Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly hot - spot preview from January 26 to February 1, 2026, including important economic data releases and events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary according to the Directory This Week's Key Focus - On January 27 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for December 2025 and the cumulative figure from January to December [2][5]. - On January 29 at 03:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and policy statement, with an expected unchanged federal funds rate [2][12]. - On January 29 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 [2][14]. - On January 30 at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor will release the US PPI for December 2025 [2][21]. - On January 31 at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will release China's official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for January [2][22]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview January 26 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the 2025 business work and operation situation at 15:00. Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [3]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders for November 2025 at 21:30, with an expected rate of 0.5% (previous value: - 2.2%). A significant increase may suppress precious metal futures prices but boost other commodity futures prices [4]. January 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for December 2025 and the cumulative figure from January to December at 09:30. The annual rate in November 2025 was - 13.1%, and the cumulative annual rate from January to November was 0.1% [5]. - The US Conference Board will release the US consumer confidence index for January at 23:00, with an expected value of 90.1 (previous value: 89.1). A higher value may boost non - precious metal and crude oil futures prices but suppress precious metal futures prices [6]. January 28 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the high - quality development of state - owned assets and central enterprises in 2025 at 15:00. Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [9]. - The Bank of Canada will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy report at 22:45, and hold a press conference at 23:30. The overnight lending rate is expected to remain at 2.25% [10]. - The US EIA will release the change in crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 at 23:30. An increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11]. January 29 - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and policy statement at 03:00, with an expected unchanged federal funds rate. Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 03:30. Attention should be paid to their impact on the futures market [12]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the eurozone economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for January at 18:00, with expected values of 96.8 and - 9 respectively (previous values: 96.7 and - 9) [13]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 at 21:30, with an expected value of 205,000 (previous value: 200,000). A slight increase may slightly boost precious metal futures prices but slightly suppress non - precious metal commodity futures prices [14]. - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the US trade balance for November 2025 at 21:30, with an expected value of - $44.9 billion (previous value: - $29.4 billion) [15]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the monthly rate of factory orders for November 2025 at 23:00, with a previous monthly rate of - 1.3% [16]. January 30 - The German Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary GDP value for the fourth quarter of 2025 at 17:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted quarterly rate is 0.2% (previous value: 0%), and the expected unadjusted annual rate is 0.3% (previous value: 0.3%) [17]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary GDP value for the fourth quarter of 2025 in the eurozone at 18:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted quarterly rate is 0.3% (previous value: 0.3%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted annual rate is 1.2% (previous value: 1.4%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the unemployment rate in the eurozone for December 2025 at 18:00, with an expected value of 6.3% (previous value: 6.3%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor will release the US PPI for December 2025 at 21:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.2% (previous value: 0.2%), and the expected core PPI monthly rate is 0.3% (previous value: 0%). The PPI annual rate in November 2025 was 3%, and the core PPI annual rate was 3% [21]. January 31 - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will release China's official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for January at 09:30. The expected manufacturing PMI is 50.1 (previous value: 50.1), and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5 (previous value: 50.2). A slight increase may slightly boost commodity and stock index futures prices but slightly suppress treasury bond futures prices [22]. February 1 - OPEC+ eight oil - producing countries will hold a monthly meeting on oil - production policies. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and their impact on crude oil and related futures prices [23].

Group 1 - Gold prices surged significantly, closing at $4,936.17, with a rise of $105.61 or 2.2%, and reached a new high of $4,967.01 during early Asian trading [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.63%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.55% [1] - The U.S. economy showed resilience, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increasing by 0.3% for the second consecutive month after inflation adjustment [1][3] Group 2 - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight rebound compared to October [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000, with a four-week average of 201,500 [3] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [3] Group 3 - The Central Bank of Turkey announced a 100 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate from 38% to 37%, which led to a decline of over 2% in Turkey's main banking index [3][5] - The Turkish Central Bank has been on a rate-cutting spree, having reduced rates multiple times in recent months, indicating a shift in monetary policy [5] Group 4 - President Trump issued warnings to Europe regarding the sale of U.S. bonds, threatening large-scale retaliation [6] - Trump also discussed military access rights in Greenland, indicating potential geopolitical tensions that could impact markets [6] - The U.S. government plans to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, signaling escalating tensions in the region [7] Group 5 - The U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is expected to arrive in the Arabian Sea, indicating potential military involvement in the region [9] - Recent developments in Ukraine, including large-scale drone attacks and upcoming negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, are critical for geopolitical stability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market continues to consolidate with a focus on stability following the release of macroeconomic data by the National Bureau of Statistics for Q4 and the entire year, while geopolitical tensions abroad lead to volatility in capital markets [1] Market Performance - The A-share market shows strong performance in the precious metals sector, driven by rising risk aversion and increasing prices of precious metals [1] - Short-term market sentiment remains positive, with investors holding high expectations for the stock market in 2026, indicating a strong consolidation phase [1] Sector Highlights - Strong performances are noted in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronic components (CPO), and machinery equipment [1] - Significant trading volume increases in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 ETFs suggest a shift and adjustment in asset allocation by some investment institutions, impacting the performance of related sectors like banking and coal [1] Market Outlook - The short-term market is expected to experience strong consolidation, while the medium-term trend is anticipated to stabilize and rise [1] - Attention is drawn to changes in overseas factors, as well as shifts in A-share trading volume and sector hotspots [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The Q4 GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%, 0.05 percentage points higher than the previous value. The growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, with a month - on - month decline of 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40% [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators GDP - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates in 2025 were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The quarterly GDP growth rates were 1.0% in Q2, 1.1% in Q3, and 1.2% in Q4. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates were 5.3% in Q2, 5.2% in Q3, and 5.0% in Q4 [1] Industrial Added Value - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 5.9%. Among the three major sectors, the growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, and the month - on - month decline was 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] Real Estate - The cumulative year - on - year decline of real estate development investment from January to December 2025 was 17.20%. The cumulative year - on - year decline of commercial housing sales area was 8.7%. The year - on - year declines of new housing starts, housing construction, housing completion, and real estate development funds in December were 19.3%, 47.14%, 18.36%, and 28.09% respectively [1] Social Retail Sales - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 3.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The official economic report for China in 2025 shows a GDP of 140.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with strong performance in industrial growth and export recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP reached 140.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust economic performance [1] - Year-on-year growth of 5.0% highlights a positive trend in the economy [1] - Strong indicators include industrial growth and a rebound in exports, suggesting a recovery in key sectors [1] Group 2: Public Perception - There is a noticeable discrepancy between macroeconomic data and individual experiences, raising questions about the overall economic sentiment among the public [1] - The report prompts a discussion on how to interpret the economic yearbook when macro data does not align with personal feelings [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint In 2025, facing complex changes in the domestic and international economic environment, China's national economy withstood pressure, moved forward, and achieved new results in high - quality development under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the implementation of various policies, successfully fulfilling the main goals and tasks of economic and social development and concluding the "14th Five - Year Plan" victoriously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic Data - **GDP**: The annual GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase at constant prices. The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The Q4 GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter [5]. - **Industry**: The annual added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9%. The added values of the mining, manufacturing, and power sectors increased by 5.6%, 6.4%, and 2.3% respectively. The added values of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.2% and 9.4% respectively. In December, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month [5]. - **Services**: The annual service industry added value increased by 5.4%. In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The business activity index and business expectation index of the service industry increased in December [6]. - **Consumption**: The annual total retail sales of consumer goods were 501,202 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase. Online retail sales increased by 8.6%. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year - on - year and decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. The annual service retail sales increased by 5.5% [7]. - **Investment**: The annual fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485,186 billion yuan, a 3.8% decrease. Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [8]. - **Import and Export**: The annual total goods import and export volume was 454,687 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase. Exports were 269,892 billion yuan, a 6.1% increase, and imports were 184,795 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase. In December, the total import and export volume increased by 4.9% year - on - year [9]. - **Prices**: The annual CPI was flat compared to the previous year. The core CPI increased by 0.7%. The annual PPI decreased by 2.6%, and the annual purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% [10]. - **Employment**: The annual average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%. In December, it was 5.1%. The total number of migrant workers increased by 0.5% [11]. - **Income**: The annual per - capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a 5.0% nominal increase. After deducting price factors, the real growth was also 5.0%. The per - capita consumption expenditure increased by 4.4% [12]. - **Population**: The year - end national population was 1,404.89 million, a decrease of 3.39 million. The birth rate was 5.63‰, the death rate was 8.04‰, and the natural growth rate was - 2.41‰. The urbanization rate was 67.89%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [13]. Economic Growth and Business Climate Index No specific summary content other than the index names such as GDP quarterly growth rate, sub - industry GDP growth rate, and PMI index is provided [16]. Industrial Production No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as industrial added value, power generation, steel production, coal production, railway freight volume, and Keqiang Index is provided [18]. Import and Export No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as import and export amounts, growth rates, main export country growth rates, and export quantity and price indices is provided [23]. Investment No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as real estate investment, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate - related indicators is provided [25]. Consumption No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as total retail sales of consumer goods, automobile and petroleum product retail sales, furniture and building decoration material retail sales, and per - capita disposable income is provided [26]. Finance No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as M1 and M2 growth rates, M2 - M1 growth rate difference and CPI, loan and social financing total, and corporate and household medium - and long - term loan amounts is provided [32]. Inflation No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as CPI, PPI, and prices of pork and vegetables is provided [34].

Report Investment Rating - The industry is expected to move in a volatile manner [3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the sales progress in Xinjiang has reached 80%, with 20% of the cotton remaining. The futures price has reached the first target of 15,000 yuan/ton, and funds have reduced their positions by 110,000 lots. Considering the capital cost, it's about 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. Currently, there are 420,000 tons of warehouse receipts, and the inland delivery storage capacity is saturated and tight. The reduction in Xinjiang's planting area may be limited, but the demand for cotton in Xinjiang is expanding. Due to the rapid rise in raw material prices, the immediate profit of yarn has been significantly compressed, downstream inventory has increased, and the operating rate has decreased. With the Spring Festival approaching and the price difference of imported yarn widening, the futures need to cooperate with a short - term correction. Overall, it should be treated as a short - to medium - term decline or a sideways movement, but the correction depth is limited [5]. - For cotton yarn, it gets support from the raw material end, while there is no obvious improvement in orders from the demand end. Downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases, so cotton yarn will continue to follow the volatile market in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Xinjiang's sales progress is 80%, futures price has reached 15,000 yuan/ton, funds have reduced positions. There are issues with storage capacity, cost, demand, and downstream conditions, suggesting short - to medium - term decline or sideways movement [5]. - Cotton yarn: Supported by raw materials, but with no obvious improvement in demand, it will follow the volatile market [5]. 02. Market Review - Zheng cotton fluctuated sharply after reaching a relatively high level. The immediate profits of Xinjiang and inland spinning enterprises have been compressed, but the inventory pressure of finished products is not large. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises has decreased steadily, while that of Xinjiang spinning enterprises remains strong. After the decline of Zheng cotton, many spinning enterprises made point - price purchases based on the locked basis earlier. There is still rigid demand for cotton raw materials, and the hedging pressure above Zheng cotton is small. The industry expectations have been traded in stages. Attention should be paid to the actual reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026/27. If the reduction is large, it will be beneficial to cotton prices in the long - term. Also, if the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to widen, attention should be paid to the import of foreign cotton at a 40% tariff and the possibility of the state reserve releasing imported cotton [8]. - The sales of pure cotton yarn categories are clearly differentiated. Low - count and regular categories face prominent sales pressure, with actual transaction prices dropping or offering discounts of 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The market atmosphere is weak. However, the orders for combed high - count yarn are continuously good, with firm prices and relatively good order schedules [8]. 03. International Macroeconomics - In the US, data such as ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment, export and import volumes, trade balance, unemployment rate, CPI, PPI, and retail sales have been released. The Fed's interest rate decision is pending [10]. - In the Eurozone, CPI, PPI, and unemployment rate data have been released, and some data for January 19 are pending [10]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, new RMB loans, and some data for January 19 (including GDP, retail sales, and unemployment rate) are involved [12]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's January report, in the 2025/26 global cotton market, production decreased by 77,000 tons to 2.6004 million tons, consumption increased by 68,000 tons to 2.5891 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 1.6217 million tons [15][16]. - In terms of major cotton - producing countries, China's production increased, while that of India and the US decreased. China's demand is expected to increase, and other countries' demand is stable [16]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of January 8, 2026, the US has cumulatively signed 1.623 million tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, reaching 61.11% of the expected export volume, and has shipped 748,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 46.08%. China has cumulatively signed 85,000 tons, accounting for 5.26% of the signed volume, and has shipped 36,000 tons [20]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, an increase of 23.51% from the previous month and 1.75% from the same period last year. The industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased steadily. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 6.7685 million tons, an increase of 113,900 tons from last year and 435,600 tons from the previous month [23]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increased - In November 2025, China's cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.4% and a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0%. In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative import was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% [26]. - In November 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 25% and a month - on - month increase of about 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [26]. 10. December Cotton Yarn Output Increased Year - on - Year - In December, the price of pure cotton yarn was weak in the first half and then increased with the rise of Zheng cotton. The actual transaction of cotton yarn did not increase as much as cotton, so the industry profit shrank severely, especially for inland spinning enterprises, which had more production - limiting phenomena. The new textile project in Kashgar was put into production, and the spinning capacity in Xinjiang expanded further. The output of pure cotton yarn in December was 491,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. From January to December, the cumulative output was 5.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [27]. 11. US Cotton Weather - As of January 6, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected that the drought will intensify in the first quarter due to the weak La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter [33]. 12. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of January 15, 2026, 1097 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 30,650,301 bales of cotton, with a weight of 6.9188 million tons [35]. 13. Textile Industry Inventory - In November, the inventory of the textile industry was 4.084 trillion yuan, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 21 billion yuan. The finished - product inventory was 2.184 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 1 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing was 1.872 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 6 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 93 billion yuan. The finished - product inventory was 992 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 64 billion yuan [39]. 14. Domestic Demand Remained Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.17%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 45.6067 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [44]. 15. External Demand Exports Weakened - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% and a month - on - month increase of 8.89%. From January to December, the cumulative exports were $293.767 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.42% [47]. 16. US Clothing Retail in October 2025 - In October 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the inventory of US clothing and clothing accessories retailers was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48% [51]. 17. US Textile and Clothing Imports in October 2025 - In October 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 8.224 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.36%. The import amount was $8.414 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 18.79% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.82%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 87.005 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 0.63%. The import volume of US cotton products was 1.308 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 15.58%. The import amount was $3.419 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.65%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 14.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.82% [56]. 18. Warehouse Receipts Increased Rapidly - As of January 15, the number of warehouse receipts was 9,329, with 1,209 valid forecasts, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 10,538, an increase of 576 from the previous week [58]. 19. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decreased - As of January 6, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market were - 28,220, an increase of 1,614 from the previous week. The net long positions of non - commercial futures only were - 28,920, an increase of 2,037. The net long positions of commodity index funds were 54,110, an increase of 550 [62]. 20. Load Changes - As of January 16, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 62.10, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn was 47.50, the same as the previous week; the load of pure polyester yarn was 55.54, a decrease of 1.16 from the previous week. The load of yarn and grey fabric decreased seasonally [66]. 21. Industrial Chain Inventory - The cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 32.72 days, an increase of 1.32 days from the previous week; the cotton yarn inventory was 26.90 days, a decrease of 0.14 days from the previous week; the inventory of pure cotton grey fabric was 36.60 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week. As it enters the off - season of consumption, inventory begins to accumulate [70]. 22. Industrial Chain Profit - The sales of the pure cotton yarn market basically continued the previous week's trend, mainly with rigid - demand sales. The demand for high - count and combed yarn above 40S was good, while the demand for medium - and low - count yarn was insufficient. Spinning mills were under pressure. The theoretical cash flow (excluding depreciation) of inland spinning enterprises had a loss of about 500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit (including depreciation) of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was about - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of inland spinning enterprises continued to decline, and the inventory increased. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a high operating rate, and the inventory pressure was relatively small [75].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides views on financial futures in the bond market, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks [1][5] - The overall investment view is that Treasury bond futures will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short term [1][5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the Treasury bond futures will be in shock consolidation [1][5] - Although the macro - economic demand has strong resilience, there are still structural problems, and the effective demand of the household sector is still weak [5] - The future monetary and credit environment will still be relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in the future, but the urgency of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is weak [5] Group 4: Summary by Variety TL2603 - Short - term view: Shock [1] - Medium - term view: Shock [1] - Intraday view: Weak [1] - Core logic: The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] TL, T, TF, TS - Intraday view: Weak [5] - Medium - term view: Shock [5] - Reference view: Shock consolidation [5] - Core logic: The macro - economic demand has strong resilience but with structural problems, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, there is an expectation of an interest rate cut in the future, but the short - term urgency of a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the policy side releases positive signals again, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may need adjustment after continuous rise; the gold market is in high - level oscillation due to the game around the Fed's monetary policy independence and the Iran situation, waiting for a direction [31][32] - In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; the US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, the Fed's room for further interest rate cuts will narrow, and gold may face a deep adjustment [32] Summary by Relevant Catalog Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. Imports increased 5.7% and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 3.8 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. Industrial deflation pressure has been relieved [6] - In the US, in December 2025, the number of new non - farm payrolls was 50,000, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.4%, and CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year with the same increase as last month, indicating a slow recovery in the labor market but still high inflation [19] Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, China's broad money supply M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year (previous value 8%), M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year (previous value 4.9%) with the growth rate slowing for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened [14] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 267.3143 billion yuan, a record high. The central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 1712.8 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [29] Strategy Recommendation - The effects of the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies are gradually emerging. Commodity prices have risen, industrial deflation pressure has been relieved, and the profit of the upstream raw material processing industry is expected to improve [31] - Although corporate earnings have not significantly improved, the central bank's measures may boost risk appetite. After the continuous rise of the stock index, attention should be paid to the callback risk [31] - The US labor market is slowly recovering, but inflation risk remains. The Fed officials think there is no need for further interest rate cuts in the short term. The gold market is in high - level oscillation and may face a directional choice [31] Next Week's Focus - Important data such as China's December fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail [33]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges aims to tighten the financing environment for investors, potentially impacting market liquidity and trading behavior [2][8]. Macro Analysis - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved an increase in the minimum financing margin ratio for new financing contracts from 80% to 100%, while existing contracts will remain under previous regulations [2][8]. - In the U.S., the Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI both rose by 3% year-on-year in November, exceeding market expectations of 2.7%, primarily driven by rising energy costs [2][8]. - The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales in the U.S. reached an annualized rate of 4.35 million units in December, the highest level since February 2023, with the median home price increasing by only 0.4% to $405,400, marking the slowest growth in two and a half years [2][8]. Market Performance - A-shares experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.31% to close at 4126.09 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.82% [2][8]. - Sector performance varied, with gains in the computer, communication, media, and electronics sectors, while the banking, real estate, and non-bank financial sectors faced declines [2][8]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 4 trillion yuan, setting a new record [2][8]. - In the U.S., all three major stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down by 1% to 23,471.75 points [2][8]. Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis for stock index futures has decreased, with both trading volume and open interest for index futures increasing [9]. Strategy Insights - Historical data suggests that policy tightening can have a certain effect, but the current market is characterized as a long-term slow bull, making historical experience a limited reference [10]. - This tightening may lead to a "factory" type of market pattern, indicating a slowdown in short-term growth [10]. - If the tightening process is not smooth, large capital may exert pressure on the market through their holdings, particularly affecting the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices [10].