Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In August, industrial enterprises' profits increased by 20.4% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement compared to July and reaching a year-to-date high [1] - Cumulative profits from January to August showed a reversal from the continuous decline since May, with a total profit growth of 0.9% year-on-year [2] - The rebound in industrial profits is primarily attributed to a low base effect from the previous year, along with improved supply and demand dynamics driven by "anti-involution" policies [1][2] Group 2: Policy Impact on Nonferrous Metals Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a growth plan for the nonferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026 [2] - The plan aims to support high-end material innovation and green low-carbon transformation, which is expected to benefit the nonferrous metals supply chain, particularly in copper, aluminum, and lithium sectors [2] - The policy is anticipated to enhance market sentiment in related A-share sectors in the short term while promoting resource independence and industry upgrades in the long term [2] Group 3: Market Performance - On September 29, the three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.90% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.05% [3] - Non-bank financials, nonferrous metals, and electric equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 3.84%, 3.78%, and 3.07% respectively [3] - A total of 3,576 stocks rose while 1,657 stocks declined, indicating a positive market sentiment overall [3] Group 4: Market Activity - The market turnover reached 21,781 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day [4] - The margin trading balance reported at 24,244.58 billion, reflecting a decrease from the previous trading day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a +0.93% increase at the close. The trading volume increased compared to the previous period, the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. Overseas miners still have a strong willingness to support prices, and the supply trend of domestic mining areas is expected to gradually become clear. Lithium ore may continue to have firm quotes. In terms of supply, raw materials provide a certain degree of cost support for lithium carbonate prices. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and positive policy guidance, supply is expected to show an increasing trend. In terms of imports and exports, the volume of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile may decrease slightly after arrival at the port, so overall, the domestic lithium carbonate supply may increase slightly. In terms of demand, driven by the traditional consumption season, downstream orders and production schedules have been boosted, and the industry maintains a high growth trend. In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 46.02%, a - 1.3294% decrease compared to the previous period. The options market has an advantage in call open interest, and the sentiment in the options market is bullish, with the implied volatility slightly increasing. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double - lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 73,920 yuan/ton, a +1040 yuan increase; the net position of the top 20 was - 162,974 lots, a +11,116 lots increase; the open interest of the main contract was 251,749 lots, a +3109 lots increase; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 40,329 lots, a +20 lots increase [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan decrease; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan decrease; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a - 1090 yuan decrease [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 876 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 7,285 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 45,880 tons, a +1280 tons increase; the monthly import volume was 21,846.92 tons, a +8001.60 tons increase; the monthly export volume was 368.91 tons, a +2.56 tons increase; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 46%, a - 2% decrease [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly production of power batteries was 139,600 MWh, a +5800 MWh increase; the price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 61,000 yuan/ton, a +2000 yuan increase; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, a +1500 yuan increase; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 123,000 yuan/ton, a +2500 yuan increase; the price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 131,500 yuan/ton, a +3000 yuan increase; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, a +3% increase; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 57%, a +6% increase; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,391,000 vehicles, a +148,000 vehicles increase; the monthly sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a +133,000 vehicles increase; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 45.53%, a +0.54% increase; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 9,620,000 vehicles, a +2,583,000 vehicles increase; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 224,000 vehicles, a - 10,000 vehicles decrease; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1,532,000 vehicles, a +714,000 vehicles increase [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 27.32%, a - 0.26% decrease; the 40 - day average volatility was 41.46%, a +0.12% increase; the total call open interest was 226,551 contracts, a +4802 contracts increase; the total put open interest was 104,264 contracts, a - 738 contracts decrease; the put - call ratio of total open interest was 46.02%, a - 1.3294% decrease; the at - the - money implied volatility was 0.46%, a +0.0077% increase [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Four departments including the Ministry of Commerce decided to implement export license management for pure - electric passenger vehicles. Some enterprises in the new energy vehicle industry may over - inflate pre - sale orders, and third - party intervention and real - time delivery data disclosure are needed. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans to stabilize the growth of the automotive industry, optimize preferential measures for vehicle purchase tax and vehicle and vessel tax for new energy vehicles, and establish an access management system for assisted and autonomous driving. Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing the Growth of the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026, and strengthening resource surveys and explorations of copper, aluminum, lithium, etc. [2]

铝类产业日报 2025/9/29 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,730.00 | -15.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,904.00 | +3.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20.00 | +20.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -37.00 | -4.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,154.0, down 4.98%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. With the continuous recovery of mine capacity utilization rate for three weeks and some coal types rebounding, the operating rate of independent coal washing plants continued to rise. The cumulative growth rate of imports has been declining for three consecutive months, and inventories have rebounded for two consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,647.0, down 4.16%. After the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the current hot metal output is 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons, and the hot metal output is fluctuating at a high level. Coke inventories are higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1,154.00 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1,647.00 yuan/ton, down 45.50 yuan. The JM futures contract open interest was 825,807.00 lots, down 80,954.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 50,959.00 lots, down 1,729.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121,941.00 lots, up 15,608.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 5,112.00 lots, up 948.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 85.50 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 143.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 1,690.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,040.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coke at Tianjin Port Grade - 1 was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 116.00 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 18.00 yuan/ton, up 45.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 275,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.107 million tons, up 63,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01%. The raw coal output was 39.0497 million tons, up 0.951 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4.274 million tons, up 0.713 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 194,000 tons, up 4,100 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 4.9685 million tons, down 0.1847 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.5726 million tons, down 0.0354 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9907 million tons, up 0.5866 million tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 0.6304 million tons, down 0.0337 million tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills was 7.9607 million tons, up 0.0573 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 steel mills was 6.6131 million tons, up 0.1664 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.89 days, up 0.15 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills was 11.66 days, up 0.24 days. The import volume of coking coal was 1.01622 million tons, up 0.0555 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.055 million tons, down 0.034 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 4.08938 million tons, up 0.025 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.43%, down 0.44%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton. The output of coke was 4.2597 million tons, up 0.0742 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation (National) - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50%. The crude steel output was 7.73686 million tons, down 0.22896 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil had the highest global economic and trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries (regions), and the US had the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department joint plan aims for the average annual growth of the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry to be around 5% and the average annual growth of the output of ten non - ferrous metals to be around 1.5% from 2025 - 2026. It also emphasizes resource exploration and the innovation of advanced materials [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not passed in the UN Security Council. The UK representative said that the UN will re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The automobile trade - in subsidy policy in Jiangsu Province was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 29, the silicon iron 2511 contract was reported at 5610, down 1.23%. The Ningxia silicon iron spot was reported at 5360, down 90 yuan/ton. With the eight - department issuance of the non - ferrous metals industry growth - stabilization plan, the non - ferrous metals industry is expected to have an average annual added - value growth of about 5% from 2025 - 2026. In terms of supply and demand, production has rebounded rapidly after the previous profit improvement, with neutral inventory levels and short - term cost support. The market should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5820, down 0.78%. The Inner Mongolia manganese silicon spot was reported at 5600, down 100 yuan/ton. The adjustment of the automobile trade - in policy in Jiangsu Province has taken place. Fundamentally, production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, with a significant increase in inventory this period. The market should also be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5820 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holdings were 490,681 hands, down 10,402 hands; SF futures contract holdings were 323,191 hands, down 15,815 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 63,659 hands, up 4371 hands; the net position of the top 20 in silicon iron was - 29,445 hands, up 4077 hands [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 32 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 96 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 55,212, down 901; SF warehouse receipts were 17,031, down 342 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5430 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5694 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The SM main contract basis was - 220 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 760 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 447.80 million tons, up 20.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 44.18%, down 1.50%; silicon iron enterprise operating rate was 35.33%, up 0.49% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 206,430 tons, down 2345 tons; silicon iron supply was 114,500 tons, up 1400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons; silicon iron manufacturer inventory was 61,460 tons, down 1930 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; silicon iron inventory days of national steel mills was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - Manganese silicon demand of the five major steel types was 122,484 tons, up 1058 tons; silicon iron demand of the five major steel types was 19,865.90 tons, up 277.30 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50% [2]. - Crude steel production was 77.3686 million tons, down 2.2896 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil ranked in the top three, with the US having the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in added - value and about 1.5% in the production of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026 [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not adopted by the Security Council. The UK representative said the UN would re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, suspending the automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/9/29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 82,370.00 | -100.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 10,266.00 | +84.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 213,792.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a "Stabilization Work Plan for the Non-Ferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)" aiming for an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [4]. - The plan emphasizes orderly project construction and rational layout of projects such as alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate to avoid redundant low-level construction [4]. - The report highlights the need for stricter control over new alumina production capacity due to falling prices and profits, suggesting that the threshold for new capacity may be raised [4]. - Copper smelting is facing significant losses with current spot treatment charges (TC) fluctuating around -40 USD/dry ton, necessitating capacity control in the industry [4]. - The lithium carbonate sector is expected to stabilize as supply-side optimization is anticipated, with recent regulatory changes enhancing government control over lithium supply [4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with profit elasticity in the relevant sectors, recommending specific companies for alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate [4]. Summary by Sections Alumina - The report notes that alumina prices have dropped below 3000 CNY/ton, with average industry profits falling to 103 CNY/ton, highlighting the need for stricter control over new capacity [4]. Copper Smelting - The report indicates that copper smelting is experiencing significant losses, with treatment charges dropping from over 90 USD/dry ton to -40 USD/dry ton, leading to calls for capacity control [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The report mentions that lithium prices have fallen to around 60,000 CNY/ton, below the cash costs for some companies, and anticipates a stabilization in the sector due to increased government regulation [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies such as China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Xinjiang Zhonghe in the alumina sector; Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper in copper smelting; and Zhongmin Resources, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium in lithium carbonate [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry index in China has shown strong performance, with significant increases in various stocks, driven by a government plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the sector and rising gold prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 3.10%, with notable stock increases including Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) up 10.00%, Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 9.11%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) up 7.77% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 3.07%, with the latest price reported at 1.61 yuan [1]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to support the sector [1]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - East Wu Securities forecasts that copper prices will remain strong due to anticipated supply contractions and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate amid weak demand [1]. - The gold market is influenced by a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, with expectations of continued inflation and declining nominal interest rates, suggesting a broad potential for precious metals [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metal industry index includes 50 prominent securities based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the sector [2]. - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 50.35% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metal sector is driven by a significant policy announcement aimed at stabilizing growth in the industry, leading to a notable increase in stock prices for related companies in both Hong Kong and A-shares markets [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the Hong Kong stock market, several non-ferrous metal companies saw substantial gains, including Zijin Mining (+5.60%), Ganfeng Lithium (+5.37%), and China Aluminum International (+5.29%) [1]. - A-shares also experienced a positive trend, with companies like Yicheng New Energy and Boqian New Materials hitting the daily limit up, and Hengdian East Magnetic rising by 6.16% [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, released the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", projecting an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% increase in the production of ten major non-ferrous metals [3]. - The plan addresses current challenges in the industry, proposing ten initiatives focused on resource security, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and strengthening cooperation [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metal industry is showing strong performance, with a reported 7.8% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale non-ferrous metal industries from January to August 2025, outpacing the overall industrial growth [3]. - Analysts from various institutions express optimism about the sector's future, citing factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and seasonal demand increases in the aluminum and lithium markets [5].