Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and the market's positioning around the 3500-point level [1][3]. Policy Impact - Trump's announcement to delay the "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1 is beneficial for sectors with high export ratios, such as automotive parts and consumer electronics, providing a buffer for companies like Luxshare Precision [3]. - The joint release of the "High-Power Charging Facility Construction Notice" by four departments is expected to boost the power grid equipment sector, with significant orders anticipated due to record-high electricity loads [3]. - The restart of national subsidy policies with 138 billion yuan funding is likely to stimulate consumption in home appliances, automobiles, and new energy sectors, particularly benefiting energy-efficient appliances and new energy vehicles [3]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3497 points, close to the significant 3500-point resistance level, with healthy trading volume of 1.47 trillion yuan [4]. - If trading volume remains above 1.4 trillion yuan, a breakthrough above 3500 points is possible; otherwise, a pullback to the 3450-point support level may occur [4]. - The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a five-year low, indicating a high probability of a directional move within two weeks [4]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 1.87 billion yuan, with growth stocks like CATL facing selling pressure, while main funds are quietly positioning in sectors like photovoltaics and power equipment [4]. - The issuance of 31 new funds on July 7 and a high number of private placements in June suggest a potential influx of capital into the market during the July-August period [4]. External Market Influence - The impact of external markets is diminishing, as evidenced by the A-share market's resilience despite declines in U.S. stocks due to Trump's tariffs on Japan and South Korea [5]. - The surge in copper prices by 10% is expected to positively affect the performance of related companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Investment Strategy - The A-share market is likely to oscillate around the 3500-point mark, presenting a good opportunity for medium to long-term investors [6]. - Key focus areas for investment include: 1. Power grid equipment and new energy vehicles, benefiting from clear policy support and deep capital involvement [6]. 2. Photovoltaics and power equipment, with high certainty of mid-year performance increases [6]. 3. Consumer electronics and automotive parts, with valuation recovery opportunities due to tariff delays [6]. - A strategy of "selling on highs and buying on dips" is recommended to optimize portfolio structure [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a strong and volatile trend, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. At present, the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are mainly operating stably, and the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong operation, with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short - term price of iron ore will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand for iron ore, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Guangzhou will implement the "commercial - to - public loan" policy to boost the real estate market. When the personal housing loan ratio of housing provident fund is lower than 75%, the commercial - to - public loan will be launched; when the loan ratio reaches 85% or above, preventive measures can be taken; when the loan ratio reaches 90% or above, it will be suspended [6]. - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June increased by 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month, and the cumulative wholesale sales from January to June were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Australian mining company Fenix Resources officially launched the mining of the Beebyn - W11 iron ore project. The project has a designed annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons and is expected to achieve the first shipment of iron ore in the third quarter of 2025, which will increase the company's total iron ore production capacity to 4 million tons per year [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,120, 3,160, and 3,244 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250, 3,140, and 3,252 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100. The volume - spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130, and the volume - spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 724, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 690, the sea freight from Australia was 7.04 and from Brazil was 18.93, the SGX swap (current month) was 95.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.10 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,076, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,086, the lowest price was 3,050, the trading volume was 1,776,150, the volume difference was - 595,134, the open interest was 2,237,249, and the open - interest difference was 10,870 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,208, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,217, the lowest price was 3,175, the trading volume was 694,556, the volume difference was - 225,872, the open interest was 1,595,284, and the open - interest difference was - 474 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 733.0, with a daily increase of 2.45%, the highest price was 736.5, the lowest price was 721.5, the trading volume was 452,146, the volume difference was 2,895, the open interest was 639,417, and the open - interest difference was - 8,458 [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production conditions (including 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation) [13][18][28] Market Outlook - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides have increased. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply and demand sides are operating stably. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [38]. - For iron ore, the demand shows good resilience, and the short - term price will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [38].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangming District has shown a sustained recovery in April, following a positive trend in March, with significant increases in both new and second-hand residential sales [1][3]. Group 1: New Residential Sales - In April, Guangming District recorded 449 new residential sales, a year-on-year increase of 78% [1][3]. - From January to April, the total new residential sales reached 2,139 units, representing a 148% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The inventory of commercial housing in Guangming District has significantly decreased, with a depletion cycle of 6 months, the shortest in the city [1][3]. - The overall market activity has been boosted by ongoing urban development, leading to increased visitor numbers and purchase rates [1]. Group 3: Second-hand Residential Sales - In April, second-hand residential transactions totaled 137 units, marking a 144% year-on-year increase [3]. - From January to April, second-hand residential sales reached 403 units, a 125% increase compared to the previous year [3]. Group 4: Price Trends - In April 2025, the sales price of new residential properties increased by 2.7% month-on-month, while second-hand residential prices rose by 0.5%, indicating a stabilization in prices [3]. - The overall trend in housing prices reflects a "stop falling and stabilize" pattern [3]. Group 5: Policy Impact - The national government has introduced favorable policies for the housing market, including increased housing provident fund loan limits and reduced interest rates on existing housing loans, which are gradually restoring market confidence [3]. - It is anticipated that the Guangming District real estate market will stabilize and enter a phase of moderate recovery by 2025 as the effects of these policies continue to unfold [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights a series of favorable policies announced by the central bank and regulatory authorities, including interest rate cuts and increased liquidity measures, which have led to a mixed performance in the A-share market [2][8][9] - The market's reaction to these policies has been subdued, attributed to factors such as prior anticipation of these measures, external geopolitical tensions, and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors like military and real estate [3][9][10] - The report suggests that the market may enter a period of observation regarding the effectiveness of these policies, with key variables including the pace of liquidity release and developments in US-China trade negotiations [3][10] Group 2 - The military sector has shown significant gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and government support for defense modernization, with expectations of continued policy backing and a stable increase in defense budgets from 2020 to 2025 [6][7] - The real estate sector is also highlighted as active, with recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including a reduction in housing loan rates, which may provide short-term boosts to the industry [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting quality companies within the military and real estate sectors, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential, while being cautious of broader market risks [6][7][10]

深圳市房地产中介协会统计的数据显示，4月深圳二手房录得量（以二手房买卖合同发起时间为口径统 计的数据，并非最终成交套数）为6597套，同比增长33.5%；全市预售新房共成交2845套，同比增长 0.7%。 楼市传统的"金三银四"刚刚过去，在一系列政策持续影响下，全国多地特别是一线城市的房地产市场延 续回暖趋势。进入5月，购房者对好房子、公积金房贷利率等新规和新政充满期待，多个政策"组合 拳"有望助力楼市延续热度。 成交量保持高位 多家机构的数据显示，今年4月北京、上海、广州、深圳等四个一线城市的商品房成交量继续保持高 位。 据北京市住建委的数据，截至4月28日北京当月新房成交近3137套，二手房成交近14066套。 据上海市房地产交易中心的数据，截至4月26日，上海当月新房成交近8737套，二手房成交再度突破两 万套大关。 广州市房地产中介协会发布的数据显示，4月（统计周期为3月26日至4月25日）广州二手住宅共网签 10312套。 分化仍是市场主旋律 除此之外，一些城市根据市场的变化，不断调整和优化相关政策。例如，中山市近日发布通知提出， 2025年5月1日至2025年6月30日，凡在中山市购买新建商品住房 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.152 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.64%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 246 million yuan, up 27.26% year-on-year [4][6] - The company has successfully launched new production capacities, which, along with increasing downstream demand, has significantly supported revenue and profit growth [6][7] - The D-alloheptulose product is expected to be approved for market entry, which could drive additional revenue growth for the company [8][10] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Thailand, which is anticipated to lower production costs and enhance profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 331 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.46% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63 million yuan, up 21.97% year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 313 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 81 million yuan, up 52.06% year-on-year [5] Production Capacity and Sales - The company successfully launched projects for 30,000 tons of dietary fiber, 10,000 tons of crystalline fructose, and 5,000 tons of D-alloheptulose, which have contributed to increased sales and revenue [7] - The main products, including prebiotics, dietary fibers, and healthy sweeteners, generated revenues of 322 million, 624 million, and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.43%, 40.42%, and 13.85% [6] Market and Policy Environment - The company is well-positioned to benefit from favorable policies aimed at promoting healthy consumption, which aligns with its diverse product offerings [10] - The anticipated approval of D-alloheptulose as a new food ingredient is expected to significantly boost domestic demand and revenue [8][10] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 338 million, 412 million, and 537 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [11]

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is showing signs of recovery as the peak sales season "Golden March and Silver April" comes to an end, with significant increases in transaction volumes and market activity [1][3] Transaction Volume - In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in first-tier cities increased by nearly 95% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, with Beijing's residential transaction area doubling month-on-month [3] - The number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached 32,662 units from March to April, representing a month-on-month increase of 26.52% and a year-on-year increase of 18.19% [3] - The transaction cycle for quality properties has significantly shortened, with some properties in core areas being sold within days of listing [3] Land Market Activity - The land market in Beijing is also heating up, with high premium transactions becoming more common. For instance, a plot in Haidian District sold for a record price of 102,300 yuan per square meter [6] - This trend indicates strong competition among developers for prime land, reflecting their optimism about the future of the Beijing real estate market [6] Price Trends - Overall housing prices in Beijing are stable, but there is a noticeable divergence in price trends across different regions and property types. The average price of second-hand homes in April was 44,454 yuan per square meter, with some core areas experiencing price increases [8] - New home prices showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.54%, with high-end projects in prime locations seeing significant price hikes, while some suburban projects are offering discounts to accelerate sales [8] Policy Support - Since September 30, 2024, Beijing has implemented a series of policies to optimize the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and reducing down payment requirements, which have effectively lowered barriers for buyers [10] - The first mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers has been reduced to 4.05%, and the minimum social security or tax payment period for non-local families has been shortened [10] Market Outlook - Despite the positive signs in the Beijing real estate market, there are still uncertainties regarding the macroeconomic environment and market inventory that could impact future developments [10][12] - Industry experts believe that the government will continue to support the real estate sector, and if key measures like interest rate cuts are implemented, market expectations may further improve [12] - The recovery may exhibit structural characteristics, with core areas and high-quality projects leading the market, while non-core areas may experience slower recovery [12]

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 摘要： 下周市场大概率以震荡小幅攀升为主，但热点依然轮动快，操作难度较高，真正的击球点还是要等待三个不确定因素的落地。 ------------------------ 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 近期市场呈现指数缩量攀升，热点轮动较快的特征，同时，每天尾盘前 ETF 的拉升也让大家担心如果无形之手不再参与，短期调整的风 险。 先说总体判断，趋势向好，等待三个因素的落地。 为什么说趋势向好？ 一方面，这次清明节和去年国庆节的市场走势，是一个情绪上的镜像关系。去年国庆长假积累的乐观情绪在节后开盘第一天集中爆发，打 出短期高点，这次清明节中的悲观情绪在节后第一天集中宣泄，打出 4 月 7 日 3040 的低点。而清明节和国庆节之后，市场都走了一波反 向趋势。 另外，美股在前期已经快速修复了关税问题打出的缺口，我们 A 股的主要指数距离回补缺口还有一段距离，只有少部分宽基回补了缺口。 但无论从绝对估值、估值分位，还是大幅调整后两边的政策力度，目前 A 股的性价 ...

Core Insights - The A-share listed securities firms are experiencing a significant recovery in 2024, driven by a series of favorable policies and a rebound in market trading activity [1][2][4] - Major securities firms reported impressive results, with many achieving year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [1][2] Industry Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of 150 securities companies reached 4,511.69 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1,672.57 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 21.3% respectively [2] - The self-operated business has become a crucial growth driver, with the industry generating 1,740.7 billion yuan in self-operated income, a 43% increase year-on-year [2][3] Company Highlights - CITIC Securities achieved a revenue of 63.789 billion yuan, up 6.2%, and a net profit of 21.704 billion yuan, up 10.06% [1] - Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and other major firms also reported significant revenue and profit growth, with Huatai Securities achieving a revenue of 41.466 billion yuan, up 13.37% [1] - Smaller firms like Hualin Securities and Hongta Securities showed remarkable performance, with Hualin's revenue growing over 41% and net profit increasing approximately 1015% [2] Business Segments - Brokerage and wealth management businesses are showing signs of recovery, with over 90% of the nearly 30 listed securities firms reporting positive growth in brokerage revenue [3] - The investment banking sector remains under pressure, primarily due to a slowdown in IPO activities [3] Future Outlook - The recovery in the securities industry is expected to continue into 2025, with anticipated increases in stock trading volume, financing balances, and equity fund issuance [4] - The trend towards higher asset returns and valuations for securities firms is expected to persist, supported by ongoing capital market reforms and consolidation among quality firms [4]