Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot price has been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. A large number of piglets sold by large - scale farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and it is necessary to judge the path based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hoarding. Wait for subsequent spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,340 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 80,558 lots, an increase of 58,279 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 83,925 lots, an increase of 5,729 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 15,375 lots, an increase of 10,983 lots, and the open interest is 42,922 lots, an increase of 1,156 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2601 contract is 6,507 lots, an increase of 4,709 lots, and the open interest is 17,841 lots, an increase of 227 lots [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 790 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,580 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The spread between Pig 9 - 11 is 790 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton; the spread between Pig 11 - 1 is - 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic The futures market is in the expected trading stage. Factors such as state reserve purchase expectations and short - term bullish sentiment are driving the market. The large number of piglets sold in the first quarter will affect the supply starting from July. The inventory reduction path is complex, and it is necessary to wait for spot verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are given [5].

Group 1: Report Summary of Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the off - season, market participants worry that the demand for the black sector will decline, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector [6]. - Short - term production restrictions have a more obvious impact on steel. If short - term production restrictions cannot be sustained, the positive impact on profits and steel prices will not last long [6]. - The basis of black sector varieties that were previously at a large futures discount has been rapidly repaired recently, with coking coal and coke showing futures premiums and iron ore futures approaching parity [6]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term disturbances in coal mine production in July have subsided. If the overall situation of coal mine resumption changes little, the phased high of the coking coal and coke futures may have been reached [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly fluctuate following coal prices. Ferrosilicon's supply has a slight increase, and demand is okay in the short - term. Silicomanganese's supply continues to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [6]. - For iron ore, short - term attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restrictions on molten iron and whether the production restriction wave will spread to other regions. Currently, iron ore is in a shock range [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On July 1st, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3016 yuan/ton with a decline of 7 yuan (- 0.23%), HC2601 at 3136 yuan/ton with a decline of 4 yuan (- 0.13%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton with a decline of 6 yuan (- 0.20%), HC2510 at 3136 yuan/ton with an increase of 2 yuan (0.06%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also showed different changes on July 1st. For example, the cross - month spread of RB2510 - 2601 was - 13 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - On July 1st, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3100 yuan/ton with a decline of 40 yuan, Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 yuan, etc. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions also had different changes [2]. Industry Analysis - **Steel**: Short - term production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to a rebound in the virtual profit of the futures market on Tuesday. If the production restrictions cannot be sustained, the positive impact on profits and steel prices will be short - lived. The basis of steel varieties has been rapidly repaired recently [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coking coal is still good, with most prices rising. The supply of coal mines in July is expected to increase. The futures prices of coking coal and coke fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. The market expects stricter environmental production restrictions in the future. If the coal mine resumption situation changes little, the phased high of the coking coal and coke futures may have been reached [6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon's price is greatly affected by coal. Its supply has a slight increase, and demand is okay in the short - term. Silicomanganese's supply continues to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose. Their prices mainly fluctuate following coal and steel [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The news of production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi led to an expansion of steel mill profits in the futures market. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restrictions on molten iron and whether the production restriction wave will spread to other regions. Currently, iron ore is in a shock range [6]. Investment Suggestions - **Steel**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Consider entering the market for cash - and - carry arbitrage as the basis approaches the appropriate point. Take profit on short - term long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread at an appropriate time [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For single - side trading, set the previous high as the stop - loss point and establish short positions on rebounds. Industrial customers can take advantage of the premium to conduct selling hedging [6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Buy call options at low prices due to their high price elasticity [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Short at the upper edge of the shock range [6].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a significant increase of 7.80%, driven by market expectations of stable spot prices and geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shipping index futures have been on a downward trend since mid-May due to weak fundamentals, with supply continuously increasing and demand recovery falling short of expectations [3]. - The average weekly capacity for European routes is projected to reach 288,000 TEU in July, a 13% year-on-year increase, and is expected to rise to 292,000 TEU in August [3]. - The shipping market is returning to fundamental trading logic, with geopolitical risk premiums and tariff policies acting as short-term disruptive factors [3]. Group 2: Price Expectations - Market analysts suggest that shipping companies may issue price increase notices in anticipation of the peak season, despite the lack of clear positive fundamentals [2][4]. - The current spot market is entering a demand peak, with shipping companies likely to adopt pricing strategies aimed at preventing further declines [4]. - The potential for price increases is contingent on the recovery of terminal demand and the execution of price hikes by shipping companies [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Key factors influencing the shipping index futures include U.S. tariff policies, spot market conditions, and geopolitical situations, particularly the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East [3][4]. - The expiration of the "reciprocal tariff" policy's grace period and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are critical, as outcomes could significantly impact global trade dynamics and market sentiment [3]. - Any escalation in geopolitical tensions could delay the resumption of shipping operations through critical routes like the Suez Canal [4].

钢材：缺乏持续驱动，重回区间运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 在短期反弹后，期货重新回落。目前钢厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高 | | | | 企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好， | | | | 库存变化不大，供需矛盾比较有限。上行缺少驱动支撑，但在基差修复背 | | | | 景下行情重回区间运行。【2970，3010】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 | | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。前期上行主要受情绪改善推动，基本面支 | | | | 撑比较有限，重回区间运行状态。【3090，3130】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 供给端发货冲量结束，后期外端港口有检修，发货难增。整体供需结构环 | | | | 比继续改善，矿价偏强运行。观点：短期区间参与【700,730】 | | 焦炭 | 震荡 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of the steel sector has slightly narrowed. In the off - season, there is still concern about a decline in demand, and the black - metal sector lacks a strong rebound driver. [4][5] - For coking coal and coke, although the fundamentals are improving, the futures prices lack upward drive after reaching certain levels. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine production in July. [6][7] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly fluctuate following coal and steel prices. [7] - Iron ore prices have risen with the overall recovery of industrial products. The price is currently in a trading range, and it can be short - sold near the upper limit. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, the futures market rose slightly and then fell back, with weak upward - continuation momentum. Spot trading volume and prices improved slightly compared to the previous two weeks. The prices of coal and coke futures declined at the end of the session due to production - resumption news and capital outflows. The basis of black - metal varieties has been rapidly repaired. [5] - Suggestion: Wait and see for single - side trading. Focus on the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage as the basis approaches the re - entry point. Short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: Coking coal auctions were fully completed with most prices rising, while port - traded coke was weak. Downstream enterprises replenished stocks moderately. Some previously shut - down coal mines have started to resume production. [6] - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined rapidly after reaching 830 and 1430 respectively, lacking upward drive. The fundamentals are improving, but downstream replenishment motivation is limited. [7] - Suggestion: For speculators, set a stop - loss at the previous high and short on rebounds. Industrial customers can take advantage of the premium for selling hedging. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: Supply has increased slightly. Demand has risen as steel tenders are settled, iron - making is at a high level, and the demand for metal magnesium has recovered. Short - term supply and demand are acceptable. The price mainly follows coal and steel. [7] - Manganese silicon: Supply has continued to rise, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose with rising inventories. The price mainly fluctuates and follows steel, with attention on coal and manganese ore prices. [7] - Suggestion: Buy call options at low prices for their high price elasticity. [7] Iron Ore - The spot price has declined to narrow the basis, and the optimal deliverable is orbf. The steel mill's profit remains high, and iron - making is expected to stay above 240. The steel data has exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is in a trading range. [7] - Suggestion: Short - sell near the upper limit of the trading range. [7]

Group 1 - Industrial silicon and polysilicon have rebounded strongly due to production cut news, with industrial silicon contracts hitting the daily limit and polysilicon rising nearly 10% over three days [1] - The market is experiencing a price rebound in polysilicon futures, with the main contract rising over 5% in early trading [3] - Despite the recent price increases, the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest that polysilicon prices may still face downward pressure due to weak fundamentals [5] Group 2 - Industrial silicon futures saw multiple contracts hitting the daily limit with a price increase of 6% [6] - The fundamentals for industrial silicon have slightly improved due to production cuts, but demand remains weak, limiting the upward price movement [8] - Four positive factors for industrial silicon include a 21 furnace reduction in Xinjiang, strong coal prices, underwhelming production during the flood season, and a continuous decline in social and warehouse inventories [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - The PVC market remains in a weak supply - demand situation, with the supply surplus unchanged and cost - side support weak, while the caustic soda market faces increasing supply pressure and lack of positive drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,871 yuan/ton (+27), the East China basis was - 141 yuan/ton (-27), and the South China basis was - 41 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was - 1.0 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), social inventory was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate was 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC开工 rate was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,279 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 159 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 111.28 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-50.51) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda开工 rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate was 80.74% (-0.13%), the dyeing and printing East China开工 rate was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern remains weak, with the supply surplus unchanged due to high production and expected new capacity in 6 - 7 months, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is weak domestically, while the export is increasing, but the sustainability of exports is uncertain [3] Caustic Soda - The supply pressure is expected to increase due to planned new capacity, the market trading is weak, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is shrinking. The demand of the main downstream alumina is increasing, but the non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The factory inventory is still high, and the caustic soda market lacks positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Adopt a cautiously bearish approach and continue to monitor macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress, with the market remaining under pressure [4]

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and predicts that they will all experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 706.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.43%. The positions increased by 4,370 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most ores decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%. In terms of inventory and demand, there were corresponding changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8][9]. - **News**: In May 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production. On June 19, steel production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand changed [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Ferrosilicon is affected by sector sentiment resonance and silicomanganese has a firm ore - end quotation, both with wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [10]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed, and a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Four rounds of coke price cuts have been implemented [2][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of coke and coking coal futures changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts also changed [13][15]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of coking coal in some regions changed, and the positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed that the long positions of coking coal increased and the short positions decreased, while for coke, both long and short positions decreased [13][14][15]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Demand remains to be released, with wide - range fluctuations [2][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. There were corresponding prices for domestic and foreign trade thermal coal, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE did not change [18][19]. Logs - **Market Trend**: The basis is being repaired, with wide - range fluctuations [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed, and the prices of various types of logs in the spot market were mostly stable [21]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows basis repair and wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price on June 19, 2025, was 798, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 4.0%. The trading volume was 21,160, a daily decrease of 34.0% and a weekly increase of 39%. The open interest was 22,957, a daily decrease of 1.9% and a weekly increase of 9%. Similar data is presented for 2509 and 2511 contracts [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2507 contract was - 48 on June 19, 2025, with a daily increase of 5.5% and a weekly increase of 75%. The basis between 2507 - 2509 contract had a daily increase of 700.0% and a weekly decrease of 124% [1] - **Spot Market Data**: In the log spot market, most prices remained stable on June 19, 2025, with some showing minor weekly changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Shandong market was 750 yuan/m³, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. In the wood square spot market, prices were mostly unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to May 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The log trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]