来源：证券时报 迷雾之中，2025年12月26日，一场主题为"新格局、新动能、新机遇——科技引领下的全球多元配 置"的"DeepAlpha年度对话"在北京举行。这场由华夏基金主办的策略会，汇集了知名经济学家刘煜辉、 华夏基金旗下宏观和策略分析师祝青、海外研究小组组长郭琨研，以及顾鑫峰、施知序、孙蒙、华龙等 擅长不同风格的基金经理。 时间的河漫过2025年的堤岸，留下错综的印痕。 过去的三百六十多个昼夜足够精彩，世界在宏大叙事中加速旋转——我们见证了AI的浪潮正以前所未 有的力量驱动现实，见证了科技赛道的不断突围，见证了中国资产在变局中涌动出的澎湃动能，也见证 了美元信用版图浮现的裂痕，以及全球资本在失衡与再平衡之间寻找新的坐标系的过程。 然而，当这些史诗级的主题交汇于年末的盘面，有太多人在起伏不定的行情里感受到了失重般的眩晕， 未来仿佛隐于雾中，脉络未清。人们迫切地想要知道，何处将诞生下一只"易中天"般的明星股票，何处 将崛起下一个从寂静中爆发的产业风口，何处将凝聚下一场在市场分歧中悄然形成的共识，以及，何处 才能寻得那一套能够穿透迷雾、真正解释这个时代的投资叙事。 从全球宏观变局到微观产业脉络，从科技创新浪 ...

时间的河漫过2025年的堤岸，留下错综的印痕。 过去的三百六十多个昼夜足够精彩，世界在宏大叙事中加速旋转——我们见证了AI的浪潮正以前所未 有的力量驱动现实，见证了科技赛道的不断突围，见证了中国资产在变局中涌动出的澎湃动能，也见证 了美元信用版图浮现的裂痕，以及全球资本在失衡与再平衡之间寻找新的坐标系的过程。 然而，当这些史诗级的主题交汇于年末的盘面，有太多人在起伏不定的行情里感受到了失重般的眩晕， 未来仿佛隐于雾中，脉络未清。人们迫切地想要知道，何处将诞生下一只"易中天"般的明星股票，何处 将崛起下一个从寂静中爆发的产业风口，何处将凝聚下一场在市场分歧中悄然形成的共识，以及，何处 才能寻得那一套能够穿透迷雾、真正解释这个时代的投资叙事。 华夏基金多资产全能平台是公司基于资产配置核心理念构建的战略性平台，旨在通过整合全资产类别与 投研资源，为投资者提供一站式、全流程的资产管理解决方案。 多资产全能平台力争打通从资产发现、定义、创设到管理的整体业务链条，覆盖主动权益、固定收益、 指数投资、量化策略、FOF、REITs、跨境投资及另类投资等多个领域，形成超过400只公募产品的多元 化产品体系，能够响应全球配置、行 ...

时间的河漫过2025年的堤岸，留下错综的印痕。 过去的三百六十多个昼夜足够精彩，世界在宏大叙事中加速旋转——我们见证了AI的浪潮正以前所未有的力 量驱动现实，见证了科技赛道的不断突围，见证了中国资产在变局中涌动出的澎湃动能，也见证了美元信用版 图浮现的裂痕，以及全球资本在失衡与再平衡之间寻找新的坐标系的过程。 然而，当这些史诗级的主题交汇于年末的盘面，有太多人在起伏不定的行情里感受到了失重般的眩晕，未来仿 佛隐于雾中，脉络未清。人们迫切地想要知道，何处将诞生下一只"易中天"般的明星股票，何处将崛起下一个 从寂静中爆发的产业风口，何处将凝聚下一场在市场分歧中悄然形成的共识，以及，何处才能寻得那一套能够 穿透迷雾、真正解释这个时代的投资叙事。 迷雾之中，2025年12月26日，一场主题为"新格局、新动能、新机遇——科技引领下的全球多元配 置"的"DeepAlpha年度对话"在北京举行。这场由华夏基金主办的策略会，汇集了知名经济学家刘煜辉、华夏基 金旗下宏观和策略分析师祝青、海外研究小组组长 郭琨研 ，以及顾鑫峰、施知序、孙蒙、华龙等擅长不同风 格的基金经理。 从全球宏观变局到微观产业脉络，从科技创新浪潮到多元资产 ...

近期监管层联合打出的政策组合拳，为A股市场带来久违的修复行情，尤其是此前持续回调的红利板 块，受益政策利好提振应声上涨。Wind数据统计，截至2024年9月26日收盘，中证红利指数本周 （0923-0926）涨幅已超10%，达10.91%。 从此次推出的一揽子重磅政策看，除了降准降息、下调存量房贷利率，央行还首创针对股市的两大结构 性货币政策工具，其中"创设股票回购增持专项再贷款，引导商业银行向上市公司和主要股东提供贷 款，用于回购增持上市公司股票"，此举对于具有市值管理要求的央国企和ROE稳定的民营蓝筹而言具 有重要意义，有望提高其增持股票的能力。考虑资产负债率要求，有机构预计，破净央国企+流通市值 不大公司的股价估值弹性或更为受益。 中银证券分析指出，本次"一行一局一会"系列政策短期或有效提振市场情绪，修复市场流动性。就后续 市场走势而言，偏稳健的红利，泛红利类资产或相对受益。首先这类资产拥有更加稳定且充沛的现金 流，未来增持回购力度或相对更大。其次，流动性宽松带来市场利率下行的环境下，红利类资产的股息 吸引力或持续。中金公司也预计，银行提供贷款支持上市公司和股东回购和增持股票可能利好高股息公 司，但结合 ...

知名经济学家刘煜辉表示，本轮AI科创革命成功的关键，是AI后端能否形成强大的产业生态，形成经 济闭环。中国凭借强大的落地能力和完备的产业生态，有望实现这一闭环。面对宏观面的不确定性，他 主张以"哑铃策略"进行有效风控，一端聚焦高股息资产，另一端布局长期结构性增长机会，如循环经 济、新能源产业、深空航天产业等方向。 华夏基金宏观策略研究员祝青从更具操作性的年度视角出发，将宏观线索映射为具体的策略方向。她认 为，2026年的宏观主线或是"行业结构性景气格局延续"与"资金向权益资产的再配置"，一方面，AI是景 气高增的产业方向；另一方面，国内权益资产的估值虽然提升，但内外部依旧存在继续配置权益的动 力。 本报讯(记者王宁)2025年，中国资本市场关于AI的热度持续升温。近日，华夏基金举办的主题为"年度 对话|DeepAlpha：科技引领下的全球多元配置"活动，以期帮助投资者屏蔽市场噪音，捕捉价值赛道机 遇。 祝青认为，2026年市场可能进入"盈利兑现期"，结构性机会大于指数性机会，投资需更聚焦业绩的确定 性与产业逻辑的持续性。除坚守AI高景气主线外，可增配具备股息增长弹性的"类红利"资产作为组合缓 冲垫，并关注港股 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential for gold prices to surge due to a crisis of trust in the US dollar and treasury system, with predictions of gold reaching nearly $2000 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a significant shift in global capital dynamics [1][11][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The investment strategy for 2026 is suggested to be based on a "dumbbell strategy," focusing on dividend stocks on one end and investments that bet on national fortunes and growth on the other [6][83][84]. - Specific investment directions include AI edge applications, gold and non-ferrous metals, and opportunities in energy and technology sectors, particularly in response to US-China competition [7][85][68]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Dynamics - The current economic landscape is characterized by a G2 competition narrative, with the US heavily investing in AI as a means to secure its economic future, which has led to a significant increase in the market capitalization of AI-related companies [13][14][96]. - The US AI sector faces challenges in forming a complete economic loop, as it lacks a robust manufacturing base to support the backend of AI applications, which may hinder its long-term success [3][120][121]. Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - There is a potential scenario where a collapse of the dollar could trigger an unprecedented rise in gold prices, with the possibility of a significant economic shift favoring China as it implements large-scale domestic policies akin to the Marshall Plan [4][82][114][115]. - The discussion emphasizes that the future of AI and its economic implications may ultimately rest with China, which possesses the necessary manufacturing capabilities and ecosystem to create a complete economic loop [38][122][128].

当人工智能的浪潮席卷千行百业，全球科技巨头加速算力布局，资本市场关于AI的热度亦如燎原之火 蔓延。在一片喧嚣之中，华夏基金举办的"年度对话|DeepAlpha：科技引领下的全球多元配置"，正试图 以冷静分析帮助投资者穿透市场噪音，捕捉价值赛道。 本次年度对话汇聚知名经济学家刘煜辉以及华夏基金祝青、顾鑫峰、施知序、郭琨研、孙蒙以及华龙等 主被动、策略、量化等多位嘉宾，围绕市场新格局、新动能与新机遇，从宏观到科技、从全球到配置进 行多维度解读，旨在为投资者在AI浪潮与宏观大势中提供追踪Beta、发现Alpha的思考锚点。 他认为，本轮AI科创革命成功的关键，是AI后端能否形成强大的产业生态，形成经济闭环。我国凭借 强大的落地能力和完备的产业生态，有望实现这一闭环。面对宏观不确定性，他主张以"哑铃策略"进行 有效风控，一端聚焦高股息资产，另一端布局长期结构性增长机会，如循环经济、新能源产业、深空航 天产业等方向。 华夏基金宏观策略研究员祝青则从更具操作性的年度视角出发，将宏观线索映射为具体的策略方向。她 认为，2026年的宏观主线或是"行业结构性景气格局延续"与"资金向权益资产的再配置"，一方面，AI是 景气高增的 ...

面对市场在上半年一度出现的大幅波动，国泰海通首席策略分析师方奕是各券商策略分析师中坚定看多 者之一。那么，2026年A股大势有望如何演绎？行情可能呈现出哪些结构特征？"存款搬家"的趋势是否 还能延续？近日，带着这些投资者关注的问题，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）对方奕进行 了专访。 展望2026年市场，方奕继续坚定看好A股，认为"转型牛"远未结束，2026年有望挑战十年前高位。至于 2026年的市场风格，方奕认为，"哑铃型"行情逐渐失效，将向质量成长切换。关于投资方向，方奕指 出，新兴科技为主线，周期消费看转型，大金融板块因业绩改善、估值偏低值得看好。 展望："转型牛"将会延续 2025年，是"9·24"行情启动后的首个完整年份。在"科技牛"的带动下，A股市场继续走强，上证指数时 隔10年一度重返4000点上方。 市场风格已经在切换，2026年我认为科技和非科技都有机会，权重和小市值也有机会，但"哑铃策略"会 继续向质量成长切换。至于投资方向，新兴科技是主线，周期消费看转型，继续看好大金融。自2024 年"9·24"宏观政策积极介入后，经济尾部风险大幅降低。2025年随着DeepSeek（深度求索）、 ...

Core Insights - The investment strategy of dividend investing is regaining prominence as a stable investment approach in 2025, contrasting with previous years focused on growth and resilience [1] - Dividend funds are highlighted as a key investment tool for 2025, offering steady returns and enhancing overall yield through dividends [1] Group 1: Dividend Fund Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, public funds have distributed over 220 billion yuan in dividends, with a total of 3,492 funds implementing dividend distributions, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.5% [2] - Leading fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund have demonstrated significant dividend capabilities, each surpassing 10 billion yuan in annual dividends [2] - Equity funds are increasingly contributing to the total dividend pool, with their share rising as bond funds' contribution declines, indicating a shift in investor preference [2][3] Group 2: Specific Fund Highlights - The top five funds in terms of dividend payouts in 2025 are all ETFs, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF leading at 8.39 billion yuan [3] - Funds with a high frequency of dividends, particularly those focused on dividend strategies, have shown strong performance, with some funds achieving over 10 distributions in 2025 [3] - The highest-performing dividend fund in 2025 is E Fund Kexiang, with a return of 66.37%, significantly outperforming others in the same category [3] Group 3: Fee Structure and Growth - Dividend funds are characterized by lower management and custody fees compared to actively managed equity funds, making them more attractive in a low-fee environment [4] - As of mid-2025, the asset management scale of dividend funds reached approximately 240 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase driven by low fees and improved dividend mechanisms [5] - The growth of dividend funds is attributed to a combination of low-fee environments, enhanced dividend mechanisms, and rising demand for stable returns amid market uncertainties [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that dividend funds will continue to be a favored asset class due to ongoing policy support for dividend distributions from both funds and listed companies [6] - Key areas of focus for 2026 include traditional industry leaders with stable earnings and clear dividend policies, as well as emerging dividend stocks with strong payout intentions [7] - The long-term value of Hong Kong dividend assets is also highlighted, particularly for investors seeking cash flow returns in a low-interest-rate environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the high dividend ETF fund (513820) showing resilience and attracting significant capital inflows, indicating strong investor interest in dividend-yielding assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed trend in early trading on December 24, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index down by 0.42% [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) recorded a slight decline of 0.08%, with a premium widening to 0.73% by the end of the trading session, reflecting active buying interest [1][3]. - The fund has seen a strong inflow of over 600 million yuan for 17 consecutive days, bringing its total size to over 4.3 billion yuan, significantly outperforming other ETFs in the same index [1][5]. Group 2: Fund Composition and Performance - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) experienced declines, with notable exceptions like HSBC Holdings, which rose over 1% [3][4]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the fund include China Pacific Insurance, China Telecom, and Agricultural Bank of China, with varying performance among them [4]. - The fund's index has a dividend yield of 7.25%, which is higher than similar indices in both Hong Kong and A-shares, establishing it as a leading choice for dividend investors [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Multiple factors are contributing to the opening of a mid-term trading window for Hong Kong stocks, including a market adjustment that has increased safety margins and a continued net inflow of southbound funds [5]. - The current environment suggests a focus on high-quality dividend stocks with sustainable payouts and stable earnings, as the defensive attributes of dividend investments may weaken in a rising interest rate environment [6]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) is positioned as a "pure high dividend" strategy, which is expected to perform well in the current market conditions, especially as institutional demand for dividend assets increases [10][11].