Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/25 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Beijing adjusts housing purchase restrictions. Futures Prices: On Dec 24, ...

由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026： 预测与战略 · 年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定 力"。 12月18日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)驻华首席代表Marshall Mills在致辞中表示，全球不确定性已急剧攀 升，且持续走高。这种不确定性一定会保留很长的时间，所以一定要做好应对这些不确定性的准备。他预 计今年和明年两年全球增长仅会小幅放缓。 我非常同意刚才发言嘉宾的一些观点，我的演讲可能不像其他几位演讲那样充满活力，我想分享一下 自己的见解。过去几十年我们看到了令人难以置信的进展，虽然也有没有实现的愿望，考虑到这些进展， 我们面临的挑战看起来是有一些反知觉的，但如今普通人的生活远好于40年或者80年以前。我们研究这些 数据的时候发现潜在的一些深层暗流和一些沮丧，尤其在年轻一代人当中，为了更好的理解这一点。我们 可以看一些例子，以美国为例，年轻人长大以后，收入超过父母的概率持续下降，我的父亲这个月90岁 了，对于我父亲那一代，30岁的时候赚的钱超过他的父母那一代的概率超过90%，而到我这一代，我 ...

围绕中央经济工作会议首次提出的"把促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，朱 光耀认为推动物价合理温和回升，是当前货币政策的重要任务，这一政策指引极具战略意义。他表示， 当前CPI基本维持在稍高于0的水平，PPI已连续38个月处于负值，这一态势对宏观经济运行、企业利润 及财政增值税收入均产生了不利影响。 中央经济工作会议提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，如何理解"积极有为"？如何看待更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策这套"组合拳"？财政部原副部长朱光耀在做客中国经济网《深谈》时进 行了深入解读。 面对当前经济发展面临的挑战，朱光耀在访谈中表示，中国拥有庞大的经济存量，我们既要正视挑战， 更要看到"十四五"期间取得的巨大成绩，这些都是未来发展的强大物质基础。在宏观经济政策层面，此 次未提及超常规政策，意味着通过更加积极有为的宏观经济政策组合，包括更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，即可有效应对当前挑战。 谈及财政政策，朱光耀指出，2025年财政赤字率4%左右、地方专项债券发行4.4万亿元的规模，还有1.3 万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元的特别国债，这构成了政策有效落地的现实基 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" for the upcoming year, focusing on building a strong domestic market [1] - There is a growing discussion about the "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies prioritize cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for boosting consumption include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work conference proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on demand-side policies and structural supply-side improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The average economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be around 4.5%, with 2026 GDP growth expected at 4.8% [6] - A modern industrial system is highlighted as a key focus for cross-cyclical policies, emphasizing the transformation of traditional industries and the development of strategic emerging industries [6]

当前经济形势怎么看?"十五五" 开局之年,重点任务如何推进?问答中 的一些重点、亮点如下↓↓↓↓ 起来学习! 一问:经济形势怎么看? 中央经济工作会议指出, 2025 年是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压 前行、向新向优发展,展现强大韧旺 和活力。 预计全年经济增长5%左右、继 续位居世界主要经济体前列,经济 总量有望达到140万亿元左右。 我们要直面问题、正视挑战, 看到这些大多是发展中的、转型中 的问题,绕不开、躲不过,经过努 力是可以解决的。 ● 新华社权威速览 中央财办十问十答 新华社16日播发了八千多字的长篇 文章《中央财办有关负责同志详解2025 年中央经济工作会议精神》。十问十 答,详细解读中央经济工作会议传递出 的重要信号,干货满满,信息量很大。 I 活跃的要素流动和创新为发展 持续注入新动能,人流、物流、信 息流、资金流保持较快增长态势, 投资和消费增速明年有望恢复,产 业转型升级加快,科技和产业创新 进入成果集中爆发阶段,我国经济 发展前景是十分光明的。 三间:宏观政策如何发力? 根据中央经济工作会议部署,明 年我国继续实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策。在政策取向上,坚持稳中求 进、提质增效。 明 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View After the disturbance of macro - events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With the shipment stabilizing and rising, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of the futures contract and the futures discount under the positive basis provide some support for the futures price. Therefore, the recent iron ore price will generally fluctuate within a range with relatively small volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly higher during the day, closing at 768 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was nearly 230,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 9,000 lots to 489,000 lots, with 8.2 billion yuan of settled funds. The short - term price maintains a slightly stronger range - bound trend [1]. - **Spot Price**: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose by 1 to 784 yuan, and Super Special powder rose by 1 to 673 yuan. The main swap contract was at 102.55 (+1.02) US dollars/ton. Spot prices rose slightly [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 817.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 49.2 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract showed a back structure + positive basis, which may further limit the downside space of futures [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments growing, and Brazil's shipment growth rate being relatively large. The shipments of mines in non - mainstream countries weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the possible end - of - year shipment rush by mines. The arrivals this period increased significantly month - on - month, and the rhythm of ore arrivals still fluctuated greatly [2]. - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental and annual overhauls have been carried out, molten iron production continued to decline sharply, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened month - on - month, the daily consumption and inventory of sinter powder both declined, molten iron production is expected to continue to weaken, and the release of restocking demand is still slow [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, with more arrivals during the week and intensified port congestion. Steel mill inventory decreased instead of increasing month - on - month. With the decline of molten iron production, daily consumption weakened month - on - month, the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased, and steel mills' willingness to restock was weak. Overall, the fundamentals remain loose [2]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - **US**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, and the tone was more dovish than the market - expected "hawkish rate cut". It not only announced a short - term bond purchase plan, but Fed Chairman Powell also sent dovish signals. Although the non - farm payrolls in November rebounded slightly, the unemployment rate reached a four - year high and entered the warning zone, indicating that the US job market continued to cool down [3]. - **China**: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", and continued to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The primary task for next year is to expand domestic demand, focusing on increasing urban and rural residents' income and releasing the potential of service consumption, and promoting the transformation of old and new driving forces through innovation. The economic data in November showed that industrial production still had resilience, but the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales dropped to 1.3%, indicating weak domestic demand and still relying on policy support [3].

中国经济网北京12月16日讯（记者 张翀） 中央经济工作会议提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"，如何理解"积极有为"？如何看待更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策这套"组合拳"？财政 部原副部长朱光耀在做客中国经济网《深谈》时进行了深入解读。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 面对当前经济发展面临的挑战，朱光耀在访谈中表示，中国拥有庞大的经济存量，我们既要正视挑 战，更要看到"十四五"期间取得的巨大成绩，这些都是未来发展的强大物质基础。在宏观经济政策层 面，此次未提及超常规政策，意味着通过更加积极有为的宏观经济政策组合，包括更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策，即可有效应对当前挑战。 谈及财政政策，朱光耀指出，2025年财政赤字率4%左右、地方专项债券发行4.4万亿的规模，还有 1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000医院的特别国债，这构成了政策有效落地的现实基础。未来将通过更 积极的财政支持，持续推动经济高质量发展。而适度宽松的货币政策核心目标之一是解决物价问题，重 点推动物价向2%左右的合理区间靠拢。 围绕中央经济工作会议首次提出的"把促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量"，朱光耀认为推动物 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/16 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 风险提示：宏观经济波动、地缘政治变化、政策趋向扭转。 Related Reports 近期报告 摘要 Abstract Macro News: PBOC, MOF, SASAC and other ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 92,400.00 | -1680.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,646.00 | +131.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -90.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 165,808.00 | -22841.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -32,229.00 | +3407.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 165,900.00 | +50.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 89,389.00 | +484.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 66,000.00 | -650.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 42,226.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 92,265.00 | -1330.00↓ ...

镍作为空配品种延续下行 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 期权：卖出阻力位虚值看涨期权。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美联储鹰派降息如期落地，中央经济工作会议也已结束，更积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策等表述，并未给市场带来强刺激，市场反应平平。 产业方面：11月国内产量锐减1万吨，供需基本匹配，LME库存也因此未出现增长。12月产量略有回升， 需求端进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也环比走弱。库存预计小幅增长。供 需双弱格局缺乏向上驱动。商务部、海关总署公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，对不锈钢和镍利 空。 期货层面：沪镍11.8万附近阻力较强，资金减仓后上周四返回，价格再度下行，若市场整体风险偏好下降， 可能增仓下破前低。 不锈钢交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 单边：测试前低。 交易逻辑及策略 | 单边：低位震荡。 | | --- | 套利：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUT ...