Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a diversified asset allocation strategy that aims for absolute returns rather than relying on a single asset class or index, utilizing various strategies across multiple asset types to enhance overall returns and reduce volatility [1]. Group 1: Equity Strategies - The equity strategy involves a high allocation to stock index options (150% to 200% position), utilizing a combination of long and short options to manage risk and capture upside potential [2]. - A high-dividend stock rotation strategy is employed with a 10% allocation, focusing on a diversified portfolio of around 100 high-dividend stocks to achieve excess returns over dividend indices, targeting an annualized excess return of 5% to 10% [3]. Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond strategy has been cleared out due to high valuations, with a focus on low-risk, fundamentally sound bonds previously held to enhance returns through rotation [4][5]. Group 3: Commodity Futures - A 20% allocation to commodity futures is based on value investing principles, targeting commodities at historical lows, particularly those below production costs, to minimize risk and enhance long-term returns [6]. Group 4: Arbitrage Strategies - The remaining capital is allocated to various low-risk arbitrage strategies, which contribute significantly to overall returns, with recent performance showing a 9% weekly return and a 46% annual return, exceeding expectations [7].

Risk Warning - The author advises against engaging with Hyper due to its poor depth and lack of official support [1] - Arbitrageurs targeting small profits (around 10%) are cautioned about Hyper's significant risks [1] Exchange-Specific Issues - Hyper's depth is very poor [1] - The official stance is that they do not manage Hyper, indicating a lack of oversight [1]

不重复发了。市场很无聊，但并不是没事可做。我想没有多少人看过这篇文档：https://t.co/cFINutcfuY如果说 DeFi 的入门是 amm 公式，那套利的入门就是永续合约了。产品经理经常自问：如果我是用户，我会怎么做。而 Crypto 交易员经常自问的是：如果我是项目方/攻击者，我会怎么做。而且这些内容都不用上推、关注谁，你自己和 AI 就能聊明白。“懂的越多，亏的越多” 是用来开玩笑自嘲的，不是说真的... ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of "new deposit" schemes in Hong Kong's insurance financing market, which promise high returns but carry significant risks related to interest rate fluctuations and non-guaranteed dividends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - A "new deposit" scheme marketed as a "seven-year doubling" plan offers potential returns of around 1.2 million HKD from an initial investment of 120,000 HKD, leveraging bank loans [1]. - The current low interest rates in Hong Kong, with HIBOR dropping below 0.05% earlier this year, create an environment where borrowing costs are low, making these insurance financing schemes appear attractive [9]. - Insurance agents promote these products as high-yield investments, often claiming annual returns exceeding 10% [4][11]. Group 2: Risks and Concerns - The reliance on non-guaranteed dividends raises concerns about the actual returns, as recent disclosures show lower-than-expected dividend realization rates [1][2]. - Complaints regarding these insurance products have increased significantly, with issues related to sales misrepresentation and inadequate assessments of clients' repayment capabilities [3][15]. - The complexity of these financing schemes means they are only suitable for investors with a strong risk tolerance, as they involve multiple risks including interest rate volatility and liquidity issues [3][13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance financing market has seen a surge in popularity, with some banks experiencing a backlog in loan approvals due to high demand [8]. - The competitive landscape has led to insurance companies raising expected long-term returns to over 7%, further enticing investors despite the underlying risks [11]. - The combination of low borrowing costs and high projected returns has created a perception of increased arbitrage opportunities, although this is accompanied by significant uncertainties [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of "new deposit" schemes in Hong Kong's insurance financing market, which promise high returns but carry significant risks related to interest rate fluctuations and non-guaranteed dividends [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current low interest rate environment has led to the popularity of insurance financing products, marketed as offering annual returns exceeding 10% [2][5][10]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (HIBOR) has been low, dropping below 0.05% in June 2023, which has made borrowing costs attractive for investors [10][11]. - The insurance products often promise high returns due to a lag in adjusting the demonstration rates, creating an illusion of substantial arbitrage opportunities [10][13]. Group 2: Product Structure - Insurance financing involves leveraging bank loans to purchase insurance policies, where the policy's cash value serves as collateral [6][9]. - Investors typically pay a small percentage (10-20%) as a down payment, with the remainder financed through bank loans [6][9]. - The structure involves three main parties: the policyholder, the bank, and the insurance company, with the potential for profit derived from the difference between the policy's returns and the loan interest [6][9]. Group 3: Risks and Complaints - There are multiple risks associated with these products, including interest rate risk, dividend realization uncertainty, and liquidity issues [3][4][14]. - Complaints regarding insurance financing have increased significantly, with issues related to sales misrepresentation and inadequate assessments of clients' repayment capabilities [4][16]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued warnings about the need for compliance in sales practices to prevent misleading promotions [4][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's investment journey over the past decade, highlighting the challenges and learning experiences faced in the stock and fund markets, as well as the evolution of investment strategies. Group 1: Investment Experience - The author began investing in funds in 2012, with initial purchases made through banks due to concerns about online transactions [1][2]. - Various funds were purchased over the years, including popular ones like Huaxia Fuxing and Jiashi Service Value, contributing to significant returns [2]. - The author experienced both gains and losses, with notable early investments in stocks like Gree Electric and Wuliangye, which yielded substantial profits [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Performance - The author emphasizes the importance of adapting investment strategies over time, particularly after joining the Jisilu community, which provided valuable insights and improved annual returns [10][11]. - A detailed performance summary shows a significant increase in average annual returns post-2019, with a peak of 48% in 2019 and consistent growth in subsequent years [11]. - The author acknowledges the challenges of value investing, noting that while theoretically sound, it is difficult to implement effectively for average investors [9]. Group 3: Market Insights - The article discusses the volatility of the stock market, with the author recalling experiences during major market downturns and the psychological impact on investment decisions [3][5]. - The author reflects on the pitfalls of relying solely on value investing, citing specific instances of losses in companies like Huaxia Happiness and Erkang Pharmaceutical due to market misjudgments [9][12]. - The narrative illustrates the evolving nature of investment strategies, highlighting the need for continuous learning and adaptation in response to market changes [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trend of "new deposit" schemes in Hong Kong's insurance financing market, which promise high returns but carry significant risks, particularly due to interest rate fluctuations and reliance on non-guaranteed dividends [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - A new type of insurance financing scheme, marketed as "new deposits" or "high-level financial products," is gaining popularity, claiming annual returns exceeding 10% [8]. - These schemes involve taking out bank loans to purchase insurance policies, with the policy's cash value used as collateral [8][11]. - The current low interest rates in Hong Kong have created an environment where these financing schemes appear attractive, despite underlying risks [13][14]. Group 2: Financial Mechanics - The financing process typically requires the investor to pay 10% to 20% of the premium upfront, with the remainder financed through a bank loan [8]. - The expected returns are based on the difference between the insurance policy's promised returns and the bank's loan interest rate, which can create an "arbitrage" opportunity [8][11]. - For example, a policy with a total premium of $1 million may require an upfront payment of $181,000, with a loan covering the rest, leading to potential high annualized returns if conditions are favorable [11] . Group 3: Risks and Complaints - The article emphasizes multiple risks associated with these financing schemes, including interest rate risk, dividend realization uncertainty, and liquidity issues [4][19][20]. - Complaints related to these products have surged, with issues such as misrepresentation by sales agents and inadequate assessments of clients' financial capabilities being reported [6][21][22]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has issued warnings regarding the compliance of banks and insurance companies in promoting these products, highlighting the need for proper risk disclosures [6][22].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

#Crypto囤 BTC 跑赢所有是部分真相，熬鹰的这个版本也是真相。推荐阅读。相对来说，我更同意熬鹰的版本。因为他离我的入场时间轴更近，时间点决定不同的真相。下面是 21 年进场、DeFi + 套利党（包括我自己）的版本真相：1. 在 21 年如果你 fomo 进场，梭哈全部身家买入 btc，4 万 - 12 万。你的身家翻了 3 倍，恭喜你。2. 上半年算了下，整体仓位大约 4 年 100 倍。单个策略角度统计无回撤；没有被 rug 过；赌博仓位和次数都很少，可以忽略；3. 利润不止套利直接相关，小部分还来自：前期的产品设计外包、技术外包，后来也有策略落地、代练等一些外快收入。4. 我的收益水平，在我平时交流的群体里，说实话是 中游。风险控制水平，上游。综合能力，中上游。行业里大部分技术方向，我都懂一点。5. 如果我能早一年入圈，我有完全的把握，收益再 x3～x10。因为我错过了 Luna，当时还在打工，太菜太嫩了。所有套利党都知道 Luna 意味着什么，那是 10 年难遇 —— 改变命运的机会。大部分我认识的套利人，都从 Luna 赚到了 10M 人民币以上。6. 我们这一批 20、21 年 DeFi ...

有一说一，OKX 现在这个交易账户的 USDT 余额以及未实现盈亏都可以拿来理财的功能实在是太方便了这样再也不用怕 1x 杠杆合约当现货开浪费资金费了不过资金费套利业务现在 CEX 都开始下场做的话，圈内其他做 delta neutral 的项目和套利策略的利润空间应该会进一步下降吧Star (@star_okx):OKX Auto Earn 提供了更方便、灵活、及时的收益功能。开通Auto Earn 以后， 交易账户的USDT 余额以及USDT未实现盈亏都可以收到对应的APY. ETH和SOL的Auto Staking 也很快会上线，交易和staking 两不误。 ...