Report Overview - **Date**: December 19, 2025 - **Researcher**: Zhang Xiaojun - **Contact**: 0371 - 65617380 - **Qualification**: F0242716 (Futures Practitioner), Z0011864 (Futures Trading Consultant) Report Key Points Corn - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Corn prices face both support and pressure, and are seeking to verify support levels [4] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the northeast and north China rose slightly; north - south port prices were stable with a slight increase; corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 627 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong narrowed; in November 2025, corn imports reached a yearly high, with cumulative imports from January - November down 86.08% year - on - year, and cumulative imports from October - November up 67.27% year - on - year; the bid - invitation sales of imported corn by CGSCC had a 100% transaction rate [4][5] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, prices oscillate due to seasonal selling pressure and support from farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream inventory building; medium - term, seasonal selling pressure remains before the Spring Festival, and policy grain auctions may provide supply next year; long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution and planting costs, with policy orientation being key [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, suggest waiting or short - term trading. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2200 - 2220; for the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190. Consider low - buying opportunities if support holds [6] Pig - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: After the Winter Solstice stocking, the supply pressure of pigs is emerging [9] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price fell; the number of sows in October 2025 was below 40 million; the number of piglets from January - September increased, with a decrease in October; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the fat - lean price difference was stable; and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, the end of Winter Solstice stocking has led to a price decline. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase until March next year, with relief starting from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September next year, and may ease after that if sow inventory continues to decline [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic; the 2603 contract returns to range - trading; far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. If sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities after September next year. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [11] Egg - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The egg market has a weak current situation but strong expectations, with near - month contracts being weak and far - month contracts being strong [16] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg spot prices were stable with a slight increase; inventory increased significantly; the price of old hens decreased; the number of laying hens in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and is expected to decline further in December [16] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are in a low - range, and focus on downstream consumption and inventory. Medium - term, egg supply pressure remains, and the upward momentum of spot prices is limited. Long - term, the increasing scale of egg production may limit price increases, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in near - month contracts after inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on whether low prices can drive culling and capacity reduction. Currently, supply pressure exists before the second quarter next year, and whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on first - quarter culling [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, the iron ore price is suppressed, and one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures will oscillate in the range of 750 - 820. There is support from downstream restocking, and there is a need for basis repair. Although the price is at a high level, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream demand, the iron ore demand is stable. [3] Coke Industry - Coke futures have basically overdrawn the spot price cut expectation, and the further decline space is limited. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal spot and futures prices are in a range - bound oscillation after a significant decline. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have slight changes, with some prices falling. Futures contract prices also have some fluctuations. For example, rebar spot in the South China region decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 3203 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The profit of some steel products has improved, such as the profit of East China rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 2 yuan/ton. [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The output of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decline of 0.9%. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decline of 0.3%. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.0, a decline of 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decline of 1.2%. [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of the January contract also changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton to 803.3 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract for Carajás fines decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton to 3.8 yuan/ton. [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly. For example, the spot price of Carajás fines in Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton. [3] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3%. [3] Demand - The weekly daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The weekly daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%. [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices remained unchanged, and futures contract prices decreased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained at 1662 yuan/ton, and the coke 05 - contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [7] Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. [7] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 3.6 tons to 2.0 tons. [7] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal spot increased slightly, and futures contract prices decreased. For example, the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1205 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 - contract price decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 1071 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The raw coal output increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal output increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1%. [7] Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in hot - metal output and the change in coking plant production. [7] Inventory Changes - The inventory of washing plants, ports, and coking plants decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased. The total inventory increased slightly. [7]

Group 1 - The black metal sector in the domestic futures market showed mostly positive performance, with iron ore futures opening at 791.0 yuan/ton and reaching a high of 800.0 yuan, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.08% [1] - Satellite data indicates that from November 17 to November 23, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.317 million tons, a significant decrease of 1.536 million tons, marking the lowest inventory level since the beginning of the year [1] - In the third week of November 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments totaled 25.5221 million tons, down from 33.4844 million tons in November of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.823 million tons, an increase of 3.44% compared to last November [1] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in iron ore prices are largely influenced by coking coal prices, which have weakened due to domestic supply stabilization policies and the resumption of coal shipments from Mongolia, thereby supporting iron ore prices through improved steel mill profits [2] - The iron ore market is currently balanced in the short term, with high shipment volatility and stable iron water production, while structural shortages in medium-grade ore resources are leading to tight deliverable resources, resulting in strong spot prices and widening basis [2] - Macro factors such as strong employment data from the U.S. and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve have dampened expectations for a rate cut in December, putting pressure on risk asset prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Spot Regional Differentiation, Corn Focus on Low-Long Opportunities; Pig Prices Start Bottoming, Futures Trading for Basis Repair; Strong Expectation but Weak Reality, Eggs Focus on Regression Repair" - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun - Contact Information: 0371 - 65617380 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0242716 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011864 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: Spot prices show regional differentiation, with Northeast China rebounding from a decline and North China relatively weak. There are low-long opportunities, and a range trading strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [5][7]. - Pigs: Pig prices are starting to bottom out, and the futures market is trading for basis repair. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic, while far-term contracts will trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity [9][11]. - Eggs: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. Eggs should focus on regression repair. Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained [14][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 24th, the purchase price of deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China was 2015 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices at north and south ports were mainly weak and stable [5]. - As of October 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, totaling 61,968 [5]. - The wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +270 yuan/ton as of October 23 [5]. - More than 60% of the autumn grain harvest nationwide is complete. The purchase by the China Grain Reserves Corporation in Northeast China has supported the market sentiment, and the autumn harvest in North China is accelerating [5]. Market Logic - Short term: The spot price in Northeast China has stopped falling and stabilized, while North China is stable with a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality. The lower support for the futures price is in the range of 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat-corn price difference [6]. - Medium term: Band trading should be carried out around the drivers of new-season corn, focusing on the opening price of new grain, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building efforts. A wide-range trading strategy is recommended [6]. - Long term: The pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [6]. Trading Strategy - In the medium and long term, a range trading strategy is maintained. Pay attention to the low-long opportunities of the 2601 contract after a pullback to test the support level at 2100. The first pressure level is 2150, and the second is 2160 - 2170 [7]. Pigs Important Information - On the 24th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the north and stable in the south on the morning of the 25th [9]. - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing supply of pigs in the second half of the year [9]. - As of October 23, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.6 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [13]. - On October 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [13]. - On October 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 95 to 206 [13]. Market Logic - Short term: After a rapid decline, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the spot market may enter a low-level shock bottoming stage. The futures market will continue the basis repair logic [10]. - Medium term: The number of new-born piglets from February to June increased month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year, which limits the rise in pig prices [10]. - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no impact from epidemics, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - The policy guidance on sow de-capacity can only affect the pig supply from the second half of next year. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see. Far-term contracts should trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity, and pay attention to the actual change in sow inventory. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before obvious sow de-capacity occurs [11]. - For the 2601 contract, the support level is 11300 - 11500, and the pressure level is 12300 - 12500. For the 2603 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11700 - 11800. For the 2605 contract, the support is 11800 - 11900, and the pressure is 12200 - 12300. For the 2607 contract, the support is 12400 - 12600, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [11]. Eggs Important Information - On the 24th, the main line of egg spot prices rose slightly, and the low-price areas were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.9 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [14]. - On the 24th, the inventory level was stable with a slight increase. The average production link inventory nationwide was 1.04 days, up 0.01 days from the previous day, and the circulation link inventory was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous day [14]. - On the 24th, the average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of October 23, the weekly culling age of old hens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [14]. - In September, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.56% [14]. Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices have fallen to a low level, and downstream inventory replenishment has driven the inventory down, causing egg prices to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term remains unchanged. The culling age of chickens is still high, the supply pressure of eggs has not been significantly released, and the short-term downstream consumption is relatively weak. It is expected that the spot price will lack continuous upward momentum. When the inventory stops falling and starts to rise, the spot price will be weak. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of chicken culling driven by low prices [14]. - Long term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg chicken farming may extend the price bottoming cycle. Wait patiently for the de-capacity process driven by excessive culling in the farming sector [15]. Trading Strategy - Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained. Near-term contracts will continue the basis repair logic. The futures market rose significantly in the last two trading days of this week, but there is no substantial bullish driver in the fundamentals. It was suggested in the morning report on Friday to consider stopping profits on previous short positions. In the situation of strong expectation but weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for trading opportunities when the fundamentals and the market sentiment resonate [15].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a delivery report for the 2510 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil in October 2025 [2][3] - The delivery settlement price of the rebar 2510 contract is 2954 yuan/ton, at a discount to the spot price, mainly due to the continuous contraction of building material demand and weak market expectations [3][5] - The delivery settlement price of the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract is 3534 yuan/ton, at a premium to the spot price, and it's the first significant premium delivery in recent years due to the weakening of the basis on the last trading day [3][24] Group 2: Rebar 2510 Contract Delivery Summary Delivery Price and Basis Repair Path - The rebar 2510 contract is at a discount delivery, with discounts of 226 and 236 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively [5] - In Q3 2025, domestic steel prices rose first and then fell. The supply-demand contradiction accumulated during the continuous release of production, putting pressure on prices [3][5] - The peak-season consumption was still lower than previous years. The basis was strong from August to September, and the large discount structure suppressed the delivery enthusiasm [5] Delivery Volume and Position Change - The total delivery volume of the Rb2510 contract is 76,200 tons, mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Guangdong. The warehouse registered warehouse receipts on the last trading day were 277,000 tons, not all completed for delivery [8] - The delivery parties were relatively scattered, mainly participating in hedging and basis trading [8] Inter - period Strategy Summary - The demand of the 2510 contract was weak, and the delivery settlement price was at the lowest level in recent years [17] - The far - month contracts were at a premium to the near - month contracts. As of October 15, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar steel closed at - 84 yuan/ton [17] - The main driver of the 10 - 1 reverse spread was the weak reality, with insufficient near - month demand and relatively stronger far - month performance supported by policies [17] Group 3: Hot - rolled Coil 2510 Delivery Summary Delivery Price and Basis Repair Path - The hot - rolled coil 2510 contract is at a premium delivery, with premiums of 254 and 274 yuan/ton to Shanghai and Tianjin spot prices respectively [24] - The basis weakened significantly on the last trading day, and the scattered seller seats and poor delivery concentration led to a sharp rise in the settlement price due to virtual position closing [24] Delivery Volume and Position Change - The delivery volume of the HC2510 contract is 66,000 tons, significantly lower than the HC2410 contract and at a medium - low level in recent years [32] - The delivery warehouse receipts were mainly concentrated in Jiangsu. The factory warehouse receipts increased significantly after the change of delivery rules, which facilitated hedging for traders and increased their participation enthusiasm [32] Inter - period Strategy Summary - The average level of the 10 - 1 positive spread of hot - rolled coil was higher than the same period in previous years [38] - As of October 15, the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil expanded to 398 yuan/ton, a new high in recent years, mainly due to the insufficient delivery ability of the seller and the sharp rise of the 2510 contract price caused by the departure of virtual positions [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs increased, with the main contract 2511 rising 2.38% weekly. The supply side sees an increase in the number of pigs for sale and a decrease in the weight of pigs for sale, while the demand side is currently weak but is expected to improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. The current spot price is falling due to increased supply and weak demand, but the near - month contracts are expected to be relatively resistant to decline in the short term due to basis repair. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers are selling more pigs with lower weights, and the government has proposed measures to control production capacity. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered slightly, but high temperatures still suppress the willingness to buy pork. It is expected that demand will improve significantly during the student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. Overall, the increase in the number of pigs for sale and weak current demand lead to a decline in the spot price, but the near - month contracts are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price increased, and the main contract 2511 rose 2.38% weekly [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 380 futures warehouse receipts [12]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price was 14.34 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from last week and down 3.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 31.24 yuan/kg, down 1.48 yuan/kg from last week and 8.2% from last month [27]. - **Pork and Sows Prices**: The national pork market price was 25.21 yuan/kg on July 31, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The pig - to - grain ratio was 6.05 as of July 30, down 0.11 from the previous week and below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late June 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, up 10,000 month - on - month and 0.12% year - on - year, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms increased slightly, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In July, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased [44]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In July, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs was 123.32 kg, down 0.21 kg from last week [48]. Industry Profit and Related Factors - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of August 8, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 134.14 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 17.36 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.27 yuan/head month - on - month. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.15 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.15 yuan/head [53]. - **Pork Import**: From January to June 2025, China imported 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, which was at a historically low level [58]. - **Substitute Product Price**: As of the week of August 8, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.90 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from last week; the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from last week [61]. - **Feed Price and Production**: As of August 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3015.43 yuan/ton, up 37.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2395.59 yuan/ton, down 7.16 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 930.53, down 0.6% from last week; the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. In June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, up 175,600 tons month - on - month [67][70][75]. - **CPI**: As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 32nd week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 26.94%, up 0.11 percentage points from last week and 3.27 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.66%, the same as last week; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.50%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million, down 6.53% from the previous month. In June 2025, the national catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. but does not provide specific analysis [88][90]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price increases in various sectors, particularly in the new energy, building materials, and coal industries, driven by a shift away from excessive competition and a focus on structural adjustments in key industries [3][4]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Trends - Since July, the new energy sector has seen significant price increases, with polysilicon rising by 57%, industrial silicon by 20%, and lithium carbonate by 13% [3]. - In the black metal sector, coking coal has increased by 33.4%, with other commodities also experiencing gains of over 10% [3]. - The chemical sector has seen prices for caustic soda and alumina rise by more than 10%, while other energy, non-ferrous, and agricultural products have shown relatively muted performance [3]. Group 2: Futures vs. Spot Prices - The futures prices in the affected sectors have risen significantly faster than spot prices, leading to a rapid decrease in basis rates, such as polysilicon at -12% and coking coal at -11% [4]. - The future correction of basis rates will depend on the willingness of downstream buyers to restock and whether the arbitrage window opens for buying spot and hedging in futures [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is influenced by overly pessimistic views from the previous quarter, which led to active price reductions to clear inventory [4]. - Core inventory levels for some commodities are not high, indicating that if the downstream demand continues to improve, there could be a scenario where spot prices rise alongside futures, strengthening the basis [4]. Group 4: Downstream Purchasing Behavior - Downstream industries are exhibiting a "buy on the rise, sell on the fall" mentality, which could lead to synchronized price increases in both spot and futures markets if restocking occurs [4]. - The overall sentiment suggests that until inventory levels reach a relatively high point, commodities may continue to experience upward price pressure [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with an Upward Bias in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Medium to Long Term [7] Core Views - Steel: Short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the steel market will maintain a sideways trend. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals provide strong support, and the iron ore price will move up in a sideways manner. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal and coke market will move down in a sideways manner. The supply of coke is tight, and the demand from downstream steel enterprises remains resilient [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: As the temperature rises in July, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term, while the supply remains loose in the medium to long term [7]. Market Analysis Steel - Futures and Spot: Steel futures declined slightly yesterday. The spot price was relatively firm, and the overall basis continued to widen. The spot transaction volume was 8740 tons. In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. The average cost of billet in Tangshan was 2775 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 175 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week's data shows that the output of building materials increased, consumption decreased, and inventory increased; the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for steel still has resilience, and attention should be paid to basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1]. Iron Ore - Futures and Spot: Iron ore futures prices trended slightly upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly replenished their stocks as needed. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1 million tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - delivery spot was 1.52 million tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the molten iron output has declined, it is still at a relatively high level. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption intensity of steel during the off - season and the changes in iron ore inventory [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke trended downwards yesterday. The inventory of imported coal at ports was tight, and traders continued to hold up prices. Attention should be paid to port customs clearance and supply recovery [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, on the one hand, the price of raw coal remains high, and after the price increase is implemented, the profit of coke enterprises will improve, but the production willingness is still relatively conservative, and the supply remains tight; on the other hand, the profit of downstream steel enterprises is good, and the plant inventory is running at a low level, so the demand remains resilient. For coking coal, the market trading atmosphere is relatively active, and the downstream demand is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the overall recovery is limited. Attention should be paid to the coal mine recovery progress and the molten iron output of downstream steel mills during the traditional off - season [5][6]. Thermal Coal - Futures and Spot: In the production areas, some coal mines stopped production due to water accumulation and safety inspections, and mine owners were more willing to raise prices, with some coal varieties rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed stage by stage. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and traders were optimistic about the peak - season market, so the market coal price increased steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term. In the medium to long term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Sideways - Coke: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal - No specific strategy information provided