技成长板块的信心。与此同时，港股创新药与黄金板块领涨市场， 恒生红利等高股息资产也持续吸引资金关注。在"成长"与"价值"双双获青睐的背景下，兼顾"科技进 攻"与"红利防御"的"哑铃策略"再度进入投资者视野，成为当下不少机构把握机遇、控制风险的关键布 局思路。 创新药、黄金等板块领涨 上周，A股、港股市场高位震荡，市场分化与结构性行情特征突出。在ETF市场上，恒生创新药 ETF(159316)等多只跟踪港股医药板块的ETF，单周涨幅均有7%左右。在A股方面，黄金、中药等板块 ETF当周涨幅居前。 招商证券认为，当前公募基金对TMT板块的持仓占比已达历史高位，超配比例达17.45%，交易热度与 股价已处于阶段性顶峰，科技成长风格面临阶段性回摆，但中长期抱团未瓦解，核心仍依赖AI产业趋 势与业绩兑现。同时，市场资金结构转向再平衡，融资资金净流入的趋势或阶段性放缓，但私募量化资 金可能重新主导市场部分领域的结构性机会，相关资金可能仍偏好小盘风格。 此外，华泰证券策略团队认为，近 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the medium - term, the expectation of a slow - bull market in the equity market remains solid. With a temporary decline in market risk appetite, the dumbbell strategy is expected to achieve excess returns. The valuation factor and volatility factor are expected to strengthen marginally. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of excess drawdown due to style mismatch in the convertible bond market. It is recommended to maintain a neutral position to enjoy the excess returns brought by the spill - over of the equity bull market, taking into account both growth and defense [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, the style of the convertible bond market changed significantly, with the tech - growth style retreating and the energy and consumption indices strengthening. The main line of the convertible bond market is not clear, and sector rotation has accelerated. The technology sectors represented by AI computing power and semiconductors have declined, while the power equipment and photovoltaic industries have performed well. The dividend style has strengthened due to risk - aversion and overseas tech valuation bubbles. As the year - end approaches, some investors may lock in profits, and the market is likely to be dominated by rotation, increasing the difficulty of convertible bond trading [11] - In the volatile market, the valuation of bond - like convertible bonds is firm, and the market tends to be defensive in the short - term. As of November 14, 2025, the median price of convertible bonds is close to 134 yuan, a recent high. The market style has shifted from offensive to defensive, with bond - biased convertible bonds performing better than equity - biased ones. The pure - bond premium rate of bond - like convertible bonds has been rising. In terms of valuation, the convertible bond valuation is oscillating at a high level, with the premium rate of bond - like convertible bonds at 84.51%, the balanced convertible bonds at about 22.66%, and the equity - like convertible bonds at 10.18%, down about 1.13 percentage points from the recent high [3][12] - In the volatile market, attention should be paid to the tail risk of the momentum factor to avoid the risk of excess return drawdown caused by trend reversal. The convertible bond momentum factor has performed well this year, mainly because it has captured the "trend effect" in the convertible bond market since Q2 2025. However, with the continuous small - scale outflow of passive funds represented by ETFs, there is a possibility of style switching in the convertible bond market. The momentum effect brought by liquidity premium may be the source of excess returns in the convertible bond market this year. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of excess drawdown due to style mismatch. As the equity market enters the performance verification stage, the valuation factor and volatility factor are expected to strengthen, enabling investors to enjoy the excess returns from the value regression of undervalued convertible bonds and through high - selling and low - buying in the volatile market [4][14][19] - In November, investors are recommended to focus on convertible bonds such as Shangyin, Shouhua, Aola, Jingke, Baolong, Keshun, Yingbo, Wei, Jin 25, and Anji [23] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (recent week, recent two weeks, since September, recent month, recent two months, recent half - year, and recent one - year), including the Wande Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wande Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [24] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - The report shows the top ten and bottom ten individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the recent week [26][27] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of bond - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [28][36] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - The report shows the proportion trend of high - price bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [38]

Summary of China Taiping's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Taiping - **Industry**: Insurance Key Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Taiping's net profit growth exceeded 60%, and net assets increased by 31% compared to the beginning of the year [2][3] - In Q3 2025, Taiping Life, a major subsidiary, reported a net profit increase of 370% for the quarter, with a year-to-date net profit growth also exceeding 60% [3] Strategic Focus and Transformation - The company successfully transitioned to a dividend insurance model, achieving a target where at least 50% of new single premiums come from this product by 2025 [2][7] - The focus for 2025 is on transformation rather than rapid growth, laying the groundwork for a strong start in 2026 [2][5] - The company is shifting towards a diversified product strategy, emphasizing traditional insurance 2.0 in the latter half of 2025 [2][5] Investment Strategy - In Q3 2025, China Taiping adjusted its investment strategy, increasing its allocation to A-shares, with 30% of new premium funds invested in this market [4][9] - The investment yield for the first half of 2025 was influenced by a conservative approach, but the company is now focusing on growth stocks in the A-share market [9][10] Tax and Regulatory Environment - The high effective tax rate in 2024 was due to losses under old accounting standards, leading to significant deferred tax assets [8] - The company expects a more accurate and lower effective tax rate after transitioning to new accounting standards in 2026 [8] Pension Ecosystem Development - China Taiping has made significant progress in building a pension ecosystem, with high occupancy rates in projects like Shanghai Wutong and Chengdu Furong [8] - The company has completed 5 to 6 major asset projects and is expanding through a light asset model to over seventy institutions [8] Competitive Positioning - The management team is highly market-oriented and committed to maintaining competitiveness through strategic execution and product diversification [6][7] - The company aims to balance between traditional and dividend insurance products while maintaining a competitive edge in the market [7] Future Outlook - China Taiping anticipates continued growth in net profit, value, and net assets, focusing on a stable investment strategy amid market uncertainties [10][11] - The company is optimistic about its stock price performance, believing it is undervalued compared to peers [17] Miscellaneous - The comprehensive cost ratio for Taiping Property & Casualty Insurance was 96.9% in the first half of 2025, marking a historical high [14] - The company is actively exploring new market opportunities while consolidating its existing positions in both domestic and international markets [14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting China Taiping's financial performance, strategic initiatives, investment strategies, and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The two ETFs under China Merchants Fund, namely the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) and the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209), are demonstrating stable cash flow return capabilities with their recent dividend distributions, marking the seventh and fifth distributions of the year respectively [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution Details - The dividend distribution record date for both ETFs is set for November 14, 2025 [1] - The unit dividend for the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF is 0.0030 CNY, with a dividend ratio of 0.26% based on a net asset value of 1.1626 CNY [2] - The unit dividend for the CSI Dividend Quality ETF is 0.0040 CNY, with a dividend ratio of 0.33% based on a net asset value of 1.2056 CNY [2] - The payout dates are November 19, 2025, for the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF and November 20, 2025, for the CSI Dividend Quality ETF [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) follows a "deep value" strategy, focusing on "high dividend + low volatility" factors, primarily investing in defensive sectors such as finance, energy, and utilities, with a dividend yield close to 6% [3] - The CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) adopts a "value growth" strategy, emphasizing "high dividend + high quality," selecting high-quality companies from growth sectors like consumer and pharmaceuticals, maintaining a dividend yield of 3%-5% while showing better price elasticity [3] - Investors are advised to adjust their allocations based on risk preferences, with conservative investors leaning towards the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF for stable returns, while aggressive investors may focus on the CSI Dividend Quality ETF for growth opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent cautious stance of ETF managers contrasts sharply with the heated market environment, indicating a shift towards a more prudent investment approach among institutional investors as they navigate market volatility and style rebalancing [1][5]. ETF Positioning - Several newly established ETFs are adopting a "low position" strategy, with some having equity positions as low as 10% or even close to zero, reflecting a wait-and-see approach before fully deploying capital [1][3]. - For instance, the Huaxia CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF had an equity position of 33.19% as of November 11, which is below the required thresholds for investment in index components [2]. - Other ETFs, such as the Jiashi CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF and the Yifangda CSI Satellite Industry ETF, reported equity positions of 19.99% and 10.02%, respectively, as of early November [2]. Institutional Caution - The cautious behavior of ETFs is notable, as they typically aim to quickly align with their benchmark indices. However, recent listings show a significant delay in building positions, suggesting a more conservative approach from fund managers [4]. - Regulatory guidelines emphasize the need for fund managers to ensure compliance with investment ratios before listing, yet many funds are still in the process of building their portfolios, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4]. Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced volatility around the 4000-point mark, with a shift in market focus from technology stocks to sectors like new energy and cyclical stocks, which are showing improved performance [5]. - Institutional attitudes have shifted from aggressive to cautious, with passive funds slowing their pace of investment and actively managed funds also adopting a more conservative stance [5]. Investment Strategies - The concepts of "balanced allocation" and "barbell strategy" are regaining prominence among institutional investors, moving away from the previously favored growth-oriented strategies [6]. - Historical data suggests a tendency for a shift from growth to value styles in the fourth quarter, indicating a potential rebalancing rather than a complete style switch [6]. - Investment firms recommend a barbell strategy, combining high-dividend assets with a focus on quality growth assets, to navigate the current market conditions [6][7].