Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined. Based on the macro - economic data for August, credit data was weak, the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed, and inflation data was weak. Expectations for stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter are rising. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The shift to a loose external monetary environment reduces constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and there are still expectations for an overall interest - rate cut in the fourth quarter, but the possibility of an immediate cut is low. After the continuous rebound from the previous bottom, the implied interest - rate cut expectation is already reflected, so the short - term rebound space is limited. In general, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On September 18, the People's Bank of China conducted 487 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with a 7 - day term at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous time. According to previous announcements, 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 195 billion yuan through reverse repurchases [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report presents the market trends of various black - series commodities on September 18, 2025, including expected price movements and fundamental data [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 (neutral). The futures price of 12601 contract is 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. Imported and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of certain ores. The basis and spreads also showed some fluctuations [2][4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). For the RB2601 rebar contract, the closing price is 3,168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%); for the HC2601 hot - rolled coil contract, the closing price is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%). Spot prices in various regions generally declined slightly. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends, and steel import and export data also changed [2][6][7]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both are expected to have a strong - biased fluctuation due to the boost of macro - sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 (strong - biased). Futures prices of different contracts increased, while some spot prices decreased. Price differences such as the basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [2][11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of JM2601 coking coal and J2601 coke contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of coking coal increased in some regions, while coke prices decreased in some regions. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [2][14][15]. Logs - Expected to have repeated fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral). Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase, while most spot prices remained stable. Trading volume and open interest of different contracts also changed [2][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index still has long - term upward potential, but poor economic data exerts short - term pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF主力合约（2509）price is 4516.8, down 11.2; IH主力合约（2509）is 2950.6, down 10.6; IC主力合约（2509）is 7165.2, up 39.4; IM主力合约（2509）is 7462.0, up 75.6 [2] - IF次主力合约（2512）price is 4489.2, down 7.2; IH次主力合约（2512）is 2951.6, down 10.8; IC次主力合约（2512）is 6996.8, up 45.4; IM次主力合约（2512）is 7242.4, up 81.0 [2] 3.2 Futures Price Spreads - IF - IH当月合约价差is 1566.2, up 0.8; IC - IF当月合约价差is 2648.4, up 62.0; IM - IC当月合约价差is 296.8, up 42.4; IC - IH当月合约价差is 4214.6, up 62.8; IM - IF当月合约价差is 2945.2, up 104.4; IM - IH当月合约价差is 4511.4, up 105.2 [2] - IF当季 - 当月is - 27.6, up 3.2; IF下季 - 当月is - 50.8, up 6.8; IH当季 - 当月is 1.0, up 0.8; IH下季 - 当月is 4.4, up 2.8; IC当季 - 当月is - 168.4, up 6.4; IC下季 - 当月is - 333.2, up 0.8; IM当季 - 当月is - 219.6, up 5.8; IM下季 - 当月is - 428, up 5.8 [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions - IF前20名净持仓is - 28,193.00, down 426.0; IH前20名净持仓is - 17,632.00, down 264.0; IC前20名净持仓is - 27,595.00, up 566.0; IM前20名净持仓is - 45,328.00, down 2252.0 [2] 3.4 Spot Prices and Basis - 沪深300price is 4523.34, down 9.7; IF主力合约基差is - 6.5, down 1.3; 上证50price is 2,947.8, down 14.8; IH主力合约基差is 2.8, up 3.0; 中证500price is 7,191.0, up 53.6; IC主力合约基差is - 25.8, down 2.6; 中证1000price is 7,483.6, up 68.1; IM主力合约基差is - 21.6, up 25.3 [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）is 23,670.69, up 638.89; 两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）is 23,699.99, up 184.29; 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）is 2873.06, down 239.77; 逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元）is - 2470.0, up 2870.0; 主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元）is - 646.67, down 449.20; 上涨股票比例（日，%）is 66.84, up 31.56; Shibor（日，%）is 1.437, up 0.029; IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2509）is 45.60, down 8.00; IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）is 17.78, up 1.28; IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2509）is 27.00, up 1.00; IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）is 17.78, up 1.20; 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）is 19.75, down 0.07; 成交量PCR（%）is 62.89, up 7.92; 持仓量PCR（%）is 80.25, down 2.60 [2] 3.6 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - 全部A股is 6.70, up 2.10; 技术面is 6.70, up 3.20; 资金面is 6.60, up 0.90 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August, the year - on - year actual growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, expected to be 5.7%, and the previous value was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.37% [2] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, expected to be 3.8%, and the previous value was 3.7%. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323906 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [2] - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in August decreased by 0.20% [2] - From January to August, China's real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 55015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%, among which the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.0%; the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 64318 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [2] - In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [2] - A - share major indexes closed generally higher. The three major indexes opened higher in the morning and showed wide - range fluctuations. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.68%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly. More than 3600 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive, computer, and machinery equipment sectors leading the gains, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and banking sectors leading the losses [2] - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting on September 16 - 17, Eastern Time. Affected by the weakening labor market, the market has fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September, and the external environmental constraints faced by A - shares are loosening [2] - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, in August, the growth rates of domestic social retail, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size all declined significantly compared with the previous values and were weaker than market expectations. The real estate market also showed an accelerating weakening trend. In terms of financial data, at the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly, reaching the lowest value since June 2021, which may reflect the continuous improvement of residents' consumption willingness. In the trade sector, China and the US will hold talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain, from September 14 to 17 [2] 3.8 Key Data to Focus On - September 16, 20:30: US import and export price indexes, retail sales, and core retail sales for August [3] - September 18, 2:00: Fed interest - rate decision [3] - September 18, 19:00: Bank of England interest - rate decision [3] - September 19, 10:47: Bank of Japan interest - rate decision [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The necessity of policy support for the economy has increased as the economic data from January to August shows varying degrees of weakness in industrial production, investment, and consumption [6] - With a dense schedule of domestic and foreign macro - events this week, investors should control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust for long - positions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.41 with a 4.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a 2.57bp increase, GC001 at 1.36 with a 0.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.55, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.61 with a 0.45bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.80 with a 1.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on Monday [4] Stock Index Market Data - The CSI 300 rose 0.24% to 4533.1, the SSE 50 fell 0.2% to 2962.6, the CSI 500 fell 0.15% to 7137.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.1% to 7415.6 [5] - The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 2.2774 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with game, agriculture, fishery, automobile, power equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, and precious metals, jewelry, small metals, electronic chemicals, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5] Stock Index Futures Data - IF contracts: The current - month contract closed at 4528 with a 0.1% increase, the trading volume was 137,764 with a 7.3% decrease, and the open interest was 267,459 with a 4.0% decrease [5] - IH contracts: The current - month contract closed at 2962 with a 0.2% decrease, the trading volume was 25,348 with a 15.2% decrease, and the open interest was 98,524 with a 1.5% decrease [5] - IC contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7114 with a 0.4% decrease, the trading volume was 137,356 with a 21.9% decrease, and the open interest was 249,632 with a 6.8% decrease [5] - IM contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7369 with a 0.3% decrease, the trading volume was 194,389 with a 19.3% decrease, and the open interest was 356,703 with a 4.2% decrease [5] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Data - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.58%, 3.34%, 3.06%, and 2.72% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 0.66%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, and - 0.09% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 29.61%, 13.93%, 10.66%, and 9.82% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 57.80%, 17.62%, 14.11%, and 12.72% respectively [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the SHFE tin 2510 contract experienced a tug - of - war between bulls and bears in a complex market environment, with significant price fluctuations. Positive macro data spurred active capital inflows, driving up the price [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: The price of the SHFE tin 2510 contract showed a pattern of first declining and then rising. In the first half of the week, it fluctuated downward due to macro - economic data and market sentiment. In the second half, with marginal improvement in macro sentiment and supply - side tightness, bullish forces strengthened, leading to a strong rebound and an overall price increase. The price fluctuated sharply, and the battle between bulls and bears was intense [3]. - **Variety Price**: The report provides detailed price data for multiple SHFE tin contracts, including opening, high, low, closing prices, trading volume, open interest, and other information. For example, the sn2510 contract had a weekly opening price of 273,340, a high of 274,900, a low of 268,010, and a closing price of 273,950 [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts were 7,326 tons, a decrease of 178 tons from the previous trading day. The cumulative decrease in SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts in the past week was 71 tons [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Aspect**: On the supply side, tin ore mining in production areas such as Yunnan in China has been continuously restricted, and some smelters continued their maintenance in September, constraining the output of concentrates and supporting the spot price. On the demand side, the traditional electronic solder field was weak due to the drag of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with lackluster demand growth for SHFE tin. The lack of demand led to light trading in the spot market and limited upward momentum for the spot price [8]. - **Macro Factors**: The year - on - year growth rate of the US PPI in August unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, and the core PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. This strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, weakening the US dollar index and providing some support for the US - dollar - denominated SHFE tin price [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook Given the rigid constraints on raw materials and maintenance plans, the smelter operating rate has dropped significantly, and there are no signs of substantial improvement in the short term. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the tin price is likely to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [10].

Report Overview - The report provides a weekly preview of key economic events and their potential impacts on the futures market from September 15 - 19, 2025 [2][3][5] Key Economic Events and Their Impacts September 15 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities at 09:30, and the report's impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation at 10:00, releasing macro - economic data such as fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and total retail sales of consumer goods. If 1 - 8 months' urban fixed - asset investment growth is slightly lower than the previous value, 8 - month total retail sales of consumer goods growth is slightly higher, and 8 - month industrial added value growth is basically the same as the previous value, the impact on relevant futures prices will be neutral. Expected 1 - 8 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment is 1.4% (1 - 7 months was 1.6%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of above - scale industrial added value is 5.7% (7 months was 5.7%); 8 - month year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods is 3.8% (7 months was 3.7%); 8 - month surveyed unemployment rate is expected to be 5.2% (7 months was 5.2%) [4] September 16 - The US Department of Commerce will release US August retail sales at 20:30. Expected August retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.5%); expected core retail sales monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value was 0.3%). A slightly lower retail sales monthly rate will mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise but mildly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices [5] - The Federal Reserve will release US August industrial output at 21:15. Expected August industrial output monthly rate is 0% (previous value was - 0.1%). A slightly higher industrial output monthly rate will mildly help non - ferrous metals futures prices rise but mildly suppress gold and silver futures prices [8] September 17 - The US Department of Commerce will release August building permits and new housing starts at 20:30. Expected August annualized total of building permits is 1.37 million (previous value was 1.362 million); expected August annualized total of new housing starts is 1.4 million (previous value was 1.428 million) [9] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 20:30, expected to cut the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% [10] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 12 at 22:30. If the inventory continues to increase, it will suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) will release the global metal supply - demand report, and its impact on relevant non - ferrous metals futures prices should be noted [12] September 18 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision, monetary policy statement, and economic forecast summary at 02:00, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. There is a 93.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut to 4% - 4.25%, and a very slight possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. If the monetary policy statement and Powell's speech imply continuous 25 - basis - point rate cuts on October 29 and December 10 (US Eastern Time), it will help commodity and index futures prices rise but suppress Treasury bond futures prices [13] - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [14] - The US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 at 20:30. Expected number is 270,000 (previous value was 263,000). A slightly higher number will mildly suppress industrial product futures prices (except gold and silver) but mildly help gold and silver futures prices rise [15] September 19 - The Bank of Japan will announce the interest rate decision at 11:00, expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield target unchanged [16] Other Factors to Note - Pay attention to domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials for their impacts on the futures market [2]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data continues to show resilience, with August PPI reading at -2.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economy [1] - Financial data is on an upward trend, supporting the real economy and investment environment, which provides significant backing for the domestic capital market [1] - The focus moving forward will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision, which currently has a high probability and is expected to positively impact global risk asset prices [1] Group 2 - The market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering short-term moving averages and reaching new highs [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index outperformed, indicating strong market elasticity, while average daily trading volume decreased to approximately 23,000 billion [2] - Market hotspots were primarily in the TMT and upstream raw materials sectors, with technology and small-cap stocks leading in gains [2] - The market is attempting to resume an upward trend after technical consolidation, with major indices recovering previous losses and reaching new highs [2] - However, there are concerns regarding declining trading volume and rapid rotation of market hotspots, suggesting potential market divergence and a focus on structural trends [2]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A sustained move under the 52-week moving average indicates the presence of sellers, potentially driving prices toward $61.12 and $60.26, which could trigger further downside momentum [1] - Overcoming the 52-week moving average suggests the return of buyers, with initial resistance at $64.56 and $65.41, followed by a swing top at $66.03, which could lead to a surge towards $68.70 [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent price increases in crude oil were driven by a Ukrainian drone attack that suspended crude loadings at a major Russian port, raising concerns about potential reductions in Russian crude exports [3] - Despite the temporary lift from geopolitical events, Brent and WTI benchmarks fell sharply, indicating market skepticism towards price rallies without substantial supply disruptions [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic indicators have raised concerns about demand prospects, with revised jobs data showing 911,000 fewer jobs created than previously estimated, alongside a 0.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index, the largest since January [5] - The combination of slower job growth and persistent inflation raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates soon, which may stall economic activity and reduce energy consumption [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 4th, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest, and a 0.29% decline in LME nickel. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, a decrease in nickel ore arrivals last week, and an increase in port inventories. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. The demand side showed a decrease in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with repeated expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Indonesian unrest, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on September 4th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated at a low level, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. The spot market had weak low - price trading, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. On the supply side, stainless - steel production will increase in September. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. At the cost end, the prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome have risen. Overall, the current macro - sentiment has a greater impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to previous days, with the near - month contract closing at 121450 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,598 lots (- 20,952), and the open interest was 82,558 lots (- 2,171). The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel contracts (electronic and on - site) decreased, with the electronic - disk closing at 15,236 dollars/ton, down 68 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 5,254 lots (- 645). The price ratio of Shanghai and LME nickel futures was 7.96, down 0.03 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products (such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel) decreased. For example, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract decreased by 50 yuan to 2,050 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were stable. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. Demand: Ternary production decreased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - SHFE nickel inventory decreased to 21,739 tons (- 121 tons), LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat at 4,100 tons [2] 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,009 lots (+ 11,460), and the open interest was 82,425 lots (- 4,439) [2] 3.2.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various stainless - steel products (such as 304/2B coil - trimmed, 304/No.1 coil) decreased in some regions. The low - price trading in the spot market was weak, and the basis premium widened [2] 3.2.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production will increase in September. Demand: Terminal demand is weak [1] 3.2.4 Inventory - SHFE stainless - steel inventory increased to 100,431 tons (+ 127 tons), and the 300 - series social inventory decreased to 622,700 tons (- 3,300 tons) [2] 3.3 Other Information - The US 8 - month "small non - farm" data was 54,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 people, and the previous value was revised up from 104,000 to 106,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased to 237,000, the highest level since June [1] - Centaurus Metals encountered unexpected obstacles in the development of its flagship Jaguar nickel project in Brazil. The company was informed that it needed to upgrade the power transmission to meet the long - term energy needs of the mine. The Jaguar project has 1.2 million tons of nickel content [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with sectors such as consumption, photovoltaic equipment, banking, and securities performing well, while aerospace, communication equipment, semiconductors, and electronic chemicals lagged behind [1][2] - The current A-share market is benefiting from favorable internal and external policies, with abundant liquidity and a noticeable improvement in market funding, as evidenced by trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days [1] - Global allocation funds are flowing into the A-share market, with household savings accelerating their shift to capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] Group 2 - The market is under short-term pressure from overbought conditions, necessitating a technical adjustment, while liquidity remains a key foundation for the market [2] - Future market directions to watch include the potential for a second phase of a bull market with rapid sector rotation, focusing on areas with low valuations and improving economic conditions [2] - There is an expectation for policy signals to intensify in response to economic pressures in the second half of the year, particularly regarding supply-side measures that could catalyze cyclical sectors in the medium to long term [2]