1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to loose overseas liquidity and are recommended to be bought on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,500 in December [1] - Aluminum prices are supported by strong expectations despite weak domestic demand and low basis [1] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but supply may decrease seasonally at the end of the year, so it is recommended to wait and see; pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive spread opportunities [4] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, but the policy of Indonesia Nickel Association may lead to increased long - positions [7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are weak, but short - term prices are rebounding due to Indonesia's policy [11] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 and 17,600, and it is recommended to be cautious due to the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] - Tin prices may be volatile in the short term and can be a long - term multi - allocation in the first quarter of 2026, but there are risks of supply increase and demand weakness [16] - Industrial silicon's short - term price will fluctuate with cost, and in the long - term, it will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [19] - Lithium carbonate's short - term supply and demand are both strong, but demand may weaken, and there may be inventory accumulation in January [21] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices rose significantly due to the precious metal market and improved risk appetite. Domestic downstream is experiencing negative feedback, with the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods dropping seasonally and social inventory accumulating rapidly. Overseas, the CL spread is slightly narrowing. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,500 in December [1] Aluminum - In November, the import of primary aluminum decreased, while exports of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected. Automobile sales are poor and are expected to decline further after the subsidy ends in 2026, but photovoltaic installations are better than expected. Aluminum ingot and product inventories are accumulating, and apparent demand is decreasing. Although domestic demand and terminal consumption are weakening and the basis is at a multi - year low, low inventory levels support the current high prices [1] Zinc - This week, the LME zinc 0 - 3M contango remained volatile at - $28.26, which eases overseas supply - demand contradictions. Supply - side: Domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, and domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. In November, the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot was put into production, and in December, many smelters had maintenance, with a production decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons expected. Demand - side: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average, while US zinc imports have increased recently. The export window is opening, and domestic social inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and positive spread opportunities [4] Nickel - Supply - side: Pure nickel production decreased slightly. Demand - side: Overall demand is weak, but the premium of Jinchuan nickel is strong. Inventory - side: Domestic inventory accumulation slowed down, and LME inventory increased slightly. The short - term fundamentals are weak. The Indonesia Nickel Association said that the quota for next year will be 250 million tons (a 34% decrease from 2025), which has increased long - positions [7] Stainless Steel - Supply - side: Steel mills are maintaining high production. Demand - side: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost - side: Ferronickel prices are stabilizing slightly, and ferrochrome prices remain stable. Inventory - side: Inventory is at a high level. The fundamentals are weak, but the short - term price has rebounded due to the quota reduction news from the Indonesia Nickel Association [11] Lead - This week, lead prices rose with the macro - environment. Supply - side: Primary lead production is driven by profit, with an expected production reduction of 10,000 - 15,000 tons due to maintenance; refined ore supply is tightening, and TC has no hope of rebounding. Secondary lead production is resuming, and the output is increasing. Demand - side: The battery operating rate was high this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The lead ingot market has been tight since the end of September. Although the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, battery factories' high operating rate makes inventory accumulation difficult. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 and 17,600, and it is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low - warehouse receipts [13] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated upward due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation. Supply - side: Ore processing fees are at a low level with limited rebound space. Overseas, production in Wa State is recovering slowly, but high prices are stimulating inventory ore exports. Indonesia will resume normal tin ingot exports in 2026, with an expected export of over 6,000 tons in November. The peace agreement between Congo (Kinshasa) and Rwanda has alleviated short - term risks. Demand - side: High prices are mainly supported by rigid demand, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. There is a risk of short - term supply increase, and the fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. In the long - term, demand determines the upside space [16] Industrial Silicon - This week, a large factory in Xinjiang increased production by 2 units, Dongfang Hope entered the maintenance period and reduced 2 units, Inner Mongolia reduced 4 units, and Gansu increased 4 units. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate with cost. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rate, the price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [19] Lithium Carbonate - Affected by sentiment such as Tianqi Lithium's reference price switch and downstream processing fee negotiations, the futures price rose significantly. Raw material - side: The available supply is still tight, and lithium salt producers are less willing to accept high ore prices, with light trading. Lithium salt - side: Upstream producers mainly fulfill long - term contracts, and a small number of spot sales are at high prices, with inventory continuing to decline. Downstream - side: The futures price exceeds the acceptable range of material producers, and trading is mainly for rigid demand. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but demand is showing signs of weakening. The inventory reduction in December is expected to be 7,000 - 7,500 tons, and there may be inventory accumulation of 2,000 - 3,000 tons in January [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commodity market experienced a significant surge in precious and non-ferrous metal prices, with multiple products reaching historical highs, driven by various market factors and government policies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a record high of 709.85 yuan per gram, marking a 61.9% increase for the month [1]. - Silver futures rose over 8.5% during the day, closing at 18,658 yuan per kilogram, with a total trading volume of 267.69 billion yuan [3]. - Copper futures reached a peak of 99,730 yuan per ton, closing at 98,720 yuan per ton, up 3.60% [3]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 8.12%, hitting a new high of 131,000 yuan per ton since November 2023 [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in non-ferrous metals is attributed to a combination of factors, including a tightening supply outlook for copper and aluminum due to government policies aimed at optimizing traditional industries [5][6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, indicated by rising unemployment rates, has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated metals [8][9]. - Geopolitical tensions and conflicts have heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investment in precious metals as safe-haven assets [9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is expected to face supply constraints due to recent mining accidents and declining ore grades, which are anticipated to tighten the market by 2025 [12]. - Demand for copper is projected to continue rising due to global economic growth and technological advancements, further supporting price increases [13]. - The zinc market is also showing signs of recovery, with expectations of increased supply and demand balance, potentially leading to a new upward trend in prices [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the long-term investment appeal of precious and base metals remains strong, with firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup projecting significant price increases for copper by 2026 [15]. - The overall revenue for the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to grow, with a reported 9.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [16]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong resource reserves and integrated supply chains, while also considering a phased approach to building positions during market volatility [18].

Market Overview - A-shares closed higher on December 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07% at 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.27% at 13368.99 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.41% at 3205.01 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 189.98 billion yuan, an increase of 37.9 billion yuan compared to December 22 [1] Sector Performance - The energy metals, battery, glass fiber, electronic chemicals, and precious metals sectors showed the highest gains, while tourism, education, real estate services, aerospace, and software development sectors experienced the largest declines [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a collective surge, driven by rising precious metal prices, with silver futures increasing over 4% and reaching a historical high [2] Company Insights - Hongda Electronics, a leading company in high-reliability electronic components, saw its stock rise by 20%, with a reported earnings per share of 0.79 yuan and a net profit of 327.23 million yuan for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25.07% [3][4] - The company specializes in various capacitors and electronic components, with applications in aerospace, aviation, and military sectors, and has established partnerships in the 5G optical module field with leading firms [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing strong performance, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), seeing a significant jump in price and trading volume, indicating robust investor interest and market momentum [1][10]. Group 1: ETF Performance - Huabao ETF opened with a gap up, reaching a peak increase of over 2.9%, ultimately closing up 2.37% with a total trading volume of 66.51 million yuan, a 28% increase from the previous day [1][10]. - Since its low point on April 8, the ETF has surged by 89.68%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (26.51%) and the CSI 300 (28.48%) [1][10]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the non-ferrous metal sector, leading companies such as Baiyin Nonferrous and Yunnan Zinc Industry have seen significant price increases, with some stocks rising over 7% [2][12]. - The performance of industrial metals like copper and aluminum is primarily driven by economic cycles, while precious metals like gold are influenced by global monetary factors and risk events [3][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Zhongjin Company predict that non-ferrous metals will be in the "first tier" of upward trends by 2026, with major banks forecasting gold prices could challenge historical highs of $5,000 per ounce [3][14]. - Citigroup anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions [3][14]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage of various non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it a suitable option for diversifying investment risk [6][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment is not pessimistic due to the Fed's restart of Treasury purchases and the positive tone of the domestic Central Economic Work Conference. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the surplus pressure of refined copper is not significant [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to maintain range - bound fluctuations due to strong cost support and supply disruptions, as well as demand fluctuations and delivery pressure [6][27]. - Lead prices are expected to operate weakly in a wide range in the short term due to factors such as flat lead ore inventory, changing lead production rates, and low social inventory [9]. - Zinc prices may give back some gains after the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment, although there are factors such as zinc ore de - stocking and production cuts by smelting enterprises [11]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have an uncertain short - term outlook with de - stocking narrowing at the end of the peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term due to factors such as expected decline in ore prices, over - capacity in the smelting end, and approaching cost lines [21]. - Stainless steel prices are in a tight - balance pattern and lack a clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: US inflation data in November was lower than expected, the dollar index was stable, and copper prices fluctuated. LME copper inventories decreased, domestic electrolytic copper social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and the spot market had weak trading. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 91,800 - 93,800 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M contract in the range of 11,600 - 11,850 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum (Cast Aluminum Alloy) - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy main contract rose, with changes in positions, trading volume, and warehouse receipts. The price difference between contracts narrowed, and domestic and imported ADC12 prices increased. Domestic mainstream market aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased, while factory inventories increased [5][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are likely to maintain range - bound fluctuations [6][27]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also increased. There were data on lead ingot prices, refined - scrap price differences, inventories, and basis [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to operate weakly in a wide range in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price increased. There were data on zinc ingot prices, basis, inventories, and import and export conditions [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices may give back some gains after the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was affected by high prices, resulting in weak trading [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market had stable premium and discount. Nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices weakened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term Shanghai nickel price is expected to operate in the range of 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, while the futures contract price decreased. Production increased slightly, and social inventories decreased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lithium carbonate prices have an uncertain short - term outlook, and it is recommended to wait and see. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 103,000 - 109,600 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index was flat, with changes in positions. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import profit and loss was negative. Futures warehouse receipts decreased, and ore prices were stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose, with changes in positions. Spot prices in different markets had different trends, and raw material prices also changed. Futures inventories decreased, and social inventories decreased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stainless steel prices are in a tight - balance pattern and lack a clear short - term direction, so it is recommended to wait and see [24].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector in A-shares has experienced a remarkable rally in 2025, with an annual increase of 73.67%, surpassing the communication sector and leading the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant individual stock performances, with Srey New Materials (688102.SH) leading with a 340.01% increase, and several other leading companies like Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) and Xinyi Silver Tin (000426.SZ) also showing over 150% gains [1] - A total of 26 stocks in the sector have doubled in value, marking 2025 as a standout year for A-shares [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is currently 0.7 percentage points ahead of the second-place communication sector in annual growth, with only 12 trading days left in the year [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, the non-ferrous metal sector has never topped the annual growth rankings, achieving second place twice since 2000 but failing to maintain consecutive years in the top five [5] - The sector's past performance has been closely tied to super cycles in commodities and global monetary easing, with notable declines following previous peaks [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming year, 2026, poses a critical question: whether the non-ferrous metal sector will follow historical patterns of correction or break the "champion curse" [2][6] - The sector's high valuation levels present a challenge for continued growth, with the non-ferrous metal index reaching a historical high of 7499.07 points, approximately 17% below the previous peak in 2007 [6] - Analysts suggest that the performance of the sector in 2026 will depend on the dynamics of metal prices and demand, with specific drivers identified for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum [7][8]

Group 1: Precious Metals - COMEX gold price increased by 2.60% to $4,329.8 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [4] - SPDR gold holdings rose by 4.01 tons to 1,053.12 tons, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.93%, reflecting market reactions to monetary policy [4] Group 2: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 0.96% to $11,552.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper price increased by 1.40% to ¥94,100 per ton [2] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.41 million tons, ending a four-week decline, with total inventory up 4.07 million tons year-on-year [2] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises fell to 66.71%, with expectations of a rebound to 69.81% next week [2] Group 3: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.88% to $2,875.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum price decreased by 0.78% to ¥22,200 per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 11,000 tons from Monday and 12,000 tons from the previous Thursday [3] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises fell to 61.8%, indicating a weak demand environment [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices decreased by 0.68%, with expectations of a 20-25% reduction in monthly output due to environmental inspections [5] - The export volume of magnetic materials increased by 16% year-on-year, but decreased by 5% month-on-month [5] - The overall outlook for rare earth demand is optimistic, supported by strategic attributes and price increases [5] Group 5: Lithium and Cobalt - Lithium carbonate average price increased by 1.34% to ¥94,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide average price increased by 1.04% to ¥87,800 per ton [6] - Cobalt price decreased by 0.73% to ¥410,500 per ton, while cobalt intermediate CIF price increased by 2.06% to $24.83 per pound [6] - Nickel price decreased by 2.40% to $14,600 per ton, with LME nickel inventory down by 0.26 million tons [6]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating high market activity and potential for investment [12][34][62] Core Insights - Copper prices have shown a slight decline, but the overall market remains robust with increasing demand and production recovery [13][14] - Aluminum market is experiencing a turning point with supply constraints and stable demand, leading to potential price increases [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are stabilizing amidst geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting a favorable investment environment [15] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.80% to $10,695.00 per ton, while domestic prices fell by 1.23% to 86,000 yuan per ton [13] - Domestic copper inventory increased to 203,300 tons, marking a three-year high, with a notable rise in production rates among major cable manufacturers [13][14] - The demand for copper is recovering as prices decline, leading to improved order volumes and production rates [13] Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 0.90% to $2,862.00 per ton, while domestic prices increased by 1.53% to 21,600 yuan per ton [14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 622,000 tons, with a slight increase in production rates among downstream processing enterprises [14] - The aluminum market is facing challenges due to environmental regulations and seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is potential for recovery in specific sectors [14] Precious Metals - COMEX gold price decreased by 0.15% to $4,007.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing to 1,042.06 tons [15] - The gold market is influenced by ongoing U.S. government shutdowns and geopolitical risks, maintaining a strong but volatile trading environment [15] - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains positive, with expectations of price stabilization and potential upward movement [15] Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 4.23%, driven by heightened demand expectations following the suspension of export control measures [34] - The rare earth sector is expected to see significant price increases due to supply constraints and strategic importance in various industries [34] Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 6.89%, but the market outlook is improving due to potential recovery in export demand and stable domestic consumption [36] - The report suggests that resource scarcity and reduced global supply could lead to upward price adjustments in the future [36] Tin - Tin prices slightly decreased by 0.12%, but the market is expected to remain resilient due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and stable demand [37] - The report highlights the impact of regulatory actions in Indonesia aimed at curbing illegal mining, which may support future price stability [37] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.14% to 80,600 yuan per ton, with production levels showing a slight rise [62] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand growth, particularly in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors, which is expected to support prices [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: With obvious support from macro - sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term. Attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [10][11] - Zinc: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - Copper (CU2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95% compared to October 17. The spot price was 86,370, a weekly increase of 1,535 or 1.81% [8] - Aluminum (AL2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 21,225, a weekly increase of 315 or 1.51% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,130, a weekly increase of 170 or 0.81% [8] - Zinc (ZN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 22,355, a weekly increase of 540 or 2.48% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,818, a weekly decrease of 38 or - 0.17% [8] - Tin (SN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 284,300, a weekly increase of 3,550 or 1.26% compared to October 17. The spot price was 282,750, a weekly increase of 1,500 or 0.53% [8] - Nickel (NI2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 122,150, a weekly increase of 990 or 0.82% compared to October 17. The spot price was 123,240, a weekly increase of 460 or 0.37% [8] 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the increase in US consumer prices in September was lower than expected, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates again this week. Domestically, the macro - sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, and the price has increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is stable in the peak season with internal differentiation. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [10] - Viewpoint: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [11] - Later attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [12] Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price was strong. The import of zinc ore is still significantly loss - making, and domestic zinc ore is in short supply. The operating rate of galvanizing decreased last week. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased due to downstream enterprises' cautious purchasing. The overall domestic inventory increased, with different trends in different regions [13] - Viewpoint: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [13] Tin - Logic: In September 2025, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Indonesia's closure of illegal tin mines and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar have led to a tight supply situation. The domestic production and operating rate have rebounded, but the processing fee of smelters remains low. Downstream consumption in emerging fields is okay, but traditional sectors are cooling down [15] - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] - Later attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [15] 3.3 03品种数据（铝、锌、锡） Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The port arrival and departure volumes increased week - on - week and year - on - year [19][22] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the full cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [25] - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the regional price difference increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The operating rates of different downstream processing sectors showed different trends. The inventory in different regions and types also had different changes. The basis and monthly spread also changed [29][32][38] Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the imported processing fee decreased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the import profit and loss decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week and year - on - year [52][55] - Refined zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the LME inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [58] - Galvanizing: The output increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the operating rate decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the finished - product inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [61] - Zinc basis and monthly spread: The basis and monthly spread of zinc changed week - on - week and year - on - year [64][68] Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the combined operating rate increased week - on - week and year - on - year [73] - Tin ingot: The total inventory of SHFE tin ingots increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [76] - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [77] - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [79] - Spot price: The average prices of tin concentrate in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year [83]