Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve economic goals for the year [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the livelihood orientation of policies [2][3] - There is a need to boost consumer confidence and continue implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, as the recovery of the consumption market still requires solid foundations [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while also increasing commodity consumption [3][4] - Service consumption is seen as a key driver for improving livelihoods and promoting consumption industry upgrades, which will help achieve a rapid growth in overall consumption [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting called for specific arrangements to deepen the construction of a unified national market, optimizing market competition order and regulating chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] - There is a focus on controlling new production capacity and optimizing existing capacity in industries facing severe competition, as well as regulating local government investment behaviors [5] - Strengthening the role of price regulation and quality standards is crucial for allowing high-quality products to thrive in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, focusing on "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts" [1][6][7] - The overall economic outlook is positive, with key economic indicators performing well and a strong emphasis on maintaining economic recovery momentum [1][9][10] Economic Policy - The meeting highlights the need for macroeconomic policies to be "continuous, stable, flexible, and predictable," aiming for sustained growth and maximizing policy effects [2][10][11] - Emphasis is placed on implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability [11][12] Consumption and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of expanding service consumption and stimulating effective investment, particularly in the context of weak fixed asset investment growth [3][12] - The "old-for-new" policy has already released some elasticity in durable goods consumption, and there is a call to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [3][12] Supply-Side Policies - The meeting calls for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, while also addressing issues of local government debt and hidden debts [4][13] - Policies will focus on promoting high-quality development and addressing overcapacity in key industries [4][12] Capital Market - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery [5][14] - There is a focus on ensuring that the capital market functions effectively and supports long-term investment [5][14] Transition from 14th to 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlines the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on urban renewal and managing hidden debts [5][14] - The importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving long-term economic goals is highlighted [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Defensive wait-and-see for stock indices, take profit for treasury bonds [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Temporarily wait-and-see for rebar, oscillate for iron ore and coking coal and coke [1][6] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Range trading or wait-and-see for copper, wait-and-see for aluminum, suggest wait-and-see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][11] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Oscillate for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; wide-range oscillation for polyolefins; short lightly for soda ash [1][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate and adjust for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillate strongly for apples and jujubes [1][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide-range oscillation for corn; oscillate strongly for soybean meal and oils [1][38] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures varieties based on current market conditions, including macro events, supply and demand fundamentals, and policy expectations [1][6] - It emphasizes the importance of paying attention to key events such as the Sino-US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as the impact of these events on the market [6][11] - For each variety, it analyzes the supply and demand situation, cost factors, and market sentiment to predict the future price trend and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Due to the Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Politburo meeting, combined with the high margin trading and the decline in fund holding ratio, the stock indices may oscillate, especially with potential small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid-year reports in late August [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Monday and the central bank's capital injection improved market sentiment, the market is still in the paradigm of "trading bonds based on commodities" and "trading bonds based on stocks." Attention should be paid to whether the important meeting will bring incremental demand-side policies. If demand improves, the bond market may not be overly optimistic [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The market is trading on the expectation of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively balanced. In the short term, it is expected to enter an oscillating pattern, and investors can wait and see or conduct short-term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price oscillated strongly. Affected by the macro sentiment, the impact on iron ore is relatively small. The supply is expected to increase in the long term, but the current high profit of steel products and the expectation of the meeting support the price. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal is tight locally, and the import is improving. The demand for coke is strong, and the supply and demand structure is tight. The price of coking coal is expected to oscillate, and the price of coke may continue to rise [9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the US copper import tariff policy and the change in domestic demand, the copper price is expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, but the supply of imported ore may increase in the third quarter. The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for aluminum and short on rallies for alumina [12][13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in excess in the medium and long term, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton [14][15] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin is stable, and the consumption of the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 245,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Sino-US trade talks and the Fed's interest rate decision, the market's risk aversion sentiment has decreased, but there are still concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to conduct range trading carefully, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 757 - 805 and the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8,700 - 9,500 [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 5,150 - 5,350 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The spot price is stable and weak, and the near-month contract is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 contract can focus on the range of 2,500 - 2,700 [24] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. The macro environment is favorable, and the price is expected to oscillate, with the focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,600 [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, providing cost support. The downstream demand is general, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the focus on the pressure level of 15,000 [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises increases, and the industrial demand is stable. The inventory pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong, with the support level of 1,700 - 1,730 and the pressure level of 1,820 - 1,850 [31] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory decreases, and the price may face a certain correction [32][33] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the macro sentiment and cost factors, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The L2509 contract can focus on the range of 7,200 - 7,500, and the PP2509 contract can focus on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 [34] - **Soda Ash**: After the market sentiment cools down, the futures price of soda ash has fallen back. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the price is overestimated. It is recommended to short lightly [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase, and the ending inventory will also increase. The Xinjiang cotton production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is light. The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust [36] - **Apples**: The spot market is stable, the inventory of old-season apples is low, and the early-maturing apples are in stable demand. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the high range [36] - **Jujubes**: The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the growth period, and the second and third crops of flowers have a good fruit set. The supply in the sales area is low, and the price of high-quality products is strong. It is expected that the spot price will be stable and strong in the short term [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the resistance from the breeding side and the entry of secondary fattening limit the decline. In the medium and long term, the supply will gradually increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near-month contracts, and consider the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short-term supply pressure is weakened by the decline in egg production rate, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the large supply in the medium and long term restricts the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and wait to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The short-term supply and demand game intensifies, and the spot price has limited upward and downward space. The medium and long-term supply and demand are tightened, but the supply from substitutes limits the increase. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally in the short term, with the range of 2,250 - 2,350, and consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the good weather in the US soybean producing areas and the abundant supply in China suppress the price. In the long term, there is a potential supply gap, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to cautiously go long on the M2509 contract and go long on dips for the M2511 and M2601 contracts [44][45] - **Oils**: The short-term market sentiment is bearish, but the supply and demand of Indonesian palm oil are balanced, and the demand from China and India still exists. The short-term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil can focus on the ranges of 8,000 - 8,200, 8,900 - 9,200, and 9,300 - 9,600 respectively [45][51]

Group 1 - Employment is a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods and is crucial for economic and social development, as well as national stability [1] - High-quality employment is positioned as a strategic goal in economic development, emphasizing the need for a mechanism that promotes quality employment alongside economic growth [2][4] - The interdependence between high-quality economic development and high-quality employment is highlighted, with economic growth creating job opportunities and quality employment enhancing economic sustainability [2][5] Group 2 - The role of employment in economic growth varies across different time periods, necessitating distinct policy focuses for short-term and long-term strategies [3] - As China's economy matures, the importance of addressing short-term demand fluctuations to maintain employment balance has increased [3][6] - Long-term economic growth relies on the effective reallocation of labor and the improvement of labor productivity, which has been historically significant in China's development [4][5] Group 3 - The transition to a higher economic development stage requires new methods to enhance productivity, moving beyond traditional labor reallocation to focus on new productive forces [5][6] - The potential for expanding employment remains significant, with a focus on optimizing labor resource allocation and enhancing non-agricultural employment rates [6][12] - The relationship between new productive forces and employment must be carefully managed to ensure that technological advancements do not hinder job creation [10][11] Group 4 - The development of new productive forces is essential for high-quality employment, with a focus on leveraging existing human resources and enhancing labor quality [9][12] - The integration of technology and labor is crucial, as advancements can lead to both job creation and the need for higher-skilled labor [10][15] - A robust employment policy framework is necessary to adapt to changing economic conditions and ensure effective labor market management [14][15]

Macro Economic Overview - The report highlights that the upcoming US tariff policy is expected to have a substantial impact on the global economy, with a recommended asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds > currencies [1][2] - The report notes a rise in risk appetite for RMB assets, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.69% and coking coal futures surging by 32.60% [1][11] Economic Data and Performance - In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in the industrial sector [4][18] - The report mentions that the fiscal revenue for the first half of the year reached 11.56 trillion yuan, with tax revenue showing a continuous increase for three months [18] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies for equities, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [3][12] - For commodities, the report advises maintaining a standard allocation while monitoring the progress of fiscal incremental policies [3][12] Market Trends - The report indicates that the A-share market saw a broad increase, with the leading index being the Shanghai 380, which rose by 3.48% [35] - The report also notes that the automotive sector is expected to maintain good growth momentum, supported by policies such as "trade-in" incentives [31][37] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced an upward adjustment in yields, with the ten-year government bond yield rising by 7 basis points to 1.73% [41][43] - The report highlights that the central bank is likely to maintain a stable interest rate environment, with potential room for further monetary easing in the second half of the year [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The current crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase, with the center of fluctuation moving down. The support comes from the demand side, but the incremental demand space is limited due to the seasonal decline. The market's operating logic remains unchanged, still in the adjustment stage after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. The market is supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and multiple countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [4]. - The crude oil market lacks clear guidance from news recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations from July 27th to 30th, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the Fed's interest - rate meeting at 3:00 am on July 31st. Also, the US tariff deadline is on August 1st, and the OPEC + 8 - country meeting will be held on August 3rd. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC +'s production increase in September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - The Trump administration approved Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. The details of the agreement are unclear, and the move has received different reactions. Chevron will comply with relevant laws and regulations [4]. - South Korea and Japan plan to strengthen cooperation on oil supply security due to the Israel - Iran conflict, discussing issues such as oil reserve policies [4]. - Syria issued a tender for 500,000 barrels of heavy crude oil on July 24th. The US has gradually lifted sanctions on Syria, but it's unclear about the source of this oil sale, whether it marks Syria's return to the international oil market, and potential buyers [6]. - There are many differences between the US and Japan on the details of the tariff agreement. The 15% "reciprocal" tariff may take effect on August 1st, and the 550 - billion - dollar investment commitment from Japan to the US has many uncertainties [6]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending July 18th in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected - 1.565 million barrels, previous value - 3.859 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels (previous value - 300,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous value + 213,000 barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels (expected - 908,000 barrels, previous value + 3.399 million barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels (expected - 1.135 million barrels, previous value + 4.173 million barrels) [7]. - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 95.5% (expected 93.4%, previous value 93.9%) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The IMF emphasizes the need for policymakers to focus on addressing trade tensions and implementing macroeconomic policies to tackle potential domestic imbalances in the face of ongoing downside risks and high uncertainty [1] Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Policymakers should restore fiscal space and ensure that debt remains at sustainable levels to maintain economic stability [1] - Monetary policy must be carefully adjusted according to each country's specific circumstances, with clear and consistent communication [1] - The independence of central banks must be protected to ensure effective monetary policy [1] Group 2: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are crucial for enhancing productivity, supporting job creation, and leveraging new technologies to promote medium-term growth [1] - These reforms are also essential for offsetting demographic changes [1]

Economic Overview - Beijing's GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2023, reaching 25,029.2 billion yuan [2][3] - The contribution rate of the information transmission, software, and IT services, financial, and industrial sectors to economic growth was 87.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales area increased by 5.4%, with pure commodity residential sales up by 33.8% [1][5] - The area of second-hand residential transactions saw a 22% increase, while transaction volume rose by 18.6% [1][5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 7.5%, and the total construction area fell by 8.0% [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 14.1%, with equipment purchase investment surging by 99.0%, accounting for 28.2% of total fixed asset investment [2][3] - High-tech industry investment remained active, increasing by 72.9%, particularly in information services, automotive manufacturing, and electronics [3][4] Consumer Market - Total market consumption in Beijing grew by 0.9%, while consumer prices fell by 0.3% [3][4] - Service consumption accounted for nearly 60% of total household spending, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption [4] Employment and Income - The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% [1][2] - Per capita disposable income reached 45,144 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a real increase of 5.1% after adjusting for price factors [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies in China are expected to further support economic growth in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on boosting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and enhancing liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with major indicators performing better than expected, largely due to proactive macroeconomic policy support [1]. - Fiscal policies have played a significant role in driving economic performance, with effective consumer promotion measures noted by experts [1]. Group 2: Consumption and Export Dynamics - The improvement in consumption is attributed not only to subsidies but also to the emergence of new consumer habits [2]. - Despite a decline in the export growth rate of labor-intensive goods, manufacturing exports, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, have helped maintain a high overall export growth rate [2]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - Experts anticipate continued macroeconomic policy support to foster economic growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand [2]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to evolve, with an emphasis on income enhancement and alleviating supply-side constraints to create new consumption scenarios [2]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Considerations - There is potential for further adjustments in monetary policy, including liquidity provision and benchmark interest rates [3]. - Regulatory policies may also see adjustments, particularly concerning interbank liabilities and certificates of deposit [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on July 17, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, along with their respective resistance and support levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - side oscillation on July 17. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4000 and 4020 points and support at 3952 and 3940 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2750 and 2763 points and support at 2716 and 2703 points; IC2509 has resistance at 5965 and 6000 points and support at 5860 and 5829 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6360 and 6400 points and support at 6260 and 6216 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. T2509 has resistance at 108.92 and 109.00 yuan and support at 108.74 and 108.55 yuan; TL2509 has resistance at 121.0 and 121.2 yuan and support at 120.6 and 120.4 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold AU2510 and silver AG2510 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. AU2510 will accumulate strength to attack resistance at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram with support at 773.8 and 771.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 has resistance at 9207 and 9267 yuan/kg and support at 9088 and 9061 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper CU2508, aluminum AL2509, and zinc ZN2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate. CU2508 has support at 77700 and 77500 yuan/ton and resistance at 78100 and 78400 yuan/ton; AL2509 has support at 20300 and 20230 yuan/ton and resistance at 20490 and 20600 yuan/ton; ZN2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, attacking resistance at 22100 and 22190 yuan/ton with support at 21950 and 21930 yuan/ton. Alumina AO2509 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 3046 and 3028 yuan/ton and resistance at 3138 and 3158 yuan/ton. Nickel NI2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 119100 and 118700 yuan/ton and resistance at 119900 and 120200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon SI2509, polysilicon PS2508, and lithium carbonate LC2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. SI2509 will attack resistance at 8790 and 8880 yuan/ton with support at 8600 and 8520 yuan/ton; PS2508 will attack resistance at 43250 and 44600 yuan/ton with support at 42360 and 41760 yuan/ton; LC2509 will attack resistance at 67700 and 68400 yuan/ton with support at 65500 and 65000 yuan/ton. Crude oil SC2508 is likely to be in a weak - side oscillation, with support at 508 and 505 yuan/barrel and resistance at 523 and 528 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil FU2509 and PTA TA509 are likely to be in a weak - side oscillation. FU2509 will test support at 2824 and 2800 yuan/ton with resistance at 2883 and 2911 yuan/ton; TA509 will test support at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton with resistance at 4728 and 4754 yuan/ton [3][4][6]. - **Agricultural and Building Material Futures**: Rebar RB2510, hot - rolled coil HC2510, iron ore I2509, coking coal JM2509, glass FG509, soda ash SA509, caustic soda SH509, PVC V2509, and soybean meal M2509 are likely to be in a strong - side oscillation. For example, RB2510 will attack resistance at 3138 and 3149 yuan/ton with support at 3104 and 3094 yuan/ton; HC2510 will attack resistance at 3299 and 3320 yuan/ton with support at 3253 and 3247 yuan/ton. Natural rubber RU2509 is likely to be in a strong - side oscillation, with resistance at 14570 and 14710 yuan/ton and support at 14450 and 14320 yuan/ton [4][6][7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro News**: The State Council held a meeting to study policies for strengthening the domestic cycle, heard reports on the new energy vehicle industry and budget audit rectification, and passed a draft amendment to a regulation on foreigners' entry and exit. The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The Third China International Supply - Chain Promotion Expo opened, and the Ministry of Commerce proposed high - level opening - up and implemented a policy on tax credit for foreign investors' reinvestment. The Ministry of Public Security aimed to combat intellectual property crimes, and the State Administration for Market Regulation piloted the decentralization of administrative approval for national secondary standard substances. China and Australia signed a memorandum on the implementation and review of the free - trade agreement [8][9][10]. - **International Macro News**: Trump made statements about the Fed chair, tariff policies, and trade agreements. The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the core PPI also showed a small increase. Trump planned to issue an executive order to promote pension investment in the private market. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity with high uncertainty. The US launched a 301 investigation against Brazil, and Mexico opposed US tomato tariffs. The UK June CPI increased, raising concerns about the central bank's interest - rate policy [11][12][13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - **International Futures Market**: On July 16, international precious - metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.52% to 3354.20 dollars/ounce and COMEX silver up 0.04% to 38.13 dollars/ounce. International oil prices oscillated narrowly, with US crude up 0.18% to 66.64 dollars/barrel and Brent down 0.03% to 68.69 dollars/barrel. London base - metal futures mostly fell, showing an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [13]. - **Exchange - Rate Information**: On July 16, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 42 points at 7.1776, and the offshore RMB closed up 44 points at 7.1802. The US dollar index fell 0.35% to 98.29, and non - US currencies mostly rose [14][15].